2024 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds and Predictions

This will be the 29^th race of the season and the third race of the Playoffs. Following Bristol’s event, the Playoff field will eliminate four drivers and the 12 remaining teams will continue to compete for the 2024 NASCAR Championship. 

Currently, there are some big names below the cutoff line including Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. However, Hamlin comes into this race as the odds-on favorite to win. The #11 car has won two consecutive races at Bristol Motor Speedway. He’s followed by Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, and Keselowski as the Top 5 betting favorites. 

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds and make our NASCAR Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s night race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Profile

Bristol Motor Speedway’s night race has been part of the Cup Series calendar since 1961. It joins the Food City 500 as one of two annual Bristol races. From 1978 to 2019, this night race was held in August of each year. However, in 2020, it was moved to the final race of the NASCAR Playoffs Round of 16. 

Bristol is a short track, which means there will be plenty of rubbin’ and racin’. It also means that this race is a war of attrition due to the damage that most of the cars receive. 

Bristol Motor Speedway has a concrete surface with a lap length of 0.533 miles. The turns feature banking of 24 to 28 degrees, while the front stretch has 5 to 9 degree banking and the backstretch has 4 to 8 degree banking. 

Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 266 miles
• Total Laps: 500 laps
• Stage 1: 125 laps
• Stage 2: 125 laps
• Final Stage: 250 laps

The Bass Pro Shops Night Race is set to begin at 7:30 pm ET and will air live on USA.

Previous Bass Pro Shops Night Race Winners

Darrell Waltrip holds the record for the most Bristol Night Race victories with seven. He also has the all-time mark for most wins at Bristol Motor Speedway with 12. Among the active drivers, both Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have three wins in this race. 

The following is a list of the most recent winners at Bristol’s Night Race:

• 2023: Denny Hamlin
• 2022: Chris Buescher
• 2021: Kyle Larson
• 2020: Kevin Harvick
• 2019: Denny Hamlin
• 2018: Kurt Busch
• 2017: Kyle Busch
• 2016: Kevin Harvick
• 2015: Joey Logano
• 2014: Joey Logano

Junior Johnson & Associates holds the mark for the most wins in this race with nine. That’s largely due to the victories of two drivers: Waltrip and Cale Yarborough. Chevrolet and Ford are tied for the most wins of this race with 22 apiece. 

Currently, there are six active drivers in this weekend’s field that have won at Bristol: Busch, Hamlin, Keselowski, Logano, Buescher, and Larson.

NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Playoff Drivers

The following drivers are in the 16-car Playoff field. Let’s take a look at how these drivers have fared in the postseason so far, and how they might do at Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend:

Joey Logano 

• Standings: 1
• Playoff Points: 2084
• Race Odds: +1800
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 9

Joey Logano is the only Playoff driver to have already qualified for the Round of 12. He did this by winning the opening Playoff race in Atlanta. Logano followed that up with a 15^th finish at Watkins Glen last weekend. Based on points, Logano slots in at third. But due to the win, he’s listed at the top of the Playoff Standings. 

As mentioned, Logano is one of six active drivers to have won at Bristol. The two-time Cup Series champ has also won twice at Bristol. Both victories came in the Night Race as he won in 2014 and 2015. 

In 28 Bristol starts, Logano has six Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, a 16.3 average finish and 3 DNFs. Unfortunately, Logano has not had a good result in five years. He’s finished outside of the Top 10 in seven consecutive Bristol races. In fact, Logano has finished 22^nd or worse in the last three Bristol races. 

I like for the #22 car to be a Top 15 driver with a Top 10 ceiling and to advance to the next round of the Playoffs. 

Christopher Bell  

• Standings: 2
• Playoff Points: 2089
• Race Odds: +600
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 16

After finishing 14^th at Watkins Glen last Sunday, Christopher Bell has moved up one spot in the standings. He’s put together two decent results in the Playoffs so far. Two weeks ago, Bell was 4^th in Atlanta. 

In six starts at Bristol, Bell has two Top 5s, four Top 10s, 0 DNFs, and a 13.8 average finish which is fifth best among the field. He’s tallied three consecutive Top 10 finishes including a 3^rd in this race last year and a 10^th in this year’s spring Bristol event. 

Bell will advance to the next round, it’s just a matter of how well he performs on Saturday night. I like for Bell to score another Top 10 result. I think the #20 car has a Top 5 ceiling. 

