The Latest Donald Trump Odds and Prop Bets

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Earlier this month, Donald Trump toppled Kamala Harris in his bid to return to the White House. Once he’s inaugurated in January, Trump will officially become just the 2nd president to ever serve 2 non-consecutive terms in office. Move over, Grover Cleveland, you’ve got company!

Before diving in, check out the 2024 Presidential Election odds and predictions blog for more insight into how we got here. And stay tuned for updates on the 2028 Presidential Election odds as we inch closer to that campaign season. Also, if you’re following other political markets, take a look at the Senate odds predictions for the latest analysis.

While the 2024 election is in the rearview mirror, that doesn’t mean your Donald Trump betting opportunities have evaporated. Far from it, in fact, Political settings sites still have a host of Trump-related prop bets available ahead of his upcoming inauguration.

Donald Trump Odds

Below is a breakdown of notable prop bets for Donald Trump, listing the favorite outcomes and predictions based on betting trends and expert insights.

Donald Trump Prop Bets

The following Donald Trump prop bets are courtesy of the top political betting sites:

Who Will Trump Pardon in His First 100 Days?

• January 6th Protestors (-1000)
• Ross Ulbricht (-500)
• Julian Assange (+250)
• Hunter Biden (+250)
• Steve Bannon (+300)
• Edward Snowden (+300)
• Eric Adams (+500)
• Sam Bankman-Fried (+1000)
• Young Thug (+1200)
• P. Diddy (+1600)

The odds heavily favor Trump pardoning the January 6th Protestors (-1000), a logical choice given his consistent support for their cause and his rhetoric about their actions being politically motivated. Trump has often referred to these individuals “patriots” and might prioritize this as a symbolic gesture to reinforce his loyalty to his base. After all, he’s the one that got them into this mess in the first place.

Other names in the mix are intriguing. Ross Ulbricht (-500), the founder of the Silk Road marketplace, has become a libertarian cause célèbre, with supporters advocating for his release. Pardoning Ulbricht could bolster Trump’s image among anti-establishment voters. Edward Snowden (+300) and Julian Assange (+250) are wildcards; both represent cases of whistleblowers who exposed classified information, and their pardons would appeal to populists but might alienate intelligence and defense communities.

Hunter Biden (+250) is another provocative inclusion, given the ongoing investigations into Biden’s business dealings. While it seems unlikely Trump would pardon his former political rival’s son, doing so could be a strategic PR move to demonstrate magnanimity. Finally, names like Eric Adams (+500), Sam Bankman-Fried (+900), and even Young Thug (+1000) reflect sportsbooks throwing in long-shot options for entertainment value more than realistic outcomes. SBF is the most intriguing name here considering Trump’s allegiance with many in the world of cryptocurrency, but it’s still a long shot.

January 6th protestors are a huge favorite at -1000, and with good reason. He’s expected to consider pardons on a case-by-case basis, so it’s fair to assume at least some of them will get a pardon. I think Snowden and Bannon are solid value wagers at +300, respectively.

Bet: January 6th Protestors (-1000)

Will Trump Remove FBI Director Christopher A. Wray in His First 100 Days?

• Yes (-240)
• No (+160)

At -240, “Yes” is the clear favorite here, reflecting a strong expectation that Trump will overhaul federal leadership early in his term. Trump has a long history of criticizing the FBI and its handling of investigations into his campaign and presidency, and removing Wray would symbolize a fresh start for Trump’s administration. It would also serve as a warning to other agencies to align more closely with his agenda.

Funnily enough, Wray has become a hated figure in Trumpworld despite the fact that Trump was the one who appointed Wray back in his first term in office. However, this time around Trump is expected to appoint loyalists to key positions within the government. We’ve already seen that with some of the characters he’s nominated to cabinet posts, and it’s fair to assume we’ll see a similar story with the FBI Director spot.

However, such a decision might not come without pushback. Removing Wray could reignite concerns about Trump’s approach to law enforcement and his willingness to politicize traditionally neutral agencies. The move could also have legal and reputational implications depending on how the removal is executed. Still, bettors are leaning toward this being a priority item for Trump, given his history with the bureau. Now that he’s been elected again, Trump also doesn’t have to worry about political repercussions.

The odds on “No” (+160) suggest there’s still some room for speculation. Trump might decide to avoid unnecessary controversy early in his term and instead wait to see how Wray handles his role under the new administration.

