2024 NASCAR YellaWood 500 Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, October 6, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Talladega Superspeedway for the YellaWood 500. This is the second trip for the Cup Series to Talladega and it’s certainly going to shake up the Playoff Standings.

This weekend’s event marks the 31^st race of the season, fifth of the Playoffs, and the second race in the Round of 12. Following the October 13^th race in Charlotte, another four drivers will be eliminated at the conclusion of the second round. That means only eight drivers will remain in contention for the 2024 NASCAR Championship. 

Last weekend in Kansas, Ross Chastain shocked the field by winning the Hollywood Casino 400. He edged out both William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. to pick up the victory. Chastain led the second most laps in that race with 52. Christopher Bell led the most laps with 122.

Byron was the best of the Playoff field as he finished second, but came away with the most Playoff Points at 52. That’s why he now leads the Playoff Standings. He’s followed by Ryan Blaney who finished fourth in Kansas and scored 49 Playoff Points to put him second in the standings.

This week, Blaney is considered one of four drivers that are tied as the betting favorites with +1200 odds. Joining Blaney are Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch. Denny Hamlin and William Byron are tied at +1400 odds to win the YellaWood 500.

The reason that these odds are so even, and guys like Kyle Larson or Christopher Bell aren’t favored, is because this is a superspeedway race where we always see a high volume of crashes including “the big one” in the final laps.

With that said, let’s take a look at the latest YellaWood 500 odds and make our NASCAR Cup Series predictions for this weekend’s race at Talladega Superspeedway.

Hollywood Casino 400 Race Profile

Located in Lincoln, Alabama, the Talladega Superspeedway is a tri-oval track with a 2.66 mile lap distance. The track itself has an asphalt surface with four turns of 33 degrees in banking. The tri-oval has a 16.5 degree banking, while the straights have only a 2 degree banking.

Sunday’s YellaWood 500 race breaks down as follows:

• Total Miles: 500.8 miles
• Total Laps: 188 laps
• Stage 1: 60 laps
• Stage 2: 60 laps
• Final Stage: 68 laps

The YellaWood 500 is set to begin at 2 pm ET and will air live on USA.

Previous YellaWood 500 Winners

Dale Earnhardt Sr. holds the record for the most all-time wins in this race with seven. His son, Dale Earnhardt Jr., is second with three all-time wins. Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney are the active drivers with the most wins at two apiece.

The following is a list of the most recent winners:

• 2023: Ryan Blaney
• 2022: Chase Elliott
• 2021: Bubba Wallace
• 2020: Denny Hamlin
• 2019: Ryan Blaney
• 2018: Aric Almirola
• 2017: Brad Keselowski
• 2016: Joey Logano
• 2015: Joey Logano
• 2014: Brad Keselowski

Richard Childress holds the record with eight wins in this race. Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports are tied for second with six wins apiece. Chevrolet has the sizable advantage for the most manufacturer wins with 22. Ford is second with 17 wins.

NASCAR YellaWood 500 Odds

The following NASCAR Cup Series YellaWood 500 odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

NASCAR YellaWood 500 Playoff Drivers

The following drivers are in the 12-car Playoff field. Let’s take a look at how these drivers have fared in the postseason so far, and how they might do at the Talladega Superspeedway this weekend:

William Byron (+1400)

• Playoff Standings: 2
• Playoff Points: 3074
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 15

As mentioned above, William Byron finished 2^nd at Kansas last weekend. It was just his second Top 10 in the last six races and his first Top 5 in the last seven races. Nevertheless, it helped Byron to jump to the top of the Playoff Standings heading into Talladega this weekend.

At the Talladega Superspeedway, Byron has had some modest success over the last few years. In 13 starts, Byron has three Top 5s, five Top 10s, and a 15.3 average finish which is 6^th best among fulltime Cup Series drivers.

Byron has eight Top 15s in the last nine races at Talladega. Furthermore, he has five Top 7 finishes in the last eight races at this track, including three in a row. Byron was 2^nd in this race last year and 7^th at this track in the spring.

For as hard as it is to predict Talladega and Daytona races, Byron should be a Top 10 driver with a Top 3 ceiling this Sunday.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

• Playoff Standings: 2
• Playoff Points: 3068
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 9
• Top 10: 14

If this were any other track, but Talladega, Ryan Blaney would be the large betting favorite. However, since this track can be so unpredictable due to all the wrecks, Blaney is tied as the odds-on favorite at +1200 odds.

Blaney has three wins at Talladega, which is tied with Joey Logano for the second most among active Cup Series drivers. Brad Keselowski has the most Talladega wins, in the field, with six.

In 20 starts at this track, Blaney has three wins, six Top 5s, eight Top 10s and a 14.8 average finish, which is fourth best among the active full-time drivers.

Over his last 10 races at Talladega, Blaney has three wins, five Top 5s, six Top 10s, and eight Top 15s. He won this race last year and was second in 2022.

Blaney has three Top 6s in the last four races, was fourth in Kansas last weekend, sixth in Bristol two weeks ago, and could jump to the top of the standings with a strong run this weekend.

The #12 car will be a Top 10 driver with a race-winning ceiling.

Christopher Bell (+2500)

• Playoff Standings: 3
• Playoff Points: 3068
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 18

Christopher Bell might not be winning races over the last few months, but he’s still highly competitive and consistent. Bell has seven Top 7 finishes in the last nine races on the season.

In the Playoffs, Bell has three Top 7s and a 14^th to give him a 7.5 average finish. He was 7^th at Kansas after starting on the pole and led the most laps. Unfortunately, he couldn’t close it out and win the race.

At Talladega, Bell has struggled like most drivers. In nine races, he has one Top 5, two Top 10s, and a 21.0 average finish. Bell crashed in the spring race here, but has a 15.5 average finish over the last two YellaWood 500 races.

Bell should be a Top 15 driver this weekend with a Top 10 ceiling.

Kyle Larson (+2500)

• Playoff Standings: 4
• Playoff Points: 3058
• Wins: 5
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 14

My favorite driver Kyle Larson let me down last weekend. When I pick him to win, he seems to fall short of my expectations. But when I don’t pick him to win, he ends up making me pay for it.

After crushing the field in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race two weeks ago, Larson ended up 26^th at Kansas last weekend. It was a poor finish that has some pundits worrying about his chances moving forward.

Longtime fans of Larson know that he’s not a contender when it comes to Superspeedway races. In fact, he has just one Top 5 in 19 Talladega races and just three Top 10s. Larson has six DNFs and a 22.8 average finish at this track.

For Larson to succeed this weekend, he needs a Top 15 finish. If he can do that, then the #5 car will be in a good position to advance to the next round as the Charlotte Road Race is next on the calendar after Talladega. And, Larson has won at the Charlotte Road Course in the past.

As for Sunday’s race, I would avoid Larson in every wager or prop bet unless you are betting against him in a head-to-head matchup.

Denny Hamlin (+1400)           

• Playoff Standings: 5
• Playoff Points: 3051
• Wins: 3
• Top 5: 10
• Top 10: 14

Denny Hamlin needed a high finish at Bristol two weeks ago in order to advance to the Round of 12. He finished 4^th. Hamlin carried that momentum over to Kansas last weekend with an 8^th finish. After a rough patch, it looks like the #11 car is back to his Top 10 consistency and he aims to carry that over for a third Playoff race in a row.

Hamlin has two wins at Talladega, but it’s been four years since he’s accomplished that feat. Since then, he’s alternated between solid finishes and poor results.

With that said, if we look at that trend, then Hamlin is poised for a Top 10 finish this weekend since he crashed in the spring Talladega race this year and finished 37^th.

In fact, Hamlin has five straight Top 7 finishes in the YellaWood 500 which includes winning this race in 2020. He was third in this race last year, 5^th in 2022, 7^th in 2021, won in 2020, and 3^rd in 2019.

Since Hamlin hasn’t gone to victory lane in 20 races this year, I’m taking the #11 car to be a Top 10 driver with a Top 5 ceiling and not a race-winning ceiling like Blaney, Keselowski or Logano.

Alex Bowman (+2500)

• Playoff Standings: 6
• Playoff Points: 3048
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 7
• Top 10: 15

Alex Bowman has had a solid postseason so far, despite not winning a race. He’s followed a similar path as Bell has. The #48 car has three Top 10s and an 18^th over the four Playoff races. That comes out to a 9.5 average finish over the last four races.

Unfortunately, he’s also followed Bell’s path at Talladega as well, and that’s not a good thing. In 17 starts at the superspeedway, Bowman has two Top 5s, five Top 10s, a 22.8 average finish and six DNFs.

Now, he did score a 5^th in the spring race this year. However, he has three crashes in the last nine races at this track. Like Larson, a Top 15 finish would be a victory for Bowman. Avoid the #48 car this weekend unless you are betting against him in driver matchups.

Chase Elliott (+1800)  

• Playoff Standings: 7
• Playoff Points: 3044
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 15

Among fulltime Cup Series drivers, Chase Elliott has the second best average finish at Talladega (13.7). In 17 starts, he has two wins, five Top 5s, and eight Top 10s along with just three DNFs. However, he hasn’t had any DNFs in the last eight races.

Elliott was 15^th in the spring race at Talladega and 7^th in this race last year. The #9 car won the 2022 YellaWood 500. Over the last five Talladega races, Elliott has one win, one Top 5, three Top 10s and five Top 15s.

Like Bowman and Bell, Elliott has been very consistent in the Playoffs so far. He was 9^th at Kansas last weekend, second at Bristol, 19^th at Watkins Glen, and 8^th in Atlanta. That’s a 9.5 average finish heading into this weekend’s race.

I like for Elliott to be a Top 10 driver with a race-winning ceiling.

Joey Logano (+1200)

• Playoff Standings: 8
• Playoff Points: 3044
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 9

As mentioned before, Joey Logano shocked us at the start of the Playoffs by winning in Atlanta. So, he can certainly surprise us again with a win this weekend. Keep in mind, Logano has three wins at Talladega in his career along with nine Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and an 18.5 average finish in 31 starts.

With that said, Logano has not had much success at Talladega over the last few years. In the last nine races at this track, Logano has just one Top 5. He’s finished 17^th or worse in eight of those races. In fact, he’s finished 24^th or worse in six of those appearances with three crashes.

Sure, the #22 car’s luck could change this weekend as there is a huge element of luck in this race, in regards to avoiding late-lap crashes. Yet, since winning in Atlanta, Logano has been 15^th at Watkins Glen, 28^th at Bristol, and 14^th last weekend in Kansas.

I think that trend continues of Logano flirting with a Top 15 finish and a best case scenario of a Top 5 result.

Tyler Reddick (+2200)

• Playoff Standings: 9
• Playoff Points: 3040
• Wins: 2
• Top 5: 11
• Top 10: 19

Like Larson, pundits are questioning Tyler Reddick’s Playoff performance to date. Currently, the regular season champ has three straight finishes of 20^th or worse. If it weren’t for a 6^th in Atlanta, the #45 car wouldn’t have advanced to this Round of 12.

Unlike Larson, Reddick has actually won at Talladega before. In fact, he won the spring race this year. Prior to that, he had just two Top 10s. Even with that win, Reddick’s average finish is still 19.2, which isn’t that great.

When you combine his recent three-race stretch of 20^th or worse on the season, with a 19.2 average finish at Talladega, and how hard it is for anyone to sweep both Talladega races in the same season, I strongly advise you to avoid Reddick this weekend in all bets.

Daniel Suarez (+3000)

• Playoff Standings: 10
• Playoff Points: 3030
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 7

One of the biggest surprises of the Playoffs so far, has been Daniel Suarez. He was a longshot to make the postseason at the beginning of the year, but a win in Atlanta automatically qualified the #99 car.

At the start of the Playoffs, many pundits had Suarez out after the first round. However, he defied those predictions and expectations by finishing 2^nd in Atlanta and 13^th in Watkins Glen to advance to the Round of 12 despite a 31^st finish in Bristol.

The #99 car finished 13^th in Kansas last year and is looking for another Top 15 result to keep him in reach of the Top 8 for advancing to the next round.

At Talladega, Suarez has four Top 10s and a 19.7 average finish in 15 starts. Additionally, he has three of those four Top 10s in the last four races at this track. Suarez was 10^th in this race last year and 8^th in the 2022 YellaWood 500.

In all likelihood, Suarez should be a Top 20 driver this weekend with a Top 10 ceiling.

Chase Briscoe (+3500)

• Playoff Standings: 11
• Playoff Points: 3019
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 3
• Top 10: 9

Like Suarez, Chase Briscoe is below the cutoff line and trying to put together a strong finish in Talladega to give him a shot at advancing to the next round following the Charlotte road race.

Briscoe started the Playoffs with a crash in Atlanta but then scored a 6^th in Watkins Glen and an 8^th in Bristol to advance to the Round of 12. Unfortunately, a 24^th in Kansas has the #14 car sitting 11^th in the Playoff Standings and in danger of elimination.

Luckily for Briscoe, he’s had some modest success at Talladega, which should give him a boost of confidence heading into this weekend’s big race.

In seven starts at this superspeedway, Briscoe has one Top 5, two Top 10s, and a 14.4 average finish. He’s only finished outside of the Top 15 in one of those races. That result came in 2022, when he crashed and scored a 37^th result. Otherwise, Briscoe has finished 14^th or better in every Talladega race including the last four in a row.

I think Briscoe can be a Top 15 driver this weekend, provided that he stays out of trouble. However, you can say that about every Cup Series driver this Sunday.

Austin Cindric (+2200)

• Playoff Standings: 12
• Playoff Points: 3015
• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 2
• Top 10: 5

Austin Cindric had a solid opening round of the Playoffs with an 8.25 average finish over the first three postseason races. He finished 13^th or better in those races. Unfortunately, he was 34^th in Kansas last weekend and he now sits in last place of the Playoff Standings.

Cindric has his work cut out for him this weekend. Fortunately for the #2 car, he’s had some success in the YellaWood 500 for his young career. In two starts for this race, Cindric was 5^th last year and 9^th in 2022. However, in his three spring Talladega race appearances, he’s been 21^st or worse in all of them

I think there’s a chance that Cindric quietly goes under the radar this weekend and scores a Top 10 result. It would continue his trend of strong YellaWood 500 finishes. To be safe, don’t bet on anything better than a Top 15 result for Cindric.

YellaWood 500 Best of The Rest

The following drivers are not qualified for the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, but they still offer value at Talladega Superpeedway:

Brad Keselowski (+1200)

• Wins: 1
• Top 5: 8
• Top 10: 12

Brad Keselowski was eliminated from the Playoffs following the Bristol race. However, that doesn’t exclude him from being a real threat in this Talladega race on Sunday.

In 31 Talladega starts, Keselowski has six wins, 11 Top 5s, 15 Top 10s, and a 15.4 average finish. His wins are the most among active Cup Series drivers along with his Top 5s. He’s tied with Hamlin in Top 5s and one result behind the #11 car for the most Top 10s.

In his last seven Talladega starts, Keselowski has one win, two runner ups, and four Top 5s. The other three results were 23^rd or worse. He was 2^nd in the spring race at this venue, but 32^nd in the 2023 YellaWood 500.

Keselowski is a contender for the checkered flag. But when looking over his Talladega success, much of it has come in the spring race instead of this fall one. It might be wiser to roll with Keselowski as a Top 10 driver than a race winner.

Kyle Busch (+1200)

• Wins: 0
• Top 5: 5
• Top 10: 10

Kyle Busch is still fighting for a win this season, with the hopes of keeping his streak of at least one victory a year going.

He’s been a race winner at Talladega before, having won twice in 38 starts. He also has eight Top 5s and 10 Top 10s. Busch won the 2023 spring race at Talladega, but hasn’t had success in the YellaWood 500 since 2013 when he finished 5^th.

Since then, all of his top results were in the spring Talladega race. In his last eight YellaWood 500 appearances, Busch has finished 19^th or worse in all of them and 25^th or worse in six of the eight.

I would avoid Busch’s race winning odds. He will be lucky to crack the Top 10.

The Best Top 5 Bet for the YellaWood 500

Ryan Blaney (+220) is the race favorite for a reason. He has three Top 5 finishes in the last four races at this track and three wins in the last 10 Talladega events.

Blaney won this race last year, was 2^nd in 2022, 15^th in 2021, 25^th in 2020 due to a crash, and won it in 2019.

Winning this race last season really bolstered Blaney in his run to becoming the 2023 Cup Series Champion. I believe he has the best chance out of anyone to duplicate that success with a Top 5 this Sunday.

The Best Top 10 Bet for the YellaWood 500

Chase Elliott (+100) offers great value for a Top 10 finish considering he has eight Top 10s in 17 starts. However, he has five consecutive Top 15 finishes and an 8.5 average finish over his last five races at this track.

Elliott was 7^th in this race last year, won it in 2022, was 18^th in 2021, 5^th in 2020, and won it in 2019. That’s two victories in his last five YellaWood 500 starts and a 5.3 average finish over that span.

Take the #9 car to compete for a race win this weekend and score at least a Top 10 result.

NASCAR YellaWood 500 Predictions: Who Wins?

I always say that Daytona and Talladega are the toughest races to predict due to the high speeds and even higher volume of crashes. If that weren’t enough to worry about when betting on the YellaWood 500, you still have “the big one”, which is the big wreck late in the race that collects a good number of cars.

With that said, I like Blaney, Keselowski, Elliott, and Logano, Byron or Hamlin to finish in the Top 5. I wouldn’t be surprised if Busch found a way into the Top 5, but I would prefer to watch it than bet on that happening based on his season.

As for the winner, your guess is as good as mine. But I do like the chances of the winner coming from Blaney, Keselowski and Elliott. Since Elliott offers slightly better value than the other two, I’m taking the #9 car to survive the late race crashes and find his way into victory lane.

Bet: Chase Elliott (+1800)

NASCAR YellaWood 500 Prop Bets

The following NASCAR YellaWood 500 prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Either To Finish Top 3: Elliott or Keselowski (+200)

As you can see from above, I have Elliott and Keselowski in my Top 5 and Top 3 drivers for this weekend’s Talladega race.

So, it only makes sense to ride that prediction with this NASCAR prop bet. If one of them makes it into the Top 3, then we score $200 on a $100 wager. Keep in mind, these two drivers have combined for eight wins and 16 Top 5s at Talladega.

Bet: Elliott or Keselowski (+200)

Winning Manufacturer

• Chevrolet (+145)
• Ford (+145)
• Toyota (+500)

This race is going to come down to Chevy or Ford. I don’t see Toyota pulling it off unless Denny Hamlin can somehow win it, which isn’t unthinkable. I like him as a Top 5 driver.

With that said, three drivers that I believe have a real shot at winning this race are Blaney, Keselowski and Logano. Additionally, I feel that both Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric can crack the Top 10. With a little luck, they could be at the front of one of the two lines and contend for a checkered flag.

All five of those cars are Ford. Additionally, the trio of Blaney, Keselowski and Logano have combined to capture 12 checkered flags at Talladega with six coming in the YellaWood 500.

Bet: Ford (+145)

YellaWood 500 Race Group Winner

• Chase Briscoe (+240)
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+240)
• Austin Dillon (+280)
• Erik Jones (+280)

Chase Briscoe is not only the third best full-time Cup Series driver in terms of average finish at Talladega (14.4), but he’s also the only driver of this group to still be in the Playoffs. So, he has a lot more to ride for than the other three. He also has a lot more pressure as well.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (15.1) is just two spots behind Briscoe in average finish and also has a win at this track. However, he hasn’t cracked the Top 10 in the YellaWood 500 since 2019. And, his victory in 2017, was for the spring Talladega race.

Erik Jones (19.4) and Austin Dillon (19.9) both have lower average finishes as well. Dillon has crashed in two of the last three Talladega races and hasn’t finished in the Top 10 for the YellaWood 500 since 2019.

Jones could be the wild card in this group as he has three Top 10s in the last four YellaWood 500 races. However, the #43 car has just one Top 10 all season long and it wasn’t at Talladega. It was the first race of the season in the Daytona 500.

I like for Briscoe to sneak in the Top 10, while the rest of these drivers will be lucky to sniff the Top 15.

Bet: Chase Briscoe (+240)

Team of Race Winner

• Team Penske (+400)
• Hendrick Motorsports (+400)
• Joe Gibbs Racing (+450)
• RFK Racing (+750)
• Richard Childress Racing (+1000)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+1100)
• 23XI Racing (+1100)
• Trackhouse Racing (+1200)

You might be luckier just throwing a dart at the dartboard and seeing which team name it hits. That’s how hard this prop bet will be.

With that said, Blaney and Logano both driver for Team Penske and I like their chances more than any other team on this list because it gives us two drivers that have six Talladega wins and four YellaWood 500 victories. Blaney is the reigning winner in this race as well.

Plus, this allows us to hedge our bets by taking Hendrick’s Elliott to win the race.

Bet: Team Penske (+400)

Winning Car Number

• Over 17.5 (-110)
• Under 17.5 (-110)

At this point, it should be pretty clear which way I’m leaning towards this prop bet. In fact, I absolutely love the Under 17.5 option for the entire weekend slate of NASCAR betting action.

With the Under, we get the following drivers: Chastain (1), Cindric (2), Larson (5), Keselowski (6), Busch (8), Elliott (9), Hamlin (11) and Blaney (12).

Most of my Top 5 drivers have cars under the number of 17. The only other driver I really like that’s not in this group is Logano (22). With that said, getting Blaney, Keselowski, Elliott and Hamlin is a tremendous value.

Bet: Under 17.5 (-110)