Austin Cindric 

• Standings: 3
• Playoff Points: 2086
• Race Odds: +12500
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 5

Austin Cindric made the biggest jump in the Playoff Standings having moved from 7^th to 3^rd after finishing 10^th at Watkins Glen. It was his second consecutive Top 10 result as the #2 car has capitalized on other Playoff drivers performing poorly over the first two races of the postseason. 

Cindric is lucky that he performed well last weekend because his performances at Bristol have been nothing short of ugly. Cindric’s best result was 20^th in 2022. He finished 32^nd in this race last year and 31^st in this year’s spring event. 

The #2 car will be lucky to crack the Top 20 this weekend. With that said, he should still finish with enough points to advance to the next round by virtue of his two Top 10s so far. 

Alex Bowman 

• Standings: 4
• Playoff Points: 2084
• Race Odds: +2800
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 13

Alex Bowman continues to climb up the Playoff Standings as he moved from 6^th to 4^th due to an 18^th finish at Watkins Glen. Typically, that kind of race result doesn’t move someone up two spots in the standings. However, many other Playoff drivers had very poor results at Watkins Glen. 

Bowman has a 5^th in Atlanta to help his cause in advancing to the next round. He’s going to need it because the #48 car has not fared greatly at Bristol. 

In 14 Bristol starts, Bowman has three Top 5s, four Top 10s, 2 DNFs and a 19.6 average finish. He crashed out of this night race in 2022, was 13^th last year, but finished 4^th in this year’s spring race. 

I think Bowman escapes Bristol with a Top 15 finish and turns his attention towards the Round of 12. 

Daniel Suarez 

• Standings: 5
• Playoff Points: 2079
• Race Odds: +8000
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 7

Just like Cindric, Daniel Suarez also jumped up four spots in the standings. After a runner-up finish in Atlanta, Suarez scored a 13^th finish at Watkins Glen last weekend. He’s very fortunate for these two results because it gives him a real shot at advancing to the next round. 

And, Suarez needs that buffer considering he hasn’t been highly competitive at Bristol in his career. In 12 starts at this track, Suarez has just two Top 10s and a 16.8 average finish. He’s scored six consecutive finishes of 18^th or worse. 

It’s been five years since Suarez has finished in the Top 10 at Bristol. I don’t see that happening this weekend. However, the #99 car should slot into his usual range of Top 15 to Top 20 and advance to the next round. 

Tyler Reddick 

• Standings: 6
• Playoff Points: 2073
• Race Odds: +1800
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 19

Tyler Reddick has been a machine this season with his consistent Top 10 finishes and staying out of trouble for the most part. Unfortunately, he dropped two spots in the standings after finishing 27^th at Watkins Glen last weekend. That snapped a two-race Top 10 streak. 

At Bristol, Reddick has one Top 5, one Top 10, a 20.3 average finish and 1 DNF in six starts. This is hardly stats that instill confidence in any bettor. 

He was 30^th in this year’s spring race, 15^th in the 2023 night race, and 25^th in the 2022 race. It’s highly unlikely that we see Reddick pull off a Top 5 finish. But I can see him being a Top 15 driver with a Top 10 ceiling and advancing to the next round. 

Chase Elliott 

• Standings: 7 
• Playoff Points: 2073
• Race Odds: +1800
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 13

Chase Elliott hasn’t performed at a high level in quite some time this year. He was 8^th in Atlanta and 19^th at Watkins Glen. The latter was a huge disappointment considering that Elliott is one of the best road course drivers in the Cup Series. 

Fortunately, Bristol is a track where Elliott has performed well at even though he has yet to win there in his Cup Series career. In 14 starts, Elliott has four Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and an 11.6 average finish which is tied with Kyle Larson for the best among the field. 

Elliott has four Top 8 finishes in the last five Bristol races including three in a row. He was 8^th in this year’s spring race, 7^th in the 2023 night race, and 2^nd in the 2022 night race. That’s a 5.6 average finish over his last three finishes at BMS.

I like for Elliott to be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling this weekend. And, with a little luck he might just get up there and compete for the checkered flag. The #9 car will advance to the next round of the Playoffs. 

Ryan Blaney 

• Standings: 8
• Playoff Points: 2072
• Race Odds: +1800
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 12

I faded Ryan Blaney at Watkins Glen last weekend and I will fade him again this weekend at Bristol. The defending Cup Series champ crashed out of the race on the opening laps and finished 38^th at Watkins Glen. It also led to Blaney dropping from 2^nd to 8^th in the standings. 

Blaney still has some wiggle room and enough buffer to advance to the next round but it will be very close. The #12 car is not a great driver at Bristol.

