2025 Shriners Children’s 500 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, March 9, NASCAR’s Cup Series heads to the Phoenix Raceway for their fourth race of the season. This weekend’s race will be the first of the Cup Series’ two annual trips to Phoenix. Their second event will be during the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

Not only is Christopher Bell the defending winner of this Phoenix race, but he’s also the winner of last weekend’s race at COTA. Bell was able to pull away late to win the EchoPark Autmotive Grand Prix. It marked a second straight win for Bell as he also won the Amber Health 400 in Atlanta two weeks ago.

Over the first three weeks, Bell and William Byron have been the two best drivers. The latter won the Daytona 500 to start the season and was runner up to Bell last weekend in Texas. Ironically, these two drivers have also won the last two spring Phoenix races.

So, it should come as no surprise that Bell and Byron are two of the odds-on favorites to win on Sunday. Joining the duo in the Top 5 betting favorites are Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest Shriner’s Children 500 odds and make our NASCAR picks for this weekend’s NASCAR Phoenix race.

Shriners Children’s 500 Race Profile

Phoenix Raceway has been a part of the NASCAR calendar since 1988. However, a second Phoenix Race didn’t join the calendar until 2005, when NASCAR decided to add a spring race.

Since then, Phoenix Raceway has become an important track for both the Cup Series and the Xfinity Series circuits. The raceway is considered a dogleg oval with a one-mile lap distance and four turns that feature banking from nine to 11 degrees.

Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500 breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 312 miles
• Total Laps: 312 laps
• Stage 1: 60 laps
• Stage 2: 125 laps
• Final Stage: 127 laps

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Shriners Children’s 500 Winners

As we only focus on this spring race and not the venue as a whole, Kevin Harvick holds the record for the most spring Phoenix wins with five. No active driver has more than one win. The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2024: Christopher Bell
• 2023: William Byron
• 2022: Chase Briscoe
• 2021: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2020: Joey Logano
• 2019: Kyle Busch
• 2018: Kevin Harvick
• 2017: Ryan Newman
• 2016: Kevin Harvick
• 2015: Kevin Harvick

Six different active drivers have won in the spring Phoenix race: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Chase Briscoe, William Byron and Christopher Bell.

Shriners Children’s 500 Betting Odds

Check out the latest Shriners Children’s 500 odds:

Shriners Children’s 500 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Shriners Children’s 500:

Christopher Bell +425      

• Driver Standings: 4
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 2         

Despite winning two races on the season, Christopher Bell only sits fourth in the Driver Standings. However, don’t read too much into that because he’s guaranteed himself a spot in the Playoffs already. In fact, so has William Byron as I doubt, we will get 17 different winners in the 26-race regular season.

As mentioned above, Bell is the defending winner of this spring Phoenix race. He led 50 laps in that race. Yet, in the fall Phoenix race, Bell led 143 laps and finished 5^th. So, he has a 3.0 average finish in his last two races at this venue.

For his career, Bell has one win, two Top 5s, six Top 10s, a 14.3 average finish, and one DNF in 10 starts at Phoenix Raceway.

With the way Bell is driving this season so far, combined with his success at this venue last year, it’s easy to see why the #20 car is the odds-on favorite for Sunday’s race.

Can Bell win three weeks in a row?

Ryan Blaney +500

• Driver Standings: 2
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2         

Ryan Blaney is without a doubt the best driver to have never won at Phoenix. In other words, he has the best Phoenix resume without a victory.

In 18 Phoenix starts, Blaney has nine Top 5s, 13 Top 10s and a 10.4 average finish which leads the field. He also has nine consecutive Top 10 finishes and seven straight Top 5 results.

If that wasn’t impressive enough, Blaney has four 2^nd place finishes in the last five races at this venue. It truly is a remarkable run for the 2023 Cup Series champ and he has to be the man to beat this weekend. Despite Bell’s momentum this season, Blaney’s dominance at Phoenix puts him as the car to beat for me.

Kyle Larson +600   

• Driver Standings: 16
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 1         

It’s safe to say that Kyle Larson’s season has not gotten off to the start that his team would’ve liked. And, speaking as a fan, I would have to say that things are a bit disappointing with the #5 car. However, that could change this weekend.

In 21 starts at Phoenix, Larson has one win, nine Top 5s, 13 Top 10s, and an 11.0 average finish which is the third best among the field.

Over his last 12 appearances at this venue, Larson has one win, eight Top 5s, and 10 Top 10s. Furthermore, the #5 car has three Top 4 finishes in the last four races at this venue.

In 2023, Larson dominated this race as he led 201 laps. Unfortunately, he faded in the final laps to finish 4^th overall. So, he has the potential to be the best card on Sunday, but that also requires Larson and his team to finish strong as well.

I can see a scenario where Larson contends for the checkered flag. So, lock him in as a Top 10 driver with a race-winning ceiling.

William Byron +800

• Driver Standings: 1
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 2        

We touched on William Byron’s success this year, earlier in the article. However, adding to it, we see that Byron sits on top of the driver standings this year after the first three races. And, there’s a good chance that he stays there after Sunday’s race.

Byron has 14 starts at this venue and won this race in 2023. Additionally, he has three Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and an 11.1 average finish which is 4^th best among the field.

Over his last five Phoenix races, Byron has one win, three Top 5s, and four Top 10s. He’s also led a sizable number of laps over that span as well.

I have no doubt that Byron can be a strong car this weekend. Between his 2025 success so far, along with his strong run at Phoenix over the last few years, the #24 car is going to be a contender for the checkered flag by time it’s all said and done.

Chase Elliott +900 

• Driver Standings: 5
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 1         

It should come as no surprise that we have three of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers listed in the Top 5 betting favorites for the Shriners Children’s 500 race.

Hendrick’s Chase Elliott, Byron and Larson have all won at Phoenix in their careers. Additionally, all three drivers are in the Top 6 for best average finishes at this track.

In the case of Elliott and Byron, they sit in the Top 5 of the driver standings which also means that they have solid momentum coming into a venue where they’ve had previous success at.

For Elliott, he has one win, five Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and the sixth best average finish of 12.4 in 17 career starts at Phoenix. However, his last five races have been subpar for the #9 car. Over that span, he only has one Top 10. Most of his success has come prior to 2022.

With that said, I do see Elliott being a Top 10 car this weekend. However, with how down his year was last season, I need to see Elliott win a race this year before I can feel confident in picking him to enter victory lane.

As you saw with COTA last weekend, a road race that he’s been great at in the past, Elliott finished 4^th. So, he has some success but not enough to win the race. I feel the same thing will happen this weekend as well.

Joey Logano +900

• Driver Standings: 13
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0         

It’s safe to say that Joey Logano is off to a slow start. In fact, it’s been downright disappointing for the reigning Cup Series Champion. There was a lot of confidence and excitement for the #22 team heading into the 2025 season. Unfortunately, he’s fallen short of expectations over the first month.

Good thing is, Logano did the same last year and still won the championship. So, this is one team you don’t have to panic with in regards to their Playoff chances.

Although Logano has yet to crack the Top 10 over the first three races of the season, there is hope that the #22 car can do so in Phoenix this weekend. And, with a little luck, he could be contending for the checkered flag.

In 32 starts at this venue, Logano has four wins, nine Top 5s, 17 Top 10s, and a 13.1 average finish. He leads the Cup Series’ field of active drivers with four victories at Phoenix.  

Logano has won three of his last 10 races at this track including two in his last five appearances. Although he crashed out of this race last year, Logano did win the Phoenix race for the Championship last November.

I do think Logano’s odds are overvalued considering he’s struggled so far this season. So, he might be a driver you wait to see how practice goes before wagering on.

The Best Shriners Children’s 500 Betting Value

The following drivers are my NASCAR picks for the best betting value in the Shriners Children’s 500 based on their previous success at the Phoenix Raceway:

Kyle Busch +2500

• Driver Standings: 9
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 1
• Top 10: 2         

Despite falling short in the first three races of the season, Kyle Busch enters this weekend sitting 9^th in the driver standings and has arguably the best Phoenix resume in the field.

Sure, Logano has more wins, but Busch has dominated at this track over his career. In 39 starts, he has three wins, 12 Top 5s, 26 Top 10s, an 11.5 average finish and just one DNF. Those are staggering numbers that put him in the Top 2 for wins, Top 5s and Top 10s. He’s also 5^th for average finish.

I like Busch’s odds much more than I like Logano’s or Elliott’s. In fact, I love Busch’s Top 10 odds this weekend. We’ll dive into that more below.

Brad Keselowski +3000

• Driver Standings: 26
• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 0
• Top 10: 0         

Brad Keselowski is more of a stretch at taking a flier on than even our longshot of Bubba Wallace below. In 32 Phoenix starts, the #6 car has zero wins, nine Top 5s, 14 Top 10s, and a 13.6 average finish.

These numbers aren’t as great as some of the drivers above, but they do put him in the conversation of cracking the Top 10 and needing luck to enter victory lane. Also, Keselowski did finish 4^th in last year’s Shriners Children’s 500 race, so he does have some recent success at this track as well.

The former Cup Series champ needs to turn things around and this is a track where even a Top 10 will give this team some momentum moving forward.

The Top Shriners Children’s 500 Longshot

Bubba Wallace (+5000) is my pick for the top longshot this weekend. Realistically, anyone below Keselowski is going to have a hard time winning in Phoenix. However, Wallace has done a respectable job over the last handful of races at this venue.

In his last four appearances, Wallace has two Top 10s and a 11.7 average finish. These are far better than his career numbers at this track. With that said, it would be better taking a flier on his Top 10 odds than his race-winning line. But I know how some of you love to risk money on the longshots.

Shriners Children’s 500 Predictions

This race is harder to predict than one might think. And, that’s due to the number of drivers who can actually take the checkered flag on Sunday.

After narrowing it down, my Top 5 drivers are Bell, Byron, Blaney, Larson, Logano or Hamlin. I didn’t talk much about Hamlin above, but the #11 car has a 10.8 average finish at this venue which is the second best among the field. However, he hasn’t cracked the Top 5 in this race since 2021.

Logano has two wins in his last five Phoenix races, but they both came in the Playoffs. He also hasn’t cracked the Top 5 since 2021. So, let’s wait to see if the Champ can win a race, before we pick him to win again.

Also, I can’t see Bell winning three races in a row on the season despite what the oddsmakers and best handicappers say. Then again, I also didn’t see Bell winning two in a row, so it’s not an impossible task. It’s just one that I won’t wager on.

I think this race comes down to Byron, Blaney and Larson. Three drivers who excel at Phoenix and on similar tracks. I have a feeling that we’re going to see a different winner than Byron or Bell this weekend and I think that comes from Blaney or Larson.

Blaney is always the bridesmaid and never the bride at this track, but Larson has won before. So, do we think Blaney picks up his first Phoenix win this Sunday or do we believe that Larson will finally get on the board with a win this season?

This really is a tough call. You can go either way. I’m going to side with Larson this weekend. I think he turns things around and reminds everyone why the #5 car is one of the best in the field.

Bet: Kyle Larson (+600)

NASCAR Shriners Children’s 500 Prop Bets

The following Shriners Children’s 500 prop bets are courtesy of various sportsbooks like Bet365:

Either To Finish In The Top 3 at Phoenix

Team Penske is my pick for this prop bet as I believe either Ryan Blaney or Joey Logano will finish in the Top 3. More than likely, it will be Blaney but Logano does have the most wins at Phoenix among the field of active drivers and was victorious in the most recent race at this venue.

With that said, Blaney’s numbers are staggering at Phoenix and he could easily win this race if things break his way in the final laps.

Bet: Ryan Blaney or Joey Logano (-135)

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Shriners Children’s 500

As you can see from above, Ryan Blaney (-125) is my pick for the best Top 5 bet of the Shriners Children’s 500 race. Sure, he has not won at this venue as of yet, but his stats are eye popping.

Blaney leads the field with a 10.4 average finish. He also has a 50% Top 5 finishing rate with nine Top 5s in 18 appearances. Furthermore, he’s put together a staggering streak of seven consecutive Top 5 finishes and nine straight Top 10 results.

If that weren’t enough to make you drool over Blaney this weekend, the #12 car has four runner ups in the last five Phoenix races.

Bet: Ryan Blaney (-125)

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Shriners Children’s 500

For as much as we are drooling over Blaney’s Top 5 odds, we love this Kyle Busch (+140) wager even more.

Busch has 26 Top 10s in 39 starts at Phoenix, which is a 66.7% Top 10 finishing rate. He also has the 6^th best average finish (11.5) and only one DNF.

In his last seven spring Phoenix races, Busch has one win, three Top 5s, five Top 10s, and a 9.7 average finish. 

When you take his Phoenix success and his early season success so far, Busch is a no-brainer for this NASCAR prop bet.

Bet: Kyle Busch (+140)

Winning Manufacturer

• Toyota (+150)
• Chevrolet (+160)
• Ford (+230)

I have Chevy winning this race, but any of these manufacturers can win. Toyota is flying high this season so far and they certainly have had their share of success at this venue.

With that said, let’s stick with Chevy as their odds are slightly better than Toyota. Plus, I like the next prop bet as a hedge opportunity more than this one.

Bet: Chevrolet (+160)

Team of Race Winner

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+160)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+200)
• Team Penske (+325)
• 23XL Racing (+1100)
• RFK Racing (+1200)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1400)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2500)
• Woods Brothers Racing (+3500)
• Spire Motorsports (+5000)

As mentioned above, I’m looking at this prop bet as a way to hedge our race-winning bet. With that said, I’m taking Team Penske and their +325 odds. You can give me Blaney and Logano just about every week when it comes to betting on their race-winning chances.

Bet: Team Penske (+325)

Winning Car Number

• Over 17.5 (-115)
• Under 17.5 (-115)

I really like the Under for this prop bet. The Under 17.5 features the following cars: Chastain (1), Cindric (2), Gragson (4), Larson (5), Keselowski (6), Busch (8), Elliott (9), Hamlin (11), and Blaney (12).

As you can see, I have several of these drivers in my Top 5 and contending for the checkered flag this weekend.

Bet: Under 17.5 (-115)