2025 Home Run Leader Odds and Predictions

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At long last, the 2025 Major League Baseball season is upon us. Opening Day is set for Thursday, March 27th, and 6 months of nonstop baseball action will ensue.

As usual, all eyes will be on the home run race. Some of the league’s biggest stars are ready to put up big numbers again this summer. MLB betting sites have already posted odds for which player will finish the season atop the home run leaderboard.

As you prepare to place your bets on the 2025 MLB Home Run Leader, we’ve got the latest MLB odds and predictions right here. While you’re at it, check out the World Series odds and predictions, our expert MLB coverage, and your favorite MLB Teams for more betting analysis.

All-Time Home Run Leaders

Here are the top 10 all-time home run leaders:

• Barry Bonds (762)
• Hank Aaron (755)
• Babe Ruth (714)
• Albert Pujols (703)
• Alex Rodriguez (696)
• Willie Mays (660)
• Ken Griffey Jr. (630)
• Jim Thome (612)
• Sammy Sosa (609)
• Frank Robinson (586)

Home Run Leaders 2024

In 2024, Aaron Judge led the league in home runs with an impressive 58 dingers. It marked the 2nd time in the last 3 seasons that the New York Yankees’ slugger led all of baseball in dongs, and it was the 4th straight season in which he slugged at least 37.

On the National League side, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani led all hitters with 54 homers. That was easily the most home runs Ohtani has hit since coming to the majors. He also stole 59 bases and became the first player in the history of the sport to hit at least 50 homers and swipe at least 50 bags in the same campaign.

MLB Home Run Leader Odds

Check out the latest MLB odds for which player will finish with the most home runs in 2025:

As you’d expect, Judge is the favorite to repeat his 2024 dominance. Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Kyle Schwarber also stand out with strong odds. Bettors looking for advice from the best handicappers might find value in these odds.

Home Run Leader Favorites

The following players are considered the betting favorites to have the most home runs, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Aaron Judge (+360)

Judge is the preeminent power hitter in the sport, so his status as the home run leader favorite again heading into ’25 is hardly a surprise. There isn’t another player on the planet who’s quite as intimidating in the batter’s box as the Yankee captain, and he’s become one of the most well-rounded hitters in the league since breaking into the majors for the first time back in 2016.

All the 32-year-old has done since is belt a whopping 315 home runs across just 993 regular-season appearances. Judge became the fastest player ever to cross the 300-homer plateau last year, a feat he accomplished in just his 3,431st at-bat at the MLB level.

As long as he stays healthy, there’s little reason to believe Judge won’t again rank among the league leaders in big flies this year. Yankee Stadium is one of the most favorable settings in baseball for home run hitting, and Judge’s ability to spread the ball to all fields makes him a perfect fit for the particularly short porch in right field.

He’s hardly just a product of his cushy home digs, however. Judge hit 31 of his homers in the Bronx with 27 coming on the road. In 2022 – when he set the new American League record with 62 dingers – Judge actually hit 2 more homers away from home than he did at Yankee Stadium.

Judge has been relatively healthy over the years, as he’s topped 100 games played in each of his last 4 seasons. The +360 odds on Judge to lead the majors in homers again this year are certainly attackable.

Shohei Ohtani (+650)

Ohtani’s unique skill set makes him a perennial MVP candidate. His power at the plate is undeniable, and if he stays healthy, he could be a serious contender for the home run title. He came close last year, of course, but Judge managed to edge him out by 4 homers.

Ohtani’s first season in Los Angeles couldn’t have been more magical. In addition to his aforementioned 50/50 season and the NL MVP award, Ohtani also led the Dodgers to their first full-season World Series title since 1988. He was everything the Dodgers could’ve hoped for – and much more – after the team inked him to a record-setting $700 million deal prior to last season.

We’ll see what he has in store for an encore. Ohtani will reportedly return to the mound this season after recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he likely won’t make his pitching debut with the team until later in the season. In the meantime, Ohtani will just keep on sluggin’. There’s no reason to believe he isn’t capable of another 50-homer campaign, though it’s worth noting last year’s 54 HR were easily the most he’s ever hit since coming to the majors from Japan.

Prior to 2024, Ohtani had never hit more than 46 homers in a single season. Last year’s 159 games played were also his most in a big-league campaign. Dodger Stadium is a hitter-friendly park, though we’ll see if Ohtani’s decision to start pitching again hampers his ability to play a full season’s worth of games.

If so, that could kill his chances to leapfrog Judge and win the home run title. Still, the +650 odds on Ohtani to lead the league in taters are alluring, especially if Judge falters.

Kyle Schwarber (+1200)

A pure power hitter, Kyle Schwarber always finds himself near the top of the home run charts. If he stays consistent, he could be a great pick at +1200 to overtake Judge and Ohtani to lead the major leagues in homers.

Schwarber’s combination of plate discipline with a quiet approach makes him a threat to go deep every time he steps into the batter’s box. The Philadelphia Phillies also typically hit Schwarber out of the leadoff spot, which certainly maximizes the number of trips he’ll get to the plate every single night.