In 15 BMS starts, Blaney has two Top 5s, five Top 10s, and a 19.5 average finish with 2 DNFs. He has just one Top 10 in the last six Bristol races. Blaney finished 16^th in the spring, 22^nd in last year’s race, and 30^th in the 2022 night race. 

At best, Blaney is a Top 15 driver with a Top 10 ceiling. Considering he’s had just one Top 10 in the last five years at Bristol, a 15^th to 20^th result would be more likely this weekend. Avoid Blaney this Saturday night. If you are a fan of him, hold your breath because it’s going to be a close call in advancing to the next round.

Kyle Larson 

• Standings: 9
• Playoff Points: 2069
• Race Odds: +600
• Wins: 4
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 13

Has there been a bigger disappointment in the Playoffs than Kyle Larson. Sure, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski also come to mind, but Larson was the odds-on favorite to win the Cup Series Championship and the best driver heading into the postseason.

Now, he sits in 9^th and a wreck away from being eliminated. Larson was 37^th in Atlanta and 12^th at Watkins Glen last weekend. He was fortunate to pick up some stage points in last Sunday’s race as he could’ve fallen lower in the Playoff Standings.

Larson needs a strong run this weekend, and he should get it at Bristol. In 16 BMS starts, Larson has one win, six Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and an 11.6 average finish which is tied for the best among the field.

Larson has also scored nine Top 10 finishes in the last 10 races at this track. He’s also tallied five consecutive Top 6 results, four Top 5 finishes, and a victory over that span in 2021.

I expect Larson to bounce back from two poor showings in the Playoffs and challenge for the checkered flag this Saturday night.

William Byron 

• Standings: 10
• Playoff Points: 2068
• Race Odds: +1600
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 14

After finishing 9^th in Atlanta, William Byron finished 34^th at Watkins Glen and fell from 5^th to 10^th in the standings. It was his third finish of 27^th or worse in his last four races on the season. It’s also put him a poor Bristol finish away from missing the next round of the Playoffs. Byron is 25 points ahead of the 13^th spot.

In 10 Bristol starts, Byron has two Top 5s, four Top 10s, and a 17.4 average finish. He was 35^th in the spring race this year, which snapped a three-race Top 9 finishing streak. Byron has a 5.0 average finish in the last three Bristol Night Races.

I don’t see Byron finishing in the Top 5 this weekend, but a Top 10 result will cement his advancement into the next round. Byron is a Top 15 driver with a Top 10 ceiling this Saturday.

Chase Briscoe 

• Standings: 11
• Playoff Points: 2049
• Race Odds: +3000
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 8

Here’s where things get really tight in the Playoff Standings. Both Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs are tied in points. Additionally, they’re just six points above the cutoff line and ahead of Denny Hamlin.

Briscoe had the best finish among Playoff drivers last weekend in Watkins Glen. He scored a 6^th after crashing out of Atlanta two races ago. Keep in mind, Briscoe only got into the Playoffs due to winning at Darlington in the final race of the regular season.

With that said, Briscoe moved up from 16^th to 11^th in the Playoff Standings and has a fighting chance to advance to the next round. Albeit, Briscoe will need help from other drivers if he wants to advance.

In four Bristol starts, Briscoe has never finished higher than 13^th. But his 16.8 average finish is solid for a young driver at a tough track.

It’s going to take some luck and help from others. Yet, I have a hard time seeing that happen. He was 27^th here last year in the night race and is not going to beat out Hamlin or Keselowski who are below him. In fact, I don’t see Briscoe beating out Gibbs either.

I see Briscoe scoring a 15^th to 20^th finish and being eliminated from the Playoffs.

Ty Gibbs 

• Standings: 12 
• Playoff Points: 2049
• Race Odds: +700
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 11

Ty Gibbs remains in 12^th spot due to his 22^nd finish at Watkins Glen last weekend. That followed a 17^th in Atlanta two weeks ago. Yet, he did lead 37 laps in Atlanta.

The biggest reason why I like Gibbs to advance over Briscoe is that the JGR diver has fared better at Bristol than Briscoe has.

After his first Bristol race ended with car problems and a 35^th finish in 2022, Gibbs has two consecutive Top 9 results, which is a 7.0 average finish. He was 5^th in this race last year and is poised for a solid run this weekend. I believe he will advance to the next round by a few points.

Denny Hamlin

• Standings: 13
• Playoff Points: 2043
• Race Odds: +350
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 12

It’s now or never for Denny Hamlin. Either he races as the odds-on favorite and finishes high enough to advance to the Round of 12 or Hamlin gets eliminated after another subpar outing.

