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NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge
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The 2025 NASCAR season got off to a tremendous start in Daytona last weekend with exciting races throughout all three of NASCAR’s circuits. From the trucks on Valentine’s Day to the sport’s top stockcars competing in the Daytona 500, the opening weekend of 2025 was packed with on-track action and off-track drama.
This week, NASCAR’s top circuits head to Atlanta for two days of racing at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. The green flag drops on the Craftsman Truck Fr8 208 race at 1:30pm on Saturday, February 22. FS1 will provide truck racing fans full coverage.
Later that evening, the Xfinity Series will take to the speedway with the Bennett Transportation and Logistics 250 race live on CW beginning at 5pm ET. Yes, that’s definitely a lengthy race name and a mouthful to say, but it’s also nothing new when it comes to NASCAR. At least we’re not naming things after cigarettes anymore.
Lastly, the Cup Series will finish off the weekend with Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400 race. That event begins at 3pm ET live on FOX.
With that said, let’s pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week.
NASCAR Picks Today
| NASCAR Bets | Favorites | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Top Chevrolet Driver in Atlanta | Kyle Busch (+450) | Chase Elliott (+550) |
| Top Ford Driver in Atlanta | Ryan Blaney (+260) | Ryan Blaney (+260) |
| Top Toyota Driver in Atlanta | Denny Hamlin (+300) | Christopher Bell (+400) |
| Xfinity Atlanta Winner | Austin Hill (+300) | Austin Hill (+300) |
| Xfinity Atlanta Top 5 Finish | Austin Hill (-210) | Jordan Love (+100) |
| Fr8 208 Winner | Kyle Busch (+250) | Kyle Busch (+250) |
| Fr8 208 Top 5 Finish | Kyle Busch (-275) | Ben Rhodes (+220) |
NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week
- Race: Ambetter Health 400
- Race #: 2nd of the season
- Date: February 23, 2025
- Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
The Ambetter Health 400 means we’ll have a second consecutive week of high-speed racing as the Cup Series competes on a 1.5-mile speedway.
Last weekend, William Byron won the Daytona 500 race after surviving the rain and wrecks. It was a remarkable performance for Byron as he’s now won two Daytona 500 races in a row.
This weekend, Byron is one of a handful of betting favorites sitting at the top of the odds-boards. Like we do every week, you can find our complete breakdown of the Cup Series race in a separate piece from this article. Let’s take a look at who we think will be the top drivers for each manufacturer, without giving away our NASCAR pick for the race winner.
Top Chevrolet Driver In The Ambetter Health 400
- Kyle Busch (+450)
- William Byron (+450)
- Chase Elliott (+550)
- Kyle Larson (+800)
- Ross Chastain (+800)
- Alex Bowman (+800)
Last weekend, we took Byron’s teammate Alex Bowman to finish as the top Chevy driver. Bowman was a sneaky pick that flew under the radar, but had a decent amount of success at Daytona over the last few years. The #48 ended up 6th overall.
Speaking of that car number, the man who made it famous ended up third in the Daytona 500 – Jimmie Johson. The seven-time champ turned back the hands of time last weekend and it was really cool to see.
This weekend, I’m taking another one of Byron’s Hendrick Motorsports teammates to finish as the top Chevy driver. I like Chase Elliott to lead the Chevy pack, finish in the Top 5 and contender for a checkered flag.
Elliott has the second-best average finish among full-time Cup drivers (11.5). He’s put together an 8.3 average finish over the last six races which includes an Atlanta win in the Summer of 2022.
Elliott had some good moments last weekend in Daytona, but came up short due to the late-lap carnage. I see the #9 car bouncing back in a big way.
Bet: Chase Elliott (+550)
Top Ford Driver In The Ambetter Health 400
- Ryan Blaney (+260)
- Joey Logano (+300)
- Austin Cindric (+425)
- Brad Keselowski (+500)
- Chris Buescher (+1000)
Let’s not overthink it here. Ryan Blaney should be the top Ford driver on Sunday. Last weekend, I chose Logano and he was near the front in the final laps. Unfortunately, the defending Cup Series champ was caught in a big wreck and wiped out of contention.
Blaney ended up finishing 7th in the Daytona 500 and is the odds-on favorite to lead Ford this weekend. And, you know what, I fully agree.
In 13 Atlanta starts, Blaney has one win, six Top 5s, eight Top 10s and the best average finish (10.0) among the field. More importantly, Blaney has five consecutive Top 9 finishes in Atlanta and was runner-up in this race last year.
Not only will he be the Top Ford driver this Sunday, but he’s the man to beat in the Ambetter Health 400.
Bet: Ryan Blaney (+260)
Top Toyota Driver In The Ambetter Health 400
- Denny Hamlin (+300)
- Christopher Bell (+400)
- Bubba Wallace (+500)
- Tyler Reddick (+575)
- Chase Briscoe (+575)
- Ty Gibbs (+1000)
Toyota was the biggest benefactor of the late-race crashes last weekend. Four Toyota drivers finished in the Top 5 at the Daytona 500, with Tyler Reddick scoring a runner-up result.
I had Bubba Wallace finishing as the top Toyota driver last weekend, but he got caught up in a late-lap wreck that also collected drivers like Logano, Keselowski and Busch.
This weekend, I’m moving away from Wallace and leaning towards Christopher Bell. His teammate Denny Hamlin has had more success at this track, but Bell is due for a big result in Atlanta. So, you can say this is more of a gut feeling than an educated bet.
Bell crashed out of this race last year, but was third in the 2023 Ambetter Health 400. Additionally, he finished 4th in the second Atlanta race last season. So, this talented Joe Gibbs Racing driver is definitely capable of a high finish and challenging for the checkered flag on Sunday.
Before you diehard Hamlin fans blow up my inbox, he’s had four finishes of 23rd or worse in the last six Atlanta races. He was a better bet for the Daytona 500 than the Ambetter Health 400.
Bet: Christopher Bell (+400)
NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week
- Race: Bennett Transportation and Logistics 250
- Race #: 2nd of the season
- Date: February 22, 2025
- Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
The Xfinity Series got off to a hot start last weekend with an exciting Daytona race that saw Jordan Love take the checkered flag for Richard Childress Racing. He was one of our Top 5 finishers for last week and someone we thought could upstage his teammate Austin Hill for the victory.
This weekend, Austin Hill once again sits on top of the odds-boards as the betting favorite. He’s followed by the usual cast of characters who are also top contenders for the Xfinity Series Championship.
Bennett Transportation and Logistics 250 Odds
- Austin Hill (+300)
- Jesse Love (+600)
- Aric Almirola (+650)
- Justin Allgaier (+900)
- Sheldon Creed (+1100)
- Connor Zilisch (+1400)
- Sam Mayer (+1500)
- Nicholas Sanchez (+2000)
- Harrison Burton (+2000)
- Brandon Jones (+2000)
- Christian Eckes (+2500)
Bennett Transportation and Logistics 250 Favorites
Austin Hill (+300) is without a doubt the betting favorite to win on Saturday. In six Atlanta races, Hill has four wins, five Top 5s, and five Top 10s. His series leading average finish is an outstanding 3.0. Even more impressive is the fact that his worst result was 12th in the 2023 fall race.
Hill was also the large favorite for Daytona last weekend, but engine failure ended his race early despite leading 56 of the first 82 laps and winning both of the first two stages.
Jesse Love (+600)
Here’s what I predicted for Jesse Love last weekend in Daytona:
“If Love can recapture his magic from the first half of last year’s United Rentals 300, then there’s a great chance we can see Love upstage his Richard Childress teammate Hill.”
Well, that’s exactly what happened. Love upstaged his teammate Hill due to his solid driving and his teammate’s bad luck.
This weekend, Love is a contender to win again. He’s proven to be a strong driver on the longer speedways and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was racing his teammate for the checkered flag.
Aric Almirola (+650)
The soon-to-be 41-year-old is set to compete in nine Xfinity races this season under the Joe Gibbs Racing banner. Although it’s a cool story, Almirola hasn’t competed in a Xfinity Atlanta race since 2017. In his three Atlanta appearances, he has an 18.0 average finish and just an 8th spot as his top result.
Justin Allgaier (+900)
There was a time when Justin Allgaier was a lock to make the Top 10 in Atlanta. Unfortunately, that has not been the case over the last few years.
In the last six Atlanta races, Allgaier has three DNFs, four results of 28th or worse, and just a 7th finish in the summer of 2022 as his best result over that span. I would avoid the reigning Xfinity Series champ this weekend.
Bennett Transportation and Logistics 250 Betting Value
Harrison Burton (+2000) returned to Xfinity as a full-time driver for the first time in three years. And, the #25 car finished 6th overall. He was a sleeper pick of mine last weekend and someone I pegged to compete for a Top 5 finish. Of all the Xfinity drivers, I was rooting for Burton the most.
I think the kid as a chance to compete for a checkered flag again this weekend. He has a 10.7 average finish in three Atlanta races for Xfinity. His first two appearances were both in the spring, where he scored a 4.0 average finish. Watch out for Burton on Saturday.
Bennett Transportation and Logistics 250 Predictions
You would have to be out of your mind not to pick Austin Hill to win this race on Saturday. Yes, I picked him to win in Daytona last weekend, and he was well on his way to accomplishing that feat before his engine failed. Hill was dominant up to that point.
Hill has won the last two spring Atlanta races and four of the last five events at this track. When he didn’t win this race in 2022, Hill still finished second.
RCR is dialed in with the longer speedways as both Hill and Love proved it last weekend. I expect them to both prove it this weekend as well. With that said, Hill’s odds of +300 still offer plenty of value despite being the large favorite.
Bet: Austin Hill (+300)
Bennett Transportation and Logistics 250 Top 5 Finish
- Austin Hill (-210)
- Jesse Love (+100)
- Aric Almirola (+120)
- Justin Allgaier (+160)
- Sheldon Creed (+200)
- Connor Zilisch (+250)
- Sam Mayer (+260)
- Nicholas Sanchez (+325)
It would be very easy to pick Hill as my Top 5 best bet as well. However, I’m going to take his teammate instead. The reigning Xfinity Rookie of the Year has proven to be highly skilled at these speedways.
Love has a 9.0 average finish in Atlanta. He finished 12th in this race last year after leading most of the race (157 of 163 laps). Unfortunately, Love’s car faded in the final laps and his teammate Hill won.
This weekend, I expect Love to be a contender and his +100 odds offer juicy value for a driver that “loves’ these speedways. Yes, pun is intended.
Bet: Jesse Love (+100)
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Picks This Week
- Race: Fr8 208
- Race #: 2nd of the season
- Date: February 22, 2025
- Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
Last weekend’s Fresh From Florida 250 was a fun truck race to watch unfold. However, it was also an emotional ending to the start of Daytona weekend.
Parker Kligerman held off the field to win the race, just to get disqualified in a post-race inspection which meant that 2nd place driver Corey Heim was given the victory.
I was thrilled because I picked Heim to win the race:
“Last year, Heim knocked on the door of greatness as he finished second in the Truck Series Championship. He also finished 2nd at Daytona behind Nick Sanchez. This year, Heim finally picks up his first Daytona truck win and possibly even the 2025 Craftsman Truck Series Championship.”
This weekend, Heim is the second odds-on favorite to win the Fr8 208 event. Future HOF driver Kyle Busch is the overwhelming favorite to win the Craftsman Truck race on Saturday afternoon.
Fr8 208 Predictions
- Kyle Busch (+250)
- Corey Heim (+800)
- Ty Majeski (+900)
- Grant Enfinger (+1000)
- Chandler Smith (+1000)
- Daniel Hemric (+1100)
- Ben Rhodes (+1200)
- Michael McDowell (+1200)
- Layne Riggs (+1400)
If it weren’t for Kyle Busch racing this weekend in the Truck series, we could be looking at a battle between Heim, Enfinger and Majeski for the checkered flag.
Corey Heim has one win, two Top 5s, and two Top 10s in three Atlanta appearances. He has a respectable 12.7 average finish that is lowered by a crash in this 2023 race. He won in 2022 and was 3rd last year.
Grant Enfinger has a win, three Top 5s, five Top 10s and a 10.3 average finish in nine Atlanta starts. He won this race in 2020 and has led laps in three of the last five Atlanta truck races.
The defending Truck Series champ Ty Majeski has two Top 5s and two Top 10s in four Atlanta starts. He boasts of an 8.8 average finish and was runner-up in this race last year. Majeski also finished third at Daytona last weekend is poised for another Championship-caliber season.
Unfortunately, this trio of drivers and the rest of the field, is going up against the best truck driver in all of Atlanta – Kyle Busch.
In 14 starts, Busch has seven wins, 10 Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and a 6.4 average finish. He’s won three of his last four Atlanta truck races, which includes last year. Busch didn’t compete in this race for 2022 and 2023. But he did win in 2021.
What’s almost as impressive as the seven wins, is his 10 Top 3 finishes in this race. Busch is the man to beat on Saturday and the man to bet on as well.
Bet: Kyle Busch (+250)
Fr8 208 Top 5 Finish
- Kyle Busch (-275)
- Corey Heim (+150)
- Ty Majeski (+160)
- Grant Enfinger (+180)
- Chandler Smith (+180)
- Daniel Hemric (+200)
- Ben Rhodes (+220)
- Michael McDowell (+220)
- Layne Riggs (+250)
Busch is easily the pick for this bet with 10 Top 5s in 14 Atlanta truck races, which is a staggering 71.4% Top 5 finishing rate. He’s also won half of his appearances.
However, since we’re taking him to win the race, let’s go with another driver for this prop bet. I’m looking at you Ben Rhodes.
The #99 truck started on the pole at Daytona last Friday, but ended up 20th after fading in the final portions of the race.
I believe he will bounce back this weekend with a strong performance. In nine Atlanta starts, Rhodes has five Top 5s, seven Top 10s, an 8.8 average finish and zero DNFs.
He’s posted a 55.6% Top 5 finishing rate with two in the last three Atlanta races. He was runner up in 2022 and 5th in 2023. I’m taking Rhodes as my Top 5 bet, but you can go with Busch if you want a safer play.
Bet: Ben Rhodes (+220)
