Joe Biden Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions

The 2024 US presidential election is still several months away, but it’s never too early to get those bets placed. Frankly, the state of the race has never been more uncertain than it is now on the heels of President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in the first debate against Republican challenger Donald Trump.

The president has, thus far, resisted calls to drop out of the race. However, the questions about Biden’s physical and mental health aren’t going anywhere. Unless he finds a way to pioneer anti-aging technology, something tells me things won’t be getting any easier for the 81-year-old moving forward.

Could Biden drop out of the race? Or will the Democrats find a way to rally around the incumbent ahead of Election Day in November? Political betting sites have a slew of Biden prop bets available and ready for your perusal.

Below, I’ll break down the latest Joe Biden odds and prop bets.

Democratic Nominee Odds

Biden remains the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, largely due to his incumbency and established political presence. His policies and administration’s accomplishments play a significant role in his favorable odds. The administration’s focus on infrastructure, climate change, and economic recovery from the pandemic are key pillars that reinforce Biden’s position. His long career in politics provides a depth of experience that few can match.

Conversely, the +150 odds for any other candidate suggest there is a very real chance someone else will take over. This scenario could materialize if Biden decides not to run, faces health issues, or if a significant political scandal were to arise. However, the Democratic Party generally tends to coalesce around an incumbent president, making Biden the safer bet for now.

There are several potential contenders who could step in if Biden does not run, each bringing their own strengths and weaknesses to the table. The dynamics within the Democratic Party are complex, with various factions supporting different candidates based on ideological lines, experience, and electability. This makes the “Any Other Candidate” bet an intriguing option for those who believe the unexpected could happen at +150 odds.

Democratic Nominee Contenders

Joe Biden (-200)

The odds are heavily in favor of Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election. With a -200 betting line, Biden is the clear-cut favorite. However, there’s more fragility in that line than there was a week ago at this time.

Biden’s age is the biggest stumbling block in his re-election bid. His incredibly horrific showing on the debate stage against Trump only exacerbated fears that he is no longer fit to serve in the most demanding job on the planet. Because he has already secured enough delegates to clinch the Democratic Party’s nomination, however, Biden remains a fairly heavy -200 favorite to be atop the ticket this November.

Biden will have to be the one to decide whether to bow out of the race. The party can’t simply force him to abandon his campaign if he has no plans to do so.

Gavin Newsom (+425)

California Governor Gavin Newsom has odds of +425, making him the second most likely candidate after Biden. Newsom’s national profile and progressive policies could appeal to a broad spectrum of Democratic voters.

His handling of California’s economy, environmental policies, and social issues has garnered both praise and criticism, but his ability to navigate complex political landscapes makes him a formidable candidate. Newsom also trounced a GOP-backed recall effort that threatened to boot him from the governorship back in 2021.

Newsom will undoubtedly run for president at some point in the future. Frankly, I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t launch a campaign for 2028. In public, Newsom remains one of Biden’s most loyal surrogates. He’s also a staunch supporter of his fellow Californian, Kamala Harris.

If Harris shows a desire to step into a potential Biden void, I’m not so sure Newsom would want to get in the way. It’s also worth noting that a presidential ticket can’t be comprised of two people from the same state, which rules out a hypothetical Harris-Newsom ticket.

Newsom’s +425 odds to become the Democratic nominee are too short, in my opinion.

Kamala Harris (+550)

Vice President Kamala Harris is a notable contender, with odds of +550. Her position as the current Vice President gives her significant visibility, making her the natural primary alternative should Biden decide not to run. Harris has been an active participant in key policy areas, including immigration and voting rights, and her background as a former senator and attorney general adds to her credentials.

There has been some speculation that Harris could be passed over entirely if Biden bows out. This can be attributed to fears over whether Harris would really stand a better chance than Biden of defeating Trump in November.

Harris’ own presidential campaign notoriously flamed out back in 2020 before she agreed to join Biden’s ticket as the first-ever female VP. If voters declined to support her back then, are they any more likely to back her 4 years later?

I do think the +550 election odds for Harris are alluring, however. The Democratic Party has a history of utilizing the “next in line” approach when it comes to choosing presidential nominees. As the sitting VP, no other candidate has a better claim to the nomination if Biden leaves the race.

Gretchen Whitmer (+1000)

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is seen as a rising star within the Democratic Party. Her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and strong leadership in a key swing state contribute to her +1000 odds. Whitmer’s proactive measures during the pandemic and her focus on issues such as healthcare and education resonate with many Democratic voters, positioning her as a viable alternative to Biden.

On Monday, Whitmer reiterated her public support of Biden’s candidacy. While she claims to still believe Biden is capable of carrying her crucial home state in November, reportedly said the opposite during a phone call last week with a senior Biden campaign official. She went on to warn the campaign that convincing the public that Biden is still fit for the job will be a tall order.