Hamlin fell from 13^th to 11^th in the Playoff Standings after a 23^rd finish at Watkins Glen last weekend. That result followed a 24^th finish in Atlanta two weeks ago. Hamlin started the Playoffs in the Top 5 but is now below the cutoff line and in danger of being axed from the postseason.

There’s no other Cup Series driver more excited for Bristol than Hamlin. The #11 car has four wins, 11 Top 5s, 18 Top 10s, and a 13.6 average finish in 34 starts.

Hamlin has won two consecutive Bristol races and three of the last seven. He’s won the Bristol Night Race on three occasions including last year’s race.

I expect Hamlin to be the car to beat on Saturday night. With how inconsistent he’s been in the Playoffs; I wouldn’t say he’s a lock to win. However, Hamlin is definitely a Top 10 driver with a race-win ceiling.

Brad Keselowski 

• Standings: 14
• Playoff Points: 2037
• Race Odds: +1000
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 12

Like Hamlin and Larson, Brad Keselowski has been a big disappointment in the Playoffs. He entered the postseason 8^th in the standings and has fallen to 14^th.

Keselowski was a favorite for Atlanta, but finished 19^th. He followed that up with a 26^th at Watkins Glen and now sits on the wrong side of the cutoff line. Like Hamlin, Keselowski is a big fan of Bristol.

In 26 BMS starts, Keselowski has three wins, seven Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and a 15.8 average finish. He also has never tallied a DNF. That’s impressive considering the nature of Bristol races.

In his last seven Bristol races, Keselowski has one win, two Top 5s, five Top 10s, and six Top 13s. He was third in the spring race this year and eight in last year’s night race.

I believe Keselowski will finish in the Top 10. He might even crack the Top 5 if things go his way. This would put the #6 car in contention to advance to the next round. It’s going to be a close call between Keselowski, Blaney, and Gibbs for that final Playoff spot.

Martin Truex Jr.  

• Standings: 15 
• Playoff Points: 205
• Race Odds: +1600
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 9

The sun is about to set on Martin Truex’s Playoffs as he’s below the cutoff line and offers very little hope of advancing to the next round. It’s pretty clear why Truex is set on retiring after the season. His last two months of the season has been a microcosm of his year as a whole. Over the last seven races, Truex has finished 20^th or worse. He’s also had two DNFs in the last three races and can’t seem to find his way back to victory lane.

He definitely won’t find his way to Bristol’s winner circle on Saturday night as Truex has never won at this track in 34 starts. He has just three Top 5s, five Top 10s, a 20.2 average finish and 5 DNFs.

Truex was second in the spring race and led 54 laps, but that was just the third time he’s ever cracked the Top 5. Truex would need a similar result to have any shot at advancing. And, I don’t see it happening. More than likely, Truex ends up in trouble and finishes around 20^th.

Harrison Burton  

• Standings: 16
• Playoff Points: 2029
• Race Odds: +30000
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2

Harrison Burton’s won’t advance to the next round of the Playoffs. Yet, he still had a great season just by making the Playoffs. Unfortunately, the magic carpet ride ends this weekend as Burton has never finished in the Top 15 at Bristol.

In three starts, he has a 25.3 average finish, which is the worst among all Playoff drivers. He was 32^nd in the spring race and 28^th in last year’s night race.

Maybe Burton can sneak a win in the final months of the season after being eliminated from the Playoffs and having no pressure on him.

Go Bowling at The Bass Pro Shops Night Race

The following drivers are not qualified for the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, but they still offer value at Bristol Motor Speedway: 

Chris Buescher +1600

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 13

Chris Buescher narrowly missed out on making the Playoffs. Yet, he hasn’t let that stop him from still succeeding this season. Buescher won at Watkins Glen last weekend in stunning fashion. It was the first win for the #17 car on the Season and his 4^th Top 10 in his last five races.

Buescher has also won at Bristol before, having taken the checkered flag in the 2022 night race. Over his last five Bristol starts, Buescher has four Top 8s and a victory. He was 7^th in the spring race and 4^th in the 2023 night race.

Buescher is a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling this weekend.

Kyle Busch +2200

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

You can’t talk about Bristol without thinking of Kyle Busch. Sure, Denny Hamlin gets a lot of attention and rightfully so, but Busch has the most Bristol wins among active drivers with eight. He also has the most Top 5s and Top 10s among the field. And, he’s tied with Hamlin for the most Bristol night race victories with three.

Busch hasn’t cracked the Top 20 at Bristol in five races when he had a streak of four Top 4s in four races and another streak of three wins in four Bristol races.

I like for the #8 car to be a Top 15 driver with a Top 10 ceiling this weekend. Maybe a crash or two opens the door for Busch to steal his ninth Bristol win.

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Kyle Larson (+100) is my choice as the best Top 5 bet for this Bristol race. He’s scored four Top 5s in a row and six in his last eight races. Additionally, he has a 5.7 average finish in his last 10 Bristol races.

Larson was 5^th in the spring race, 2^nd in the 2023 night race, 5^th in the 2022 night race and won the 2021 Bristol race. With his Playoff life on the line, and two poor performance in a row, Larson should bounce back for a strong result and at least a Top 5 finish.

The Best Top 10 Bet Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Chase Elliott (+100) offers solid value for finishing in the Top 10. He’s tied with Larson for the best average finish at Bristol (11.6). He also has eight Top 10s in 14 starts, which is a 57.1% Top 10 finishing rate.

Elliott has four Top 10s in his last five races at this track, including three in a row. Over his last three Bristol races, Elliott has a 5.6 average finish. He’s also never scored a DNF at this track.

Which Drivers Are Eliminated From The Playoffs?

Burton, Truex and Briscoe will be eliminated. The last spot comes down to Blaney, Gibbs or Keselowski. It’s going to be a tough challenge for all three of those drivers considering their Playoff Standings and past experiences at Bristol.

With that in mind, I will say that Keselowski gets eliminated after coming up a few points short in his quest to advance to the Round of 12.

NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag? 

Bristol can be a tough race to predict due to all the wrecks and aggressive driving. Not to mention, many drivers are not great on the short tracks.

With that said, I like Hamlin, Larson, Bell, Buescher and Elliott, Keselowski or Gibbs to finish in the Top 5 at Bristol this weekend.

I picked Larson to win at Watkins Glen last weekend and he let me down. I’m tempted to pick him for a second straight week. Yet, there’s something pulling me towards Denny Hamlin. He’s desperate to finish high or he faces elimination.

I’m taking Hamlin to win a third consecutive Bristol race and advance to the next round of the Playoffs. Larson at +600 offers better value and he’s almost as desperate as Hamlin is this weekend.

Bet: Denny Hamlin (+350)

NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Finish Top 3: Keselowski or Logano (+170)

There are numerous pairings you can choose from to finish in the Top 3. However, I like this one largely because of the juicy odds. And, we can’t forget to mention, both Logano and Keselowski have won at Bristol before. Combined, they have five Bristol victories, 13 Top 5s, and 20 Top 10s. They’re also both in the Top 10 for average finish.

Keselowski has a ton of pressure to race well in order to advance to the next round of the Playoffs. Logano has zero pressure as he’s already locked into the Round of 12. One of them has a decent shot at finishing in the Top 3.

Bet: Keselowski or Logano (+170)

Winning Manufacturer

• Toyota (+105)
• Chevrolet (+220)
• Ford (+250)

I have Hamlin winning this race, and he drives a Toyota. Both Bell and Gibs also drive Toyota and they’re two of my Top 5 candidates. But this is a good chance to hedge our bets and go with Chevy. There’s plenty of strong Chevy drivers including Larson, Elliott and Busch.

Bet: Chevrolet (+220)

Quaker State 400 Group Winner

• Chase Elliott (+250)
• Ryan Blaney (+250)
• Tyler Reddick (+250)
• Kyle Busch (+275)

Blaney has a 19.5 average finish, Reddick a 20.3, and Busch has a 14.2 average finish. However, it’s Elliott with the best mark of them all at 11.6. Additionally, Elliott has had better results over the last few races at Bristol than any of these other drivers.

Busch might have the most wins, Top 5s, and Top 10s among active drivers at Bristol, he hasn’t fared well the last handful of races there. Blaney and Reddick have less Top 5s and Top 10s combined than Elliott does.

Elliott is a sneaky play this weekend as he could challenge for the checkered flag. However, I have him as my best Top 10 bet and to win this group prop bet.

Bet: Chase Elliott (+250)

Team of Race Winner 

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+110)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+300)
• RFK Racing (+600)
• Team Penske (+850)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+1200)
• 23XI Racing (+1400)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2000)
• Trackhouse Racing (+2500)

Hamlin drives for Joe Gibbs Racing as does Bell, Gibbs and Truex. With that said, Hendrick features Larson, Elliott, Byron and Bowman. I think the race winners comes from one of these two teams.

I picked Hamlin to beat out Larson for the win, but I would like to hedge my bets here and take Hendrick Motorsports. I like the drivers and the value of this betting option.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+300)