2024 NBA Cup Finals Odds and Predictions

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The 2024 NBA Cup is about to finish up as the Finals take place on December 17. The second annual NBA in-season tournament has been a success by all accounts, especially the on-court product.

The Finals will feature two of the league’s top teams as the Milwaukee Bucks battle the Oklahoma City Thunder. Both teams had convincing victories in the Semifinals and look poised to not only win the NBA Cup, but to also contend for the NBA Championship.

With that said, let’s take a closer look at the 2024 NBA Cup Finals odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, how both teams got here, and make our NBA Cup predictions.

2024 NBA Cup Final Odds

The following NBA odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

NBA Cup Predictions

Before we make our NBA Picks for the 2024 NBA Cup, let’s take a look at how they both got here and the status of the team heading into the Finals:

Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks started off the tournament in the East Group B. Joining the Bucks were the Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Toronto Raptors, and Indiana Pacers. On paper, this seemed like it would be a very tough group to get out of.

However, that wasn’t the case. Only two of the five teams finished group play with a winning record: Bucks and Pistons. The Heat were 2-2, while the Raptors (1-3) and Pacers (0-4) finished with pitiful records.

In the Quarterfinals, the Bucks took on the surprising Orlando Magic who qualified due to being the best team to not win a group in the East.

Milwaukee was able to edge by the Magic in the QF matchup (114-109) and move on to face Atlanta in the Semifinals. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 37 points against the Magic. He had another strong performance against the Hawks with 32 points and 14 rebounds. The Bucks won that game 110-102.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Like the Bucks, the Oklahoma City Thunder had a tough group on paper. Joining OKC in the West Group B were the Phoenix Suns, 2023 NBA Cup winner Los Angeles Lakers. San Antonio Spurs, and Utah Jazz. Four of the five teams finished with a .500 or better record. Only the Jazz (0-4) finished with a losing record in group play.

The Thunder advanced based on a +45 point differential, which edged out the Suns by 15 points. Both teams finished with identical 3-1 records. The Lakers and Spurs finished with 2-2 records.

In the Quarterfinals, the OKC beat Dallas 118-104. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 39 points to go along with five assists. He almost equaled those totals in the Semifinals game as SGA lead the Thunder to a 111-96 win. SGA finished with 32 points and six assists.

Who Wins The 2024 NBA Cup?

This really turned out to be an exciting NBA Cup Finals matchup. Both teams are playing elite level of basketball. The Thunder are first in the Western Conference and the Bucks are coming on strong with a 8-2 record over their last 10 games. Yet, the Thunder have gone 9-1 in their last 10 games.

Both teams feature superstars on their rosters including primary scorers. For the Bucks, they’re led by the two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s averaging 32.7 points per game and is the biggest reason why Milwaukee even made it to the NBA Cup Finals.

The Thunder have a well-balanced, versatile offense along with one of the league’s best defenses. They’re led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who’s averaging 30.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 6.2 apg. We could be looking at a matchup of two NBA MPV favorites in the Cup Finals.

I like the Thunder to win the NBA Cup and feel good about their moneyline. The Bucks have gone 4-7 in road games this season, while the Thunder have a fantastic home record of 10-2. Yet, the Bucks are 8-2 against the Thunder in the last 10 meetings. But, both of those Thunder wins came at home.

As a Home Favorite, the Thunder are 10-2. The Bucks are 1-4 as the Away Underdog. After 2-3 days rest, the Thunder are 3-0, while the Bucks are 5-2. Milwaukee is 2-1 against the Western Conference this year, while the Thunder are a perfect 4-0 against the Eastern Conference.

I also believe that the Thunder will cover the spread as well. The Bucks are 10-14-1 ATS this season and 5-6 ATS on the road. The Thunder are 16-9 ATS this season, but just 7-5 ATS at home, and that’s partly due to sportsbooks overvaluing OKC at home.

As the betting favorite, the Thunder are 15-9 ATS. The Bucks are 3-2 ATS as away underdogs. Milwaukee is 1-2 ATS against the West, while OKC is 4-0 ATS versus the East.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the Under is 6-4. I like for that trend to continue in the NBA Cup Finals. I think we see the Under hit because this game will have a lot of intensity and defense. Additionally, the Under is 3-0 for the Thunder after 2-3 days off. It’s also 11-8 following a Thunder win and 4-1 when the Bucks are a road dog.

