2025 NASCAR Las Vegas Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, March 16, the NASCAR Cup Series makes its first of two annual trips to Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400. This weekend’s event marks the fifth race of the regular season. And, as all Cup Series fans know by now, Christopher Bell has won three races in a row.

To the surprise of many, Bell was able to hold off Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson to win the Shriners Children’s 500 in Phoenix last weekend.

This week, Bell sits on top of the betting boards as the odds-on favorite to win in Las Vegas. He is joined by Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney.

Larson is the defending race winner of the Pennzoil 400. In fact, he’s won two of the last four spring Vegas races and three of the last six Cup Series events at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Las Vegas odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Pennzoil 400 predictions.

Pennzoil 400 Race Profile

The Las Vegas Motor Speedway was added to NASCAR’s circuit in 1998 with this spring race. It wasn’t until 2018, that NASCAR added the fall Las Vegas race to the calendar. Since then, the Cup Series has held two annual Vegas races.

The Las Vegas Motor Speedway (LVMS) is a classic tri-oval track with an asphalt surface, a nine-degree frontstretch and backstretch, turns that feature 20 degrees in banking, and a lap distance of 1.5 miles.

Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 400.5 miles
• Total Laps: 267 laps
• Stage 1: 80 laps
• Stage 2: 80 laps
• Final Stage: 107 laps

The Pennzoil 400 begins at 3:30pm ET live on FS1.

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Previous Pennzoil 400 Winners

Jimmie Johnson holds the record for the most wins in this spring Las Vegas race with four. However, if you combine this race (Pennzoil 400) with the fall Las Vegas race (South Point 400), then Joey Logano is tied for the most Vegas wins with four. Additionally, that puts Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski tied with three wins apiece.

The following is a list of the most recent Pennzoil 400 winners:

• 2024: Kyle Larson
• 2023: William Byron
• 2022: Alex Bowman
• 2021: Kyle Larson
• 2020: Joey Logano
• 2019: Joey Logano
• 2018: Kevin Harvick
• 2017: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2016: Brad Keselowski
• 2015: Kevin Harvick

Ford holds the record for most Pennzoil 400 wins with 12. However, Chevy has 11 wins including four in a row. In fact, Hendrick Motorsports won all four of those Chevy victories. Toyota has not won this race since 2017.

NASCAR Las Vegas Odds

Check out the latest Pennzoil 400 odds:

Pennzoil 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Pennzoil 400:

Christopher Bell +325      

• Driver Standings: 2
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 3

As mentioned above, Christopher Bell has won three races in a row. He dominated in Phoenix last weekend, but was very lucky to win in Atlanta and COTA.

In the Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta, he led the final lap to win the race. At COTA, Bell led only eight laps to take the checkered flag. Needless to say, the #20 car has had some good luck already this season.

Now, he heads to Las Vegas where luck hasn’t been on his side compared to other drivers. In 10 starts, Bell has three Top 5s, five Top 10s, a 17.4 average finish and 1 DNF. He does have two runner ups, but both came in the fall Vegas race.

If we’re just looking at Bell’s spring Vegas results, he has a 33^rd, 7^th, 10^th, 5^th, and 33^rd in five races. That’s an average finish of 17.6, which is about the same as his career average at LVMS.

I have made the mistake of outright dismissing Bell twice over the first four races of the 2025 season and he has made me pay both times.

I am not outright dismissing him this weekend, but there are better options to bet on considering Bell’s lack of success at Vegas and lack of betting value this weekend. Bell is a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling this Sunday.

Kyle Larson +350

• Driver Standings: 11
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 2

Kyle Larson has had an up and down season so far. He started off 20^th at Daytona, finished 3^rd in Atlanta, was 32^nd at COTA, and then finished 3^rd last weekend in Phoenix. In fact, he was less than a second behind Bell and was closing the gap. Realistically, he probably needed another 5 to 10 laps to catch hip.

Nevertheless, Larson is more than capable of a strong result this weekend in Vegas. In fact, betting on Larson to win the Pennzoil 400 would be like betting on black at the roulette table.

In 17 starts at LVMS, Larson has three wins, eight Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, and a 9.4 average finish which leads the Cup Series field. He’s won two of the last three Vegas races and three of the last eight.

Additionally, Larson has five Top 2 finishes in the last eight races. He’s also led laps in seven of those races over that span.

If we’re to look at just Larson’s Pennzoil 400 results, over the last five spring Vegas races, Larson has a 3.0 average finish. He’s won two of those races and finished 2^nd in two more.

I think Larson is starting to find some rhythm on the track with two 3^rd place finishes in the last three Cup Series races. I think the #5 car can be a Top 5 driver with a race winning ceiling this weekend.

Tyler Reddick +550           

• Driver Standings: 3
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 2

Tyler Reddick enters this weekend’s race sitting third in the standings. He’s finished in the Top 20 for all four races so far, but two of those results were 19^th and 20^th. However, he was 2^nd at Daytona and 3^rd at COTA. So, the #45 car has sown some speed already and was in contention for two checkered flags already.

With that said, Las Vegas hasn’t been his best venue. Sure, Reddick is a solid Top 10 driver at the track but he has yet to win at Vegas and has only been a contender once.

In 10 starts, Reddick has zero wins, one Top 5, five Top 10s, a 15.7 average finish and two DNFs. He crashed out of the fall Vegas race last year, but did finish runner up in this race last season. He also has an 11.0 average finish in the last four Pennzoil 400 races.

I think Reddick will be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling for this race on Sunday.

William Byron +750

• Driver Standings: 1
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 3

It may surprise some of you that William Byron sits on top of the Driver Standings and not Bell. One would think that a driver who wins three of the first four races would easily be #1 in the standings. Well, that’s not the case as Byron has a 13-point lead.

After winning the Daytona 500, Byron finished 27^th in Atlanta. However, he bounced back with a 2^nd at COTA and 6^th in Phoenix after starting on the pole. He’s led laps in all four races this season.

The first half of Byron’s Cup Series career at Vegas was rough. He had four finishes of 22^nd or worse in the first six races. However, he’s turned things around since then and has become a strong driver at LVMS.

Over his last six Vegas appearances, Byron has one win, three Top 5s, five Top 10s, and has finished 13^th or better in all of those races. He won the 2023 Pennzoil 400 and was 10^th last year. In fact, he has a 6.0 average finish in the last four Pennzoil 400 races.

Look for Byron to be a Top 10 driver with a race-winning ceiling this weekend.

Denny Hamlin +1000       

• Driver Standings: 7
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2

Like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin has also had an up and down season so far. He was 24^th in Daytona, 6^th in Atlanta, 21^st in Atlanta and 2^nd in Phoenix. Hamlin was under a half second behind Bell in the final laps at Phoenix. Yet, instead of causing a potential wreck, he raced his teammate clean.

At Las Vegas, Hamlin has one win, six Top 5s, 14 Top 10s, and a 12.3 average finish in 26 starts. He’s fifth among the field for average finish and second in starts at LVMS.

Hamlin has seven Top 10 finishes in the last nine races at this track. Over that span, he also has one win and four Top 5s.

Hamlin has had more success in the fall Vegas race than the Pennzoil 400. Over his last four spring Vegas races, Hamlin has a 14.0 average finish. I think his ceiling is a Top 10 finish on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney +1000

• Driver Standings: 4
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2

The 2023 Cup Series champ started off the season with plenty of momentum after finishing 7^th at Daytona and 4^th in Atlanta. However, Ryan Blaney has had two subpar performances since then with a 19^th at COTA and 28^th last weekend. The latter result was due to engine issues.

At Vegas, Blaney is a solid Top 10 driver but has yet to win in 17 starts. Over that span, he has six Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, a 12.6 average finish and 1 DNF.

Over his last five Pennzoil 400 races, Blaney has a 12.8 average finish. However, he was 3^rd in this race last year and 5^th in 2021. So, Blaney clearly has the potential to get up front and contend for a checkered flag.

With that said, I feel more confident penciling the #12 car as a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling in Sunday’s Vegas race.

The Best Pennzoil 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Pennzoil 400 based on their previous success at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway:

Joey Logano +1400

• Driver Standings: 9
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 1

Let’s start with the bad when it comes to the defending Cup Series Champion. In four races so far, Joey Logano has yet to crack the Top 10. His best result was 12^th in Atlanta. Logano has a 21.0 average finish and 1 DNF over the first month of the season.

Ok, so now with the good news for the #22 car. Las Vegas is one of his best tracks. Logano leads all active Cup Series drivers with four wins at Vegas and is second with a 9.5 average finish. In 23 starts, he also has eight Top 5s and 14 Top 10s with just one DNF.

Logano has won four of his last 12 Vegas races including the fall LVMS race last year. He was 9^th in the 2024 Pennzoil 400, but won this race in 2019 and 2020.

When Logano is dialed in, he’s the man to beat at Vegas. Unfortunately, he seems to be getting off to a slow start this season just like he did last year. And, we all know how that turned out.

I think Logano can crack the Top 10 on Sunday, but I don’t expect him to win the race. With that said, there is some value to his Top 10 odds.

Kyle Busch +2000

• Driver Standings: 8
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 3

After getting caught up in a wreck at Daytona, Kyle Busch has turned things around this season. In fact, he’s scored three consecutive Top 8 finishes and even led laps at Atlanta and COTA. In my opinion, he’s already outperforming his entire 2024 season after just one month so far.

Now, Busch heads to Las Vegas where he’s won at in the past. Busch leads all full-time active drivers with 27 starts, 12 Top 5s, and 15 Top 10s. He has the fourth best average finish (11.3) and has an 11.9 average finish in the last four Pennzoil 400 races.

I think Busch offers value with his race-winning odds, Top 5 odds and Top 10 odds. I see the #8 car scoring another Top 10 finish. With a little lucky, he could be contending for the checkered flag.

The Top Pennzoil 400 Longshot

Austin Dillon (+12500) is my longshot bet of the weekend. He really is a Hail Mary for those who like to take a chance on these long odds. Realistically, anyone Below Bubba Wallace at +4000 is highly unlikely to win. But crazy things can happen on the track.

 Dillon has two Top 5s and three Top 10s at Vegas along with a 17.0 average finish. His best result was 4^th in the 2020 Pennzoil 400. It’s going to take a small miracle for Dillon to win, but have fun with his longshot odds.

NASCAR Las Vegas Predictions

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. So, I am going out on a limb to say that Christopher Bell will not win a fourth straight race.

I don’t even have Bell in my Top 5 this weekend. However, I do think he can get up to the Top 7 to 10 drivers. I like for Larson, Byron, Hamlin, Reddick, Blaney and Busch or Logano to finish in the Top 5.

With that said, I will continue applying my Busch logic. I can’t pick him to win a race until after he actually wins one. Busch’s winless drought is real!

This is the kind of track where Blaney can turn things around and get back into contending for a checkered flag. But since he has never won here before, I will eliminate him from the conversation of winning this race. The same can be said about Reddick as well.

I think the Pennzoil 400 will come down to Larson, Byron, and Hamlin. All three drivers have won at Las Vegas in the past. When comparing how all three of these drivers have fared in recent years at Vegas, you have to say that Hamlin is the odd man out.

Hendrick Motorsports has won this race four years in a row with Larson winning two of them (2021 and 2024) and Byron winning one (2023).

Typically, these are the tracks where Larson has dominated at in recent years. He was close to winning at Phoenix and is knocking on the door of a win in 2025. I think Larson opens that door on Sunday and walks through it to victory lane.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+350) 

NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Prop Bets

The following Pennzoil 400 prop bets are courtesy of various sportsbooks like Bet365:

Either To Finish In The Top 3 at Pennzoil 400

Team Penske drivers Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have won the last three NASCAR Cup Series championships. They also have performed well at Las Vegas over recent years.

Although I’m taking Larson or Byron to win this race, I do like the value found with this prop bet as we get Logano or Blaney to crack the Top 3.

Both men are in the Top 6 average finishes for the field. Additionally, Logano won the last race at Vegas in the fall of 2024, while Blaney was third in the 2024 Pennzoil 400 race.

Bet: Blaney or Logano (+150)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Pennzoil 400

William Byron (+125) is my choice for the best Top 5 bet this weekend and it’s due to the balance of his odds with recent success at Vegas.

In his last six LVMS appearances, Byron has three Top 5s including a win in the 2023 Pennzoil 400. He has a 5.5 average finish in the last four Vegas races. In the fall, Byron finished 4^th in the South Point 400.

Bet: William Byron (+125)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Pennzoil 400

One driver I didn’t talk about in great detail is Alex Bowman. I really like his +325 odds for a Top 10 finish. In fact, this is one of my favorite Las Vegas prop bets for the weekend.

In his last five starts, Bowman has three Top 5s and won the 2022 Pennzoil 400 race. His crash in the fall 2023 Vegas race definitely hurts is average finish. However, it’s sitting at a 12.6 including that crash.

Over the last three Pennzoil 400 races, Bowman has a 7.3 average finish. Tripling your bet is a juicy payout.

Alex Bowman (+325)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+115)
• Toyota (+140)
• Ford (+400)

The fact that Ford is such a longshot makes me want to take them as a hedge. Toyota hasn’t won a Pennzoil 400 since 2017. Ford’s Logano has the most wins at Vegas among active drivers in the Cup Series.

I picked a Chevy to win the race, but I really like Ford as a hedge opportunity with odds at 4x your wager.

Bet: Ford (+400)

Team of Race Winner

• Hendrick Motorsports (+150)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+180)
• Team Penske (+575)
• 23XI Racing (+575)
• RFK Racing (+1400)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1600)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2000)
• Spire Motorsports (+4000)
• Front Row Motorsports (+8000)

We can certainly take another hedge on this prop bet, but I think the smart play is to roll with Hendrick Motorsports. Sure, Joe Gibbs Racing is on fire with Bell winning the last three races but they haven’t won a Pennzoil 400 since 2017.

Hendrick has won four consecutive spring Vegas races with three different drivers: Larson twice, Bowman and Byron. So, that doesn’t even include Chase Elliott who is the fourth Hendrick driver.

Bet: Hendrick Motorsports (+150)