2024 MLB Home Run Derby Odds and Predictions

It’s hard to believe, but we’ve already reached the halfway point of the 2024 Major League Baseball campaign. Next week, the game’s brightest stars will descend upon Arlington, Texas, for the All-Star Game. I’m sure they’ve all been dreaming for their entire lives of one day visiting this random Dallas suburb.

While the All-Star Game itself is generally fun, the Home Run Derby is another major event that should attract eyeballs. It’ll also attract bettors, especially considering the All-Star break takes place during an otherwise dead portion of the sporting calendar. With the field for the Derby set, online sportsbooks have already set their Home Run Derby odds.

This year’s lineup is packed with some of the most powerful hitters in the game, and the competition should be heated. The MLB odds have been released, and it’s time to analyze and predict who might come out on top in the annual slugfest.

2024 Home Run Derby Odds

Pete Alonso (+300)

Pete Alonso, also known as the “Polar Bear,” is no stranger to the Home Run Derby. Having won the event twice before, Alonso comes into this year’s competition as the favorite with +300 odds.

Alonso has as much raw power as any hitter in baseball, which makes him a natural when it comes to the Home Run Derby. This will be Alonso’s fifth appearance at the event, which puts him among the all-time leaders. Alonso said he wouldn’t compete in the Derby if he wasn’t selected to play in the game itself, but he earned his fourth All-Star nod this past weekend.

Alonso first won the Derby in his very first attempt as a rookie back in 2019 when he won a memorable duel against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. After the 2020 Derby was canceled due to the pandemic, Polar Bear Pete made it back-to-back victories with a triumph in Colorado in 2021.

The Mets’ slugger has fallen short in each of his last 2 attempts. He lost in the semifinals to the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez in Los Angeles at the 2022 event, while he was again beaten by Rodriguez in Seattle last summer in the first round.

Alonso’s swing is perfectly catered for this event. On the season, Alonso is tied for 15th in the majors with 18 homers. That puts him behind 4 of the sluggers he’ll face on Monday night.

Given his track record of success at the Derby, it’s easy to see why Pete is a solid +300 favorite.

Adolis Garcia (+425)

Adolis Garcia was a breakout star in the postseason last year for the World Series champion Texas Rangers. With +425 Home Run Derby odds, Garcia is considered a strong contender for the trophy. His aggressive swing and ability to generate significant bat speed leads to a natural home run stroke.

With the Derby taking place at Globe Life Field, Garcia will have the home crowd at his back. Garcia repeatedly thrived in high-pressure scenarios for the Rangers last October, and he earned ALCS MVP honors after single-handedly dismantling the Astros in Texas’ 7-game triumph.

While he’s now one of the more well-known sluggers in the game, Garcia hasn’t had the best 2024 campaign thus far. He’s likely only here because the Rangers are hosting. While he does have 17 home runs, Adolis is slashing a supremely underwhelming .215/.279/.415 through 88 games.

That said, Garcia is still making quality contact. His strikeout rate is too high, but something tells me that won’t be an issue in the Derby. Garcia has recorded 33 barrels this season, which ranks 19th among all qualified hitters in MLB. A barrel – as defined by Statcast – is a ball whose comparable hit types (based on exit velocity and launch angle) have historically resulted in a batting average of at least .500 and a slugging percentage of at least 1.500. In other words, a barrel is considered to be the ideal measuring stick for quality contact.

Home-field advantage might count for something, which makes Garcia an interesting option at +425.

Marcell Ozuna (+450)

Marcell Ozuna is another contender with +450 odds. Known for his powerful hitting and ability to drive the ball deep, Ozuna has the potential to light up the Home Run Derby.

MLB is making a very questionable decision by putting a personality like Ozuna on the big stage, but it is what it is. If you can get past his rather rocky off-the-field résumé, there’s no doubting his potential to actually win the Derby.

Ozuna’s career was on life support as recently as May of 2023, but he’s turned it around remarkably ever since. So far this season, the Braves’ DH is hitting .296/.374/.568 with 24 home runs. Those 24 homers are the 4th-most in all of baseball, and only Gunnar Henderson (27) has more among Derby participants.

Ozuna has the 5th-most barrels (45) of any player in the sport, as well. Ozuna’s average exit velocity (93.1 miles an hour) is a career-best, which is no small feat at the age of 33.

Gunnar Henderson (+500)

Gunnar Henderson, a rising star, comes in with +500 odds. Henderson has shown immense potential and power in his young career. Competing in his first Home Run Derby, the challenge for Henderson will be handling the pressure and staying consistent throughout the rounds.

Henderson earned American League Rookie of the Year honors last season, and he’s firmly in the AL MVP chase this year. In fact, Henderson is a close 2nd behind Aaron Judge in the latest AL MVP odds, and there’s no reason to think he isn’t a legitimate threat to win it.

Henderson’s 27 homers this season lead all Derby entrants. He’s 3rd in the sport behind Judge and Shohei Ohtani, which is heady company for such an inexperienced player. The 23-year-old is just 1 dinger shy of matching last season’s total in just under half of the amount of games.

Henderson is hitting the ball in the air more frequently this season, and the results have followed accordingly. Globe Life Field’s dimensions also cater nicely to his left-handed power stroke, which gives him an edge over a righty-heavy field.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+700)

Bobby Witt Jr., with +700 odds, is another stellar young talent with a lot of promise. Witt’s quick hands and natural power make him a sleeper pick in this year’s competition. If he can find his rhythm early, Witt has a chance to make a deep run in the Derby.

Witt and Henderson are arguably the game’s 2 best shortstops already, so it’ll be fun to see them share the stage on Monday night. Witt doesn’t garner a whole lot of attention playing for a small-market Royals team hovering around .500, but he’s already a superstar at the age of 24

The Texas native smacked a career-high 30 homers last season, which was quite impressive for a player in just his 2nd full season at the MLB level. He’s on a similar pace again this term with 15 dingers through 94 games.

This season, Witt has improved his on-base skills considerably. He’s upped his batting average from .276 to .325, while his OBP has risen from .319 last year to a robust .371.

Witt doesn’t profile as a traditional power hitter, however. His relatively thin frame could prove to be a disadvantage in a Derby that features a handful of more classic slugger types.

Teoscar Hernandez (+1000)

Teoscar Hernandez is an intriguing long-shot bet with +1000 Home Run Derby odds. Hernandez has the raw power to compete with the best, but his consistency will be key. If Hernandez can string together a series of strong swings, he could surprise many and go far in the competition.

Hernandez is a high-strikeout hitter, but he’s far from alone in that regard. Again, the ability to make contact isn’t the be-all, end-all in the Derby when they’re facing batting practice-caliber pitching.

Teo was a reliable source of power in previous seasons with the Blue Jays, but he struggled during his lone season with the Mariners in 2023. He’s bounced back in a big way since signing with the Dodgers this winter, however. Hernandez has already hit 19 home runs, which means he’s on pace to blow by last season’s total of 26. In fact, Hernandez is likely to set a new career-high for homers if he can stay healthy for the rest of the summer.

Hernandez’s 14.9% barrel rate puts him among the league leaders. Because he won’t have to worry about swings and misses, I think Hernandez makes for one of the better sleepers in the field. The +1000 odds don’t reflect just how much power is in his bat.

Jose Ramirez (+1300)

Like Witt, Ramirez doesn’t necessarily profile as a guy you’d think will consistently hit dongs. Ramirez is just 5’9″ and he doesn’t have the fastest bat in the world. In fact, Ramirez is in just the 44th percentile for average bat speed so far this season. That doesn’t bode well for his chances of stringing together enough home runs to win the Derby. Stamina could also be an issue given his relatively small frame.

Ramirez is a switch-hitter, so it’ll be interesting to see from which side of the plate he chooses to hit on Monday. J-Ram participated in the 2022 event at Dodger Stadium, but he was eliminated in a first-round showdown with eventual champion Juan Soto. Ramirez hit right-handed that year, and he was reportedly dealing with a thumb injury at the time.

15 of Ramirez’s 23 homers this season have come from the left side of the plate, for what it’s worth. He’s another hitter on pace to set a new career-best in big flies, as he hit just 24 across 156 games for Cleveland a season ago.

Alec Bohm (+1500)

Alec Bohm, the long shot with +1500 odds, is looking to make a name for himself in the Home Run Derby. Bohm’s powerful swing and potential to get on a roll make him an interesting pick. The competition is tough, though, and Bohm looks like one of the more random entrants in the field.

The Phillies boast no shortage of traditional power hitters, including former Derby champion Bryce Harper and NL home run champ Kyle Schwarber. While the third baseman did earn his first All-Star nod this season, he’s also hit the fewest home runs of any player in the field for the Derby with just 11 on the year.

Bohm is on pace to surpass last season’s career-high of 20 long balls, but not by much. Bohm has improved his hard-hit, fly-ball, and pul rates this season, which have resulted in improved power numbers. Pulling the ball is particularly important, as that’s how most hitters find success in this event.

The +1500 Home Run Derby odds are worth noting, but I’ll be shocked if Bohm actually goes on to win.

Who Will Win the Home Run Derby?

The Home Run Derby is always unpredictable. Alonso has failed to win either of the last 2 Derbies despite entering both events as the favorite. Alonso figures to be the chalky pick to win again in 2024, but it’s no fun to bet on the favorite, right?

Given the 2024 numbers and odds, I think the best value of the bunch is Henderson at +500. If you want a bit more bang for your buck, Hernandez at +1000 looks a bit undervalued by oddsmakers.

1. Pick to Win: Gunnar Henderson (+500)
2. Sleeper Pick: Teoscar Hernandez (+1000)

2024 MLB Home Run Derby Prop Bets

Check out the following MLB Home Run Derby prop bets, according to Bet365:

Most Home Runs by Any Player in the 1st Round

• Over 29.5 (-110)
• Under 29.5 (-110)

The over/under for the most home runs hit by any player in the first round is set at 29.5. Considering the power hitters participating this year, taking the over might be a good bet. Players like Alonso and Garcia have shown they can hit a high volume of home runs in a short period, especially in the Derby format.

Last year, Julio Rodriguez was the only player to smack at least 30 homers in the first round, as he walloped a whopping 41 dongs in a first-round upset of Alonso. Luis Robert (28) and Adley Rutschman (27) both came close. Rodriguez (32) was also the only player to hit at least 30 bombs in the first round of the 2022 Derby.

Back in 2021, Alonso (35) and Juan Soto (31) both accomplished the feat. I like the over here at the -110 odds.

Home Run Derby Bet: Over 29.5 home runs (-110)

Will There Be a Tiebreaker in Any Match-Up?

• No (-400)
• Yes (+300)

The odds heavily favor there being no tiebreaker in any match-up at -400. Tiebreakers in the Home Run Derby are rare but not impossible. If you believe in a highly competitive field where players are evenly matched, the +300 odds for a tiebreaker could offer a significant payout.

While previous Home Run Derbies have employed a “swing-off” style tiebreaker, that isn’t the case in this year’s event. In the event that 2 players wind up tied at the end of a round, the tiebreaker will be whichever player recorded the longest homer in that round.

This year’s format is also a bit different. The 4 players who finish the first round with the most home runs will advance to the next round before the head-to-head format returns for the semifinals and finals.

While it’s unlikely, I think there’s serious value to be had in taking the “yes” side of this one at the +300 odds.

Home Run Derby Bet: Yes (+300)

Player with Highest Recorded Exit Velocity on HR

• Bobby Witt Jr. (+300)
• Jose Ramirez (+350)
• Pete Alonso (+400)
• Adolis Garcia (+450)
• Marcell Ozuna (+600)
• Gunnar Henderson (+700)
• Teoscar Hernandez (+1200)
• Alec Bohm (+2000)

Exit velocity is a critical metric in determining the power behind a home run. Alonso, with his consistent display of power and long track record in this event, is a contender at +400. Bobby Witt Jr. and Jose Ramirez also present good options due to their ability to hit the ball hard. For a long-shot bet, Teoscar Hernandez at +1200 and Alec Bohm at +2000 might be worth considering if you believe they can unleash their power during the Derby.

My favorite value of the bunch is Ozuna at +600, however. I previously mentioned how his average exit velocity this season is the highest of his career, so he’ll enter the Derby in excellent form.

Home Run Derby Bet: Marcell Ozuna (+600)

Winning League

• National League (-115)
• American League (-105)

The odds for the winning league are quite close, indicating a balanced competition. The National League is slightly favored at -115, but the American League at -105 presents nearly equal value. This bet comes down to personal preference and analysis of the participating hitters from each league.

We’ve got 4 players competing for each league here, so it’s a bit surprising to see the NL listed as a favorite at -115 Home Run Derby odds. Alonso is the clear favorite, but another NL player – Alec Bohm – has the longest odds in the field.

Again, I’ll side with the value. I mentioned loving the value on Henderson to win the Derby outright, so the -105 odds on the American League look appealing. This is a decent way to hedge your bet if you wager on an NL player to win it, as well.

Home Run Derby Bet: American League (-105)

Player to Hit Longest Home Run

• Bobby Witt Jr. (+150)
• Marcell Ozuna (+450)
• Pete Alonso (+450)
• Jose Ramirez (+700)
• Adolis Garcia (+1000)
• Gunnar Henderson (+1000)
• Teoscar Hernandez (+1000)
• Alec Bohm (+2200)

The favorite for hitting the longest home run is Bobby Witt Jr. at +150. However, Pete Alonso and Marcell Ozuna offer a bit more value at +450 apiece. With Alonso’s experience and power, he could be a good pick.

Witt is the only player in the field with one of the 10 longest home runs of the 2024 season. The Royals’ star shortstop hit a 468-foot tank against the Tigers back in May. That said, I do not believe he should be such a heavy favorite to hit the longest dinger of the Derby.

Garcia (+1000) looks like the best value here. Have you seen this guy? I think his biceps have their own biceps. With the home crowd at his back, I expect the reigning ALCS MVP to put on a show.

Home Run Derby Bet: Adolis Garcia (+1000)