2024-25 NBA Assist Leader Odds and Predictions

The 2024-25 NBA season should be among the most exciting in recent memory. The top online sportsbooks are ready for the season. You can wager on countless NBA odds, team futures, and player props at these top providers, including which player will finish the season as the league leader in assists per game.

This race is particularly exciting as it not only highlights the players’ unselfishness but also underscores their vision, basketball IQ, and leadership on the court. With players like Trae Young and Tyrese Haliburton leading the way, and dark horses such as Chris Paul and Fred VanVleet in the mix, the competition for the NBA’s assist crown is wide open.

In this blog, I’ll break down the odds for the 2024-25 assists title contenders. With so many elite playmakers in contention, I’ll also predict which player holds the most betting value and who could ultimately finish as the NBA’s assists leader this season.

NBA Assist Leader Odds

Trae Young (+135)

Trae Young leads the pack as the favorite to win the assists crown this season, with +135 odds. As the offensive catalyst for the Atlanta Hawks, Young’s playmaking is essential to his team’s success.

Young averaged 10.8 assists per game last year, but he didn’t play in enough games to qualify for the leaderboard. If he had, he’d have finished a close 2nd to Tyrese Haliburton (10.9) in this race. While he routinely ranks among the league leaders in this category, surprisingly, he has never won the NBA’s assists title. He finished 2nd to James Harden 2 years ago, while he took 3rd place back in 2021-22.

Young’s role as the primary ball handler in a high-octane offense makes him a strong candidate to rank among the league leaders again this term. Atlanta lost his backcourt running mate in Dejounte Murray via trade to the New Orleans Pelicans this offseason, but that should only keep the ball in Young’s hands more often. It’s somewhat remarkable that he’s managed to average 10-plus assists over the past few years while sharing ball-handling duties with Murray in the Hawks’ backcourt.

While he finished 2nd behind Haliburton in assists per game, Young actually led the NBA in potential assists per game, with 18.2. Frankly, it’s just a matter of whether his teammates will be able to convert the looks Trae generates for them.

With his deep range shooting attracting defenders and opening up passing lanes, Young’s ability to dish out assists to his teammates remains unparalleled. The issue is we’re not getting much upside in Trae’s current +135 odds.

Tyrese Haliburton (+175)

Close behind Trae Young is Tyrese Haliburton, who has quickly established himself as one of the league’s premier passers. Haliburton averaged a league-leading 10.9 assists per game last season, which won him the assists title.

The Indiana Pacers‘ fast-paced offense suits his game perfectly, and with a talented supporting cast, Haliburton will have plenty of opportunities to rack up assists. Indiana has a deep rotation full of capable shooters around Haliburton, which makes his job an easy one. Haliburton finished 2nd to Young in potential assists per game a season ago, with 17.8.

In news that should surprise nobody, the Pacers led the NBA in points per game (123.3) while finishing just behind the Boston Celtics in offensive efficiency (117.9 points per 100 possessions). Indy also led the league in field goal percentage (50.7 percent). They ranked 9th in 3-point percentage (37.4 percent), as well.

One potential hangup for Haliburton is that players have to play in at least 65 regular-season games in order to qualify for end-of-season leaderboards. He just crossed that threshold with 69 games played last season, but he’s failed to crack 65 twice in his 4 NBA seasons to this point.

At +175, Haliburton represents a solid bet, especially given his natural ability to control the pace and find his teammates in rhythm.

Luka Doncic (+900)

Luka Doncic is one of the most versatile players in the NBA, and while he’s known for his scoring, his playmaking is equally impressive. Luka averaged a career-high 33.9 points per game last season, but he also contributed a career-best 9.8 assists per contest. In related news, Doncic also averaged the most minutes (37.5) of his career.

The Dallas Mavericks have done a terrific job of surrounding Doncic with ideal complementary talent. While Kyrie Irving is fully capable of creating his own looks, the rest of the Mavs’ supporting cast is built perfectly to play alongside Doncic. Dallas has no shortage of capable spot-up shooters between PJ Washington, Maxi Kleber, Spencer Dinwiddie, and newcomer Klay Thompson. The Mavericks have also paired Luka with a pair of lob-catching centers in Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, who make for optimal pick-and-roll partners for the Mavericks’ franchise cornerstone.

While Luka has yet to average at least 10 assists per game in an NBA season, it’s likely just a matter of time until he gets there. He’s still only 25, and he’s gotten better every year to this point. I think this is the year he finally crosses that threshold, and he’s the only player in the league capable of winning the scoring and assists titles in the same season.

His overall usage rate as the Mavericks’ primary offensive weapon makes him a strong contender. His dominance of the ball and his vision on the court means he’ll always be near the top of the assists leaderboard. At +900, Luka could provide great value if he takes advantage of the talent around him. Doncic finished third in potential assists per game a season ago at 16.9.

James Harden (+1000)

James Harden’s role in recent years has shifted more toward being a playmaker, and his +1000 odds to lead the league in dimes reflect that shift.

Despite his seemingly never-ending trade drama, Harden still averaged 8.5 assists per game last season across 72 appearances for the Los Angeles Clippers. It took him time to adjust to his new role after his early-season trade from the Philadelphia 76ers, but he’s primed to play an even bigger role this season. The Clippers lost both Paul George and Russell Westbrook this summer, so they’ll be even more heavily reliant on The Beard to run the offense.

Harden is the rare former scoring champion who’s also led the NBA in assists. He won his first assists crown with the Houston Rockets in 2016-17 and followed it up with another title in 2022-23 with Philadelphia. Harden is one of just 11 players to ever win multiple assists titles, and he’ll look to join Westbrook and Rajon Rondo as 3-time winners this season.

One potential hindrance to Harden’s quest for another assists title is that he may have to take on a larger scoring role this season for the Clips without George on the roster. Kawhi Leonard is a lock to lead LA in scoring as long as he can stay healthy, though, so I’d expect Harden to serve as the offensive initiator.

He re-signed with the Clippers this offseason, so the trade drama should mercifully abate. If Harden is given the freedom to run the offense, he’s a top contender to lead the league in assists once again.

Nikola Jokić (+1500)

Nikola Jokic, the reigning NBA MVP, is one of the most unique playmakers in the league due to his position as a center. Jokic averaged 9 assists per game last season and led the Denver Nuggets’ offense with his incredible vision and passing ability. Jokic finished third among all players in assists per game, which is a remarkable feat for a 7-footer. He’s a walking triple-double and is the only big man in the league known more for his playmaking ability than anything else.

Jokic has also been among the most durable players in the league, which enhances his chances of finishing near the top of the assists leaderboard. He’s played at least 69 games in every season of his career, including 79 in 2023-24. The 3-time league MVP finished 5th in potential assists per game last year (14.9), though the player directly ahead of him – Ja Morant – only appeared in 9 games.

The Nuggets have one of the most talented starting units in the league, but everything offensively runs through Jokic. Denver has surrounded him with more than enough shooting to drive up his assist totals, and he’s a very willing distributor from the post.

While competing against traditional point guards is challenging, Jokic’s versatility and Denver’s team-oriented playstyle make him a potential dark horse wager at +1500.

LaMelo Ball (+4000)

LaMelo Ball’s flashy style and creativity on the court make him an intriguing pick. Ball has the talent to lead the league in assists, but health concerns and the overall strength of the Charlotte Hornets could hinder his chances.

Staying on the court has been a challenge for Ball early in his pro career. The former No. 3 overall pick has averaged 7.4 assists per game in his career – including 8.0 last season – but he’s topped 52 games in just 1 of his 4 seasons since entering the league. Last season, he played a career-low 22 games after again dealing with a slew of injuries.

Ball’s lack of availability is the main case against him to finish as the assists leader. Again, you have to play at least 65 games to win the title, and he’s only topped that number once.

The Hornets are also likely to be among the worst teams in the league again this season. While Ball is still an elite playmaker when healthy, his teammates likely won’t do him any favors. Charlotte finished with the 5th-lowest team shooting percentage (46 percent) a season ago, and none of the moves they’ve made this offseason are likely to improve their performance in that regard this year.

Nevertheless, Ball’s odds of +4000 make him a longshot bet that could pay off if he stays healthy and the Hornets play faster this season. Ball has the vision and passing ability to rack up hefty assist numbers.

Chris Paul (+4000)

Chris Paul, despite being in the twilight of his career, is still one of the best playmakers in the league. Now with the San Antonio Spurs, Paul’s odds of +4000 present intriguing value.

He spent most of last season playing as the backup to Stephen Curry with the Golden State Warriors, but he’s expected to serve as the Spurs’ starting point guard this year. CP3 has led the NBA in assists per game 5 times in his Hall-of-Fame career, with his last title coming in 2021-22 with the Phoenix Suns.

Paul will be a terrific playmaker in an offense that’ll feature Victor Wembanyama, but do the Spurs have enough shooting to help Paul get back to the top of the assists leaderboard? San Antonio finished just one spot above Charlotte in team shooting percentage a season ago, and Harrison Barnes has been the only other noteworthy addition to the roster this summer.

It’s also worth wondering whether he’ll play enough to rack up huge assist numbers. CP3 is now 39 years old, and staying healthy hasn’t been a strength of his over the years. He did still average an impressive 6.8 assists per game last season despite averaging around 26 minutes. He’s going to have to top 30 minutes a night in order to have a realistic shot at leading the NBA in this category, though, and I’m not sure those minutes will be there for him. CP3 also hasn’t topped 65 appearances since 2021-22.

Given those concerns, Paul looks like quite the risk, even at the potentially alluring +4000 odds.

LeBron James (+5000)

LeBron James may not be a traditional point guard, but his playmaking ability has been a key feature of his game throughout his career. At +5000 odds, James is more of a longshot, but his ability to control the game and set up teammates will still lead to solid assist numbers.

The Los Angeles Lakers‘ more traditional point guard is D’Angelo Russell, but the offense still flows primarily through James and Anthony Davis. It’s remarkable that LeBron will turn 40 years old in December, yet he’s still near the peak of his powers. James averaged a healthy 8.3 assists per game a season ago, and he’s averaged at least 8 helpers in each of the last 3 seasons.

LA has a new coach this season in former NBA sharpshooter JJ Redick. Redick has never coached at any level, so there’s no telling what kind of offensive scheme he’ll put in place with his new team. That said, it’s safe to assume LeBron will remain the focal point of everything the Lakers want to do offensively. Surrounding James with shooters has been a recipe for success throughout his career, though the Lakers finished last season with the 3rd-worst team 3-point percentage (31.4 percent) in basketball.

James won the assist title for the first and only time in his career back in 2019-20. He’ll always rank among the league leaders, so I prefer LeBron at +5000 to Paul at +4000 as a long-shot bet with a small chance to pay off.

Cade Cunningham (+5000)

Cade Cunningham is a rising star in the NBA, and with the Detroit Pistons looking to improve, Cunningham’s role as their primary playmaker will be critical. He has shown flashes of brilliance as a passer, and at +5000, he could be a sneaky pick to surprise everyone this season if he stays healthy and takes a leap in his 4th year.

Cunningham averaged 7.5 assists per game last season across 62 appearances. That was easily the highest assist average of his young 3-year career, and we can assume the 23-year-old will only continue to improve. Health could be a key here, however, as Cunningham has yet to cross the critical 65-game threshold in any season to date.

The Pistons were the league’s worst team a season ago, though they should improve this season after adding a few capable shooters in Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway Jr. this offseason. Simone Fontecchio also proved to be a useful addition after coming over from the Utah Jazz in a trade midway through the 2023-24 campaign.

Cunningham was the No. 1 overall pick a few years ago after drawing comparisons to LeBron James during his lone collegiate season at Oklahoma State. He has unique size at 6’7″ for a point guard, and he’s shown a consistent willingness to use that size to his advantage against smaller defenders.

Who Will Lead the NBA in Assists?

Looking at the odds and each player’s situation, Tyrese Haliburton (+175) emerges as the best bet to lead the NBA in assists for the 2nd consecutive season. His game perfectly fits the Indiana Pacers’ fast-paced style of play, and with a young, athletic roster around him, Haliburton will have countless opportunities to rack up assists.

He’s proven that he can control the offense, read defenses, and distribute the ball effectively, which gives him an edge over the competition. While Trae Young is a close contender, Haliburton’s odds present slightly better value given his supporting cast and playstyle.

If you’re looking for a solid bet with great potential for return, Haliburton is the pick to lead the league in assists this season.

If you’re looking for a long-shot bet with some potential, I love the value on James Harden at +1000. The Clippers will look a little different this season, and I’d expect Harden to be very heavily involved as the primary playmaker. Getting a training camp under his belt in Tyronn Lue’s system will help, and we’ve seen Harden lead the NBA in dimes twice before.

Best Bet: Tyrese Haliburton (+175)

Value Bet: James Harden (+1000)