2024 John Deere Classic Odds and Picks

The John Deere Classic is one of the most exciting events on the PGA Tour, attracting a field of talented golfers each year.

With The Open Championship on the horizon, most golfers play the John Deere Classic the week before as a tune-up. However, this year’s field is a little watered down. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler won’t play in advance of The Open, while several of the world’s other top players are plying their craft on the controversial LIV Tour.

Of course, there’s betting value to be found in the John Deere Classic odds if you know where to look. This blog will break down the golfers with the ten best odds to win the tournament, as well as identify five potential sleeper bets that could offer excellent value. I’ll also dive into a few individual head-to-head betting markets currently offered at BetOnline.

John Deere Classic Odds

The absence of top names like Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and others means this should be a wide-open field. Sunjae Im and Sepp Straka are the early favorites, yet both players still feature fairly long odds to finish atop the leaderboard.

The lack of household names makes things a bit more interesting from a betting perspective. You’re getting excellent value and upside regardless of which player you bet on to win the tournament. Below are the latest John Deere Classic odds heading into Thursday’s first round:

Sungjae Im (+1400)

Sungjae Im stands as the favorite with odds of +1400. Known for his consistent performance and solid all-around game, Im has been a prominent figure on the tour. His ability to maintain composure under pressure and his exceptional putting skills make him an understandable favorite.

However, Im hasn’t had a great track record at TPC Deere Run in previous seasons. He hasn’t finished better than 8th in 3 career starts at the John Deere. He finished tied for 26th back in 2020, while he stumbled to his worst finish (T-47th) last year.

Im is also in the midst of a very up-and-down campaign in 2024. He’s missed the cut at each of the season’s first 3 majors, and his next tournament win will be his first of the year. The 26-year-old doesn’t even have a top-5 finish since earning 5th place in the first tournament of the season, the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Sepp Straka (+1800)

Sepp Straka has been making waves with his recent performances, and his odds of +1800 reflect his improving reputation. Straka’s powerful driving and precise iron play are his key strengths. If he can maintain his form, he has a solid chance to compete for the top spot.

Unlike Im, Straka also already has a John Deere Classic victory to his name. Straka is the reigning champion at this tournament after finishing an incredible 21-under par. That included a robust 9-under 62 in the final round to clinch the title. That Straka still shot a 62 despite a double-bogey on the final hole shows just how dominant he was.

That was Straka’s 2nd PGA Tour win, and the next will be his 3rd. Straka has a pair of top-5 finishes this season at the RBC Heritage, the Colonial, and the Memorial. Straka enjoyed a solid 16th-place finish at the Masters, but struggled to a 56th-place showing at the US Open.

Jordan Spieth (+2000)

Jordan Spieth remains a fan favorite despite inconsistent play over the years. At +2000, he has the 3rd-best John Deere Classic odds of any player in this year’s field.

Known for his creativity on the course and exceptional short game, Spieth has the experience and skill to navigate the challenges of the John Deere Classic. His past success in similar tournaments adds to his appeal as high-end betting option.

Spieth tied with Im for a 5th-place finish at the season-opening Sentry Tournament of Champions, but that remains his only top-10 showing of the season.

The Dallas native has an impressive history at this event, however. Way back in 2013, he became the youngest player in 80 years to win the event at just 19 years old. Spieth followed that up by winning the tournament again 2 years later by finishing 20-under par.

Aaron Rai (+2000)

Aaron Rai, also at +2000, is another golfer to keep an eye on. Rai’s accuracy off the tee and solid approach shots have earned him a spot among the top contenders. His calm demeanor and strategic play style make him a formidable opponent.

Rai has made the cut in 13 of his 17 starts this season. That includes a top-5 finish at the RBC Canadian Open alongside two more top-10 showings.

Unlike Spieth, however, Rai hasn’t enjoyed much success at TPC Deere Run. In 3 starts here, Rai hasn’t finished better than 18th, while he missed the cut entirely back in 2022.

Denny McCarthy (+2000)

Denny McCarthy’s odds of +2000 highlight his potential to make a significant impact. Known for his exceptional putting ability, McCarthy can gain strokes on the greens, which is crucial in tight competitions. His recent performances suggest he is ready for a breakthrough, too.

McCarthy has 4 top-10 finishes in his last 6 outings, though he also missed the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge during that stretch. His best finish was a 2nd-place finish after a playoff at the Valero Texas Open, which was ultimately won by Akshay Bhatia.

McCarthy has been a presence at each of the last 2 John Deere Classics, so perhaps this is the year he finally gets to the top. The Maryland native has finished 6th in back-to-back years after finishing no better than 34th in each of his first 3 tries at this tournament.

Davis Thompson (+2200)

Davis Thompson (+2200 John Deere Classic odds) is a rising star on the PGA Tour. His strong driving and consistent ball-striking have caught the attention of many. His putting, however, might be what sets him apart.

He’s been a steady presence in terms of consistently making cuts and finishing in the top-30 this season. However, he also hasn’t really challenged for first place all that often. His next top-10 finish will be his first, as his 15th-place showings at the World Wide Technology Championship and WM Phoenix Open are his best outings of the season to date.

This will be just the 2nd start at the John Deere Classic for the 25-year-old. While he only finished 31st in his first try last year, he did rank among the league leaders in Strokes Gained: Putting. His +1.22 mark was the 10th-best of any player in the field. Straka, the champion, finished 5th in that category at +1.7.

Maverick McNealy (+2500)

Maverick McNealy, at +2500, has shown great promise with his recent performances. McNealy’s well-rounded game and mental toughness make him a solid bet. If he can maintain his form, he has the potential to secure a top finish. Plus, he has the best name of any player on the PGA Tour, which has to count for something.

McNealy has a pair of top-10 finishes on the season. He finished 6th at the WM Phoenix Open before a 9th-place outing at THE PLAYERS Championship. McNealy has been one of the best putters on the tour this season, as well, which is certainly an attribute that can set him apart in a crowded field.

McNealy is 24th on the tour in Strokes Gained: Putting. Back in 2021, he finished a career-best 8th at this event, thanks in part to a memorable hole-in-one during the second round. He finished 16th at last year’s John Deere.

Potential Sleeper Bets

Sam Stevens (+4000)

Sam Stevens, with odds of +4000, is a potential sleeper bet. Stevens has shown flashes of brilliance and has the skills to surprise many. His strong iron play and ability to tame par-5s could give him an edge.

Stevens is in the midst of an inconsistent season. He carded top-10 scores at the Corales Puntacana Championship, Valero Texas Open, and 3M Open. However, he’s also missed cuts at the Honda Classic, Valspar Championship, Travelers Championship, and Wyndham Championship.

Stevens also missed the cut at his lone previous John Deere Classic appearance a season ago.

Kevin Yu (+4500)

Kevin Yu’s odds of +4500 make him an intriguing option. Yu’s consistent performance and ability to handle difficult courses have been impressive. If he can put together a solid four rounds, he could contend.

What makes me love Yu’s +4500 John Deere Classic odds is how well he fared at this event in 2023. Yu led all players in Strokes Gained: Putting with a terrific 1.97 mark. No other player finished better than 1.83. Yu parlayed that putting prowess into a career-best 6th-place finish, so I’m not at all sure why he’s facing such long odds heading into this year’s event.

Beau Hossler (+4500)

Beau Hossler, also at +4500, is another sleeper to consider. Hossler carded a 26th-place finish last year at this event, while the 2024 campaign has been a relative struggle.

Hossler hasn’t finished inside the top-10 at any event all year. The lone exception was a tie for 4th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but that’s a team event he played with Wyndham Clark.

Hossler has never won a PGA Tour event in 194 career starts, though he’s made the cut 126 times.

Who Will Win the 2024 John Deere Classic?

Betting on the favorites is admittedly alluring with bigger names like Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth still offering potentially profitable odds between +1400 and +2000, but I like the idea of taking a swing on even more upside with some of the potential long-shot contenders.

Aaron Rai (+2000) offers a bit more profit potential at slightly longer odds than a few other favorites. His consistency has been a hallmark of his play all season, and I think he can parlay that into a run at the John Deere this weekend. At +2000, Rai is my favorite value bet among the true contenders.

If you’re looking for a sleeper at even longer John Deere Classic odds, Kevin Yu (+4500) is the standout on the heels of his aforementioned impressive showing at last year’s tournament. Without a clear-cut favorite looming over the rest of the field, this looks like a week to bet on some of the golfers facing longer odds.

PGA Tour Bet: Aaron Rai (+2000)

PGA Tour Sleeper Bet: Kevin Yu (+4500)

John Deere Classic Head-to-Head Props

As mentioned in the open, you can also wager on certain head-to-head matchups between golfers at this year’s event. The bets are simple. You’re betting on which player will finish the tournament with a better score after all 4 rounds are complete.

Jason Day actually made his first career PGA Tour start at this event way back in 2006. He was just 19 at the time and earned a sponsor exemption to play. He wound up impressively making the cut that year, though injuries have since derailed him.

Day has withdrawn from the event on several occasions as a result of back trouble, most recently in 2022. He’s picked up 4 top-10 finishes so far this season, but he hasn’t actually finished a start at this competition since way back in 2011.

It’s easy to see why Spieth is a favorite to fare better than Day at -130, but I’ll take a stab at the latter’s plus-money odds. Day is ranked in the top-30 in this year’s PGA Tour standings, and I think he’s potentially undervalued here.

PGA Tour Bet: Jason Day (+110)

Rai is still waiting to win his first PGA Tour event, but I don’t think he’s far away. He’s sixth on the tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, while he’s eighth in Total Strokes Gained. He comes into this weekend in superb form, and a top-5 finish this weekend will guarantee Rai qualification in The Open Championship. Motivation shouldn’t be an issue for him.

Straka certainly has the track record at TPC Deere Run, but I’ve already picked Rai to win the tournament.

PGA Tour Bet: Aaron Rai (-110)