Bet: Yes (-240)

Donald Trump To Complete a Full Term as President

• Yes (-240)
• No (+160)

The odds strongly favor Trump completing his term (-240), which suggests sportsbooks and bettors expect stability despite the controversies surrounding his presidency. Trump’s health and political resilience are significant factors in these predictions. While he has faced numerous legal battles and significant political opposition, his core support base remains unwavering.

I would also expect Trump to face less opposition from his fellow politicians this time. His first term was marred by a pair of impeachments, though neither resulted in a conviction in the Senate. Democrats routinely tried to thwart Trump at every turn between 2016 and 2020. With Republicans controlling both the Senate and House of Representatives, it’s safe to say we won’t see another impeachment effort until after the 2026 midterms, at the very earliest.

However, there are scenarios where this prediction could be challenged. Trump’s legal troubles, including ongoing investigations and lawsuits, could pose risks. Additionally, political infighting within the Republican Party or external pressures from Congress could create obstacles to his full term. Still, his survival through past crises suggests that he is adept at navigating political turmoil.

The odds on “No” (+160) are worth considering for bettors who believe the legal or political landscape could change dramatically during Trump’s presidency. Any health concerns or unforeseen events could also play a role, though these seem unlikely given his apparent stamina on the campaign trail. This is a 78-year-old man, so anything can happen, but I expect him to complete his term.

Bet: Yes (-240)

Will Trump Be Impeached Before 2029?

• Yes (+600)
• No (N/A)

At +600, the odds of impeachment are long. Trump’s first term saw two impeachments, but his firm grip on the Republican Party and their control of key legislative bodies make another attempt improbable, at least in the near term. Democrats won’t have a chance to reclaim a majority in either house of Congress until 2026, so Trump won’t face much, if any, resistance from within his own party in the meantime.

For impeachment to occur, Democrats would likely need to retake control of the House and mount a strong case, which might prove difficult given the divisiveness of past efforts. Even if charges are brought forward, gaining enough Republican support in the Senate to convict remains a steep hurdle. The Senate refused to convict him for either of the first 2, so whatever he does to earn a 3rd impeachment would have to be pretty, pretty bad.

That said, Trump’s controversial decision-making and polarizing rhetoric could lead to calls for impeachment if significant scandals arise during his presidency. But the political risk of such a move might deter Democrats unless the case against Trump is overwhelming.

Bet: No Bet

When Will Trump Leave Office?

• 2025 (+700)
• 2026 (+600)
• 2027 (+600)
• 2028 (+500)
• 2029 or Later (-300)

The odds heavily favor “2029 or Later” (-300), indicating confidence that Trump will serve a full term and potentially leave office at the end of his presidency. Trump’s ability to retain control over the Republican Party and his influence among voters make this the most likely scenario. The last time a president failed to complete a full term after being elected was Richard Nixon, who resigned following the Watergate scandal in 1974.

Bettors interested in earlier dates, such as 2025 (+700) or 2026 (+600), might consider Trump’s legal troubles or a health matter as potential disruptors. Ongoing investigations into his business dealings and the New York criminal case could result in unprecedented outcomes. Additionally, health concerns—though not a current issue—are a factor to consider for any president in their late 70s.

“2028” (+500) is also an intriguing option, as it would align with the end of his potential second term. However, the overwhelming likelihood remains that Trump will leave office in 2029, assuming no major events derail his presidency.

Whether Trump actually leaves once his term is up in 2029 is another matter entirely, but it isn’t relevant to this prop bet. I don’t hate a flier on 2028 in the event something unexpected happens, but “2029 or Later” is the clear-cut choice.

Bet: 2029 or Later (-300)

Will Trump Create a National Bitcoin Reserve by 2025?

• Yes (+225)
• No (-350)

At -350, “No” is the clear favorite, reflecting skepticism about Trump’s alignment with cryptocurrency policy. While Bitcoin enthusiasts might hope for this outcome, Trump has previously expressed skepticism about digital currencies, referring to them as a threat to the U.S. dollar.

On the other hand, a case could be made for “Yes” (+225). As the global economy evolves and countries like El Salvador embrace Bitcoin reserves, Trump could view a national reserve as a way to modernize the U.S. financial system or gain support from younger voters and tech-savvy conservatives. Let’s also not forget that Elon Musk – a staunch crypto advocate – appears set to play a major role in the 2nd Trump Administration.

