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NASCAR Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge
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For the first time this season, NASCAR’s top circuits will head to Bristol Motor Speedway for some short track racing. Also referred to as “Thunder Valley,” Bristol has been on the NASCAR calendar since 1961 with two annual races.
The Craftsman Truck Series returns to action after having last weekend off. The truck race will start the Bristol festivities with the Weather Guard Truck Race on Friday, April 11. The race will begin at 7:30pm ET and can be seen on FS1.
The Xfinity Series will be up next with their SciAps 300 on Saturday, April 12. You can watch this race in its entirety on The CW beginning at 5pm ET.
Last, but not least, the Cup Series will close out the weekend on Sunday, April 13, with the Food City 400. This race begins at 3pm ET and will be televised on FS1.
Without any further delay, pull those seatbelts down tight and strap in as we take a look at some of our best NASCAR picks this week.
NASCAR Picks Today
| NASCAR Bets | Favorites | Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Top Chevrolet Driver at Bristol | Kyle Larson (+115) | Kyle Larson (+115) |
| Top Ford Driver at Bristol | Ryan Blaney (+145) | Chris Buescher (+500) |
| Top Toyota Driver at Bristol | Denny Hamlin (+140) | Denny Hamlin (+140) |
| SciAps 300 Winner | Kyle Larson (-150) | Kyle Larson (-150) |
| Weather Guard Truck Race Winner | Kyle Larson (-135) | Kyle Larson (-135) |
| Weather Guard Truck Race Top 5 | Kyle Larson (-1000) | Corey Heim (-140) |
NASCAR Cup Series Picks This Week
- Race: Food City 500
- Race #: 9th of the season
- Date: April 13
- Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
The Cup Series has a new sheriff in town and his name is Denny Hamlin. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has now won two races in a row and is one of the favorites to win at Bristol this weekend. Furthermore, Hamlin won the Food City 400 last year and has four career-wins at Bristol.
After two straight checkered flags, Hamlin has cemented himself as one of the odds-on favorites to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship along with Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell.
Will we see another Cup Series Championship contender pick up the victory this weekend at Bristol or will we get a new winner on the season, this Sunday?
Top Chevrolet Driver at Bristol
- Kyle Larson (+115)
- Chase Elliott (+300)
- William Byron (+475)
- Ross Chastain (+850)
- Alex Bowman (+900)
- Kyle Busch (+1000)
The Hendrick Motorsports trio of Larson, Elliott and Byron lead the Chevy pack for this prop bet. However, of all these drivers, Kyle Busch has more wins than the rest of them combined.
Busch has eight wins, 14 Top 5s, and 19 Top 10s. He also has a 14.5 average finish at BMS. Unfortunately, he’s yet to win a race this season and I don’t see it happening this weekend.
You can also rule out Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman as well. Bowman has just five Top 10s in 15 appearances, while Chastain has a 20.9 average finish.
William Byron is well behind his teammates of Larson and Elliott. Despite his hot season so far, I doubt Byron ends up being the top Chevy this Sunday. The #24 car has just four Top 10s and a 17.4 average finish in 11 starts.
Of Cup Series drivers, the two cars with the best average finishes are Kyle Larson (11.0) and Chase Elliott (11.0). However, Larson has two wins and Elliott has zero. Additionally, Larson has 900 more laps led, two more Top 5s and three more Top 10s in just two more appearances.
Elliott has four consecutive Top 8 finishes, while Larson five consecutive Top 5 finishes including two wins. Take Larson to bounce back from last weekend.
Bet: Kyle Larson (+115)
Top Ford Driver at Bristol
- Ryan Blaney (+145)
- Ryan Preece (+500)
- Chris Buescher (+500)
- Joey Logano (+650)
- Brad Keselowski (+650)
- Josh Berry (+750)
Josh Berry has two Cup Series appearances at Bristol and has a 20.5 average finish. I would fade him this weekend. With the way that Joey Logano is racing in 2025, I would also skip the #22 car this Sunday as well. Not to mention, he has four consecutive finishes of 22nd or worse at Bristol with two DNFs.
Keeping with that theme, skip Brad Keselowski this weekend despite his body of work at Bristol. Keselowski is 31st in the driver standings and has been abysmal over the first two months.
Don’t fall for the two Ryans either. Ryan Preece is the second odds-on favorite for this prop bet, but he has just two Top 10s in eight starts with a seventh as his best result.
Ryan Blaney is highly overvalued here. In 16 starts, Blaney has just two Top 5s, six Top 10s and an 18.6 average finish. For every Top 10 finish he’s had in the last seven Bristol races, Blaney’s also had finishes of 30th or worse.
For the first time this season, I’m taking Chris Buescher as my Top Ford driver. In 16 starts, he has one win, three Top 5s, five Top 10s and an 18.2 average finish. And, though these numbers won’t blow you away, Buescher’s had a solid run over the last few years.
He won in 2022’s night race, has three Top 7s in the last four races, and has a 6.5 average finish over his last four appearances.
Bet: Chris Buescher (+500)
Top Toyota Driver at Bristol
- Denny Hamlin (+140)
- Christopher Bell (+140)
- Chase Briscoe (+800)
- Ty Gibbs (+800)
- Bubba Wallace (+1000)
- Tyler Reddick (+1500)
Tyler Reddick is slumping this season. He’s nowhere near his success from last year and has just one Top 5 in seven appearances at Bristol. Bubba Wallace is slightly better with two Top 10s in 11 starts and a 19.2 average finish. But you can skip those two along with Ty Gibbs as well.
Like with Hendrick for Chevy, Joe Gibbs Racing dominates this prop bet with a trio of drivers in Briscoe, Bell and Hamlin.
Although Chase Briscoe has a 15.0 average finish, he has just one Top 10 in five starts. I would put him at a distance third behind his two teammates.
Like Elliott and Larson sitting at the top of the pecking order for average finish, Bell and Hamlin sit third and fourth respectively.
Christopher Bell has five Top 10s, three Top 5s, and a 12.6 average finish in seven starts. Denny Hamlin has four Bristol wins which includes taking the checkered flag in this race last year. He also has 12 Top 5s, 19 Top 10s and a 13.3 average finish.
In Bell’s seven starts, he’s finished higher than Hamlin in two of them. I’m going with the hot driver in Denny Hamlin who has won two consecutive NASCAR races this season.
Bet: Denny Hamlin (+140)
NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks This Week
- Race: SciAps 300
- Race #: 9th of the season
- Date: April 12
- Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
Last weekend at Darlington, the Xfinity Series finally got its first surprise win of the season as Brandon Jones pulled off the surprising upset victory. Despite other cars looking strong like Justin Allgaier, Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain, Jones was able to hold off the pack.
However, just because Jones picked up his first victory in a long time, I wouldn’t rush to bet on his Xfinity Series Championship odds. Allgaier and Austin Hill are still the two favorites in my opinion.
With that said, those two drivers are the only Xfinity full-time competitors to have multiple wins on the season.
Will one of these two men return to victory lane? Will there be another repeat winner on the season? Or will we get a fresh face in the winner’s circle like last weekend?
SciAps 300 Odds
- Kyle Larson (-150)
- Justin Allgaier (+350)
- Sam Mayer (+900)
- Brandon Jones (+1200)
- Sheldon Creed (+1400)
- Jesse Love (+1600)
- Connor Zilisch (+1600)
- Austin Hill (+2000)
- Carson Kvapil (+2500)
- Sammy Smith (+2500)
- Taylor Gray (+2800)
- Christian Eckes (+3500)
SciAps 300 Favorites
Kyle Larson (-150) has been dominant at Bristol in his Cup and Xfinity career. For Cup, he leads all drivers in average finish and also has two wins.
In his Xfinity career, Larson has nine Bristol starts with one win, seven Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 5.7 average finish. Larson has been nothing short of dominant at this track. In fact, he won his last Xfinity race here (2018), and has six Top 3 finishes.
Justin Allgaier (+350) leads the Xfinity field in the driver standings with two wins, six Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 7.8 average finish. He’s also been very impressive at Bristol as well.
In 24 Bristol starts, Allgaier has two wins, 11 Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, and an 11.7 average finish. He last won at Bristol in 2023, and has four top 10s in the last five races.
Sam Mayer (+900) sits second in the driver standings with five Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 9.3 average finish in eight starts. In four Bristol starts, he has one Top 5 and three Top 10s. I don’t see Mayer winning, but another Top 10 finish is more than likely.
SciAps 300 Betting Value
Brandon Jones (+1200) won last weekend and has shot up the odds-boards this week. In 15 Bristol starts, he has three Top 5s, seven Top 10s, and a 12.7 average finish. All strong numbers for Jones.
Sheldon Creed (+1400) has one Top 5 in three Bristol starts. At +1400 odds, there’s some value with Creed.
Jesse Love (+1600) has one Xfinity appearance on his resume and he finished 4th in that race. Love has looked strong this year and could provide some decent value this weekend.
Austin Hill (+2000) in in a similar boat with Creed as he also has one Top 5 in three Bristol appearances. However, Hill does have two wins this year, which means he can easily find himself in victory lane if the favorites run into issues or each other.
Christian Eckes (+3500) is making his first Xfinity appearance at Bristol. But he does have five Truck starts at this venue with one win, three Top 5s, four Top 10s, five Top 10s, and a staggering 5.4 average finish. I love the value that Eckes provides considering his experience at this track.
SciAps 300 Longshot
Harrison Burton (+10000) is my longshot bet for Saturday’s Bristol race. In four Xfinity BMS starts, he has two Top 5s, four Top 10s and a 6.3 average finish. On the season, Burton sits 10th overall with three Top 10s in eight races and a few dozen laps led.
For a driver with these massive odds, the success he’s had at Bristol combined with a decent run in 2025 so far, makes Burton worthy of a small flier.
SciAps 300 Predictions
Like with Homestead-Miami, it appears that Kyle Larson will race all three circuits at Bristol this weekend. He’s favored to win all three of them. For Xfinity and Truck Series, Larson is a sizable favorite. For Cup Series, he’s tied with Hamlin as the overall race favorite.
