2024 NASCAR Championship Odds and Predictions

Following the conclusion of the NASCAR Bank of America ROVAL from Charlotte Motor Speedway’s hybrid road course and track, on Sunday, October 13, the Cup Series Playoffs executed another round of eliminations.

Like a few weeks ago following the conclusion of Round 1, four drivers were eliminated from the Playoffs as the postseason now moves into Round 3, also known as the Round of 8. Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe were eliminated after the Charlotte road race last weekend.

The field of eight remaining Playoff drivers will compete in the third round of three races beginning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the South Point 400 presented by ESPN Bet on Sunday, October 20.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR odds, courtesy of the best sports betting sites, and make our NASCAR Cup Series Championship predictions.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Eligible Drivers

Check out the 8 driver Playoff field and how each of them is positioned heading into the postseason. The rankings are based on the Playoff Standings and will be updated at the conclusion of each Playoff Round:

Kyle Larson (+375)

• Playoff Standings: 1
• Wins: 6
• Top 5: 13
• Top 10: 16

Kyle Larson’s postseason quest to win a second Cup Series Championship started off a bit roughly as he crashed out of the Quaker State 400 in Atlanta and dropped in the Playoff standings.

However, the best driver during the regular season, Larson turned things around with a 12^th at Watkins Glen and then a dominating performance at Bristol’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Like the first round, Larson had a poor performance in the first race of the Round of 12 as he finished 26^th. However, he pulled out one of his career-best performances at Talladega by finishing fourth. Larson followed that up by winning the Bank of America ROVAL 400 race to conclude the round.

Larson now has two wins in the Playoffs and three Top 5s. He continues to be the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 Cup Series Championship. Surprisingly, there’s still value in Larson’s odds heading into the Round of 8.

Currently, Larson’s odds have only shrunk from +400, over the first two rounds, to just +375 odds. For a driver who has been the class of the field all year long, +375 is a great opportunity to for a nice return on a wager to win the Cup Series Championship.  

Christopher Bell (+450)

• Playoff Standings: 2
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 20

Christopher Bell’s Playoff run has gone as well as he could’ve hoped for, just short of scoring a victory. He’s finished in the Top 14 for all six races. This includes three Top 5s and five Top 7s. Bell closed out the Round of 16 with a 5^th at Bristol. He closed out the Round of 12 with a second at the ROVAL.

I expect this consistency to continue in the Round of 8 as we see Bell make a run at his third consecutive appearance in the Championship 4 race.

As for his odds, Bell’s Championship line remains the same as last round. Yet, it offers some decent value considering he’s one of the favorites to make the Final 4 race.

Tyler Reddick (+500)

• Playoff Standings: 3
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 19

At the start of the Playoffs, I felt strongly about Tyler Reddick making it to the Championship 4 race. He won the regular season title due to his consistency. I thought that would translate to the Playoffs, but it has not happened.

Prior to the Round of 12 getting underway, I stated that I felt less confident in Reddick at that point than the start of the Playoffs. Well, you can guess it, I no longer think that the #45 car will make it to the Final 4.

In six Playoff races, Reddick has one Top 10 and four finishes of 20^th or worse. This is not a driver that looks poised to contend for the title, as he did at the end of August.

In regards to his betting line, his odds are the third lowest to win the title. I believe that anyone backing Reddick, whether it’s sportsbooks or top handicappers, are overvaluing a driver who has gone from “Mr. Consistent” in the regular season, to “Mr. Unreliable” in the Playoffs.

William Byron (+650) 

• Playoff Standings: 4
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 17

William Byron started off with a Top 10 finish in Atlanta, but he ran into a few issues at Watkins Glen and Bristol that dropped his championship odds. However, Byron’s impressive run in the Round of 12 has the #24 car looking like one of the top drivers remaining.

Over the last three Playoff races, Byron has finished in the Top 3 for all of them. His consistency has returned and the #24 car is heating up at the right time.

I like Byron’s chances to get into the Final Four and to compete with Larson, Bell and Hamlin for the NASCAR Championship. I also think his championship odds offer the best value outside of Joey Logano.

At +650, these odds have improved from the +750 heading into the Round of 12 but are still higher than his odds heading into the Playoffs at +600. For a driver with serious momentum headlining into the Round of 8, +650 is very appealing.

Ryan Blaney (+600)

• Playoff Standings: 5
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 15

The reigning Cup Series Champion Ryan Blaney started off the Playoffs with a 3^rd in Atlanta and everyone started talking about back-to-back Championships. A Watkins Glen crash halted those talks the very next week. He rebounded nicely with a 6^th in Bristol and a 4^th in Kansas.

I predicted Blaney to advance into the Round of 8, but another crash in Talladega and a 10^th at ROVAL last weekend, have me thinking that the #12 car is too inconsistent to upstage guys like Larson, Bell, Hamlin and Byron.

Blaney might be the reigning Cup Series Champion, but he’s overvalued with the latest line of +600 odds. The #12 car features a talented driver, but it’s going to take a victory in the Round of 8 for Blaney to advance to the Final 4. And, I don’t see that happening.

Denny Hamlin (+600) 

• Playoff Standings: 6
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 15

Denny Hamlin entered the postseason as the co-betting favorite alongside Larson. However, he barely made it out of the opening round and no longer appears to be the co-favorite. In fact, as we head into the Round of 8, I would slot him behind Bell and Byron as the Top 4 favorites.

Hamlin’s Round of 12 performance showed everyone why he’s still my pick to make it to the Championship race in Phoenix.

Over the second grouping of three races, Hamlin scored a 10.6 average finish with two Top 10s. As long as he can stay out of trouble in the Round of 8, look for the #11 car to once again contend for the Cup Series Championship.

Just because I like Hamlin to make the Final 4, doesn’t mean I like his +600 odds to win the Championship. Of my final four drivers, I actually like him the least to win. And, that’s because it’s been half a year since Hamlin last won a race.

While Larson keeps winning, and both Byron and Bell are finishing in the Top 3, the #11 car seems to think a Top 5 result is good enough to capture the 2024 Cup Series Championship. That’s not the case.

Chase Elliott (+1000)  

• Playoff Standings: 7
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 16

Chase Elliott didn’t enter the postseason with much momentum. However, the #9 car finished 8^th in Atlanta, 19^th in Watkins Glen and 2^nd at Bristol, which put him in a good position heading into the Round of 12.

He started off strong with a 9^th in Kansas before a 29^th in Talladega. Unlike the Go Bowling at the Glen road race, where he finished a disappointing 19^th, Elliott returned to road racing form with a 5^th at the ROVAL to close out the round.

With that said, there’s just something missing from Elliott this year. He’s good enough to be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling, but he’s not good enough to win races. With two road races in the Playoffs, many thought that Elliott could win one of them. Unfortunately, he didn’t even lead a lap in those races.

I don’t see Elliott advancing out of this round. It’s going to take other drivers to crash out or an incredible amount of luck for the #9 car to make it to the Championship Race.

Sportsbooks feel the same way as Elliott has the second highest odds to win this year’s title at +1000, and he’s favored (-250) to miss out on advancing to the Final 4. As you can see from above, I agree with the #9 car being eliminated in the Round of 8.

Joey Logano (+1200)

• Playoff Standings: 8
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

Once again, Joey Logano has shocked the field after another round of Playoff races. He started off the postseason by winning in Atlanta. That automatically advanced him to the Round of 12. From there, Logano scored four straight finishes of 14^th or worse, with two being 28^th or worse.

Heading into Charlotte’s ROVAL race, Logano was sitting below the cutoff line and in danger of missing out on the Round of 8. The #22 car was able to finish 8^th in this race, which I predicted him to be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling.

With that said, it took Alex Bowman getting disqualified for Logano to advance to the Round of 8. Unfortunately for the two-time Cup Series champ, his luck will most likely run out as I don’t see him advancing to the next round.

Although the oddsmakers have shifted Logano from +1600 to +1200 to win the title, he’s still too much of a longshot to win the title. With that said, he does offer +270 odds to make the Final 4.

If you were looking for a flier with a nice payout, then this could be an option. Logano has three career wins at Las Vegas and a 9.9 average finish. If he can turn back the hands of time, and win the race, the #22 car is locked into the Championship Race.

To Make Round of 4

Let’s dwindle down this field per Playoff round, and make our way to the Final 4 drivers.

Round of 16

The Round of 16 has completed as of the Bristol Night Race.  Burton, Gibbs, Truex, and Keselowski were eliminated.

Just prior to the start of the Playoffs, I picked Suarez, Briscoe, Burton and Gibbs to be eliminated. However, I thought Truex would be able to flip things and bump out Suarez. That didn’t happen as Truex was the one getting the boot.

I also thought that Keselowski would make it to the next round. Like Truex, Keselowski let me down with his poor performances in this round of Playoff races.

Eliminated: Keselowski, Truex, Burton, Gibbs

Round of 12

The Round of 12 featured a superspeedway race, a road course, and a mid-size track. My initial predictions were as follows:

Initially, this is where I thought Cindric and Bowman would get eliminated. I’m sticking with that prediction. However, I also see Briscoe and Suarez not making it to the Round of 8.

That’s exactly what happened as those four drivers were eliminated following the ROVAL race in Charlotte. However, how we got there was a bit surprising.

Joey Logano should’ve been eliminated, but Alex Bowman was disqualified after the ROVAL race and ended up being eliminated instead. I said in my ROVAL betting preview that I thought Logano would make it into the Round of 8, I just didn’t know who would get pushed out. And, I certainly didn’t expect a DQ.

Eliminated: Briscoe, Suarez, Cindric, Bowman 

Round of 8

At this stage of the Playoffs, your guess is as good as mine in regards to which drivers advance. I thought Keselowski could make it to this round, but he choked in the opening round of the Playoffs. Same with Truex.

Initially, I had Elliott and Byron joining Keselowski and Truex by being eliminated at the conclusion of the Round of 8. Now, I have Blaney and Logano getting bumped.

Heading into Las Vegas, I’m sticking with my thoughts of Elliott, Blaney, Logano getting the boot. However, I like for Byron to bump out Tyler Reddick. I have not been impressed with Reddick in the Playoffs so far. However, Byron has been more impressive and seems to have a lot of momentum on his side.

Eliminated: Reddick, Elliott, Blaney, Logano

Round of 4

The four drivers that I believe will make the Championship race are Larson, Bell, Hamlin and Byron. I really like what Byron has done in the Playoffs and he appears to be in a better position to advance than my initial pick of Reddick.

Larson, Bell and Hamlin have been three of the best drivers all Regular Season long. I predicted that one of those three drivers would get at least one victory in the postseason and Larson already accomplished that twice. So, I feel good about this trio getting another win in the remaining rounds.

In 2021, both of Hamlin’s wins on the season came in the Playoffs. Although he didn’t win a postseason race in 2022, Hamlin finished with five Top 5s and nine Top 10s in the 10 Playoff races. Hamlin has made the Final 4 on three occasions and was 5^th the last two years.

Over the last two postseasons, Bell has three wins in the Playoffs. In 2022, he won at Charlotte and Martinsville. Last year, he won at Homestead and had Top 3 finishes at Las Vegas and Bristol. Bell has also made the Final 4 in the last two consecutive postseasons. He’s started off the Playoffs with Two Top 5s and has a few more tracks where he will contend for checkered flags at.

In 2021, Larson absolutely destroyed the Cup Series with 10 victories and the Championship. That year, he won five of the 10 Playoff races including four of the last five races on the season. He even won three in a row over that stretch, which included the Championship Race.

In 2022, Larson won at Homestead in the Playoffs and was runner up in Martinsville. Although he finished second to Blaney for the 2023 Cup Series Championship, Larson still won two Playoff races and had four Top 3 finishes during the postseason. In two of the last three Playoffs, Larson made the Final Four.  He’s already won a race in the postseason and is favored to win a few more.

Byron wrapped up the second round of the Playoffs with three consecutive Top 3 finishes and four Top 9s in six postseason races. He’s also tied with Hamlin and Bell for three wins on the year. In fact, those four drivers have combined to win the most races this season.

With that said, Larson and Bell are locked and loaded when it comes to making the Final 4. Byron was just as impressive as those two drivers in the Round of 12, if not more. Hamlin will be the one to keep an eye on as he needs a win or a few Top 5 finishes to show that he’s ready to contend for the checkered flag.

Final 4: Kyle Larson (-300), Christopher Bell (-210), Denny Hamlin (-115), William Byron (+100)

Who Wins the 2024 NASCAR Championship?

Prior to the 2024 Daytona 500, I picked Kyle Larson to win the 2024 Cup Series Championship. In my midseason review, I didn’t waiver on my Larson pick. At the beginning of the Playoffs, I picked Larson to win the title. And, after the Round of 16, there’s no reason to change my pick.

Now, that the Round of 12 has concluded, how can you pick anyone else but Larson?

Larson crushed the field at Bristol to close out the Round of 16 with a dominating win and reminding the Cup Series that he is the top driver heading into the Fall season.

At the conclusion of the Round of 12, Larson put a punctuation point on his stake in winning the Championship as the #5 car went to victory lane with a win at Charlotte’s road course.

But, that’s not all when it comes to Larson. The next four races are tracks where the #5 car has won at:

In the Round of 8, Larson has performed well at these three tracks. He’s captured the checkered flag three times at Las Vegas, which includes the last two races there. Larson also has a win and two Top 4 finishes at Homestead. Lastly, he’s finished in the Top 6, including two runner-up results, for the last four Martinsville appearances.

The Final 4 race, to determine the Cup Series Champion, takes place in Phoenix. Once again, this is another track where Larson has won at in his successful Cup Series career. In fact, over his last 11 appearances at Phoenix, Larson has finished in the Top 9 for nine of those races.

With two wins in the Playoffs so far, Larson has won one-third of the Playoff races heading into the Round of 8. I wouldn’t be surprised if the #5 car found another victory before capturing his second Cup Series Championship. As I said before, bet on Larson now before his odds offer less value.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+375)

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Prop Bets

The following 2024 NASCAR Championship prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

NASCAR Championship Exact Forecast

• Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell (+1600, was +900)
• Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin (+2200, was +900)
• Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick (+1800, was +1400)

For this NASCAR prop bet, courtesy of Bet365, you are wagering on who finishes first and second. I went with these three options, although there are options for all of the remaining drivers. Initially, I had Larson and Reddick as my third option with odds moving from +1800 to +1400. I have changed that third prop to feature Larson and Byron.

After the opening round of the Playoffs, I was very confident in Larson and Bell to finish first and second. Larson has two wins in the Playoffs, but Bell has been the most consistent driver among the Playoff field.

His success continued from the opening round into the second round. Over the last two Playoffs, Bell has three postseason wins and has made the Championship Race in both of those years. He was 4^th last year and 3^rd in 2022.

As of now, I’m standing by my pick of Bell to finish second behind Larson for the Championship. However, heading into the Round of 8, I think everyone outside of Larson needs to be aware of Byron because he’s on a heater right now. If anyone can bump bell from finishing second, it’s Byron.

Bet: Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell (+1600)

Winning Manufacture

• Toyota (+125)
• Chevrolet (+130)
• Ford (+350)

At the start of the Playoffs, I took Toyota to hedge our bet on Larson to win the title. I initially had Bell, Reddick and Hamlin all making the Final 4. All three drivers ride in Toyota cars. However, after the conclusion of the second round, I now see Reddick getting bumped for Byron.

This means that there will be two Chevy and two Toyota cars in the final four, instead of three Toyotas as I had thought at the start of the Playoffs.

With that said, when comparing the four drivers, I like Byron and Larson’s chances to win the Championship more than I do Hamlin and Bell.

Since the start of the current Playoff structure, in 2015, all three manufacturers have won the Championship three times each. Ford and Chevy have won the last four Cup Series Championships. I no longer feel confident in hedging our bets with Toyota. Instead, I like for Chevy to pick up another Championship.  

With Chevy the second odds-on favorite, instead of being the outright favorite, I believe that the oddsmakers got this NASCAR prop bet all wrong. This means there’s an extra pinch of value on Chevy.

Bet: Chevrolet (+130)

Winning Team

• Hendrick Motorsports (+130)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+225)
• Team Penske (+350)
• 23XI Racing (+600)

At the beginning of the Playoffs, I thought Joe Gibbs racing was a great way to hedge our bets as we had four of their drivers in the field of 16. However, after the Round of 16 has concluded, two of the JGR drivers have been eliminated.

Out of the 8 remaining drivers, Hendrick Motorsports has three: Larson, Elliott, and Byron. I believe that two of those three drivers will advance to the Final 4 race. Larson and Byron appear to be on another level than most of the field and I expect them to contend for the Championship.  

It should be noted that Hendrick Motorsports drives Chevrolet cars. So, for Hendrick to be favored here, but for Chevy not to be favored in the prop bet above, it only emphasizes my point that Chevrolet offers betting value in the previous NASCAR prop bet.

So, as we head into the third round of the Playoffs, take Hendrick Motorsports and its pack of Chevy cars for this NASCAR pop bet.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+130)

Recent NASCAR Champions

The following list only includes the winners during the current Playoff format, which began in 2015: