2025 NASCAR Darlington Goodyear 400 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, April 6, NASCAR’s Cup Series heads to Darlington Raceway for the first of two annual races at this beloved venue – the Goodyear 400.

Known as “The Lady In Black,” Darlington is one of those tracks where the NASCAR fans, drivers and teams have an extra level of excitement.

Denny Hamlin finally broke his mini-slump by winning last weekend in Martinsville. It’s not unthinkable to see the #11 car back in victory lane this weekend as well, considering that Hamlin leads all active full-time Cup drivers with four Darlington wins.

Yet, Hamlin has been edged out by Kyle Larson as the odds-on favorite to win the 2025 Goodyear 400. Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, and William Byron round out the Top 5 betting favorites for this weekend’s race.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Darlington odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Goodyear 400 predictions for this weekend’s Darlington NASCAR Cup Series race.

Goodyear 400 Race Profile

Along with being called The Lady in Black, Darlington has also earned the moniker “The Track Too Tough to Tame.” It’s a venue that has been on the NASCAR calendar since the early 1950s and is hailed as one of the crown jewels of the sport, which is why the Cup Series holds two annual races at this track.

In addition to one of the biggest annual races, the Southern 500, Darlington also holds a spring race – the Goodyear 400. This race was first called the Rebel 300 and wasn’t expanded to 400 miles until 1966.

However, this spring race ran through the 2004 season before off-track issues led to the removal of a second annual Darlington event.

In 2020, Covid would cause NASCAR to hold two Darlington Cup Series races in the spring. The success of these races motivated NASCAR to permanently add the spring race back to Darlington from 2021 onward.

Darlington Raceway is an oval-shaped track that looks a bit like an egg. The surface is made of asphalt with a lap distance of 1.366 miles and four turns with banking at 23 to 25 degrees. The front and back straightaways have banking from 2 to 3 degrees.

Sunday’s Goodyear 400 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400 miles
• Total Laps: 293 laps
• Stage 1: 90 laps
• Stage 2: 95 laps
• Final Stage: 108 laps

The Goodyear 400 live from Darlington Raceway can be seen in its entirety beginning at 3pm ET on FS1.

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Previous Goodyear 400 Winners

David Pearson holds the record for most spring Darlington wins with seven. Dale Earnhardt is second with six victories. No active full-time Cup Series drivers have two spring Darlington wins.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: Brad Keselowski
• 2023: William Byron
• 2022: Joey Logano
• 2021: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2020: Denny Hamlin

Ford leads the pack with 20 all-time wins for this race. Chevy is second with 16 wins. It’s no surprise that Toyota sits with only two wins considering the 15-year absence of this race.

Darlington NASCAR Odds

Check out the latest Darlington NASCAR Goodyear 400 odds:

Goodyear 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Goodyear 400 at Darlington:

Kyle Larson +450   

• Driver Standings: 2
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 5

Kyle Larson extended his Top 10 streak to four in a row with a 5^th place result at Martinsville last weekend. This keeps the #5 car in the second spot for the driver standings. It’s also the third Top 5 finish in the last four races, which includes winning the Straight Talk Wireless 400 in Miami two weeks ago.

At Darlington, Larson has one win, seven Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and a 10.8 average finish in 14 starts. His average finish is second best among the field.

Despite crashing out of this race last year, Larson is still a strong contender this weekend at Darlington. He won the Southern 500 in 2023, and was 4^th in last year’s edition. That’s two Top 4 results in the last three Darlington races.

If Larson can stay out of trouble, which he found in both the 2022 and 2024 Goodyear races, then the #5 car is a Top 10 driver with a race winning ceiling.

Denny Hamlin +600

• Driver Standings: 6
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 4

As mentioned above, Denny Hamlin won the Cook Out 400 last weekend. It was hist first win in roughly 30 races. He last won at Dover in April 2024. The victory also bumped Hamlin up to 6^th in the driver standings. He also became the top car for most laps led on the season to date.

Last Sunday’s win was Hamlin’s second consecutive Top 5 result and third in the last four races. He now heads to a track where the #11 car is at the top of the most prominent statistical categories for active Cup drivers.

In 25 races, Hamlin has four wins, 13 Top 5s, 18 Top 10s and an 8.2 average finish. He leads all active drivers in those categories.

Over the last five Darlington races, Hamlin has three Top 7 finishes including two in a row. He’s also led laps in 10 consecutive events at this venue.

I see Hamlin continuing his Top 10 streak and also competing for the checkered flag on April 6.

Ryan Blaney +600  

• Driver Standings: 10
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2

Ryan Blaney’s poor start to the 2025 season continues as he finished outside of the Top 10 last weekend in Martinsville. Granted, it was his best result since Atlanta in week 2, but he was never in contention to win. Blaney remains 10^th in the standings.

Making maters worse for Blaney is that Darlington is a track where he’s struggled at. In 16 starts, Blaney has just three Top 10s, a 19.6 average finish and 2 DNFs. Furthermore, those two DNFs were the last two events at this track.

Blaney would be lucky to crack the Top 10 on Sunday. I would avoid him for most wagers except if you are betting against him in a head-to-head prop bet. More than likely, Blaney finishes outside of the Top 15 on Sunday and falls another spot or two in the standings.

Tyler Reddick +650 

• Driver Standings: 7
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 3

Tyler Reddick broke out last year, but that 2024 momentum has yet to really carry over in the new year. With just two Top 5s and three Top 10s in seven races, Reddick sits 7^th in the standings and has only led laps in two races so far.

In 11 Darlington appearances, Reddick has no wins, three Top 5s, five Top 10s and a 13.1 average finish which is fourth best among the field.

He dominated this race last year before finishing 32^nd. He was 22^nd in 2023, and 2^nd in 2022. The #45 car has potential this weekend to be a Top 10 driver. However, I don’t feel confident in taking Reddick to win on Sunday or in the near future.

Fans of this driver should hope that he catches fire in the second half of the regular season otherwise he could be in danger of missing the Playoffs.

William Byron +900

• Driver Standings: 1
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 4

Another week, another round of sitting on top of the driver standings. Yet, William Byron is in danger of losing the top spot if he fails to crack the Top 10 this weekend.

He’s only 16 points ahead of second place Larson and 32 points ahead of third place Chase Elliott. And, if that weren’t enough Hendrick Motorsports talk for you, Alex Bowman sits 5^th just 35 points behind. Having all four drivers in the Top 5 right now, is insane.

As for Byron, he finished 22^nd at Martinsville last weekend which is disappointing. He was 12^th in Miami two weeks ago. Prior to this stretch, he had three consecutive Top 6 finishes and won Daytona 500 in the opening weekend of the season.

In 13 Darlington starts, Byron has one win, four Top 5s, six Top 10s, a 16.0 average finish and 3 DNFs. His last DNF came in the 2025 Southern 500.

Byron was 6^th in this race last year and won in 2023. In fact, dating back to the 2021 return, Byron has a 6.0 average finish in the Goodyear 400. He also has four Top 8 finishes in the last five Darlington races.

I like Byron’s chances of winning this weekend more than Blaney or Reddick. Yet, I feel more comfortable pegging him as a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 race ceiling.

The Best Goodyear 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Goodyear 400 based on their previous success at Darlington Raceway:

Chase Briscoe +1400

• Driver Standings: 12
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 3

Chase Briscoe might sit 12^th in the standings, but he’s starting to find his footing with Joe Gibbs Racing after seven races with his new team. Two weeks ago, following the Las Vegas race, Briscoe was 21^st in the standings.

However, he was able to finish 4^th in Miami and then 9^th last weekend at Martinsville. With two Top 9 finishes in a row, the #19 car is gaining momentum and offers betting value this weekend at Darlington.

In 8 appearances at this raceway, Briscoe has one win, two Top 5s, two Top 10s, and a 14.4 average finish. His two Top 5s have come in the last two Darlington races. Additionally, he won the 2024 Southern 500, which put him in the Playoffs on the final race of the regular season.

I think Briscoe can be a Top 10 car this weekend. And, with a little luck, he could contend for the checkered flag.

Chase Elliott +2000

• Driver Standings: 3
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 4

For a while there, Chase Elliott looked like the best car in Martinsville. He led 42 laps after starting on the front row.

Although he didn’t take the checkered flag, Elliott did bring home a 4^th finish. It was his fourth Top 10 in the last five races and it bumped him up three spots in the standings.

At Darlington, Elliott has four Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and a 16.3 average finish in 16 starts. Furthermore, he has an 8.5 average finish over the last four Darlington races.

Additionally, the #9 car has a 6.3 average finish in the last three Goodyear 400 races. I think Elliott can be a Top 10 driver. And, like with Briscoe, a few lucky breaks late in the race could have the #9 car threatening to take the checkered flag.

Brad Keselowski +2500  

• Driver Standings: 30
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0

I can’t think of a driver having a worse season than Brad Keselowski. Sure, there are other drivers with worse results but they’re not a former NASCAR Cup Series champ like Keselowski is.

For the second consecutive week, Keselowski finished 26^th. His best result of the season is 11^th at Las Vegas. He also has a 15^th at COTA but has never led a lap this season.

With that said, if Keselowski is going to break his early-season slump, then it could possibly be at Darlington on Sunday.

In 22 appearances at the Track Too Tough To Tame, Keselowski has two wins, seven Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, and an 11.0 average finish which is the third best among the field.

Keselowski won this race last year and finished 4^th in 2023. He has four Top 7 finishes in his last five races and scored a 7.5 average finish in the two Darlington races last year.

Keselowski’s value can be found in his finish prop bets more so than his race winning odds.

The Top Goodyear 400 Longshot

Erik Jones (+5000) is my longshot pick for Sunday’s Darlington Cup Series race. He currently sits 29^th in the driver standings but has had plenty of success at this track in the past.

In 14 Darlington starts, Jones has two wins, five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 13.2 average finish which is 5^th best among the field.

He won the 2022 Southern 500 and has two Top 10s in the last five Darlington races. At +5000 odds, the #43 car is worthy of a very small flier for the risk takers out there. He could also be a sneaky play in the head-to-head prop bets.

Darlington NASCAR Predictions: Goodyear 400 winner

Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and Chase Elliott or Chase Briscoe are my Top 5 drivers for Sunday’s Goodyear 400 race.

With that said, I need to see the two Chases win before I can bet on them to be victorious. Additionally, it took nearly a year before Hamlin could win a race, so I’m not willing to bet that he wins two races in a row no matter how great he’s been at Darlington.

I think, like a few other races before this one, that the winner comes from Larson or Byron. Between the two, Larson has the better numbers overall despite both men winning once apiece.

Larson’s car was strong last weekend at Martinsville, but he couldn’t get up there to challenge Hamlin for the checkered flag. This weekend, I think Larson accomplishes that feat.

I’m taking the #5 car to pick up his second win of the season as he dances with the Lady in Black.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+450)

NASCAR Goodyear 400 Prop Bets

The following Goodyear 400 prop bets are courtesy of various sportsbooks like Bet365:

Either To Finish In The Top 3 at Darlington

Many of the pre-race favorites have really dragged the value down for this prop bet. However, there is one pairing that I think provides value considering their recent resumes at Darlington.

Tyler Reddick sits fourth overall with a 13.1 average finish at this track. He has four Top 10s in the last six races. Also, over that span, he has three Top 3 finishes.

Christopher Bell finished third in the Southern 500 last year, and tallied an 8.0 average finish in the two Darlington races for the 2024 season. Furthermore, he has three Top 6 finishes in the last six races at this venue.

Although I typically like to find higher value than +100 for this prop bet, it’s tough sledding on this one for the most part. Even money is still a nice payday for most of us.

Bet: Christopher Bell or Tyler Reddick (+100)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Goodyear 400

Are you telling me, I can get the best Darlington driver at +100 odds for a Top 5 finish? Thanks sportsbooks because I will jump on the Denny Hamlin express for this NASCAR prop bet.

As mentioned above, Hamlin leads all active Cup Series drivers in wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, and average finish. Let’s focus on two of these categories for this prop bet.

Hamlin has 13 Top 5 finishes, which includes four wins in 25 appearances. That’s a 52% Top 5 finishing rate. He has zero DNFs over that span, which makes his body of work even more remarkable.

Let’s look at the last five years for Hamlin to see how things stack up. Over that span, Hamlin has two wins, three Top 3s and six Top 5s in 11 races. He tallied a 5.5 average finish in the two Darlington races last year, which includes finishing 4^th in the 2024 Goodyear 400.

There’s no better Top 5 bet than the #11 car.

Bet: Denny Hamlin (+100)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Goodyear 400

I was debating on Kyle Busch (+100) or Brad Keselowski (+140) for this wager. Both come with hesitations. Keselowski’s 2025 season has been abysmal so far. Busch hasn’t had a great deal of success at Darlington over the last five years as nearly half of his starts were 25^th or worse.

So, I’m taking Keselowski to break his slump by finishing in the Top 10. In 22 Darlington starts, Keselowski has 12 Top 10s, which is a 54.5% Top 10 finishing rate. More recently, he has five Top 10s in his last seven starts.

Additionally, Keselowski won this race last year and scored a 7.5 average finish in the two Darlington races last year. In his last five races at this venue, he has a 6.4 average finish.

Although there is some slight hesitation due to his 2025 season, and all of the other pre-race favorites have little to no value for their Top 10 odds, Keselowski’s Darlington resume and Top 10 odds are just too good to pass up on.

Bet: Brad Keselowski (+140)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+NA)
• Ford (+NA)
• Toyota (+NA)

The odds aren’t out yet for this prop bet, but Ford has 37 total wins at Darlington Raceway and Chevy has 45 total wins. Toyota is further behind due to the lengthy absence of the spring Darlington event.

With that said, all three manufacturers have pretty much evenly split victories for both Darlington races over the last five years.

I’m sticking with Chevy this weekend as I feel the Hendrick bunch is going to dance with the Lady in Black.

Bet: Chevrolet (NA)

Team of Race Winner

• Hendrick Motorsports (+200)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+250)
• Team Penske (+425)
• 23XL Racing (+450)
• RFK Racing (+1000)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1600)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2000)
• Woods Brothers Racing (+3300)
• Front Row Motorsports (+4000)

With this spring race missing nearly 15 years, much of the data is for last century. However, we can still see that teams like Joe Gibbs Racing (two wins), Richard Childress Racing (five wins), Wood Brothers Racing (four wins) and Hendrick Motorsports (four wins) have all found some success in this event.

Looking at the Southern 500, which is more indicative of the current NASCAR landscape, Hendrick has 12 wins and JGR has eight wins.

I think 23XL Racing offers sneaky value, but I feel more confident in the two powerhouses of JGR and Hendrick to pick up the victory. Since Hamlin’s JGR car won last weekend, and I picked Larson to win this weekend, I’m going with Hendrick Motorsports for this prop bet.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+200)

To Win Group

• Erik Jones (+200)
• Ryan Preece (+200)
• AJ Allmendinger (+350)
• Daniel Suarez (+350)

It’s been a while since I’ve done a drivers’ group bet. For the first timers out there, you must pick which driver of this group will have the highest finish in the Goodyear 400 on Sunday.

For me, this prop bet is cut and dry. Let me show you why I think this.

In 10 starts at this venue, Ryan Preece has zero Top 10s and a 20.7 average finish. His best result was 12^th on two separate occasions.

Daniel Suarez comes in behind Preece as he has a 23.5 average finish, just one Top 10 in 14 starts, and has crashed out of two of the last four Darlington races.

AJ Allmendinger has zero Top 10 finishes in 13 starts. His best result was 13^th and he has a 24.8 average finish. Allmendinger has finished outside the Top 20 in five of his last six starts.

This brings us to Erik Jones, my top longshot bet of the weekend. In 14 starts, Jones has two wins, five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 13.2 average finish. His last Darlington win came five races ago. I’m taking Jones to outperform the rest of these drivers on Sunday.

Bet: Erik Jones (+200)