2024 NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, October 27, NASCAR’s Cup Series heads to the Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Straight Talk Wireless 400.

This marks the second race in the Round of 8, the eight Playoff race, and the 34^th race of the season. Currently, there are eight drivers contending for the 2024 NASCAR Championship. After next week’s race, that number will be cut down to four.

Christopher Bell is the reigning champ for this race. However, Kyle Larson is the odds-on favorite to win this weekend’s event. He’s joined by Bell, William Byron, Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin as the Top 5 pre-race favorites.

Last weekend, in the South Point 400, Joey Logano pulled off a shocker as he won the Las Vegas race. This means that Logano has locked in a spot for the Final 4 in Phoenix, two weeks from Sunday.

Now, all attention turns to Homestead this weekend to see which driver might join Logano in the Championship Race. With that said, let’s take a look at the latest Straight Talk Wireless 400 odds and make our NASCAR Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s race at the Homestead-Miami Speedway race.

Straight Talk Wireless 400 Race Profile

The Homestead-Miami Speedway first entered the NASCAR Cup Series calendar in 1999. From the inaugural race through 2002, the race was run on the second 1.5 mile layout, which had 6 degrees of banking. By 2003, the Cup Series began racing on a new 1.5 mile layout that increased the corner banking to 18-20 degrees.

Additionally, the Homestead-Miami race was moved a few times throughout the season. From 2004-2019, it was the final race of the Cup Series Playoffs. In 2020, it was moved to March. In 2021, the race was held in February. By 2022, the Homestead-Miami race was moved to October where it currently sits on the calendar.

Sunday’s Straight Talk Wireless 400 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400.5 miles
• Total Laps: 267 laps
• Stage 1: 80 laps
• Stage 2: 80 laps
• Final Stage: 107 laps

The Straight Talk Wireless 400 is set to begin at 2:30 pm ET and will air live on NBC.

Industry’s Best

Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

Previous Straight Talk Wireless 400 Winners

Tony Stewart won the inaugural race in 1999. Stewart would go on to finish with three wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He’s tied with Greg Biffle and Denny Hamlin for the most wins at this track.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2023: Christopher Bell
• 2022: Kyle Larson
• 2021: William Byron
• 2020: Denny Hamlin
• 2019: Kyle Busch
• 2018: Joey Logano
• 2017: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2016: Jimmie Johnson
• 2015: Kyle Busch
• 2014: Kevin Harvick

NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Straight Talk Wireless 400 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Playoff Drivers

The following drivers are in the 8-car Playoff field. Let’s take a look at how these drivers have fared in the postseason so far, and how they might do at the Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend:

Joey Logano (+2500)

• Playoff Standings: 1
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 11

Personally, I would avoid Joey Logano this weekend for this race. He’s on cruise control until Phoenix after winning the South Point 400. Which, by the way, I thought he had a chance to do. I made the following prediction about Logano:

“I also think that the two-time Cup Series champ rides this luck and wave of momentum to a Top 10 finish. In fact, I think he has a Top 3 ceiling and wouldn’t be surprised if he used some of that luck to win this race.”

That’s exactly what the #22 car did last weekend in Las Vegas. Now, he’s locked into the Final 4, which I also said was a great value bet heading into the Round of 8:

“Although the oddsmakers have shifted Logano from +1600 to +1200 to win the title, he’s still too much of a longshot to win the title. With that said, he does offer +270 odds to make the Final 4.

If you were looking for a flier with a nice payout, then this could be an option. Logano has three career wins at Las Vegas and a 9.9 average finish. If he can turn back the hands of time, and win the race, the #22 car is locked into the Championship Race.”

Once again, that’s exactly what Logano did. He turned back the hands of time to when the #22 car was one of the best at Vegas. And, now, he’s racing for his third Championship.

Logano could crack the Top 10 this weekend, but I would avoid him until Phoenix.

Christopher Bell (+600)

• Playoff Standings: 2
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 13
• Top 10: 21

Although Logano is locked into the next round, Christopher Bell is first in Playoff Points and Standings. Yet, I’m sure that Bell would prefer to be in Logano’s position instead.

Last weekend, I pegged Bell to be a Top 5 driver and he finished second at Las Vegas. It was another strong run from the most consistent Playoff driver heading into this weekend.

At Homestead, Bell is the defending winner. He also has a 10.0 average finish in four career starts. Bell leads the field in average finish for this venue.

I believe that Bell will be a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling this weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised of he won, but I’m not fully convinced that he will win this race for a second straight year.

Kyle Larson (+300)

• Playoff Standings: 3
• Wins: 6
• Top 5: 13
• Top 10: 16

Larson was the driver to beat last weekend with his recent dominance at Las Vegas. Although I didn’t pick him to win the South Point 400, I did think he could be a Top 5 driver. Unfortunately, Larson finished 11^th as he really wasn’t even a factor in the race.

This weekend, Larson should be a Top 5 driver with a race winning ceiling. Larson has one win, five Top 5s, five Top 10s, and a 13.0 average finish. However, he did crash out of this race last year and blew an engine in 2019. That’s two DNFs in the last four Homestead races.

With that said, Larson’s odds don’t provide much value. Yet, he’s often one of the best drivers on the 1.5 mile tracks. Additionally, he has no room for error over these next two races if Larson wants to make it to the next round. I’m taking the #5 car to finish in the Top 5 and possibly flirt with his 7^th win of the season.

William Byron (+700) 

• Playoff Standings: 4
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 18

William Byron was my pick to win the South Point 400 last weekend in Las Vegas. I had him as a Top 5 driver with a solid chance at wining the race.

In fact, I said the race would come down to Larson, Byron and Logano. I had all three in the Top 5. Well, Logano won the race, Larson finished 11^th and Byron was 4^th.

It was Byron’s fourth consecutive Top 4 finish in the Playoffs and a big reason why I picked him to make it to the Championship Race instead of Tyler Reddick.

This weekend, I think Byron could be a Top 5 driver once again. In six Homestead starts, he has one win, two Top 5s, and three Top 10s with a 14.8 average finish. Byron won this race in 2021, and has a 5.6 average finish at this track.

Denny Hamlin (+900) 

• Playoff Standings: 5
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 16

As mentioned at the top of this article, Denny Hamlin is tied with Stewart and Biffle for the most wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway with three.

He’s going to need to channel some of his old Miami magic if he wants to make it to the next round of the Playoffs. Hamlin sits 5^th in the Playoff Standings, but he’s not been a true race winning contender in several months.

Hamlin crashed out of this race last year, but did have 10 consecutive Top 12 finishes that also included two victories over that span.

I’m putting Hamlin on alert as the #11 car is fading down the stretch and he could be bounced from the Playoffs after the Round of 8 has been completed. As for this weekend, take Hamlin to be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling.

Tyler Reddick (+700)

• Playoff Standings: 6
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 19

Tyler Reddick has been a disappointment in the Playoffs. In fact, I’ve pretty much summed up my thoughts on him in my NASCAR Cup Series Championship article breakdown:

“At the start of the Playoffs, I felt strongly about Tyler Reddick making it to the Championship 4 race. He won the regular season title due to his consistency. I thought that would translate to the Playoffs, but it has not happened.

Prior to the Round of 12 getting underway, I stated that I felt less confident in Reddick at that point than the start of the Playoffs. Well, you can guess it, I no longer think that the #45 car will make it to the Final 4.”

That last sentence was prior to the Round of 8 beginning. And, you can guess it, I’m convinced that Reddick will be eliminated following the conclusion of this round.

Reddick finished 35^th in Las Vegas last weekend. He crashed out of the race less than halfway through the event.

With that said, I do think if Reddick can stay out of trouble this weekend, then he can be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling. In four Homestead starts, Reddick has three Top 4 results and a crash in 2022.

I don’t think Reddick offers any value on his race winning, Top 5 or Top 10 odds. I would avoid wagering on him this weekend due to his inconsistency throughout the postseason.

Ryan Blaney (+1000)

• Playoff Standings: 7
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 15

Like Reddick, Ryan Blaney finished 32^nd last weekend and fell in the Playoff Standings. The reigning Cuyp Series champ has never won at Homestead in nine starts. He was 2^nd in this race last year and has a 3^rd in 2020. However, he also has six finishes outside of the Top 17 including three results outside of the Top 25.

Blaney’s inconsistency at Homestead, combined with is three finishes of 32^nd or worse in the last six Playoff races, has me avoiding the #12 car this weekend. It’s not that he isn’t capable of winning a race like this, it’s just that Blaney has no momentum, too many DNFs on the year with 7, and has never won at Homestead in the past.

Chase Elliott (+1600)  

• Playoff Standings: 8
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 16

I’ve said since the beginning of the Playoffs that Chase Elliott’s postseason run would at the conclusion of the Round of 8. And, that’s exactly what seems to be happening.

Elliott has suspension issues last weekend in Vegas and finished 33^rd. The result dropped him to 8^th in the standings. He will need a win this weekend or a lot of luck to have any shot at making the Championship Race.

Unfortunately, in eight starts at Homestead, Elliott has never won at this track. Yet, he does have eight Top 15 finishes with two Top 5s and three Top 10s. His 10.4 average finish is the second best in the field.

With that said, Elliott has three straight finishes of 14^th or 15^th at this track. I think he will be a Top 15 driver with a Top 5 ceiling on Sunday. But that’s not going to be enough to move him above the cutoff line.

Straight Talk Wireless 400 Best of The Rest

The following drivers are not qualified for the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, but they still offer value at Homestead:

Brad Keselowski (+1600)

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 13

Brad Keselowski has been on a miserable run as of late. He made the Playoffs but was bounced after the opening round.

In the last six races of the season, Keselowski has one Top 5 and five finishes outside of the Top 20. In fact, over the last eight races, he has just one Top 5.

With that said, Keselowski could be a sleeper this weekend. I believe he could be worthy of a Top 10 bet as his odds are -125, which is solid for a driver that has seven Top 10s in 16 Homestead starts.

Keselowski has two Top 10s in his last four Homestead races. It could be worth a small flier.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1600)

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 11

The final full-time season for Martin Truex Jr. has been pathetic for the former Cup Series champ. Yet, he was able to score a 6^th place result at Las Vegas last weekend, and now has two Top 10s in the last four races.

In 19 career starts at Homestead, Truex has one win, seven Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, and a 10.7 average finish which is the third best average among the field.

Over the last seven races at this track, Truex has a 7.7 average finish. And, that includes a blown engine in last year’s Straight Talk Wireless 400 race. However, Truex also has four Top 3 finishes over that span as well.

I’m not sure that Truex can crack the Top 5, but his -125 odds for a Top 10 finish are worthy of a small flier.

Kyle Busch (+2000)

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

At Homestead, Busch has 11 Top 10s in 19 starts. He’s won this race twice, with the last victory coming in 2019. Over the last nine races at this track, Busch has two wins, five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and nine Top 18s.

Busch is not going to win this race, but his Top 10 odds offer great value for a driver with this kind of resume at Homestead. Busch’s Top 10 odds are +120.

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Straight Talk Wireless 400

Kyle Larson (-210) is my choice for the best Top 5 bet this weekend. I don’t like his odds at all. However, his ability to win at 1.5 mile tracks, his Playoff success, and recent results at Homestead have me believing that Larson is a Top 5 driver this Sunday.

Larson has five Top 5s in the last eight races at this track. He won this race in 2022, and was 4^th in 2021. A crash in the 2023 race, prevented Larson from a third consecutive Top 5 finish. I believe the #5 car is the man to beat on Sunday.

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Straight Talk Wireless 400

Denny Hamlin (-190) is my best bet for finishing in the Top 10. The odds for Top 10 finishes didn’t provide much value on any driver. Sports betting sites really hit these prop bets hard.

With that said, Hamlin has nine Top 10 finishes in the last 12 Homestead races. Over that span, he also has a 9.75 average finish. Not to mention, for his career, Hamlin has a 10.9 average finish in 19 Homestead appearances.

Hamlin should be a Top 10 driver this weekend with a Top 5 ceiling.

NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Predictions: Who Wins?

Glenn Frey sang it well with his hit song “The Heat is On.” Because that’s exactly what’s happening this weekend with the Straight Talk Wireless 400 race.

The heat is on seven of the eight Playoff drivers as they all try to advance to the next round and compete for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

With that said, I like for Larson, Bell, Hamlin, Byron and Truex or Elliott to finish in the Top 5. From there, I feel that we’re going to see a Hendrick Motorsports driver in the winner’s circle. So, that means either Byron, Larson or Elliott.

Of the three, you have to roll with Larson despite his lower value. This man has answered the bell every time the pressure was on him to advance in the postseason. He leads the field in wins and has a solid resume at Homestead.

Elliott has never won there, but Byron has. And, like last weekend in Vegas, I wouldn’t be surprised if Byron took the checkered flag this week. Yet, when it comes to putting money on it, Larson is the man.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+300)

NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Finish Top 3: Bell or Byron (-190)

Last weekend, I had Logano and Byron as my picks to finish in the Top 3 at Las Vegas. Logano won the race and Byron finished 4^th. This weekend, I’m picking Bell or Byron to finish in the Top 3.

In fact, I have both drivers in my Top 5 for this weekend’s race. Bell won the Straight Talk Wireless 400 last year and is a true contender this year as well. Byron has also won at Homestead in his career.

Both drivers have been the most consistent among the field in the Playoffs. Other than Logano and Larson winning multiple Playoff races apiece, Bell and Byron are the two most impressive Playoff drivers remaining. One of them will finish in the Top 3.

Bet: Bell or Byron to Finish in Top 3 (-190)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+110)
• Toyota (+150)
• Ford (+400)

This prop bet offers us an opportunity to hedge our wagers. However, I think the next prop bet is better for a hedge due to the payouts.

As mentioned above, I like for Larson, Elliott and Byron to all finish in the Top 5 and challenge for the race win. All three of those NASCAR stars drive Chevrolet cars. However, other Chevy drivers that have fared well at Homestead in the past also include Austin Dillon and Kyle Busch.

I’m sticking with Chevy this weekend.

Bet: Chevrolet (+110)

Team of Race Winner

• Hendrick Motorsports (+130)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+210)
• 23XI Racing (+600)
• Team Penske (+800)
• RFK Racing (+1100)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1600)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2000)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+3000)
• Kaulig Racing (+3500)

Larson, Elliott and Byron all drive Chevy cars for Hendrick Motorsports. However, I’m going to hedge my wagers above by taking Joe Gibbs Racing for this prop bet. JGR drives Toyota cars, but the +150 odds for Toyota in the previous prop bet is less value than the +210 odds for JGR in this prop.

The JGR team includes Bell, Truex Jr., Hamlin and Ty Gibbs. If you look at the active drivers’ average finishes for Homestead, you will see that Bell, Truex, and Hamlin have three of the four best average finishes. Adding Ty Gibbs makes it four of the Top 10 average finishes at Homestead.

I like those numbers along with the fact that Joe Gibbs Racing has the most wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway with nine.

Bet: Joe Gibbs Racing (+210)

Winning Car Number

• Over 15.5 (-110)
• Under 15.5 (-110)

I like the Under for this prop bet as it includes the following drivers: Larson (5), Keselowski (6), Busch (8), Elliott (9), and Hamlin (11). I think all of these drivers can finish in the Top 10 this weekend. I have three of these drivers in my Top 5 and two in my Top 3.  

Bet: Under 15.5 (-110)