Fernando Martinez vs. Kazuto Ioka 2 Odds and Predictions

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On December 31, 2024, Fernando Martinez (17-0, 9 KO) will return to the ring in a rematch against Japanese star Kazuto Ioka (31-3-1, 16 KOs) in a thrilling rematch for the WBA super flyweight championship. 

The rematch, which comes nearly six months after their July 2024 clash, will emanate live from the Ota-City General Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan.

Ioka, the first Japanese male boxer to win championships in four different weight classes, was outclassed in their first bout. The younger Martinez was able to outpoint the Japanese star and take home multiple titles.

Unfortunately, Martinez relinquished the IBF title after turning down a mandatory defense against Willibaldo Garcia. Instead, Martinez wanted a rematch with the future Hall of Fame star – Ioka. 

Let’s take a look at the latest Martinez vs. Ioka boxing odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Martinez vs. Ioka predictions for the highly anticipated boxing rematch.

Fernando Martinez vs. Kazuto Ioka Preview

Check out the latest take of the tape for Fernando Martinez vs. Kazuto Ioka:

The First Fernando Martinez vs. Kazuto Ioka Fight

The first fight between Martinez and Ioka was for the WBA and IBF championships in a two-belt unification bout. 

Ioka, who is in the twilight of his legendary career, faced an aggressive Martinez who was looking for the biggest victory in his ascending career. 

The Argentinian came out on fire over the first half of the fight with a high volume of punches and an offensive onslaught. In fact, Martinez hurt Ioka in the opening round and continued to seek out a finish over the first few rounds of the fight.

However, the HOF Japanese star slowly clawed his way back into this bout. Ioka started working over the body and slowing down his opponent. This allowed Ioka to get back into the fight and on the scorecards. The hometown crowd started believing that he could successfully pull off the comeback win. 

Unfortunately for Ioka and his fans, that was not to be. Martinez was able to hold off the Japanese star in the championship rounds to solidify his biggest victory to date. 

Prior to the 12^th round, the two men hugged and then went to battle. It was a battle that Martinez won via unanimous decision with the scores of: 116-112, 117-111, 120-108. 

The 120-108 score makes you wonder what fight that judge was watching. ScoresandStats had this bout for Martinez at 115-113. 

Following the victory, a tearful Martinez declared that they gave the fans what they wanted. I expect that to be the case in this rematch on New Year’s Eve. 

Fernando Martinez Recent Fights

As mentioned, Martinez had the IBF strap heading into the fight against Ioka. He won that bout by defeating Jerwin Ancajas in February 2022. “Puma” scored a unanimous decision with the scores of 117-11, 118-110, and 118-110.

The two men would fight again on October 2022, and it ended with the same result. Martinez would win via unanimous decision with the scores of 118-110, 118-110, 119-109. 

Following those two hard-fought bouts, Pumita didn’t return to the ring for another eight months. Upon his return, Martinez fought the 18-9 Jade Bornea. He dispatched of Bornea via 11^th round TKO and was well ahead on the scorecards at that point of the fight.

Martinez wouldn’t fight again for a year before stepping in the ring with Ioka in Japan. This bout was for his IBF title and Ioka’s WBA strap. As detailed above, Puma won via unanimous decision in an exciting bout. 

Fernando Martinez Odds

The betting data for Martinez’s past fights, is very limited. However, we see that he was a sizable underdog in the first bout against Ancajas. Pumita was a +380 to +475 underdog. In the rematch, Martinez was the notable favorite with odds listed at -275 to -350.

Following the pair of fights against Ancajas, Martinez was a notable favorite against the unbeaten Bornea. He opened at -450 odds, and closed at a range of -300 to -430. 

In the first bout against Ioka, the Japanese star opened as a -140 favorite and maintained that status up until the fight. Martinez opened at +116 odds and closed as high as a +125 underdog.

In their rematch, Martinez opened as a -210 favorite and now sees his odds sitting in a range of -275 to -350.

Kazuto Ioka Recent Fights

Coming into the first bout against Martinez, Ioka had won nine fights in a row since his 2018 loss to Donnie Nietes. Fortunately for Ioka, he was able to avenge that loss in their rematch fight in July 2022. This time, Ioka came away with the decision victory. 

Following the Nietes rematch, Ioka would engage in two battles against Joshua Franco. Their first bout was in December 2022, and it ended in a Majority Draw. So, the two rematches in June 2023, and this time Ioka took the unanimous decision with the scores of 115-113, 116-112, 116-112.

Six months later, he would return to action against Josber Perez. This time, Ioka finished off his opponent with a 7^th round knockout. It was the first TKO/KO win since December 2020, when he beat Kosei Tanaka via 8^th round TKO. 

Seven months after the Perez victory, Ioka would return to the ring for his first encounter with Martinez. The rematch between these two talented fighters will mark the 11^th consecutive bout that Ioka has fought in Japan.

Kazuto Ioka Odds

This rematch, is the first time that Ioka has been listed as an underdog since his first bout against Donnie Nietes in December 2018. In that bout, Ioka opened as the underdog, but closes as the favorite. In the rematch with Joshua Franco, the odds were very close.

Depending on which sportsbook you looked at, the two men were Even at the opening lines and closed at very similar odds as well. Ioka closed as at +100 to -140, while Franco closed at +110 to -128. 

Fernando Martinez vs. Kazuto Ioka Predictions

Ioka is looking to avenge a fight for the third time in a rematch. He was able to outpoint Nietes in 2022, after his 2018 loss. He was also able to pick up the decision win over Franco in 2023, after they fought to a Draw in 2022. With that said, it’s harder to imagine that Ioka can do this a third time. 

The first bout between Martinez and Ioka took place just five months ago. It’s not like a lengthy amount of time has gone by and the two have changed as fighters. If anything, Ioka is getting older and it feels like he’s closer to retirement than another world title run.

Neither man really has a physical advantage in terms of size and reach. And, Martinez already dispelled any doubts about being on the same level as Ioka in terms of talent.

With that said, I am leaning towards Martinez pulling off another win in Japan of the country’s legendary boxer. I think Ioka will box a better fight this time around, but that Martinez will still come away with the victory. Look for a close fight that mirrors a lot of the first bout, but with a few new wrinkles that ultimately favor Pumita.

Bet: Fernando Martinez (-350)

What’s Next For The Ioka vs. Martinez 2 Winner? 

The answer to this question really depends on who wins the fight. If Ioka wins, and it’s a close one, then I think we get a trilogy bout. However, since I am picking Martinez to win, I see Pumita moving on to other big fights within the division.

Currently, there are two other world champs that could be the next to fight Martinez in 2025. Phumelela Cafu just pulled off the huge upset in defeating Kosei Tanaka for the WBO belt in October. He could be a viable candidate for Pumita next year, provided that Tanaka doesn’t get a rematch first.

With that said, the biggest fight for anyone in the division is Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez. And, fortunately for fight fans of the super flyweight division, Rodriguez plans on unifying the belts in 2025:

“I feel good making weight. I have another year at 115 and in that year, I feel like I can take care of business and become undisputed.”

To become the undisputed champ of this division, Bam would have to fight the winner of Ioka vs. Martinez. Once again, this is something that Rodriguez is interested in. In fact, he’s excited to see who wins this rematch:

“I feel that Ioka fought the wrong fight, and he might box a bit better in the rematch. But you can’t take anything away from Martinez; he went into Ioka’s backyard and took it from him. That says a lot. I’m excited to watch that rematch and see where things go from there.”

If Bam can unify the weight class, then 2025 is going to be an exciting time for fighters like Rodriguez, Martinez and even Cafu.

The Best Fernando Martinez vs. Kazuto Ioka Prop Bets

The following Fernando Martinez vs. Kazuto Ioka prop bets are courtesy of BetUS: 

Over/Under 10.5 rounds 

• Over 10.5 (-600)
• Under 10.5 (+400)

Considering that their first bout went Over 10.5 rounds, I see no reason to think that this rematch won’t do the same. Both men have proven they can go deep into the fights and still perform at high levels despite the duration and fatigue. 

Although the odds offer zero value, I would’ve thought this line to be higher. So, take the Over 10.5 rounds before betting sites increase the line.

Bet: Over 10.5 rounds (-600)

Will Fight go the distance?

• Yes (-500)
• No (+330)

For Ioka, 19 of his 35 pro fights have gone the distance. This includes seven of his last nine bouts. For Martinez, eight of his 17 pro fights have gone the distance. This includes three of the last four bouts. 

Considering that their first fight went the full 12 rounds, and that neither man has ever been knocked out in a pro fight, it’s pretty easy to assume that this rematch will go the distance.

Bet: Yes (-500)

Method of Victory

• Ioka via TKO/KO/DQ (+900)
• Ioka via decision (+450)
• Martinez via TKO/KO/DQ (+550)
• Martinez via decision (-190)
• Draw (+1400)

As laid out above, I don’t see either man getting stopped. In 52 combined professional fights, neither man has suffered a TKO/KO defeat. I don’t see that happening on December 31.

So, that leaves us with the options of either fighter picking up a decision victory or a Draw. Once again, in 52 total fights, these two men have only ever gone to one Draw before. Although this rematch should be a close contest, I don’t see a Draw happening.

That means one of these fighters will win via decision. I believe Martinez will pick up a second decision win over Ioka. 

Martinez’s moneyline odds are listed at -350, so taking the decision at -190 odds offers far better value. Considering that Ioka has never been stopped before, and the first match went the distance, I fully expect this rematch to go the full 12 rounds with Pumita getting his hands raised once again in Japan. 

Bet: Martinez via decision (-190)