2024 NASCAR Cook Out 400 Odds, Predictions and Race Winner

On Sunday, August 11, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Richmond Raceway for The Cook Out 400. It’s the second of two trips to this venue, with the first coming in March under the Toyota Owners 400 banner. This weekend’s event marks the 23^rd race of the 2024 Cup Series Season. It’s also the first race in three weeks as NASCAR took time off for the Olympics.

Including this event, there are four races left before the Cup Series Playoffs begin and the 16 qualified drivers compete for the Cup Series Championship.

For those who might have forgotten, the most recent race winner was Kyle Larson in the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 21. Prior to that, Ryan Blaney won at Pocono Raceway on July 14.

Larson is one of the odds-on favorites for this weekend’s Cook Out 400. He joins Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr., and Denny Hamlin as pre-race favorites to win this Sunday’s Richmond event.

Let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR Cook Out 400 odds and make our Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s Richmond Raceway event.

Cook Out 400 Race Profile

Richmond Raceway has been an annual staple of NASCAR’s Cup Series since the late 1950s. This is one of the most beloved tracks for fans of the sport and drivers alike. In 1991, this Richmond race was moved from the afternoon to the evening. At the time, this race became just the second night event on the calendar.

Richmond Raceway is a classic short-track, that’s D-shaped, and a lap distance of 0.75 miles. The bankings reach up to 14 degrees in the turns, with 8 degrees on the frontstretch and 2 degrees on the backstretch.

Sunday’s Cook Out 400 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 300 miles
• Total Laps: 400 laps
• Stage 1: 80 laps
• Stage 2: 155 laps
• Final Stage: 165 laps

The Cook Out 400 is set to begin at 6pm ET and will air live on USA Network.

Previous Cook Out 400 Winners

This race has taken on many names over its 66-year existence. From the Richmond 200 to the Capital City 300-500, and from the Federated Auto Parts 400 to the Cook Out 400, this race has always been an integral part of NASCAR’s Cup Series history. The following is a list of recent winners for the fall Richmond race:

• 2023: Chris Buescher
• 2022: Kevin Harvick
• 2021: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2020: Brad Keselowski
• 2019: Martin Truex Jr.
• 2018: Kyle Busch
• 2017: Kyle Larson
• 2016: Denny Hamlin

Richard Petty holds the record with seven wins in the fall Richmond race. Of active drivers, Denny Hamlin has the most wins with three.

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Odds
The following NASCAR Cup Series Brickyard 400 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Favorites

The following drivers are considered by oddsmakers to be the odds-on favorites to win the Cook Out 400:

Christopher Bell +450

• Standings: 8
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 12          

Christopher Bell enters this week’s race sitting eighth in the driver standings but fourth in the Playoff Standings due to his three wins on the year. He reached as high as sixth in the standings five races ago, but crashed in Nashville and Chicago in consecutive weeks. Those crashes dropped him to his current position.

Fortunately, the #20 car has bounced back over the last two races. He was 12^th at Pocono and finished 4^th at Indianapolis a few weeks ago. That was his sixth Top 10 finish in the last nine races and fourth Top 5 result over that span.

At Richmond, Bell has performed really well despite having not won a race as of yet. In eight starts, he’s scored four Top 5s and six top 10s. His 7.5 average finish is third best among the field. He’s had six Top 6 finishes in the last seven races.

Earlier this year, Bell was 6^th in the spring Richmond race. He was 20^th in this race last year. Prior to that, he was 3^rd in 2021 and 2^nd in 2022 for this fall Richmond event.

Bell will be a contender this weekend for the checkered flag. I expect a Top 5 result and a serious run at the race win.

Martin Truex Jr. +500

• Standings: 7
• Win: 0
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 9

Martin Truex Jr. enters this weekend’s race in seventh place for the driver standings and 13^th in the Playoff Standings. He’s just 108 points above the cutoff line. That’s not a lot of wiggle room for the former Cup Series champ. A few DNFs or poor finishes could make August a very hot month for the #19 car on and off the track.

Truex has not won this season as of yet. Fortunately, Richmond is a track where the veteran driver has had success at in his career.

In 36 Richmond starts, Truex has three wins, 10 Top 5s, 18 Top 10s and a 15.0 average finish. Truex has led laps in 11 of the last 13 events at this venue. He was 4^th in the spring race this year. Truex was 7^th in this race last year, 7^th in 2022, won in 2021, 2^nd in 2020, and won in 2019. In fact, he swept the Richmond races in 2019, having won both events that year.

In his last 11 Richmond races, Truex has finished 11^th or better with three wins and eight Top 5s. Despite his inconsistent racing this year, you have to like Truex to be a Top 5 car on Sunday. Will he have enough to pick up his first win of the 2024 season?

Denny Hamlin +500   

• Standings: 4
• Win: 3
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 9

Denny Hamlin has sat in the Top 4 of the standings since April. He’s spent the last three races sitting 4^th overall. Unfortunately, the #11 car has had a rough patch over the last seven events.

After winning three races and shooting up the standings, Hamlin has finished outside of the Top 20 in five of the last seven races including at Indianapolis where he ended up 32^nd after a crash. In six of those seven races, he’s finished 12^th or worse. Hamlin’s best result over this stretch was Pocono where the #11 car finished second at a track that he’s dominated at in the past.

That last sentence should bring some optimism to Hamlin fans and bettors alike, because the #11 car has been one of the best active drivers at Richmond Raceway.

In 35 starts, Hamlin has five wins, 19 Top 5s, 23 Top 10s, and an 8.3 average finish which is fourth best among the field. His Top 5s are tied with Kyle Busch for the most, while he’s second behind Busch in Top 10s. However, he also leads the Series with three Poles and is third in laps led behind Busch and Truex.

In his last 17 Richmond appearances, Hamlin has 3 wins, 12 Top 5s, and 14 Top 10s. He finished second in this race last year and won the March 2024 race at this venue. The #11 car is a serious contender for the checkered flag this Sunday. Expect him to finish in the Top 5 and possibly lead the most laps.

Kyle Larson +500

• Standings: 1
• Win: 4
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 11

As mentioned, Kyle Larson won the Brickyard 400 a few weeks ago. It marked his fourth win of the season, which leads the Cup Series. Hamlin, Bell and William Byron are all tied with three wins apiece.

Larson only led with eight laps at Indianapolis, but it was the laps that mattered the most. The win snapped a two-race streak where he finished outside of the Top 10. It also marked his second win in the last seven races.

At Richmond, Larson has found plenty of success as well. In 19 career starts, Larson has two wins, five Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and a 10.8 average finish which is tied with Chase Elliott for the 6^th best among active drivers.

Over his last eight Richmond races, Larson has one win, three Top 5s, and five Top 10s. His victory came in the 2023 spring event. However, he did win the fall Richmond race in 2017. Larson was 19^th in this race last year and 14^th in 2022. Prior to that, he had five consecutive Top 7 finishes in this race.

I expect Larson to join Hamlin, Bell and possibly Truex in the Top 5 this weekend. We’ll see if the #11 car has enough to edge them out for the win.

The Best NASCAR Cook Out 400 Betting Value

The following drivers are my picks for the best betting value in the Ally 400 based on their current season’s stats and their previous success at Nashville Superspeedway:

Joey Logano +1000

• Standings: 15
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 4
• Top 10: 7

Joey Logano currently sits 15^th in the standings. However, he’s not in any danger of missing the postseason because he won in Nashville four races ago. That victory cemented the #22 with a Playoff spot. Over the last seven races, Logano has been alternating between poor finishes and Top 6 results.

For example, Logano crashed in the Brickyard 400 and finished 34^th. Prior to that, he was 5^th in Pocono. Continuing the trend, Logano was 23^rd in Chicago three races ago and 1^st in Nashville the week prior.

At Richmond, Logano has two wins, 14 Top 5s, 19 Top 10s, and a 9.7 average finish which is 5^th best among the field. As impressive as those numbers are, Logano only has 1 DNF in 30 career starts at this track. That’s a remarkable accomplishment in of itself.

In the last eight Richmond races, Logano has seven Top 7s including five Top 5s. He was second in the spring race this year and 4^th in the fall race last year. In fact, Logano has four straight Top 6 finishes in the fall Richmond race.

At +1000 odds, you have to like the value that Logano offers especially considering his stellar success over the last four years at this track.

Brad Keselowski +1600

• Standings: 9
• Win: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 10

Brad Keselowski is having a mini-resurgence for his career. After leaving Team Penske, Keselowski hasn’t had much success until this season. Currently, he’s 9^th in the standings, but he already has one win, 7 Top 5s, and 10 Top 10s. The win and Top 5s are already tied or better than his last two years and almost as good as his 2021 season, with 14 races left.

Unfortunately, Keselowski has run into a bit of a slump over the last five races. He’s scored four finishes outside of the Top 10 and three outside of the Top 25. But don’t let that scare you away from the #6 car this weekend as Keselowski has had a strong career at Richmond.

In 29 career starts at this venue, Keselowski has two wins, six Top 5s, 15 Top 10s and a 12.0 average finish. He has 17 straight Top 15 finishes including 8^th here in the spring and 6^th in this race last year. He also led 102 laps in this 2023 race and won the 2020 fall Richmond event. Over the last six Richmond fall races, Keselowski has a 7.9 average finish.

I like for Keselowski to be a Top 10 car this weekend with a Top 3 ceiling.

The Top Cook Out 400 Longshot

Well, once again, I am backing Kyle Busch (+3000) as my longshot choice. And, there are Pros and Cons to this selection.

The cons are that Busch sits 18^th in the driver standings and 19^th in the Playoff standings. He’s 112 points below the cutoff line. Busch will most likely need a win to make it into the Playoffs. He’s also finished 25^th or worse in five of the last six races on the season, which he’s crashed out of four of those five. The #8 car is also putting up some of the worst numbers of his career.

With that said, if Busch is going to win at any track before the regular season ends, you have to think it would be at Richmond.

Among all active drivers, Busch leads the field with six wins, 19 Top 5s and 28 Top 10s. His 7.4 average finish is second best behind Josh Berry who has only two Richmond races compared to Busch with 37, which is also leading the field.

Busch was 20^th in the spring race this year and 3^rd in the fall race last year. He has 11 Top 10 finishes in the last 13 Richmond races including two wins. Additionally, he has seven straight Top 9 finishes in the Richmond fall race, which includes three Top 3s and a win.

Sure, there are drivers with larger odds to win this race. However, they realistically don’t have a shot at winning this event. Busch’s season to date, and odds, make him the largest longshot with a realistic shot at winning.

The Best Top 5 Bet for the Cook Out 400

Denny Hamlin is my choice for the best Top 5 bet this weekend. His -140 odds are just behind Bell with -150. Yet, as mentioned before, Hamlin is tied for the lead in Top 5 finishes with 19. He also has five victories, which is second most among the field.

In his last five fall Richmond races, Hamlin has a 4.6 average finish. He was second in this race last year and already won the spring race this year.  Although it’s not plus-money odds, Hamlin’s -140 line is still very appealing.

The Best Top 10 Bet for the Cook Out 400

Joey Logano (-175), Truex (-330), Hamlin (-330), and Bell (-340) are all solid Top 10 selections. However, I want better value for this bet. Busch at +150 offers great value, but I rather keep him as my longshot selection. With that said, I like Keselowski and his -130 odds to finish in the Top 10.

As mentioned above, Keselowski has 17 straight Top 15 finishes. Over that span, he also has one win, four Top 5s, and 13 Top 10s. the #6 car was 8^th in the spring Richmond race and 6^th in this race last season. He has three consecutive Top 10 results, won the 2020 fall Richmond event, and has a 12.0 average finish for his career.

I think Keselowski is a great choice for finishing in the Top 10 and has a Top 3 ceiling for Sunday’s race.

Cook Out 400 Driver H2H Matchups

For these NASCAR bets, you must pick which driver will have the better result in each head-to-head matchup:

Brad Keselowski (-115) vs. Chris Buescher (-115)

Chris Buescher has 16 career starts at Richmond with one win, two Top 5s, and three Top 10s. The reason that he’s listed with the same odds as Keselowski, is because Buescher won this race last year and finished 9^th in this season’s spring Richmond event. He was also 3^rd in the 2022 fall race.

With that said, Buescher has a 21.7 average finish. Those three results are his best finishes at this track. Outside of those results, the #17 car has 13 finishes of 15^th or worse. 11 of those are outside of the Top 20 and five are outside of the Top 30.

As seen above, Keselowski has 13 Top 10 finishes over his last 17 races. All of those appearances were 15^th or better. He also has three consecutive Top 10 results and a 12.0 average finish for his career.

I like for Keselowski to win this head-to-head matchup as I believe he has a Top 3 ceiling this weekend, whereas Buescher will be lucky to crack the Top 15.

Bet: Brad Keselowski (-115)

Joey Logano (-130) vs. Ryan Blaney (+100)

Team Penske teammates are locked in this H2H battle. And, I like Logano over the reigning Cup Series champ Ryan Blaney.

For his career, Blaney has just three Top 10 finishes in 16 career starts. He has more DNFs (1) than wins (0) at Richmond. Blaney also has a subpar 20.0 average finish at this track. The #12 car was 19^th in the spring race, 14^th last year in this event, and two more 10^th place results in the Richmond fall race.

In his last 17 races at this track, Logano has 14 Top 10 finishes. His 9.7 average finish is 5^th best among the field. And, he has 19 Top 10s for his career which is a 63.3% Top 10 finishing rate. Logano also has four straight Top 7 finishes and in seven of the last eight races at this venue.

Logano was second in the spring race, fourth in this race last year, 6^th in the 2022 fall race, 5^th in the 2021 race, and so on. He has a 5.9 average finish in his last five fall Richmond races. Take the #22 car to beat his teammate in the results this weekend. 

Bet: Joey Logano (-130)

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Predictions: Who Takes The Checkered Flag?

There are a few drivers that have a good chance at winning the Cook Out 400 on Sunday. Bell, Hamlin, Larson, Truex are four drivers that I think will finish in the Top 5 and contend for the checkered flag. I also like Keselowski and Logano to threaten for Top 5 finishes. With a little luck, they could also win this race.

One other driver that should be considered this weekend is Chase Elliott. The #9 car was 5^th in the spring race this year and has a 7.6 average finish in the fall race over his last six appearances. He’s very capable of finishing in the Top 5 this weekend, as Elliott has four of them in his last seven appearances.

I want to go with Hamlin to win this race on Sunday. However, it’s rare that drivers sweep both Richmond races and Hamlin already won this spring. In fact, he’s won two of the last five races at Richmond.

My next choice is Larson, but he just won the last race and I’m not quite sold on the #5 car picking up two in a row. He also won the 2023 spring race at this track.

With my top two choices ruled out, I’m going with Bell to win on Sunday. There’s a reason why the oddsmakers like him as the pre-race favorite. Let’s take a look at some of them.

The #20 car has the third best average finish among the field at 7.5, has four Top 5s and six Top 10s in eight starts. Last year, he had some car troubles. In 2021 and 2022, Bell finished in the Top 3 for this fall race both times. He was 6^th in the spring race this year.

Bell is one of the top drivers in the field this year and a contender for the 2024 Cup Series championship. Each week he’s one of the race favorites as well. With a handful of drivers all capable of winning on Sunday, you can’t go wrong with the #20 driver.

Bet: Christopher Bell (+450)

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR Brickyard 400 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Win: Hamlin or Larson (+230)

I have Bell as my race winner, but you can read why I didn’t go with Hamlin or Larson despite thinking both have a strong chance at winning. With that said, this is a great opportunity to hedge our bets by taking Hamlin or Lason to win.

Choosing these two drivers in this prop bet will give us the Top 3 race favorites heading into Sunday. For me, it’s a no-brainer to hedge on the three best drivers each week.

Bet: Hamlin or Larson (+230)

Winning Manufacturer

• Toyota (+110)
• Chevrolet (+220)
• Ford (+240)

Ford comes in as the longshot despite having the most wins in this Richmond race with 18. In fact, they have won the last two “fall” Richmond events. With that said, the Ford drivers will have a tough hill to climb in order to dispatch the Toyota and Chevrolet drivers. And, I just don’t see that happening this weekend. Although, anything is possible as Keselowski and Logano are credible options.

Chevy has the second most victories with 17. However, they haven’t won this latter Richmond race since 2017. Larson and Elliott are in contention for this weekend’s win and could make for a decent hedge bet with Bell as the race winner.

With that said, the safe play for this prop bet is Toyota. They have eight wins all-time, but seven of them have come since 2009. That’s roughly half of the races since then. Bell, Hamlin, Truex are all realistic options to win this event. Take Toyota for this prop.

Bet: Toyota (+110)

Winning Car Number

• Over 17.5 (-105)
• Under 17.5 (-125)

This O/U is a little tricky as there are legit contenders on both sides. In the last race, I finally got this prop bet correct with Larson winning and taking the Under 12.5. This week, I think there’s a great opportunity for a hedge.

The top Richmond contenders for Under 17.5 are: Larson (5), Keselowski (6), Busch (8), Elliott (9), Hamlin (11), Blaney (12)

The top Richmond contenders for Over 17.5 are: Truex (19), Bell (20), Logano (22), Byron (24), Reddick (45)

Since I went with Bell to win the race, I like the Under 17.5 as a great hedge opportunity. Larson, Elliott and Hamlin are all real contenders for the checkered flag. Keselowski was my best bet to finish in the Top 10 and Busch was my top longshot choice. As much as I don’t like Blaney this weekend, you can’t count out the defending champ.

Bet: Under 17.5 (-125)

Cook Out 400 Group Winner

• Ryan Blaney (+225)
• Joey Logano (+225)
• Chase Elliott (+280)
• William Byron (+350)

I’ve already detailed the first three drivers in this group prop bet. So, let’s look at William Byron. The #24 car has just one Top 5 and three Top 10s in 12 career starts. His 15.2 average finish puts him behind Logano (9.7) and Elliott (10.8), but ahead of Blaney (20.0).

Of this group, only Logano has wins at Richmond with two. His 46.7% Top 5 finishing rate and 63.3% Top 10 finishing rate are the best among the group as well. Lastly, he has eight Top 7 finishes in the last 10 races including four in a row.

Take Logano to finish ahead of the pack.

Bet: Joey Logano (+225)

Team of Race Winner 

• Joe Gibbs Racing (-105)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+240)
• Team Penske (+475)
• RFK Racing (+850)
• 23XI Racing (+1400)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+1800)
• Richard Childress Racing (+2500)
• Trackhouse Racing (+2500)

Last race, we went with Hendrick Motorsports and they brought home the win for us on several wagers. This weekend we’re going with Joe Gibbs Racing who has won seven of the last 13 fall Richmond races.

Bell and Hamlin are both highly capable of winning on Sunday. In fact, Hamlin already won at this track in the spring. He also has five career victories at Richmond. Truex has three Richmond wins and could fight his way into the winner’s circle as well. JGR is a serious threat to win on Sunday and -105 odds still provides solid value.

Bet: Joe Gibbs Racing (-105)