In other words, this entire race comes down to whether or not someone can beat Larson on Saturday evening. In my opinion, only Allgaier has a chance.
With that said, Larson’s overall body of work across the top two circuits at Bristol is absolutely impressive. Take the Cup Series ringer to win this race on Saturday and avenge losing the Xfinity race at Miami a few weeks ago.
Bet: Kyle Larson (-150)
NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Picks This Week
- Race: Weather Guard Truck Race
- Race #: 6th of the season
- Date: April 11
- Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
Last week, the Craftsman Truck Series didn’t compete at Darlington Raceway like the Xfinity and Cup Series circuits did. They return this weekend for some intense short-track racing.
When we last saw the trucks, it was Daniel Hemric pulling off a surprise win in the Boys and Girls Club of Blue Ridge 200 at Martinsville two weeks ago.
Hemric became the 4th different winner of the season to date. Currently, only Corey Heim has won multiple races. Furthermore, Cup Series drivers Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson have won two of the five Truck races this season to date.
With that in mind, drivers like Corey Heim, Ty Majeski, Grant Enfinger and others will definitely look to prevent the Cup Series ringers like Kyle Larson from picking up a third win in six truck races.
Weather Guard Truck Race Odds
- Kyle Larson (-135)
- Corey Heim (+550)
- Layne Riggs (+600)
- Chandler Smith (+900)
- Ty Majeski (+1000)
- Daniel Hemric (+2000)
- Grant Enfinger (+2200)
- Rajah Caruth (+2500)
- Brandon Jones (+2500)
- Tyler Ankrum (+2800)
- Kaden Honeycutt (+3000)
- Ben Rhodes (+5000)
Weather Guard Truck Race Favorites
Kyle Larson (-135) has yet to race on the Bristol concrete track in a Truck event. He did race the dirt track at Bristol a few years back and crashed out. However, in his two truck races over the last two years, Larson has won both.
Let’s not forget that Larson set out to race all three Miami events last month. He won the Truck race on Friday night, finished 4th in the Xfinity event on Saturday, and then won the Cup event on Sunday.
Corey Heim (+550) remains at the top of the Truck standings with two wins, three Top 5s, and four Top 10s in five starts. He has almost as impressive of a Bristol resume as well. In four Bristol Truck starts, Heim has one win, two Top 5s, four Top 10s and a 4.8 average finish.
Layne Riggs (+600) sits 8th in the driver standings, but has a 5.5 average finish in his two Bristol Truck races. He was 10th in this race last year and won the fall race. Heim finished second, but Larson was not in tht race.
Weather Guard Truck Race Betting Value
Chandler Smith (+900) has an excellent Bristol resume with one win, three Top 5s, and four Top 10s in four appearances for the Truck Series. He also sits third in the standings with five Top 10 finishes in all five races so far.
Ty Majeski (+1000) sits second in the Truck driver standings and has one win, one Top 5, and two Top 10s in four Bristol starts. I like his chances to crack the Top 10 and possibly Top 5, but I’m fading Majeski this weekend as he finished with a 21.0 average finish in two Bristol races last year.
Daniel Hemric (+2000) doesn’t have the Truck experience that other drivers do, but he does have three Top 5s, six Top 10s, and a 9.6 average finish in eight Xfinity Bristol starts. And, let’s not forget that he’s coming off a win at Martinsville two weeks ago.
Grant Enfinger (+2200) has yet to win at Bristol in the Truck Series, but he does have a strong resume. In nine starts, Enfinger has five Top 5s, eight Top 10s, and a 6.7 average finish.
Weather Guard Truck Race Longshot
Brandon Jones (+2500) has one truck race this year and he finished 12th at Miami. In five Bristol starts for the Truck Series, Jones has one Top 5 and three Top 10s. For Xfinity Bristol starts, he has three Top 5s, seven Top 10s, along with five Top 8 finishes in the last six Xfinity races at this venue.
For a longshot pick, Jones has solid numbers at Bristol and could be worthy of a small flier.
Weather Guard Truck Race Predictions
Just like with the Xfinity race, where Allgaier is the only real threat to upset Larson, Heim is the only real threat to beat out Larson this weekend.
With that said, you can’t look past Larson to win this race. He’s dominated at the Xfinity and Cup levels for Bristol races and I’m sure he will do the same this weekend. Larson won his lone Truck appearance this season, his lone appearance last season, and will most likely win at least one of the three Bristol NASCAR races this weekend.
Considering the Trucks have less overall talent than the other two Series, I’m taking Larson to win this. And, at -135 odds, that’s still great value.
Bet: Kyle Larson (-135)
Weather Guard Truck Race Top 5 Finish
Chandler Smith (+100) and Ty Majeski (+110) are two drivers I like to crack the Top 5. However, I am leaning towards Corey Heim (-140) as my Top 5 pick this weekend.
Heim is the best full-time Truck Series driver this year with two wins in five races and sitting on top of the standings. Additionally, he has one win, two Top 5s, and a 4.8 average finish in his four Bristol Truck appearances.
To get this kind of value for the best driver not named Larson this weekend, is a great chance at picking up some winnings.
Bet: Corey Heim (-140)