Whitmer is also reportedly a favorite of several Democratic big-money donors. She will garner serious consideration if Biden exits, which makes her a compelling option given the current +1000 odds to secure the nomination.

Other Joe Biden Prop Bets

Golf Showdowns

To record the lowest score in a head-to-head golf round

One of the dumber debate spats between Trump and Biden occurred late in the night when the two went back-and-forth about their respective golf games. There isn’t a single voter in America that gives a damn about this, yet that didn’t stop the two boomers from bickering about it with each other.

TV executives everywhere must be drooling at the prospect of Biden taking on Trump in a hypothetical golf match. Of course, this will never actually happen.

You can bet on it in the unlikely event a golf showdown does take place, however. Trump is a heavy favorite over Biden, reflecting the perception of Trump as a more skilled golfer.

Trump, who has long touted his golfing abilities and famously owns several golf courses, still plays daily at the age of 78. The -3300 odds indicate a strong confidence in Trump’s ability to outplay Biden on the golf course.

Biden, on the other hand, is known to be an occasional golfer but not nearly to the extent of Trump. The +1200 odds reflect the significant underdog status assigned to Biden in this scenario. While Biden is known for his love of sports and physical activity, golf has not been a central part of his public persona despite some of his claims to the contrary during the debate.

This bet highlights the different public images of the two politicians, with Trump often emphasizing his prowess and competitive nature, while Biden focuses more on his policy work and less on personal hobbies.

For bettors, this might be seen as a straightforward choice given the extensive evidence of Trump’s more prolific golfing history.

Political Prop: Donald Trump (-3300)

Who will win the long drive contest?

Similar to the previous bet, Trump is favored to win a long-drive contest, showcasing that potential physical advantage. The -2500 odds suggest that Trump is expected to hit longer drives than Biden, which aligns with his public image of being an avid golfer. Trump’s frequent appearances on the golf course and his confidence in his driving ability bolster these odds.

Biden’s +1000 odds indicate a lower expectation for him to win in a long-drive contest. Although Biden maintains a fitness regimen and is often seen cycling or jogging, driving a golf ball is a specific skill that he has not been publicly associated with. This makes him a clear underdog in this prop bet. Plus, there’s no reason to believe the more frail-looking 81-year-old is a beacon of physical strength at this point in his life.

The long drive contest bet, like the lowest score bet, emphasizes the contrasting personal brands of Trump and Biden. Trump’s aggressive and competitive nature is well-suited to such bets, while Biden’s focus on governance and public service positions him differently. Bettors who believe in Biden’s general physical fitness might see value in the higher odds, but the consensus strongly favors Trump.

Legal and Political Predictions

Hunter Biden to Serve Jail Time Before 2025?

The odds heavily favor Hunter Biden not serving jail time before 2025, indicating a low likelihood of legal trouble resulting in incarceration within that timeframe. The -5000 odds reflect a strong belief in his legal team’s ability to navigate any potential issues without leading to jail time. Hunter Biden has faced numerous investigations and controversies, but thus far, none have resulted in incarceration.

Biden was convicted on federal gun charges back in June. However, his status as a first-time offender could result in a more lenient sentence than someone with repeated infractions on their record. The president previously pledged that he would not pardon his son in the event of a conviction, but we’ll see whether he holds true to that in the coming months.

Even without a pardon, I have a hard time envisioning the younger Biden getting hit with a jail sentence.

Political Bet: No (-5000)

Will Biden Pardon Sam Bankman-Fried?

The betting odds strongly suggest that Joe Biden will not pardon Sam Bankman-Fried, reflecting a consensus that such an action is highly unlikely. The -4000 odds for “No” indicate that the notion of pardoning Bankman-Fried, a figure embroiled in financial controversies, is not seen as a politically viable option for Biden. Such a pardon would likely be met with substantial public and political backlash.

The +1000 odds for “Yes” represent the slim chance that Biden might consider a pardon. This scenario could be influenced by unforeseen developments or pressure from influential figures but remains highly improbable. Bankman-Fried’s legal troubles are substantial, and a presidential pardon would entail significant political risk for Biden, who would need to weigh the benefits against potential fallout.

Analyzing this bet requires understanding the broader context of presidential pardons and the specific case of Sam Bankman-Fried. Historically, presidential pardons are controversial and closely scrutinized, especially when involving high-profile individuals. In Bankman-Fried’s case, the negative public perception and ongoing legal battles make a pardon unlikely, reinforcing the heavy favoritism towards “No.”

Political Bet: No (-4000)

Biden Political Prop Bets

The constantly-changing Biden odds and prop bets present a fascinating glimpse into the political and public perceptions surrounding his candidacy and potential actions. While he remains the favorite for the Democratic nomination, he’s not home free just yet.

Whether it’s assessing his chances against other Democrats or pondering hypothetical situations like golf showdowns with Trump, these odds highlight the multifaceted nature of political betting. For those interested in these bets, understanding the political landscape, public perceptions, and historical contexts is key to making informed decisions.