The 32-year-old has hit at least 30 home runs in each of his last 4 seasons, and playing his home games at the hitter’s haven known as Citizens Bank Park doesn’t hurt his chances. Schwarber hit at least 46 homers in 2022 and 2023 before slumping a bit to 38 a season ago. After battling injuries earlier in his career, the recent move to full-time DH has helped him stay in the lineup. Schwarber’s logged at least 150 games played in each of his first 3 seasons with the Phillies.

While he’s been remarkably consistent over the years, Schwarber has never actually led the majors in homers before. He did win the National League home run title with his 46 blasts in 2022, but Judge won the leaguewide title that year with 62. Still, the +1200 odds are attractive given Schwarber’s steady presence atop the Philadelphia lineup.

Pete Alonso (+1600)

Like Schwarber, Pete Alonso has been among the most consistent power threats in the sport in recent years. The Tampa native burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2019 when he blasted a whopping 53 home runs for the New York Mets. He’s never managed to reach at least 50 home runs in any of his subsequent 5 seasons, but the former Home Run Derby champion is still a consistent presence near the top of the annual leaderboards.

Last year, Alonso smacked 34 dingers across a full 162 games. That was the first time in Alonso’s career that he played in every game, and the Mets rewarded him with a new contract over the winter. He’s never failed to slug at least 34 homers in any of his non-truncated seasons to this point. Even in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Alonso hit 16 homers in just 57 games to rank among the league leaders.

Unfortunately for Alonso, his home park of Citi Field isn’t quite as favorable in terms of hitting for power as several of the other contenders. Citi Field has actually ranked among the most pitcher-friendly parks since it opened. While we’ve seen that he’s still fully capable of putting up eye-popping home run totals, I do think Alonso makes for a riskier bet than several of the other top options despite the +1600 home run leader odds.

The Best Home Run Leader Betting Value

The following players offer the best betting value to lead the league in home runs:

Brent Rooker (+2000)

Brent Rooker’s odds suggest he’s a dark horse, but his recent performances show he’s capable of blasting his way to the top if he maintains his power streak.

This season, the A’s will play their home games in Sacramento as they reportedly prepare to move to Las Vegas in a few years. Rooker came out of nowhere to become a star for the A’s after bouncing around in several organizations between 2020 and 2023. He hit 30 homers in his first full year in Oakland in ’23 before crushing 39 big flies a season ago.

We’ll see if leaving Oakland helps Rooker’s power numbers. The fact that he already put up consecutive 30-homer seasons despite playing in one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the league is a testament to Rooker’s impressive individual power. The ballpark in Sacramento is likely to be a bit more hitter-friendly, which could boost Rooker’s power numbers even more heading into the new campaign.

Rooker is hardly a household name considering he doesn’t play for one of baseball’s big-market darlings, but there’s quite a bit of upside in his +2000 to pace the majors in dongs.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+2000)

Fernando Tatis Jr. seems to be one of MLB’s lost superstars. Injuries and a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs have negatively affected his reputation, but last year proved that Tatis still belongs among the ranks of the game’s elite young players.

We’ll see if the power he displayed a couple of years ago ever returns. Tatis blasted 42 home runs in the 2021 season, but he hasn’t hit more than 25 in any of his last 2 campaigns after his return from injuries and the suspension. He was still a positive-WAR player, but we’ll see whether he can contend for another MVP award in the upcoming years.

Tatis is another player whose home ballpark will do him no favors, but he still flashes that generational power on occasion. It’s just a matter of staying healthy, which hasn’t been easy for the 26-year-old over the years. Tatis hasn’t ever played in more than 141 games in a season. If he deals with more injuries in 2025, it’ll be hard for him to keep up with the likes of Judge and Ohtani at the forefront of the race.

Top Longshot To Lead MLB In Home Runs

At +3000, Anthony Santander is a longshot, but his power potential shouldn’t be underestimated. If he gets hot, he could surprise everyone and find himself among more well-known stars at the top of the home run leaderboard.

This year, Santander will play for the Toronto Blue Jays after defecting from the Baltimore Orioles in the offseason. Toronto inked Santander to a new 5-year pact worth $92.5 million. He’s never been labeled as one of the game’s true superstars, but Santander has quietly turned himself into a feared power bat.

The Blue Jays are hopeful his power will translate to Toronto. Santander’s 44 home runs last season were easily the most he’s hit in a season in his career, shattering his previous high of 33 set in 2022. Rogers Centre is a bit more power-friendly than Camden Yards with its newer pitcher-friendly dimensions. Santander should also benefit from hitting in the same lineup as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., similar to the way Judge and Ohtani benefit from hitting alongside other All-Stars in their respective batting orders.

You can do worse than taking a flier on Santander’s +3000 odds.

Home Run Leader Predictions

While it’s admittedly difficult to bet against Judge given his incredible power and consistency, I’m not sure taking the shot on his +360 odds is worth the squeeze. If Judge gets off to a slow start – just like he did last year – you can probably jump on his odds if they fall shortly after the season begins.

Ohtani at +650 just seems like the better play. He arguably has just as much raw power as Judge does, and I have plenty of confidence that the Dodgers’ offense will be more consistently productive than the Yankees’, especially now that Juan Soto is gone. The value on Schwarber (+1200) is also tempting, but it’s hard to overlook Ohtani at his aforementioned odds.

Bet: Shohei Ohtani (+650)

Home Run Leaders

The following is a list of the recent players to have the most home runs in a season: