2024 NASCAR Grant Park 165 Odds, Predictions, and Race Winner

On Sunday, July 7, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to the Chicago Street Course for the Grant Park 165 race. This weekend’s event marks the 20^th race of the 2024 Cup Series Season. Including this event, there are seven races left before the Cup Series Playoffs begin and 16 drivers compete for the Cup Series Championship.

Depending on the sportsbook, Kyle Larson or Shane van Gisbergen is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend’s race. Joining the talented duo in the Top 5 favorites are Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott. 

Last week, Nashville was a war of attrition with numerous restarts in Overtime due to wrecks and spinouts. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson had the best cars. Unfortunately, running out of gas caused the two drivers to pit and fall out of contention in the final laps. In the end, Joey Logano (+1800) was able to steal the checkered flag for the Ally 400. 

I had Logano as my sleeper pick last weekend and said the following about the #22 car:

Let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Grant Park 165 odds and make our Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s Chicago Street Course race.

Grant Park 165 Race Profile

The Grant Park 165 made its NASCAR debut in 2023, for both the Cup Series and the Xfinity Series. Originally, this race was 220 miles and 100 laps. However, NASCAR decided to shorten the distance after seeing last year’s race still have success despite ending early due to rain.

The Chicago Street Course has a lap distance of 2.2 miles that consists of 12 turns on an asphalt surface. Sunday’s Grant Park 165 race breaks down as follows: 

• Total Miles: 165 miles
• Total Laps: 75 laps
• Stage 1: 20 laps
• Stage 2: 25 laps
• Final Stage: 30 laps

The Grant Park 165 is set to begin at 4:30pm ET and will air live on NBC. 

Previous Grant Park 165 Winners

As mentioned, NASCAR’s Cup Series made its debut at the Chicago Street Course in 2023. New Zealand’s Shane van Gisbergen won the inaugural Grant Park 165, which was originally called the Grant Park 220. 

NASCAR Grant Park 165 Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Grant Park 165 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

NASCAR Grant Park 165 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Grant Park 165:

Shane van Gisbergen +450

• Standings: NA
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0

As mentioned above, Shane van Gisbergen won the inaugural Cup Series race at the Chicago Street Course. The New Zealander became the first driver to win his Cup Series debut race since 1963. That year Johnny Rutherford won in his debut. 

This past offseason, the 35-year-old driver decided to leave Supercars and race in NASCAR full time. However, he’s only competing in a handful of Cup Series races. Currently, van Gisbergen is a full-time driver for the Xfinity Series.

So far, van Gisbergen has competed in three Cup Series races: Austin, Talladega and Charlotte. Only the Austin race (Circuit Of The Americas) was a road race. He finished 16^th in that event. In his three Cup Series races, van Gisbergen has a 25.3 average finish. 

Despite his struggles in the Cup Series, van Gisbergen has had a strong season in the Xfinity Series. Currently, he’s sitting 13^th in the driver standings. However, he’s tied with a series leading two victories so far. 

Van Gisbergen won at Portland and Sonoma in back-to-back weeks. It should come as no surprise that the 13^th and 14^th races of the Xfinity Series season were both road courses. The Portland race has not been introduced to the Cup Series as of yet. But Sonoma is an annual staple for the Cup Series and has been since 1989. 

So, if you are keeping track, this inexperienced NASCAR driver already has three road course wins in less than two-dozen career races in this sport. That’s an impressive accomplishment, which is why he’s a betting favorite on Sunday.

Kyle Larson +550

• Standings: 1st 
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 10

Last week in Nashville, Larson was my pick to win the Ally 400. Unfortunately, he finished 8^th after running out of gas during one of the five Overtime restarts. Larson was on the front row with Denny Hamlin for a few of those restarts and looked to have a chance at victory. It would’ve made two wins in a row for yours truly, as I correctly picked Christopher Bell to win the USA Today 301 race two weeks ago.

Nevertheless, we’ll take this momentum heading into Chicago on Sunday, and try to add another victory or a few top NASCAR bets to our growing streak. 

For Larson, he’s tied for second with Martin Truex Jr. among active drivers with five road course wins. The #5 car has two victories apiece at Watkins Glen and Sonoma. He also has one Cup Series victory at Charlotte Roval. In 34 road course appearances, Larson has five wins, nine Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, and a 14.2 average finish. 

In 2024, Larson has fared well at the two road course races so far. In the 6^th race of the season, Larson finished 17^th at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA). In the 16^th race of the season, Larson won at Sonoma.

For the season, he has four Top 10s, two Top 5s, and one victory over his last five races. Other than Bell and Denny Hamlin, Larson has been the best driver on a weekly basis. I expect that trend to continue this weekend in Chicago. 

Christopher Bell +650

• Standings: 6^th 
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 11

Speaking of Christopher Bell, he dominated at Nashville last weekend and was clearly the car to beat. Bell led 131 of the 227 laps that he raced in before crashing out of the race and finishing 36^th. That result snapped a five-race streak of finishing 9^th or better. 

In the two road races this year to date, Bell was 2^nd at COTA and 9^th at Sonoma. That bodes well for the #20 car heading into the Cup Series’ third road race of the year. For the record, there will be five road races in the 2024 Cup Series season. 

For his career, Bell won the 2021 Daytona road race and the 2022 Charlotte road course. Last year, Bell finished 18^th at Chicago, but did lead 37 laps. 

Bell is clearly one of the top drivers in the Cup Series this season. He’s proven over his young Cup Series career that he can win on any type of track. Two road course victories show Bell’s versatility, but his results for the 2024 road races so far, demonstrate his consistency. 

I expect Bell to be one of the best cars on Sunday. He’ll definitely finish in the Top 10 and most likely contend for the checkered flag. Bell does have 12 Top 10s in 22 Cup Series road races and a 14.0 average finish. 

We’ll see if he can avoid the bad luck of last weekend in Nashville, to compete for the win in Chicago. 

Tyler Reddick +650

• Standings: 4^th 
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 12

Tyler Reddick had a poor showing at the Chicago Street Course last year as he finished 28^th despite starting on the front row. Reddick did lead eight laps, but faded late in the race. However, don’t let his 2023 Grant Park results fool you. 

Not only has Reddick been one of the better road course drivers in the Cup Series since coming to the top circuit, the #45 car has also been a model of consistency this season so far. 

In 2024, Reddick sits 4^th overall but he leads the Series with 12 Top 10s and is third among full-time Cup drivers with a 12.5 average finish. Reddick also finished 5^th at COTA and 8^th at Sonoma. That’s a 6.5 average finish in road races this year so far. 

For his career, Reddick has three wins, seven Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, and an 11.8 average finish in 22 Cup Series road races. He’s tied with A.J. Allmendigner for the fourth most road wins among active Cup drivers. 

I think Reddick is a lock for a Top 10 finish. In fact, I believe the #45 car is going to be a contender this weekend for the checkered flag. 

Chase Elliott +800

• Standings: 2^nd 
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 9

It’s safe to say that Chase Elliott hasn’t scored as many wins this season as his team and fans were hoping for. Nevertheless, Elliott still sits second in the driver standings due to his consistent finishes. Currently, Elliott leads the Series with a 10.1 average finish. That’s over two points better than his teammate Kyle Larson at 12.3 and Tyler Reddick at 12.5. 

What really has me salivating over Elliott’s odds this weekend, like a juicy well-done steak, is the fact that the #9 car is the best road course driver among the field. In fact, he’s the third best road course driver in the history of the Cup Series. 

In 31 road course starts, Elliott has seven wins, 17 Top 5s, 21 Top 10s, 8.8 average finish and 489 laps led. These are incredible numbers for the former Cup Series Champ. Currently, he’s one win behind Tony Stewart (8) and two behind the all-time leader Jeff Gordon (9). 

Now, it should be noted that there are more road courses in this era of Cup Series racing than when Gordon and Stewart were at their peak. This reflects their dominance. However, it also reflects Elliott’s versatility and driving skills to conquer the different road courses. 

For his Cup Series career, Elliott has taken the checkered flag at the following road courses:

• Charlotte Roval: 2 wins
• Watkins Glen: 2 wins
• Circuit of The Americas: 1 win
• Daytona Road Course: 1 win
• Road America: 1 win

Surprisingly, Elliott has not won at Sonoma yet, despite numerous appearances at the road course. Last year, Elliott finished third in the Grant Park race. I fully expect the #9 car to be a serious competitor this weekend. Top 10 and Top 5 finishes are foregone conclusions. 

The Best NASCAR Grant Park 165 Betting Value

The following drivers are my picks for the best betting value in the Grant Park 165 based on their current season’s stats and their previous success at the Chicago Street Course:

A.J. Allmendinger +1400

• Standings: NA
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 7

A.J. Allmendinger is known as a road course ringer. Basically, he mostly comes up to the Cup Series to compete in road races. In 2024, Allmendinger has competed in seven races so far. Two of those races were road courses where he finished 6^th at COTA and 6^th at Sonoma. In the Xfinity Series, Allmendinger sits 7^th in the standings with three Top 5s and eight Top 10s. 

In 39 Cup Series road race appearances, Allmendinger has three wins, nine Top 5s, and 21 Top 10s. He also has a respectable 14.9 average finish. As mentioned above, his three road wins are good for the 4^th best in the field. 

Last year, Allmendinger finished 17^th in Chicago. I fully expect him to improve on that result this weekend. Look for the #13 car to be a Top 10 driver this Sunday and potentially crash the Top 5 party. 

Denny Hamlin +2500

• Standings: 3^rd 
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 8

Denny Hamlin was a victim of the numerous restarts last weekend in Nashville as he had to pit or run out of gas like Larson. Hamlin had the best car at the end of the race after catching Ross Chastain, taking the lead and appearing to be well on his way to winning multiple times. Unfortunately, a handful of restarts prevented the #11 car from picking up his 4^th win of the year.

Instead, Hamlin ended up 12^th, which is the 4^th straight race where he finished outside of the Top 10 on the season. He led the second most laps with 70, which was 61 less than Bell. 

Last year, Hamlin started on the pole in Chicago. Unfortunately, he ended up 11^th and didn’t lead any laps. This year, the #11 car finished 14^th at COTA and 38^th at Sonoma after blowing an engine on the second lap. 

For his career, Hamlin has 52 road course appearances. Over those races, he’s tallied one win, 14 Top 5s, 20 Top 10s, and a 16.6 average finish. 

Now, these numbers aren’t as great as some of the drivers above. But that’s why Hamlin has +2500 odds to win this weekend’s race. 

The fact that he started on the pole in Chicago last year, gives us a bit of hope. When you add that nugget of info with how solid he’s been during the 2024 season, I believe Hamlin could crack the Top 10 and flirt with a Top 5 finish. And, with a little luck, maybe he steals a victory. He’s owed one after last weekend.

The Top Grant Park 165 Longshot

Austin Cindric (+5000) is my longshot pick of the weekend. Sure, there are other drivers with odds twice Cindric’s number like Brad Keselowski (+10000), but I like Cindric’s small chances at competing this Sunday.

First, Cindric sits 20^th in the standings but he’s already scored a victory on the season which means he’s a lock to make the Playoffs. The #2 car won at Gateway five races ago. Like other cars, he was a victim of the restarts last weekend and ended up 15^th. At Sonoma, he was 22^nd. He also finished 18^th at COTA this year. 

A 20.0 average finish in the two road races on the season so far, doesn’t give us a lot of confidence. Yet, when you look further into his road race Cup Series stats, they improve. In 16 Cup Series road races, Cindric has two Top 5s and six Top 10s with a 15.9 average finish, which is 13^th best among the field. 

More importantly, Cindric finished 6^th in this race last year. That was a solid result especially after starting 31^st. Only Justin Haley had a better improvement from start to finish (37^th to 2^nd). 

Sure, it’s going to take some luck for a car like Cindric’s to win. But that’s what longshots are all about. With that said, Cindric does have +250 odds to crack the Top 10. I think the #2 car can squeak into the Top 10 this weekend just like he did last year. 

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Grant Park 165

When it comes to road course drivers, you have to look at Chase Elliott first. Currently, Elliott has +140 odds to finish in the Top 5. That’s solid value for the best road racer in the field today. 

In 31 Cup Series road races, Elliott has 17 Top 5s to go along with his seven wins. Additionally, he has a Series leading 8.8 average finish on road courses. Elliott’s Top 5 finishing rate is at 54.8 percent. Elliott was 4^th at Sonoma this year, which was the most recent road race on the calendar. 

On the season, the #9 car is tied for second with seven Top 5 finishes. He’s had two Top 5 finishes in his last four races. Elliott was a Top 5 car last weekend until the third or fourth restart in Overtime. I’m not only taking Elliott to finish in the Top 5, but I also think he contends for the checkered flag. 

NASCAR Bet: Chase Elliott (+140)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Grant Park 165

Joey Logano (+220) is my best bet for Top 10 finishes. You could look at other drivers like Truex Jr. (-160), Elliott (-240), Larson (-300) or even Allmendinger (-140) for this bet, but Logano’s odds of +220 offer far more value. 

Additionally, he just picked up his first win of the season and should have some momentum heading into Chicago this weekend. But there’s more to liking Logano as a Top 10 driver in the Grant Park 165. 

In 46 road course races for the Cup Series, Logano has one win, 12 Top 5s, 22 Top 10s and a 14.7 average finish. These are solid numbers for the two-time Cup Series champ. Furthermore, he’s averaging a Top 10 finish almost every other road race. Earlier this year, Logano finished 11^th at COTA (almost Top 10) and 21^st at Sonoma last month. If his trend continues, then Logano should crack the Top 10 in Chicago on Sunday. 

To drive this point home, Logano finished 8^th in this race last year. 

NASCAR Bet: Joey Logano (+220)

Grant Park 165 Driver H2H Matchups

For these NASCAR bets, you must pick which driver will have the better Grant Park 165 result in each head-to-head matchup:

Chase Elliott (-150) vs. Martin Truex Jr. (+120)

Prior to Chase Elliott’s success on road courses, Martin Truex Jr. was the man. He tallied five road course wins including four at Sonoma. Unfortunately, Truex has been inconsistent this year, which could be part of the reason why he’s retiring at the end of the season. 

Truex was 10^th at COTA and 27^th at Sonoma this year. Last season, he was 32^nd in the Chicago race. It’s been a few seasons since Truex last won a road course race and I don’t see him doing this Sunday. In fact, I don’t see Truex being able to finish higher than Elliott this weekend. 

I’m not a fan of Elliott’s odds for this head-to-head matchup, but I do think he’s going to win this NASCAR prop bet. I’m really high on Elliot for this Chicago race.

NASCAR Bet: Chase Elliott (-150)

Christopher Bell (-115) vs. Tyler Reddick (-115)

This is a tough matchup on the surface as Bell is one of the top drivers in the Cup Series this season. However, as you can see from the details above, Reddick actually performs better on road courses than Bell does. 

Both men have 22 Cup Series road race starts, but it’s Reddick with more wins, Top 5s, and Top 10s than Bell. Additionally, Reddick has an 11.8 average finish on road courses and Bell has a 14.0 average finish. Both men finished in the Top 10 at COTA and Sonoma this season. 

I expect these odds to change once Qualifying is finished. The man who has the better starting position for Sunday’s race should be favored in this H2H matchup. With that in mind, take Reddick and his -115 odds for the win in this NASCAR prop bet. 

NASCAR Bet: Tyler Reddick (-115)

NASCAR Grant Park 165 Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag?

For those of you who think that NASCAR drivers only turn left, here’s a race that defies that assumption. Chicago’s street course is going to make for an exciting event. Add the festivities and music in the background throughout various stretches of the course, and we’re going to have a fun Holiday weekend party – NASCAR style. 

For my Top 5, I’m looking at Larson, Elliott, Reddick, van Gisbergen, and possibly Bell or Allmendinger. I wouldn’t be surprised if Truex, Hamlin, Kyle Busch or Logano somehow snuck into the Top 5. 

As for the winner, it’s time for Chase Elliott to shine again. The #9 car only has one victory on the season and he’s almost good for at least one road course victory each year. With only three chances left, this weekend’s Chicago race is as good as any for Elliott to flex his road course dominance. In my opinion, we’re looking at the best road course driver in Cup Series history. Three more road wins and he will have that crown. 

NASCAR Bet: Chase Elliott (+800)

NASCAR Grant Park 165 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Grant Park 165 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Win: Elliott or Larson (+280)

I really like this prop bet for Chase Elliott or Kyle Larson to win. Both men are strong road course drivers with some staggering career numbers. In 65 total Cup Series road race appearances, the two Hendrick Motorsports teammates have a combined 12 wins, 26 Top 5s and 35 Top 10s. 

Elliott leads the active Cup Series drivers with seven road wins and Larson is tied for second with five. Larson won the last road race on the calendar, which was Sonoma last month. Elliott was 4^th in that race. 

I believe Elliott is the driver to take this weekend, but Larson is nearly as good on road courses. So, give me the two best full-time road course drivers for this prop bet.

NASCAR Bet: Elliott or Larson (+280)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (-110)
• Toyota (+180)
• Ford (+400)

Despite what the odds say, there really is only one legit choice and that’s Chevrolet. In addition to the Hendrick Motorsports trio of Elliott, Larson and William Byron, Chevy also features the betting favorite in van Gisbergen and “Mr. Road Course Ringer” A.J. Allmendinger. Throw in Kyle Busch who also has four career road course wins, and you have five of the Top 6 or 7 road course drivers in the Cup Series field. 

NASCAR Bet: Chevrolet (-110)

Winning Car Number

• Over 17.5 (-115)
• Under 17.5 (-115)

I will admit, despite picking Joey Logano as my sleeper last weekend, he did kill this prop bet for me as I was certain that the Under 14.5 was going to hit. This weekend, we get an Over/Under of 17.5. Let’s take a look at the top cars for the Over and the Under:

The top Chicago contenders for Under 17.5 are: Chastain (1), Larson (5), Elliott (9), Allmendinger (13), van Gisbergen (16) 

The top Chicago contenders for Over 17.5 are: Truex (19), Bell (20), Logano (22), Reddick (45)

Take a look at that Under 17.5 list. You have four of the Top 6 odds-on favorites this weekend. Let’s not forget that you also get Ryan Blaney, Hamlin and Busch. This is an incredible group of cars and some of the best road course drivers in the Cup Series. 

I love the Under 17.5 wager. In fact, it’s my favorite wager for the entire Grant Park 165 race. 

NASCAR Bet: Under 17.5 (-115)

Grant Park 165 Group Winner

• Joey Logano +240
• Austin Cindric +250
• Alex Bowman +260
• Todd Gilliland +270

This is an interesting Group prop bet where we’re picking the driver that we think will have the best finish. Let’s start by eliminating Todd Gilliland as he only has three Top 10s in 13 road course races with a 21.4 average finish. 

Alex Bowman actually has some decent numbers with 13 Top 10s and a 14.4 average finish. Cindric is my top longshot to win the race with six Top 10s in 16 road races on the Cup Series. Cindric finished 6^th in this race last year. Gilliland was 19^th and Bowman was last. 

Logano was 8^th in this race last year, but he also has one road win, more Top 5s, and more Top 10s than the other drivers in this group. Coming off a win last weekend in Nashville, I like Logano to race with no pressure now and to score another Top 10 finish this weekend. I believe Cindric can also crack the Top 10, but finish a spot or two behind the #22 car. 

NASCAR Bet: Joey Logano (+240)