2025 NASCAR Championship Odds and Predictions

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The calendars are changing over to February, and you all know what that means – it’s NASCAR time. That’s right racin’ fans, NASCAR’s top racing series will all start their seasons by mid-February. For the Cuper Series, the sport’s most popular series, the season begins with the running of the 2025 Daytona 500.

The NASCAR Championship odds have not changed much since they opened last November following Joey Logano’s third career Cup Series Championship. However, there have been a number changes to the sport itself. We’ll discuss some of the major changes to the NASCAR Cup Series including the first ever in-season tournament.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds, courtesy of the best sports betting sites, and make our early NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions.

2025 NASCAR Cup Series Season Changes

Before we get into our NASCAR odds and predictions for this futures bet, let’s take a look at some of the major changes to the upcoming Cup Series season:

A Return To Bowman Gray Stadium: NASCAR moved their Clash exhibition race from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to Bowman Gray Stadium. This is the first time that the Cup Series has raced here since 1971. Get more info about the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray.

NASCAR Heads to Mexico: The Cup Series will have its first points race outside of the US since 1958. It’s also the first time ever racing in Mexico. That event will take place on June 15.

In-Season Cup Series Tournament: NASCAR will hold its first in-season tournament that will span over five races from June 28 to July 27. Only 32 Drivers will compete with each race reducing the field. The final race will take place at Dover and the winner will receive $1 million dollars.

New TV Partners: NASCAR’s Cup Series will remain on FOX and NBC as usual. However, races and practices will also be found on Prime Video and TNT this year as well.

2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

NASCAR Championship Betting Favorites

The following drivers are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Each driver listed below, features their 2024 Cup Series season stats along with their career best finish:

Kyle Larson +500

• Wins: 6
• Top 5: 15
• Top 10: 18
• 2024 Finish: 6^th
• Career Best: 2021 Champion

Despite leading the Cup Series with six wins and 15 Top 5s, Larson failed to make the Final 4 and contend for a championship last year. He seemed poised for a second championship but fell short in the Round of 8.

Larson’s six wins were the most he’s had since 10 victories in 2021, which was the year he won his first Cup Series Championship.

This year, Larson is still the odds-on favorite to win the 2025 Championship. He’s also the leader of Hendrick Motorsports, which is one of the best teams in the sport.

Larson has made the Playoffs every year except 2020, which was the season he got into off-track troubles. He won two races in the postseason last year along with four in the regular season.

Although he finished 6^th last year, I fully expect Larson to get back to the Championship Race this season and compete for his second title.

Christopher Bell +550

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 15
• Top 10: 3
• 2024 Finish: 5^th
• Career Best: 3^rd in 2022

Christopher Bell had arguable the best season of his young Cup Series career. Although Denny Hamlin gets most of the attention at Joe Gibbs Racing, Bell was arguably the best driver for the team.

The #20 car put up career highs with 15 Top 5s and 23 Top 10s. He was a perennial favorite each and every week. For the most part, he delivered. 23 Top 10s out of 36 races led the field last year. It also helped him score the second-best average finish on the year (12.8).

Bell was one of two drivers to get disqualified last postseason, which kept him from heading to the Championship Race. NASCAR ruled that the 29-year-old driver had violated a safety rule at the end of the Xfinity 500 in Martinsville to close out the Round of 8.

With that said, Bell has three consecutive Top 5 finishes on the year and has made the Playoffs four straight years. His best result was 3^rd in 2022, and I think he could surpass that this year.

Bell is a real contender this year with a strong team, solid car, and the skills to win on any type of track. others. However, will he be our opening pick to win it all next year?

Ryan Blaney +700 

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 18
• 2024 Finish: 2^nd 
• Career Best: 2023 Champion

Can you imagine finishing 0.33 seconds away from a second straight Cup Series Championship? Well, that’s exactly what happened to Blaney. He came a blink of an eye away from accomplishing a feat that hasn’t happened since the era of the great Jimmie Johnson.

The season didn’t start off so hot for the 2023 Cup Champion. He was a Top 15 driver for most of the regular season. It wasn’t until the summer that he started picking up the pace and the wins. Eventually, two victories would earn him a Playoff spot and the shot at another title.

In the Playoffs, Blaney picked up a crucial win to advance to the Final 4. It was the race that Bell was disqualified in as well. With that said, there’s no reason to think that the #12 car can’t make another run at a second championship in three years.

I’ve never been a huge Blaney fan, but he’s certainly a talented driver with a Championship and a runner-up on his resume. Considering that he’s still in his prime, Blaney could be a solid wager throughout the year and for this NASCAR prop bet.

Denny Hamlin +700

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 18
• 2024 Finish: 8^th
• Career Best: 3^rd in 2014 and 2021.

The 43-year-old Denny Hamlin doesn’t have many more years left at the level he’s currently competing at. So, the #11 car really needs to step it up this year. An 8^th place finish last year is not going to cut it for Hamlin or his JGR team.

Last year, Hamlin started off as one of the best drivers as he won three races before the summer. Unfortunately, he didn’t pick up another victory all year long.

Although he was a consistent Top 10 driver for the second half of the season and into the Playoffs, Hamlin failed to advance to the Championship race which would’ve been the fourth time in the last six years.

Hamlin’s 8^th place finish was the second lowest since 2015. He finished 11^th in 2019. I expect the #11 car to surpass that 8^th place this year.

With that said, it’s hard for me to think Hamlin will surpass these younger guns. In fact, his 23XL drivers in Wallace and Reddick could actually have a better shot at the championship than Hamlin this year. I would avoid him for this bet.

William Byron +700         

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 13
• Top 10: 21
• 2024 Finish: 3^rd
• Career Best: 3^rd in 2023 and 2024

Out of all of the talented drivers on Hendrick Motorsports, William Byron finished as the best of the bunch. In fact, he was one of the best drivers for most of the season and is definitely being overlooked heading into the 2025 campaign.

Byron finished third last year, which was his second straight season with a third-place result. He also put up similar numbers to his breakout year of 2023. The #24 car proved that 2023 wasn’t a fluke. And, now, he’s aiming for another strong run and potentially returning to the Championship Race for a third straight year.

Byron started off 2024 strong with a Daytona 500 win. He also finished the year strong with seven consecutive Top 6 finishes to close out the Playoffs.

To be honest, I was so impressed with Byron’s Playoff consistency that I picked him to win the Championship at the start of the Final Round. Unfortunately, he came up short behind the two Team Penske drivers.

Heading into the 2025 season, I rank Byron as the second-best driver at Hendrick Motorsports. That’s not something to overlook because the team also includes Chase Elliott (2020 Champ) and my longshot pick for this year – Alex Bowman.

I still give Larson the edge of Byron, but it’s not by match. Byron has closed the gap on Larson since his 2021 Championship. With Elliott and Larson both winning titles for Hendrick Motorsports, can Byron do it next?to next year and he’s definitely worthy of consideration for winning the 2025 Cup Series Championship.

Joey Logano +900

• Wins: 4
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 13
• 2024 Finish: First
• Career Best: 2018, 2022, 2024 Champion

I’ve never shared this story before, but my son’s favorite driver is Joey Logano. He’s rooted for Logano for over the last 10 years all because the #22 was his number way back in kindergarten. Although Larson is my favorite driver, we’ve always loosely cheered for Logano throughout these years.

Plus, spending time with my dad (who has been a NASCAR fan since the 70s) and my son watching races, is one of the greatest joys of being a NASCAR fan. My dad got me into being an Earnhardt Sr. and Jr. fan. Larson is from near where I live, so it was natural to root for him especially after Jr. retired. But I digress.

Logano definitely got some luck in the Playoffs to advance due to another driver being disqualified. So, I understand some of the frustrations. However, we’re talking about a three-time Cup Series Champion. So, luck and skill were definitely involved in his run to a third title.

Let’s not forget that he won two Playoff races to advance throughout the rounds in addition to help from a DQ. And, then he picked up his fourth win of the year by taking the checkered flag in the Championship Race.

If you find yourself criticizing Logano and the current Playoff format, then you should take a deep breath and chill. The format is solid enough to promote a true winner.

Can Logano win a second consecutive NASCAR Championship and third in the last four years? Is Logano the new Jimmie Johnson? Is he worth betting on?

Best NASCAR Championship Betting Value

The following drivers offer betting value to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship based on their current odds and previous racing success:

Chase Elliott +1000

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 19
• 2024 Finish: 7^th
• Career Best: 2020 Champion

Despite finishing 7^th, I believe that Chase Elliott had a disappointing season. In fact, it’s the second straight year where you could say he was a disappointment.

Elliott missed the Playoffs in 2023 and then failed to advance out of the Round of 8 this last postseason. But his regular season numbers were just putrid last year. The #9 car, team and driver failed recapture their 2020 Championship form.

Not including 2023, where it was an incomplete season, Elliott had his lowest win total (1) since 2017 when he had zero. He also had his lowest Top 5s (11) and Top 10s (19) since 2019.

The one thing that really stood out to me was the fact that Elliott didn’t win one road course race last year. That’s his bread and butter. He’s widely considered to be the best road course driver among the full time Cup Series cars.

With that said, I do like Elliott’s chances of turning things around this year. He’s far too talented of a driver to continue a trend of disappointment and mediocre results. I think he gets back to winning multiple road races in 2025 and makes a run at another Championship Race appearance. them. I have faith that the #9 team and Hendrick Motorsports as a whole, will help turn things around for the former champ.

Chase Briscoe +2000

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 9
• 2024 Finish: 14^th
• Career Best: 9^th in 2022

I am really high on Chase Briscoe this season. The talented driver is replacing Martin Truex Jr. in the #19 car and driving for Joe Gibbs Racing after his former team Stewart-Haas racing folded.

JGR Owner, Joe Gibbs, is high on Briscoe and thinks the talented driver is has the character and skills to win races this season. That’s all I needed to hear, to jump on board the Briscoe express train.

For his career, Briscoe has two Cup Series victories, 11 Xfinity Series wins and two Craftsman Tuck Series wins. He’s made the Playoffs in two of the last three seasons and twice in his four-year career as a full-time Cup Series driver. I expect that trend to continue this year as all four JGR cars should make the postseason.

In fact, I would not be surprised if this move to JGR cements Briscoe as a Top 10 driver next year and a true Playoff contender. To me, that screams betting value.

Top Longshot To Win NASCAR Championship

Alex Bowman (+3300) is my top longshot choice to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. I view him in a similar light as Briscoe. He drivers for Hendrick Motorsports, which is one of the best racing teams along with Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske.

Bowman’s disqualification in the Round of 12 was the reason for Logano’s advancement. Otherwise, he would’ve moved on to the Round of 8. That could’ve been a huge break for him considering that Bowman was racing really well at that point.

He had two Top 9 finishes in the opening round of the Playoffs and a 10.6 average finish, which was notably higher than his 14.8 average finish on the season.

Bowman finished with an 8.3 average finish, two Top 7 finishes, and three Top 13 finishes in the Round of 8. There’s a chance that he could’ve advanced to the Final 4 if given the chance.

Bowman is the 4th best driver for Hendrick. However, that’s not a slight against him considering just how talented the entire team is. The #48 car had career-best finishes with eight Top 5s and 17 Top 10s last year.

With the way his 2024 title run ended, and his strong run over the final stretch of the season, I like for Bowman to be a Playoff contender this year and possible even move up the ladder in Hendrick Motorsports.

Who Wins the 2025 NASCAR Championship?

My NASCAR picks for the Top 5 drivers heading into the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season are are Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney. In other words, the three top teams (Hendrick, JGR, Team Penske) will contend for another NASCAR Championship.

Team Penske has won three Cup Series Championships in a row: Logano (2022, 2024) and Blaney (2023). And, even when Logano won last year, Blaney finished 2^nd. So, you have to like their chances this year as well.

Prior to Team Penske’s title run, Hendrick Motorsports captured two championships in a row when Chase Elliott won in 2020, and Larson in 2021.

Joe Gibbs Racing hasn’t won a title since 2019, when former driver Kyle Busch won his second. Busch also won in 2015 with JGR.

At the start of the 2025 season, I have JGR as the third best team on the circuit. I like Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports to have better results by time it’s all said and done.

For me, I think the champion will come from Hendrick Motorsports. I really like both Byron and Larson this season. Additionally, you can’t count out Elliott returning to championship form or Bowman to take the next step in his evolution.

These four drivers can win on any track and have some of the best cars week in and week out. All four drivers finished in the Top 9 of the standings last year. And, since Elliott’s 2020 title, Hendrick Motorsports has had drivers compete in the Championship Race each season.

Some will call it bias, and I understand, but I still lean towards Larson being the best driver on Hendrick and the Cup Series field. He finished with six wins but slowed down in the Round of 8 last year. He was a few laps away from advancing to the Final 4, but came up short.

Take Larson to win the Championship, but be flexible to pivot to one of his teammates if they get off to a hot start.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+500)

Recent NASCAR Champions

The following list only includes the winners during the current Playoff format, which began in 2015: