2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, November 10, the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season concludes with its annual Championship Race. Four eligible drivers will be competing for this year’s Cup Series Championship, while the entire field is trying to win the final race of the season.

This is the second trip to Phoenix that the Cup Series makes each year. The first race was the Shriners Children’s 500, which took place eight months ago on March 10. Christopher Bell won that race and he is the second odds-on favorite to win this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.

Joining Bell in the Top 5 betting favorites for Sunday’s event are Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick. As you can see, all four of these drivers are the eligible participants for the Cup Series Championship.

Logano, Reddick and Blaney all won races in the Round of 8 to automatically advance to the Final 4. However, Byron’s advancement was due to Bell getting disqualified at Martinsville for a safety rule violation. Prior to the DQ, Bell qualified to move on as the fourth and final driver based on points.

Since this is the last race of the 2024 season, there are so many storylines being weaved into one epic finale. We’re going to try to cover all of the major stories wrapping up in the Arizona desert this weekend.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race odds and make our NASCAR predictions for this weekend’s event at Phoenix Raceway.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Profile

Since the Cup Series changed to the current Playoff format, this fall Phoenix race was typically held as the second to final race of the postseason. However, in 2020, NASCAR changed this event to become the final race of the season. Additionally, NASCAR started naming this event the Cup Series Championship Race in 2021.

The Phoenix Raceway was first built in 1964. It wasn’t until 1988, that the Cup Series started racing at this venue. Over the years, the venue has undergone many upgrades and modifications both to the track and the raceway itself.

The Cup Series races on the oval track that has an asphalt surface and a lap distance of one mile. This track features four turns with varying degrees of banking.

Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 312 miles
• Total Laps: 312 laps
• Stage 1: 75 laps
• Stage 2: 115 laps
• Final Stage: 122 laps

The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race is set to begin at 3:00 pm ET and will air live on NBC.

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Previous NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Winners

Alan Kulwicki won the inaugural race in 1988. However, it’s Kevin Harvick who holds the most wins in this fall Phoenix race with four victories.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they renamed the track after Harvick considering he currently holds the records for most wins (9), Top 5s (20) and Top 10s (31) in this history of Cup Series racing at Phoenix Raceway.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2023: Ross Chastain
• 2022: Joey Logano
• 2021: Kyle Larson
• 2020: Chase Elliott
• 2019: Denny Hamlin
• 2018: Kyle Busch
• 2017: Matt Kenseth
• 2016: Joey Logano
• 2015: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
• 2014: Kevin Harvick

Among the active Cup Series drivers, both Joey Logano and Kyle Busch hold the mark for most wins in this race with two apiece. Currently, there are 10 active drivers who have all won at Phoenix Raceway.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Eligible Drivers

The NASCAR Cup Series Championship will be decided by the following four eligible drivers:

Ryan Blaney (+350)

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 17

Ryan Blaney is the reigning, defending NASCAR Cup Series Champion. He comes into this weekend’s race as the odds-on favorite to win. Yet, that wasn’t always the case for Blaney in the postseason. He entered, the Playoffs at a line of +700 to win the Championship and is now down as low as +250 as sportsbook believe he will defend his title.

Blaney made the following comments about winning the Championship two years in a row:

“It’s something really hard to do any sport, to go back to back. You have to perform two years in a row — you and your team have to do it and have perfect ends of the year. It’s really tough. We have a pretty unique opportunity to try to change that [stat], and hopefully we bring our best stuff and have a shot at it.”

Blaney started off the postseason with a 3rd in Atlanta, a 38^th at Watkins Glen (38th) and a 6^th in Bristol to advance to the next round.

In the Round of 12, Blaney finished 4th in Kansas, 39^th at Talladega, and 10^th at Charlotte’s ROVAL.  He narrowly advanced to the Round of 8. In fact, he was below the cutoff line to start this round.

Blaney began with a 32^nd in Las Vegas and a second-place finish at Homestead-Miami. Yet, he was still on the outside looking in at the Final 4.

Surprisingly, at Martinsville, Blaney stormed to the front of the race, edged out both Elliott and Larson, and would go on to win the Xfinity 500 event. The victory locked Blaney into this Championship Race.

In 17 starts at Phoenix, Blaney has eight Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, a 10.9 average finish, and eight straight Top 10 results. In fact, he has six consecutive Top 5 finishes. Further digging into Blaney’s stats at this venue, he has three second place results in the last four Phoenix races.

The only thing missing from Blaney’s Phoenix resume is a win at this track. Can the #12 car win this race and a second consecutive Cup Series Championship?

William Byron (+600) 

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 20

William Byron comes into this race as the third odds-on favorite to win. He’s also tied with Ryan Blaney at +250 odds to win the Cup Series Championship.

At the start of the 2024 Cup Series postseason, Byron had odds of +600 to win the title. They went as high as +750 in the Round of 12 before coming back down to +650 in the Round of 8.

Initially, I had Byron being eliminated at the conclusion of the Round of 8. Yet, that all changed for me in the Round of 12 when the #24 car started putting together an impressive postseason streak.

In fact, I felt so strongly about Byron’s chances to advance to the Final 4, that I bounced Reddick from my initial selection. The #24 car never let me down once I jumped on his bandwagon. Byron had three consecutive Top 6 finishes in the Round of 8, and six straight Top 6 results overall.

In 13 Phoenix starts, Byron has one win, two Top 5s, 7 Top 10s and an 11.8 average finish which is the 5^th best among the field. Byron’s win came in the spring of 2023, which was three Phoenix races ago.

Blaney and Logano might have more Top 5s and Top 10s than Byron, in Logano’s case he has more wins, but Byron has a strong Pheonix resume and has the most consistent momentum of the final four drivers.

In fact, Byron feels that his consistency is a big factor in his chances to win the Championship this weekend:

“I feel like the driver that is capable of winning this championship. And the reason I say that is because, yes, we haven’t won yet [in the playoffs], but it’s coming, and we’ve been working towards it nonstop. We’ve been incredibly consistent, incredibly fast, and it’s just a matter of time for our team.”

Joey Logano (+700)

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 6
• Top 10: 12

Joey Logano enters this weekend as the 4^th odds-on favorite to win the race and third in betting odds to win the Championship (+270). It’s a bit surprising that Logano’s odds are not the odds-on favorite among the final drivers considering he’s won two Cup Series Championships.

With that said, Logano’s Playoff run has been even more surprising than his lack of Championship respect. The two-time champion summarized his season to date:

“Making the Championship 4 is an accomplishment of itself. Getting here is not easy. You have to have a regular season that helps set you up to get through the playoffs. And if you don’t, then you have to have a hell of a run through the playoffs and win the best races, the most important races. We didn’t have the best regular season. We figured out how to have a solid playoff, winning a couple of them and put ourselves in the Championship 4.”

The #22 car began the postseason by winning in Atlanta, which automatically locked him into the Round of 12. Logano went on to score four straight finishes of 14^th or worse following that win in Atlanta.

He was below the cutoff line heading into Charlotte’s ROVAL race, which was the final event for the Round of 12. The #22 car must have had a lucky rabbit foot with him because he moved on to the Round of 8 due to Alex Bowman getting disqualified.

Logano capitalized on his good fortune by winning the first race in the Round of 8 – the South Point 400 at Las Vegas. The victory automatically advanced Logano into this weekend’s Championship Race.

In 31 Phoenix starts, Logano has three wins, eight Top 5s, 16 Top 10s and a 13.5 average finish with 5 DNFs.

He crashed out of this year’s Spring Phoenix race. Yet, it should be noted that Logano won this fall Phoenix race in 2022, the same year that he won the Cup Series Championship.

No other active Cup Series driver has more wins that Logano at Phoenix. In fact, only Kyle Busch has as many as the #22 car. Will Logano make it a 4^th career Phoenix win and a third Cup Series Championship this weekend?

Tyler Reddick (+800)

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 20

I’ve had quite the love-hate relationship with Tyler Reddick this postseason. At the start of the Playoffs, I was 100% backing Tyler Reddick to make the Final 4. For the first two rounds of the postseason, I was still riding with Reddick to make the Championship Race. Unfortunately, that all changed heading into the Round of 8.

Other than his Top 10 finish in Atlanta, Reddick had no other Top 10 result heading into the Round of 8. Reddick began the round with a 35^th result in Las Vegas and he appeared dead in the water.

The #45 car had five consecutive finishes outside of the Top 10, with four finishes of 20^th or worse, and two of those were 25^th or worse. It appeared that all of his regular season success was being flushed down the toilet and that Reddick was not going to advance. I, along with most other pundits and bettors, had written him off.

Then came Homestead-Miami. And, we saw the regular season Reddick return as he won the Straight Talk Wireless 400. Brake problems caused him to finish 34^th in Martinsville last weekend, but it didn’t matter since he was already locked into the Championship Race.

In nine Phoenix starts, Reddick has two Top 5s and three Top 10s. He also has a 17.9 average finish, which is easily the worst of the Final 4 drivers. Blaney (2^nd), Byron (5^th), and Logano (7^th) are all better than Reddick’s 14^th average finish.

I’m not guaranteeing that Reddick loses out on the championship this weekend, but I’m definitely declaring that you should avoid betting on the #45 car unless it’s against him in a NASCAR head-to-head prop bet.

However, if you ask Michael Jordan, he believes Reddick and his team will win the championship this weekend:

“The race team is going to focus on what they have to do this weekend, which I expect them to. … I’m looking forward to winning a championship this weekend.”

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Best of The Rest

The following drivers are not qualified for the 2024 Cup Series Championship, but they are still eligible to compete for the checkered flag at Phoenix Raceway:

Christopher Bell +400

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 14
• Top 10: 22

Bell’s bad luck last weekend in Martinsville is still a hot topic as we head into the Championship Race. Only Alex Bowman can relate to Bell’s disappointment of being disqualified from advancing due to a perceived rule violation.

I had Bell as one of my Final 4 drivers since the Playoffs started. Needless to say, I thought it sucked for the #20 car as it didn’t seem like he was intentionally riding along the wall. Nevertheless, Bell didn’t advance. Yet, I do see this talented driver seeking revenge on Sunday in the form of trying to win this race.

In nine Phoenix starts, Bell has one win, one Top 5, five Top 10s, and a 15.3 average finish. He won at this raceway in March and has three Top 10s in the last four Phoenix races. Last year, Bell crashed out of the race.

I like Bell’s chances to compete for a checkered flag. I think he can be a Top 10 driver with a race winning ceiling.

Kyle Larson +1000

• Wins: 6
• Top 5: 14
• Top 10: 17

Now, we get to the part of the article where I hang my head low in somber. I slump over in sadness. I’m dejected with overwhelming disappointment. Have I laid this on thick enough?

Kyle Larson finished third in Martinsville last weekend, but was below the cutoff line and eliminated from the Playoffs. This was a sad ending to a stellar season for my favorite Cup Series driver.

Larson led the field with the most victories this year, but he couldn’t come up with one in the Round of 8 to lock in a Final 4 spot. It goes to show that NASCAR’s Playoff format does work as it provides intrigue along with drivers needing to compete every week in the postseason.

In 20 Phoenix starts, Larson has one win, eight Top 5s, 12 Top 10s, and an 11.4 average finish which is fourth best among the field. Larson won this race in 2021, when he won the Championship.

The #5 car is a Top 10 driver with a race winning ceiling. He can easily get up there and spoil things for the Championship 4 drivers.

Denny Hamlin +1200

• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 12
• Top 10: 18

Like Bell and Larson, I had Denny Hamlin as one of the Final 4 drivers all along. Unfortunately, a strong Round of 8 wasn’t enough for the #11 car to advance to the Championship Race. Hamlin was well below the cutoff line entering the Round of 8 and, despite three Top 8 finishes, he still ended up getting eliminated.

It’s crazy that a three-win driver, who had six Top 10 finishes in the last seven Playoff races, can miss out on the Championship Race. But that’s one of the things we love about this Cup Series Playoff format. Well, we love it for other drivers just not with Larson.

With that said, I’m not ready to crown Hamlin as the King of Phoenix just yet. But the #11 car is the best at this venue since Kevin Harvick retired.

In 38 starts, Hamlin has two wins, 16 Top 5s, 22 Top 10s and a 10.8 average finish. He leads the field in Top 5s and average finish, while coming in second for most wins and Top 10s.

It’s been five years since Hamlin last won this race. Unfortunately, he didn’t go on to win the Championship that year.

This weekend, I see Hamlin as a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling. I don’t believe he will win as it’s been over seven months since Hamlin last won a race this year.

Martin Truex Jr. +2000

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 11

Perhaps the biggest storyline for this weekend’s race other than the Championship, is Martin Truex Jr. retiring from full-time race at the conclusion of Sunday’s event.

Truex has been a full-time driver since 2006, and has 34 Cup Series wins with a Championship in 2017. Unfortunately, many of those wins came in 2021 and prior. Since then, Truex has just three wins in the last three years. In 2022, he had zero victories. And, this year, Truex will end up with no wins as I don’t see the retiring driver pick up a victory on Sunday.

Speaking on Sunday’s race, Truex made the following comments about his final full-time Cup Series event:

“I’d like to spoil the championship party. You’d love to win that thing. It’s happened before. We’ve been pretty good there. And hopefully, we can find something a little bit extra and go there. Going out with a win would be the most amazing thing ever short of a championship, obviously, which is impossible. But just want to go have fun and enjoy the last race with the team.”

I’ve been a fan of Truex since he came up as a full-time driver with DEI. I’ve rooted for him for the better part of the last 20 years, even when he was in the Xfinity Series. It’s sad to see the day when athletes you root for end up retiring.

Sure, Truex is going to try and participate in some races next year, like the Daytona 500. However, it’s not the same.

As for this weekend’s event, Truex will be lucky to finish in the Top 10. He has two Top 7 finishes in the last two races at this venue, but he’s just not been a good driver the second half of the season. I would love to see Truex to win and ride off into the proverbial sunset. Unfortunately, a Top 10 is the most we can realistically hope for.

Kyle Busch +6000

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

Kyle Busch started as a full-time Cup Series driver in 2005. Since then, he’s won a race every year since then including two Championships in 2015 and 2019. Unfortunately, that streak is on the verge of ending as Busch has not won a race this season.

He came close to winning at Daytona and Darlington to close out the regular season, but the #8 car could only muster up a two second place results.

Now, he heads to Phoenix with the hope that the #8 car can find a way into the winner’s circle. In 38 starts, Busch has three wins, 12 Top 5s, 26 Top 10s, and a 11.2 average finish which is third best among the field. He’s tied for the most active wins, second in Top 5s and leads in Top 10s among active drivers.

Unfortunately, Busch has two consecutive Phoenix finishes of 22^nd or worse. That snapped a four-race streak of 8^th or better.

On the season, Busch will finish with the fewest number of Top 5s and Top 10s since he became a full-time driver. Needless to say, this has been his worst season since 2004. I don’t see Busch winning this race and he will also be lucky to crack the Top 10.

The Best Top 5 Bet for Phoenix Raceway

Kyle Larson (+180) is my choice for the best Top 5 bet this weekend. Larson has two Top 5s in the last three races and seven in the last 11 races, which includes a win in the 2021 edition of this event.

I would not be surprised at all if Larson ends the season with his 7^th win. The #5 car is certainly capable of winning on any given Sunday. However, at +180 odds, there’s enough value to justify a flier on Larson even if he’s not competing for the Championship.

The Best Top 10 Bet for Phoenix Raceway

Denny Hamlin (-160) is my choice for the best Top 10 bet and that’s due to his dominant run at Phoenix. In 38 starts, Hamlin has 22 Top 10 finishes which breaks down to a 57.9% Top 10 finishing rate.

Since winning this race in 2019, Hamlin has five Top 10s in the last nine races. For his career, he has a 10.8 average finish. Although he’s not competing for the Championship like his team’s driver (Reddick), Hamlin should finish in the Top 10 this weekend.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Predictions: Who Wins?

In three of the last four years, the Cup Series Championship race was won by the eventual champion: Elliott in 2020, Larson in 2021, and Logano in 2022. However, last year, Ross Chastain became the first non-Championship eligible driver to win this race since Hamlin nearly a decade ago.

So, we need to decide with our predictions whether or not a Championship eligible driver will win or a non-eligible driver will steal the checkered flag.

Larson, Bell, Hamlin and even Elliott are all highly capable of winning this Sunday’s race. However, the Championship 4 drivers are all capable as well. Especially Logano, Blaney and Byron.

I think Blaney is the measuring stick for this weekend’s race. He’s scored six consecutive Top 5 finishes and seven straight Top 10 results.

With that said, I love the consistency and momentum that Byron has coming into this weekend. He’s got six consecutive Top 6 finishes in the Playoffs and has won at Phoenix before.

Since Larson isn’t in the Championship Race, I’m going to take his Hendrick Motorsports teammate to win the 2024 Cup Series Championship.

Bet: William Byron (+600)

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Finish Top 3: Larson or Bell (-175)

I believe that Bell and Larson can both finish in the Top 3 if they stay out of trouble and have good cars. Furthermore, the only other two drivers that I believe can compete for a Top 3 spot are Blaney and Byron.

Bet: Larson or Bell (-175)

Winning Manufacturer

• Toyota (+150)
• Ford (+170)
• Chevrolet (+220)

I picked William Byron and his Chevy car to win the Cup Series Championship by winning this race. However, picking a different manufacturer would give us a great chance at hedging out bets.

With that said, I’m going with Toyota for a small hedge opportunity. I would love for Martin Truex Jr. and his Toyota car to win this race. However, that’s just wishful thinking. Both Bell and Hamlin drive Toyotas and are very capable of winning at Phoenix.

Bet: Ford (+170)

Team of Race Winner

• Team Penske (+190)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+190)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+240)
• 23XI Racing (+750)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1600)
• RFK Racing (+2000)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+2000)
• Richard Childress Racing (+4000)
• Spire Motorsports (+12500)

I picked Chevy and Hendrick Motorsports to win this race with Byron. Then, in the prop bet above, I took Toyota and three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers (Bell, Hamlin, Truex) to win the race.

So, for this prop bet, let’s keep the hedging going by taking Team Penske. Both Blaney and Logano are Penske drivers and they both are competing for the Cup Series Championship. Logano has three wins at Phoenix already and Blaney has the most consistent Top 5 finishes among the field over the last five years.

Bet: Team Penske (+190)