I expect the Thunder to outplay the Bucks as a whole. Giannis might put up the most points in the game, but his one-man efforts won’t be enough to beat one of the best teams in the league. SGA and company will end up pulling away late in the game to win by at least five points. The OKC defense, which ranks first in the league in points allowed, will nullify the rest of the Bucks’ offense.

Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder (-195), Thunder -5 (-110), Under 214.5 (-110)

NBA Cup Finals Prop Bets

Check out our picks for the best NBA Cup Finals Game and Player Prop bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo Points

• Over 29.5 points (-110)
• Under 29.5 points (-110)

For the season, Giannis is averaging 32.7 ppg. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 33.7 ppg. In the Quarterfinals and Semifinals, Giannis tallied 34.5 ppg. Lastly, for the month of December, he’s averaging 32 ppg.

Even though the Thunder have the best defense in the league, I still expect Giannis to lead the charge in this match. He’s a 30 and 10 guy virtually every night. Take the Over in this one as Antetokounmpo will score at least 30 points.

Bet: Over 29.5 points (-110)

Giannis Antetokounmpo Rebounds

• Over 11.5 points (-110)
• Under 11.5 points (-110)

Keeping with the Giannis theme, the Bucks need him to have a big game on the boards as well. The Bucks are 4^th in the NBA for defensive rebounds at 34.8 per game. The Thunder allow 35.1 per game.

Giannis is averaging 11.5 rebounds per game in the season. He did put up 14 rebounds against the Hawks in the Semifinals against a decent rebounding team in the Hawks. Take the Over.

Bet: Over 11.5 rebounds (-110)

Damian Lillard Points

• Over 22.5 points (-110)
• Under 22.5 points (-110)

For the Bucks to have any shot at winning this game, they need Damian Lillard to step up big time. On the season, he’s averaging 25 points per game. However, the Bucks need a 30-point performance from Lillard to have any hope of upsetting the Thunder on their home court.

Lillard averaged 27.2 ppg in November and 25.2 ppg in December so far. He put up 26.5 ppg in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals of the NBA Cup.

Lillard has gone over 22.5 points in nine of his last 10 games. I expect the veteran star to put up at least 25 points in this Finals matchup.

Bet: Over 22.5 points (-110)

NBA Cup Finals Best Bets

The Best Bets for the NBA Cup Finals are as follows:

• Oklahoma City Thunder (-195)
• Oklahoma City Thunder -5 points (-110)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo over 29.5 points (-110)

The Bucks have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games, which has been impressive. However, the Thunder have gone 9-1 over their last 10 games. Additionally, the Thunder are 10-2 as a home favorite, 3-0 following 2-3 days rest, and 4-0 against the Eastern Conference this year. The Bucks are 1-4 as an underdog on the road.

I like the Thunder to cover the spread as well. They’ve gone 16-9 ATS this season, 15-9 ATS as the favorite, and 4-0 ATS versus Eastern Conference teams. The Bucks are 10-14-1 ATS this season, 5-6 ATS in away games, and 1-2 ATS versus Western Conference teams.

Lastly, I like Giannis Antetokounmpo to score over 29.5 points against the Thunder and their NBA-leading defense. Antetokounmpo is a beast that’s averaging 32.7 ppg on the season. He scored 34.5 ppg in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals, along with tallying 33.7 ppg in his last 10 games, and 32 ppg for the month of December so far.  

The Thunder have great perimeter defense, but they do allow some opponents to find success in the paint. I see Giannis putting up big numbers but his team falling short of the victory as SGA ices the game with late free throws and the Thunder win by six or more.

Do NBA Cup Games Count?

Another popular question for anyone looking to bet on the NBA in general is if NBA games actually count. They do, except for the championship itself.

This means the games that are scheduled are built into the regular 82-game regular season schedule, but if you make it to the NBA Cup title game you would be on the court a little longer than anyone else.

Who Won the NBA Cup in 2023-24?

If you’re new to betting on the NBA Cup, you might think the first title was won by the Boston Celtics or Dallas Mavericks. But no, it was actually won by the Lake Show.

Last year’s first ever In-Season tourney title game went down between the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers. Anthony Davis balled out en route to the championship.

NBA Cup Schedule for 2024-25

Before you bet on the 2024-25 NBA Cup, consider the schedule (all times listed are EST):