2024 Nathans Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Predictions

On Thursday, July 4, the annual display of gastrointestinal fireworks is back as the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest returns to its traditional location of Coney Island, New York. However, unlike the last two decades, this year’s contest will be without its biggest star – Joey Chestnut.  

The 16-time champion was banned from this year’s competition due to signing with a rival hot dog sponsor. And, it was a plant-based brand to boot. Major League Eating, the parent promotion of the world-famous hot dog contest, claimed that Chestnut was in violation of their previously agreed upon provisions.

Not having Chestnut in this contest is like not having a finale at your local fireworks show or not having Michael Jordan playing for your team. Just ask the Chicago Bulls how they fared without Jordan when he was trying his hand at baseball. But don’t cry over spilt milk, Argentina or Chestnut because he will engage in an intense hot-dog battle with longtime rival Takeru Kobayashi on September 2.

As for the Nathans Hot Dog Eating Contest itself, the men’s competition is wide open. However, the Chestnut of the women’s competition will still compete. Nine-time champion Miki Sudo returns to defend her title as she aims to reach Chestnut’s rarified air of dominance.

Let’s lather up our ballpark frank buns with some ketchup and the latest Hot Dog Contest odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest predictions.

2024 Nathans Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds: Men’s Winner

The following Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds are for the men’s competition and courtesy of BetUS:

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Favorites

The following competitors are the odds-on favorites to win the Men’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest:

Geoffrey Esper +110

• Over 48.5 hot dogs (-110)
• Under 48.5 hot dogs (-130)

With Joey Chestnut banned from competition like a pro athlete getting busted for PEDs or gambling on sports, Geoffrey Esper becomes the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 edition of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

It makes sense as to why sportsbooks feel Esper is the favorite, considering his constant second-place finishes to Chestnut over the last few years. Additionally, Esper is the #2 ranked competitive eater in Major League Eating (MLE).

Last year, Esper finished well behind Chestnut with 49 hot dogs consumed. As you can see from the BetUS odds, his Over/Under of total hot dogs consumed for the 2024 competition is listed at 48.5 beef franks. The Under getting the slight-favorite status.

In 2022, Esper downed 47.5 hot dogs. His career best total is 51 hot dogs. Unfortunately, any time he puts up serious numbers, Chestnut crushes him and the field including the all-time record of 76 hot dogs in 2021.  

Speaking of Chestnut, Esper believes there will be an asterisk next to this year’s competition due to the GOAT of competitive eating not participating on Coney Island. However, the perennial runner-up also feels that this year’s contest will be more exciting because nobody knows who will win and what the total amount of hot dogs consumed will be:

“100% there’s gonna be a huge asterisk on that. Like two or three years ago, I said, ‘Well, even if I do win it because Joey’s not there, there’s gonna be an asterisk. I think it might be even more exciting this year because of how close the four of us are to the winning number.”

In his qualifier tournament, Esper ate 49.5 hot dogs. He looks in fine eating form and ready to make a run at his first hot dog eating championship. Esper has held or currently holds other records including 9.75 pounds of spam out of a can in eight minutes or 281 Buffalo wings in 12 minutes.

Looking at the Over/Under or 48.5, I think Esper is going to hit 50 since all eyes will be on him to take home the Mustard belt. Go with the Over, even if it’s by a dog and bun.

Bet: Over 48.5 hot dogs (-110)

James Webb +140

• Over 48.5 hot dogs (-135)
• Under 48.5 hot dogs (-105)

James Webb enters this year’s contest as the second odds-on favorite, just slightly behind Esper. In fact, depending on which sportsbook you look at, Webb can be found listed as the top frank-eating favorite.

Last year, Webb had a strong showing in the 2023 Hot Dog Contest with 47 hot dogs. That total was good for third place just two behind Esper. But the Australian also finished two ahead of Nick Wehry and four ahead of Bertley Weaver IV.