Whether Trump has his own actual opinions about crypto is worth debating. If he does ultimately create a National Bitcoin Reserve, it’ll be because one of the crypto bros in his ear told him it would be a good idea. Trump always listens to the last person he’s spoken to, so it’s possible.

The 2nd Trump term looks like it’ll be pretty wheels-off, so the value here is on “Yes” at +225.

Bet: Yes (+225)

Will the Two-Term Presidential Time Limit Be Repealed Before the 2028 US Presidential Election?

• Yes (+700)
• No (N/A)

The odds here stand at +700, making this an extremely unlikely outcome. Repealing the 22nd Amendment would require a constitutional amendment, which demands two-thirds approval from both the House and Senate, as well as ratification by three-fourths of the states. In the current political climate, achieving that level of bipartisan consensus is nearly impossible.

While Trump would try anything and everything to stay in power – as we’ve already seen him do once – getting this to pass will be a monumental challenge.

Trump’s influence within the Republican Party could help push this idea rhetorically, but the practicality of achieving such a monster change in a divided Congress makes this little more than a thought experiment. For bettors, this is more of a “fun” prop with little chance of fruition. There’s no “no” side to this bet, so it’s one to avoid.

Bet: No Bet

Will Trump and Melania Divorce Before the End of 2025?

• Yes (+900)
• No (N/A)

At +900, this is more of a sensationalist prop than a serious wager. The couple has faced intense public scrutiny over their relationship throughout Trump’s political career, with rumors of tension circulating regularly. However, both Trump and Melania have consistently presented a unified front in public, and Melania has remained largely supportive of her husband during his campaigns.

Given their long-standing dynamic and Trump’s value for maintaining appearances, it’s highly improbable they would divorce during his presidency. Bettors should consider this an extremely unlikely outcome unless something drastic changes.

Bet: No Bet

Will Trump Declassify John F. Kennedy Files Before May 2025?

• Yes (+140)
• No (-190)

The odds for “Yes” stand at +140, reflecting a plausible scenario. Trump has previously expressed interest in releasing the remaining classified files related to JFK’s assassination, though he withheld some during his first term due to national security concerns. Releasing these documents could be a politically savvy move to appeal to transparency advocates and conspiracy theorists within his base.

Whether this happens depends largely on political priorities during his second term. While it’s possible, it’s by no means guaranteed, especially if his administration faces more pressing issues. Trump had the chance to declassify the files during his first term, but he ultimately decided against it. I’m not sure anything will change and get him to reverse that decision in the future.

Bet: No (-190)

Will Trump Declassify the Jeffrey Epstein List?

• Yes (+400)
• No (N/A)

This bet, with “Yes” at +400, is another provocative prop. Trump’s ties to Epstein have drawn media attention, but declassifying any related list would come with significant political risks, as it could implicate powerful individuals across various industries. Doing so might score Trump points with certain segments of his base but could also ignite a firestorm of controversy.

While Trump has shown a willingness to act on high-profile issues for the sake of headlines, this seems unlikely unless he perceives a significant political advantage. Let’s also not dismiss the possibility that Trump himself appears on the Epstein list, which is something he wouldn’t want getting out into the public, obviously.

Bet: No Bet

Will Trump Declassify Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs List?

• Yes (+600)
• No (N/A)

At +600, this is perhaps one of the more unusual props. Its origins seem speculative and designed to generate buzz, as there’s no widespread discussion about Trump having the ability—or reason—to declassify any list related to Sean “Diddy” Combs. This is likely a fun prop bet without much basis in reality.

Bet: No Bet

Will Trump Be Sentenced to Prison in the New York Case Before Presidential Inauguration?

• Yes (+1600)
• No (N/A)

This is one of the longest-shot bets at +1600. The likelihood of Trump being sentenced to prison before his inauguration is exceedingly slim, especially given the complexity and slow pace of the legal system. Trump was found guilty in his hush money trial in New York City earlier this year, but his sentencing has been postponed on several occasions because of the election.

Trump’s lawyers are reportedly working to try to get the conviction thrown out in light of his victory earlier this month. While that seems fairly unlikely considering this was a state instead of a federal case, it’s also rather unlikely that Judge Juan Merchan will decide to impose a sentence on the guy who’s about to return to the White House.

No bet here, folks.

Bet: No Bet