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NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge
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For the second time this season, NASCAR returns to the great state of Florida for some oval action. This weekend, all three of the sport’s top circuits will head to Homestead-Miami Speedway for three days of racing.
Not only are things heating up on the tracks, but the drivers in all three of the top series are already looking in mid-season form. The racing is extremely competitive, the intensity is high, and the action is entertaining.
The Craftsman Truck Series will kick off the weekend in Miami with the Baptist Health 200 on Friday, March 21. The race will begin at 8pm ET and can be seen on FOX.
Next up is the Xfinity Series with their Hard Rock Bet 300 on Saturday, March 22. You can watch this race in its entirety on The CW beginning at 4pm ET.
Last, but not least, the Cup Series will close out the weekend on Sunday, March 23, with the Straight Talk Wireless 400. The race begins at 3pm ET and will be televised on FS1.
Without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week.
NASCAR Picks Today
| NASCAR Bets | Favorites | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Top Chevrolet Driver at Miami | Kyle Larson (+115) | William Byron (+275) |
| Top Ford Driver at Miami | Ryan Blaney (-180) | Joey Logano (+500) |
| Top Toyota Driver at Miami | Tyler Reddick (+100) | Christopher Bell (+250) |
| Hard Rock Bet 300 Winner | Kyle Larson (+120)) | Kyle Larson (+120) |
| Baptist Health 200 Winner | Kyle Larson (+120) | Kyle Larson (+120) |
NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week
- Race: Straight Talk Wireless 400
- Race #: 6th of the season
- Date: March 23
- Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
After William Byron and Christopher Bell stomped the field over the first four races, Josh Berry upset the status quo by pulling off a shocker to win in Las Vegas last weekend.
Even with that upset, Byron and Bell sit on top of the driver standings, lead in all major statistical categories, and are two of the favorites to win in Miami on Sunday. Additionally, they both remain real contenders for the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.
Will we see another Cup Series upset or will one of the favorites return to victory lane this weekend?
Top Chevrolet Driver at Miami
- Kyle Larson (+115)
- William Byron (+275)
- Chase Elliott (+700)
- Ross Chastain (+900)
- Kyle Busch (+1200)
- Alex Bowman (+1200)
Once again, Hendrick Motorsports dominates this NASCAR prop bet as all four of their drivers are listed at the top of the odds boards including the first three spots.
Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott have never won at this track. So, I don’t see either driver picking up his first win this season or at Miami. I also don’t see either driver finishing as the top Chevy car.
You can toss out Ross Chastain who has a 25.2 average finish at this track. Additionally, let’s fade Kyle Busch as well. I think he can be a Top 10 car, but not the top Chevy driver.
In reality, this prop bet should come down to teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron. However, with the way that these two men have been racing this season, you have to give the edge to Byron as he sits on top of the driver standings, is tied or leading in Top 5s, Top 10s, average finish and won at Daytona already. Larson has yet to contend for a checkered flag.
Byron’s season and betting value are two big reasons why you should take the #24 car to win this prop bet on Sunday.
Bet: William Byron (+275)
Top Ford Driver at Miami
- Ryan Blaney (-180)
- Joey Logano (+500)
- Chris Buescher (+1000)
- Josh Berry (+1000)
- Austin Cindric (+1000)
- Brad Keselowski (+1400)
Ryan Blaney is a large favorite for this NASCAR prop bet, but it’s rather surprising considering he has a 15.3 average finish and just three Top 10s in 10 appearances. Yes, he’s been runner up the last two years. However, I don’t see Blaney being the top Ford on Sunday.
Chris Buescher has never even cracked the Top 10 in nine Cup Series races at Miami. Neither has Josh Berry or Austin Cindric. I don’t see lightning striking the same spot twice with Berry winning this race or finishing as the best Ford driver.
Brad Keselowski has seven Top 10 results in 17 appearances, but he’s in a slump to start the season. It’s been one poor result after another for the #6 car.
Joey Logano is my choice for this prop bet. Out of all the Ford drivers listed above, Logano is the only one to have won at this track. Additionally, he has seven Top 10s. I see Logano bouncing back on the season to threaten a Top 5 finish in the race and be the best Ford car.
Bet: Joey Logano (+500)
Top Toyota Driver at Miami
- Tyler Reddick (+100)
- Christopher Bell (+250)
- Denny Hamlin (+400)
- Chase Briscoe (+1000)
- Bubba Wallace (+1400)
- Ty Gibbs (+2000)
Tyler Reddick is the defending race winner and sits second among the field with a 9.0 average finish at Miami. Additionally, he has four Top 5s in five appearances. His numbers are staggering. Unfortunately, he’s been a subpar driver this season at times. And, I see his odds being overvalued here.
Denny Hamlin is tied with Busch for the most starts (20) at Miami, but he’s been dreadful on the season to date. Although he and Reddick are capable of winning this race, I think there’s a better option for this prop.
And, no, Chase Briscoe is not the “better option” this weekend. He has a 20.8 average finish at this track and zero Top 10s. You can also fade Bubba Wallace and his 19.0 average finish, along with Ty Gibbs and his 21.7 average finish.
I like Christopher Bell to finish as the best Toyota driver on Sunday. He’s certainly been the best Toyota driver on the season with three wins. Additionally, he’s won at Miami before and has the best average finish (8.8) among full-time Cup drivers.
Plus, his +250 odds offer far better value than Reddick who is second to Bell in average finish.
Bet: Christopher Bell (+250)
NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week
- Race: Hard Rock Bet 300
- Race #: 6th of the season
- Date: March 22
- Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
And, the trend continues as the Xfinity Series has seen five different winners over the first five races of the season. Last weekend, the defending Xfinity Series Champ, Justin Allgaier, was able to pull away late and hold off the competition to pick up his first victory of the season.
Even with full-time Cup Series drivers coming down to race on Saturdays, the top stars of the Xfinity Series are holding their own.
This is clearly evident as four of the first five winners are all driving for Xfinity full time. Even Aric Almirola, who won two weeks ago, will drive in more Xfinity than Cup Series races this year.
Will we get a sixth different driver to win on Saturday or will we finally see a repeat winner for the first time this season?
Hard Rock Bet 300 Odds
- Kyle Larson (-150)
- Sheldon Creed (+700)
- Justin Allgaier (+900)
- Austin Hill (+900)
- Sam Mayer (+1200)
- Jesse Love (+1500)
- Connor Zilisch (+1500)
- Carson Kvapil (+2200)
- Sammy Smith (+2800)
- Brandon Jones (+2800)
The Hard Rock Bet 300 Favorites
Kyle Larson (-150) leads the pack as a massive odds-on favorite over the rest of the field. In 11 Cup Series starts at Miami, he has one win, five Top 6s and five Top 10s. For Xfinity, he has one win, four three Top 5s and four Top 7s in four appearances. So, it’s easy to see why Larson is the betting favorite.
Sheldon Creed (+700) is sixth in the driver standings coming into this Saturday’s race with just two Top 10s in five races. His Miami experience hasn’t been much better as he has just one 5th place finish in three tries. The other two appearances resulted in a 21.5 average finish.
Justin Allgaier (+900) won last weekend in Las Vegas and now has three Top 5 finishes in the last four races. He’s picked up where he left off from last year. Unfortunately, Allgaier has yet to win at Miami in 16 tries. A 16.6 average finish, with just four Top 10s, is enough for me to fade Allgaier as a potential winner.
Austin Hill (+900) sits 4th in the standings and could be higher if he didn’t suffer two DNFs in five races. With that said, Hil does have three Top 4s and a win in the other three races on the season. He won in Atlanta and was fourth in Las Vegas, which are two tracks similar to Miami.
Best Hard Rock Bet 300 Betting Value
Sam Mayer (+1200) has yet to win on the season but he certainly is racing at a high level. In fact, he has three Top 5s and four Top 10s in five races. Furthermore, he has the 2nd best average finish (10.6) among full-time Xfinity drivers.
Mayer’s Miami numbers have been just as solid. Mayer won this race in 2023. He has three Top 9 finishes in his three Miami appearances and a 5.0 average finish. At +1200, Mayer’s odds are fantastic value.
Connor Zilisch (+1500) sits 14th in the driver standings. However, that’s due to two DNFs over the first two weeks. Since then, he has a win and an 8.6 average finish over the last three weeks. He’s also led laps in the last three Xfinity races.
Zilisch competed in four Xfinity races last year. One of them was Homestead where he finished 12th. With that experience, I think we see a strong performance from Zilisch this weekend.
Hard Rock Bet 300 Longshot
Brandon Jones (+2800) is a very appealing longshot for this Saturday’s race. He currently sits 20th in the standings after opening the season with three subpar performances. Two o those were finishes of 30th or worse. However, he has two Top 6 finishes over the last two weeks with both coming at tracks similar to Homestead-Miami.
Furthermore, in 10 Miami starts, Jones has two Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 9.9 average finish. Those are strong numbers for a guy who’s often flying under the radar on a weekly basis. With a little luck, this longshot could pay off.
Hard Rock Bet 300 Predictions
Kyle Larson is not only competing in the Xfinity race on Saturday, but he’s also going to race in the Truck race on Friday along with his usual running in the Cup Series. Larson loves the track and really wanted to compete in all three series:
“It was kind of my idea to run triple-duty at Homestead. Obviously would love to win at least one of them and to win all three would be pretty neat as well.”
I wouldn’t be surprised if Larson wins at least one of these three races. In fact, it would not be a stretch to think that he could win both the Truck and Xfinity races.
Larson will be in a Hendrick Motorsports car for this race. And, honestly, he should dominate since the car is from his Cup Series team.
The two drivers that I think can compete with Larson on Saturday are Mayer and Hill. As mentioned above, Mayer won this race in 2023. However, it’s Hill that is the defending race winner.
Either one of those two drivers offer far better value than Larson. Unfortunately, unless Larson has car troubles or gets wrecked, he should win this race. He’s a level above Hill and Mayer at this point in time. Although, I do think Mayer has a bright future ahead of him and that Hill is one of the top Xfinity drivers.
Bet: Kyle Larson (-150)
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Picks This Week
- Race: Baptist Health 200
- Race #: 4th of the season
- Date: March 21
- Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
The Craftsman Truck Series was lucky to finish their race last weekend due to rain in the Las Vegas area. Yet, once the action was underway, it was a tight race until the very end.
For the second time in the first three races, Corey Heim took the checkered flag. He was able to hold off the pack to capture a victory without the benefit of another driver being disqualified.
With two early wins, Heim has shot up to the top of the betting boards as the man to beat for the Craftsman Trucks Series championship.
Will Heim continue his early-season winning ways? With two Cup Series drivers competing in this race, will we see another Cup ringer win like Busch did?
Baptist Health 200 Odds
- Kyle Larson (-130)
- Corey Heim (+500)
- Ross Chastain (+1000)
- Chandler Smith (+1100)
- Grant Enfinger (+1200)
- Ty Majeski (+1400)
- Layne Riggs (+1500)
- Kaden Honeycutt (+2500)
- Brandon Jones (+2800)
- Daniel Hemric (+2800)
- Rajah Caruth (+3300)
- Tyler Ankrum (+3300)
- Ben Rhodes (+5000)
Baptist Health 200 Favorites
Kyle Larson (-130) is the odds-on favorite in all three races this weekend. However, the last time he raced in the Truck Series was in 2023. Yet, he won that race at North Wilkesboro. In fact, in 15 career Truck races, he has three wins, eight Top 5s, and 11 Top 10s with a 9.7 average finish.
At Miami, Larson has three Truck appearances. His first start came in 2021, where he crashed out after leading 48 laps. He then ended up 2nd in 2014, and 4th in 2026. Larson loves Homestead and has won races in the other two series at this venue.
Corey Heim (+500) might be second in the driver standings, but he’s been the best full-time Truck driver over the first month of the season. Heim has two wins in three races and is a strong driver at Miami.
In three starts at this speedway, Heim has three Top 5s. He was 4th last year, third in 2023, and 5th in 2022. That 4.0 average finish certainly makes him a legitimate contender for the checkered flag.
Ross Chastain (+1000) is also coming down from the Cup Series to compete in this truck race on Friday. However, unlike Larson, Chastain has never won at Miami. In seven Xfinity starts, he has just one Top 5 which was a third place in 2020.
In seven Truck starts, he has two Top 5s with a third in 2020 as well. In fact, he has two Top 4 finishes in his last two truck races at this venue. He’s certainly capable of a solid performance. However, of the favorites, I like Larson and Heim better this weekend.
Baptist Health 200 Betting Value
Grant Enfinger (+1200) sits third in the driver standings with two Top 5s and three Top 10s in three races so far this season. He’s the defending race winner having taken the checkered flag in this event last season.
He also has three Top 5s, five Top 10s, and a 9.5 average finish in eight starts at Miami. I like his odds much more than I do Heim or Chastain. There’s plenty of betting value with Enfinger this week.
Ty Majeski (+1400) also offers a great deal of betting value as well. He is the defending Truck Series champion and currently sits on top of the driver standings. Like Enfinger, he also has two Top 5s and three Top 10s in three races this season. Majeski leads the pack in average finish (5.0) as well.
But the good news doesn’t stop there with the reigning champ. Majeski has one win, two Top 5s, and four Top 10s in four Miami truck races. He won this event in 2022, and was second last year. Majeski also has a staggering 5.5 average finish at this track.
Baptist Health 200 Longshot
Rajah Caruth (+3300) is my longshot choice this weekend. Caruth has two 8th place finishes in his only Miami truck races. These are solid results for a driver coming in at +3300 odds.
Baptist Health 200 Predictions
I think this race will be more competitive than the odds suggest. Larson, Heim, Enfinger and Majeski are all capable of winning. Enfinger and Majeski have won two of the last three truck races at Miami.
Heim has yet to win at this venue, but he’s the hottest driver in the Truck Series right now. Heim has two wins in three truck races and three Top 5s in his only Miami truck appearances.
With that said, I am taking Kyle Larson to win this race. He’s a far better driver than any of these other contenders. Furthermore, the guy has eight Top 5s in 15 truck races with three wins. His last truck appearance was two years ago and he won.
Larson is going to win at least one race this weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the Truck and Xfinity races. His Truck odds are slightly better than his Xfinity odds.
If you rather go with a full-time Truck Series driver, then take either Enfinger or Majeski. Both are very capable of winning. I would give Majeski the slight edge due to his consistency this season compared to Enfinger.
Bet: Kyle Larson (-130)