It was just the second time that Webb had competed on the biggest competitive eating stage in the world. He made his Nathan’s debut in 2022, and consumed 41 hot dogs.

Although he competes on a regular basis against Chestnut, Webb acknowledges who the GOAT is in competitive eating:

“Joey is the GOAT. He is the greatest competitive eater there ever will be. He is the best, he is the pinnacle. He has set standards that I don’t think will ever be lived up to.”

With that in mind, Webb has his sights set on breaking the 50 hot dog mark and capturing the Mustard Championship belt.

This Over/Under is a bit tight for my liking. In fact, it’s almost like BetUS is shoving these odds down our throats just like they were hot dogs and soggy buns. I think Webb is going to come in at 48 or 48.5 hot dogs for this competition. So, the safe play here is Under 48.5.

Too bad this isn’t a donut eating contest. Webb’s record mark for glazed donuts consumed is 70 in an eight-minute span. He also has a record for 350 donut holes eaten in an eight-minute span. Could we be looking at the next Donut King?  

Bet: Under 48.5 hot dogs (-105)

Nick Wehry +300

• Over 45.5 hot dogs (-120)
• Under 45.5 hot dogs (-120)

The #4 ranked MLE eater is the bodybuilder turned competitive eater. Or better known to hot dog contest enthusiasts as Mr. Miki Sudo. Married in real life to the women’s Goat, Sudo, the happy couple have a blog where you can follow along with all of their competitive eating adventures.

I’m also sure that they’re raising a future world champion as their son Max will grow up to threaten all of Chestnut’s records. How can he not?

Last year, Wehry set a personal best mark of 45 hot dogs consumed. Prior to that, his best was 44.5 hot dogs in 2021. Looking over his career numbers, 69 tacos in eight minutes is rather impressive. I certainly won’t be inviting the Wehry family over to any Taco Tuesdays at my house.

As for this year’s competition, Wehry was sad that his good friend Chestnut won’t be involved. However, he’s very excited for the unknown of the 2024 Hot Dog Contest:

“Joey’s a dear friend, and he’s probably the best to ever do, do, do. With that said, his numbers have gone down progressively throughout the last few years. Who knows where he may have landed this year? But I think it’s really exciting to see probably five guys having a legitimate shot at the title, maybe six.”

Can Wehry set another career best mark with 46 hot dogs? I don’t think he will. I expect the Under 45.5 hot dogs to be the smart play here.

Bet: Under 45.5 hot dogs (-120)

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Value

Bartley Weaver IV presents solid betting value with his +900 odds. The #7 ranked competitive eater finished 5^th last year with 41 total hot dogs. It was the second time that he’s qualified for this competition. In 2022, he ate 29 hot dogs in his Nathan’s Contest debut.

Before venturing into competitive eating, Weaver was a bodybuilder, football player and also competed on the hit series “The Titan Games.” Additionally, he was a Kentucky State Police officer and is expanding his acting chops.

With that said, Weaver is still growing as a competitive eater. Although he’s a solid 275 pounds, Weaver has yet to crack the Top 3 at Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Will this be the first time he makes the Top 3 on Coney Island?

If any of the other eaters regurgitate their food, gets disqualified, or falters in the spotlight without Chestnut there, Weaver could steal the Mustard belt. As for his total, I like Weaver to go Over 39.5 hot dogs. I think he breaks his all-time mark of 41 and pushes for 42 or 43.

 Bet: Over 39.5 hot dogs (-125)

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Sleeper

Gideon Oji is the #6 ranked eater and a longshot to win this contest at +2000 odds. Last year, he finished in 6^th place with 36 hot dogs consumed. Oji is a former basketball player who stands at 6 feet, 9-inches tall. He’s been competing on the world’s best stage for nearly a decade now. In addition to hot dogs, Oji has consumed massive amounts of other food including 10 pounds of baked beans in 1:45.

Oji really became a house-hold name during the quarantine when BetOnline was doing “quarantine challenges”. The unique concept was a hit among bettors and fans.

The former basketball player earned his spot in the 2024 Hot Dog Contest by eating 35 hot dogs at the Times Square Qualifier in May. Anything can happen in this year’s contest now that the GOAT is banned.

With that said, although this gastrointestinal giant is my sleeper pick, I don’t see him consuming more than 38 hot dogs. So, go with the Under 38.5 at -120 odds.

Bet: Under 38.5 hot dogs (-120)

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Prediction: Men’s Winner

Without Chestnut, this competition is going to be exciting as numerous men all have a real chance to win their first Mustard belt. In fact, the women’s GOAT Miki Sudo shared her comments about this year’s contest without Chestnut and why it will be even more exciting:

“This year, we get to see five or six people with really close numbers, still high numbers in the 50s and 60s, and that’s still an elite level, it’s not normal, so it’ll be a fair, elite contest. It’s a six-horse race where you literally might be biting your nails not knowing who is going to win until the very end, I think that’s going to make for a super contest.”

I agree with Sudo for the most part. However, I think it will only be a four-horse race. I expect Esper, Webb, Wehry and Weaver to all be within 6-to-8 hot dogs of each other. That’s going to make for some compelling television as they’re all cramming down the dogs with time running out.

Wehry and Weaver would have to set career best marks to consume more than Esper. Although possible, I don’t expect these bodybuilders to do so. Webb is the one competitor to realistically threaten Esper on America’s birthday. However, I think Oxford, MA’s beloved son will hold on to win this year’s contest. It’s his time to shine without Chestnut taking the spotlight.

Bet: Geoffrey Esper (+110)

Men’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winning Total

• Over 50.5 hot dogs (-115)
• Under 50.5 hot dogs (-125)

I don’t see this year’s competition putting up staggering numbers. Esper’s career best was 51 and I don’t believe he will duplicate or beat that mark. Instead, I think 49.5 to 50 hot dogs will be the winning amount.

Bet: Under 50.5 hot dogs (-125)

Men’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winning Margin

• Over 1.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (-165)
• Under 1.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (+120)

This Hot Dog Contest prop bet is more challenging than what the odds indicate. Sure, Esper has beaten Webb and Wehry by multiple hot dogs over the last few years. But this year’s contest will be different. I expect it to be closer as the top competitors all believe they can win without Chestnut there.

I’m taking the under for this prop bet. I think Esper wins with a total of 49 to 50 hot dogs but Webb surprises with 48.5 total dogs consumed.

Bet: Under 1.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (+120)

2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds: Women’s Winner

The following Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds are for the women’s competition:

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Favorites

The following competitors are the odds-on favorites to win the Women’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest:

Miki Sudo -3000

• Over 42.5 Hot Dogs (-110)
• Under 42.5 Hot Dogs (-130)        

It’s time that we start giving Miki Sudo her props. For over a decade, we’ve hailed Joey Chestnut as the best eater of all-time. Yet, in his shadows has been Sudo who’s quietly gone on to win nine world titles.

In fact, if she wasn’t pregnant with a future world champion competitive eater in 2021, Sudo would have won 10 straight contests. As it stands, she’s won nine of the last 10, ever since dethroning Sonya Thomas in 2014. Prior to that, Thomas was the women’s top competitive eater.

Sudo’s hot dog numbers aren’t as staggering as the men. However, she’s still destroying the competition just like Chestnut has done. Let’s take a look at how Sudo has dominated the competition and the vast difference between her winning totals compared to the second-place contestant:

• 2023: Sudo 39.5 > Ebihara 33.5
• 2022: Sudo 40 > Lesco 26
• 2020: Sudo 48.5 > Mele 18
• 2019: Sudo 31 > Lesco 26.5
• 2018: Sudo 37 > Lesco 28
• 2017: Sudo 41 > Lesco 32
• 2016: Sudo 38.5 > Thomas 35
• 2015: Sudo 38 > Thomas 31
• 2014: Sudo 34 > Thomas 27.75

The closest anyone has come to stopping Sudo was in 2016, when the former 3-time champ Sonya Thomas lost by 3.5 dogs. With that in mind, there’s no way that the #3 ranked competitive eater doesn’t destroy the competition once again.

A quick glance at her eating records is enough to make you want to throw up in your mouth. In 2023, Sudo ate 368 steamed fish balls in eight minutes. She also loves her desserts as well. Sudo smashed 16.5 pints of vanilla ice cream back in 2017.

In regards to her Over/Under of 42.5 hot dogs for this year’s competition, take the Under. The only time Sudo has ever surpassed 42 hot dogs was in 2020, when she set the world record with 48.5 hot dogs consumed. The previous all-time mark was 45 hot dogs by Thomas in 2012. I think Sudo cruises to victory with a max of 40 hot dogs eaten. 

Bet: Under 42.5 Hot Dogs (-130)              

Mayoi Ebihara +750

• Over 34.5 Hot Dogs (-115)
• Under 34.5 Hot Dogs (-125)

Mayoi Ebihara burst onto the competitive eating scene last year like our pants would be bursting if we ate 30 hot dogs at a 4^th of July BBQ. Ebihara might be younger and newer than most of the ranked eaters in the women’s division, but she has some serious skills.

In her Hot Dog Contest debut, Ebihara finished with 33.5 hot dogs eaten. The barefoot, Japanese competitor made a mark on this competition like spilt ketchup on my shirt after two dogs and a soda.

What’s impressive about that total is that only one other woman, outside of Thomas and Sudo, has ever eaten that many dogs in a competition – Juliet Lee in 2013. She finished second to Thomas with 36 total dogs consumed. Lee lost out by ¾ of a dog, which is the closest finish in the history of the women’s competition.

Other highlights of Ebihara’s eating career have seen her consume 15.5 pounds of curry and 220 pieces of sushi. I think we are looking at Sudo’s biggest challenger. I’m taking Ebihara, the 14^th ranked eater in the world, to finish with over 34.5 hot dogs eaten. I think she hits the 35 mark this year and continues to build her legacy.

Bet: Over 34.5 Hot Dogs (-115)

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Value

Michelle Lesco (+1200) is the only other woman to have ever won a Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest outside of Sudo and Thomas. In 2021, when Sudo was not medically cleared to compete due to pregnancy, Lesco won the competition with 30 total hot dogs eaten.

That wasn’t even Lesco’s best mark. In 2017, Lesco set a personal record with 32 hot dogs consumed. Unfortunately, Sudo finished with 41 hot dogs eaten that year. Yet, Lesco did surpass both Juliet Lee and Sonya Thomas to establish herself as the second-best women’s hot dog competitor.

Unfortunately, since winning the Pink belt in 2021, Lesco’s numbers have dropped. She finished with 26 dogs in 2022, and 24 hot dogs last year. Now that she’s in her 40s, it appears that Lesco’s time as Sudo’s top competitor has come to an end.

Yet, if Sudo or Ebihara struggle or get disqualified, the 10^th ranked competitive eater still has the skills and championship experience to claim one more Pink title.

As for the Over/Under of Lesco’s total dogs consumed, take the Under 29.5. There’s no way she’s creeping back up into the 30s after a steady decline in results over the past few years.

Bet: Under 29.5 hot dogs (-115)

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Sleeper

Larell Marie Mele is realistically the only sleeper pick in this competition with +2200 odds. Unless this year’s competition has another Ebihara, Mele is the last woman listed as a competitor that has any shot at winning. And, it’s really no shot at all.

Mele is ranked 22^nd in the world, but her hot dog numbers are well below the top women of this competition. It would take a mass reversal of fortune with the Top 3 competitors before Mele has a shot.

In 2023, Mele finished with 13.25 hot dogs, which resulted in a fourth-place finish. Her career best mark came in 2012, when she finished with 21.25 dogs and buns. Mele has also consumed 18 hot dogs on two different occasions. In 2020, Mele finished second in the Hot Dog Eating contest as Lesco, Lee and Thomas didn’t compete.

With that said, you have to give Mele credit for still competing after all these years. She’s getting up into her late-50s and is the longest running female competitor. If you are the kind of bettor that needs a sleeper or longshot to take a flier on then Mele is your bet.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Prediction: Women’s Winner

Unlike the men’s competition, the women’s contest is a foregone conclusion. Miki Sudo will win her 10^th Hot Dog contest. The only question is how much will she win by, which we’ll examine in more detail below.

Sudo is the greatest women’s competitive eater of all-time. With each passing year, she continues to expand on her legacy. From this point forward, it’s time to mention Sudo in the same sentence and breath as Chestnut when we’re talking about the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.  

Bet: Miki Sudo -3000

Women’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winning Total

• Over 42.5 Hot Dogs (-110)
• Under 42.5 Hot Dogs (-130)

As I mentioned above, Sudo has only ever consumed 40 or more hot dogs on three occasions. And, she’s only consumed more than 42 hot dogs one time. That one time happened to be when she set the all-time record of 48.5 hot dogs in 2020.

Considering Sudo is a “lock” to win this competition, you have to examine her numbers for this prop bet. Additionally, it’s the same odds listed for Sudo’s Over/Under of 42.5 total dogs eaten. I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again, Sudo will finish with less than 42.5 hot dogs. So, take the Under for this prop bet.

Bet: Under 42.5 Hot Dogs (-130)

Women’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winning Margin

• Over 6.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (+110)
• Under 6.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (-150)

This hot dog eating prop bet is trickier than the ones above. In her nine championships, Sudo has defeated the second-place eater by 6.5 hot dogs or more on five of those occasions. However, she only beat Ebihara by six last year.

I believe Sudo will consume 40 hot dogs max this year. I also believe that Ebihara will eat at least 35 hot dogs. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if she joined the 36+ hot dog club.

For this prop bet, take the Under as Sudo will not win by more than six hot dogs in the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Bet: Under 6.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (-150)

2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Prop Bets

The following Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest prop bets span both the men and women competitions:

Total Hot Dogs Eaten By Both Winners Combined

• Over 91.5 Hot Dogs (-110)
• Under 91.5 Hot Dogs (-130)

As mentioned above, I’m predicting Sudo to eat a maximum of 40 hot dogs on July 4^th. That means the men’s winner would have to consume at least 52 hot dogs for this prop bet to hit the Over. Esper’s career best mark is 51 hot dogs. None of the other men have ever consumed 50 hot dogs in a contest.

I don’t see any male competitor surpassing the 50 hot dogs mark this holiday. Instead, I think 49 hot dogs is the top mark for the men’s contest this year. This means Sudo would have to consume 43 hot dogs for the Over to hit. She’s only ever done that one time.

The Under is the smart play here. And, with -130 odds, there’s still some solid value before the sportsbooks realize they made a mistake.

Bet:  Under 91.5 Hot Dogs (-130)

Will James Webb Eat More Hot Dogs Than Miki Sudo?

• Yes (-300)
• No (+200)

If Sudo hits the 40 hot dogs mark this year, Webb should still easily surpass her total. In his two years of competing in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, Webb has averaged 44 hot dogs eaten. He finished with 47 last year and 41 in his 2022 debut. Sudo has only surpassed the 41 hot dog mark on one occasion, which was her 48.5 world record performance.

I think Webb will come close to his 47 hot dogs total of last year, possibly surpassing that career-best performance with 48 total hot dogs consumed this year. Sudo will finish with around 40 total dogs eaten, which means Webb should easily win this bet by at least seven hot dogs.

Bet: Yes (-300)