2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player Odds and Predictions

The race for the NBA’s Most Improved Player (MIP) award is one of the most exciting to follow every season. The award typically goes to a player who has made a significant leap in their performance, often moving from a role player to an All-Star or from a promising young prospect to a team leader.

Perhaps the best thing about betting on Most Improved Player is that we rarely have much insight off of which to go before a season begins. We can make educated guesses as to which players may perform well enough to get themselves into the race, but it will ultimately come down to which player proves it on the court.

The Most Improved Player NBA odds for the 2024-25 season highlight a mix of rising stars, former lottery picks, and players who have already shown flashes of greatness. Below is a table of the current odds for the top contenders, followed by a detailed analysis of their chances to take home the hardware.

Most Improved Player Odds

Victor Wembanyama (+1000)

Victor Wembanyama came into the NBA with more hype than any player since LeBron James. The towering Frenchman lived up to the hype – and then some – in a terrific rookie season. Wemby predictably took home Rookie of the Year honors after averaging 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.6 blocks, 3.9 assists, and 1.2 steals per game for the Spurs. The San Antonio Spurs didn’t come particularly close to challenging for a playoff spot – finishing a dismal 22-60 – but Wembanyama is already a bona fide superstar at the age of 20.

Wembanyama’s expectations are sky-high. That alone could prove challenging in a potential Most Improved Player quest, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to get better and better. The slender 7’4″ center could stand to add some muscle to his frame, and it’s fair to assume he’ll do just that. He did struggle a bit against some of the league’s more physical big men, but that’s to be expected for any rookie.

Wembanyama should compete for a spot on the Western Conference All-Star roster, at the very least, next season. He’ll also be firmly in the running for Defensive Player of the Year after finishing second in the voting to Rudy Gobert in 2023-24. For the rest of the league, it’s a little alarming to think that Wemby posted monster numbers last year while averaging only 29.7 minutes per game. San Antonio kept the phenom on a tight minutes restriction for the vast majority of the season, and he should put up even bigger numbers if he’s fully unleashed this term.

If he shows significant improvement from early-season performances to later games, his odds could increase further. While I could see him winning MIP, I’m not convinced he should be the preseason favorite at +1000 odds. He’s already a much more established star than several other players who figure to contend for the trophy.

Evan Mobley (+1000)

Evan Mobley has become a cornerstone for the Cleveland Cavaliers, primarily due to his defensive prowess. However, his offensive game has room for growth, and that’s where his chances for the Most Improved Player award come into play. Last season, Mobley averaged 15.7 points and 9.4 rebounds per game while anchoring one of the league’s best defenses. To win MIP, Mobley will need to take a significant leap offensively—possibly developing into a 20+ point scorer while continuing his elite defensive play.

Interestingly, Mobley’s scoring average actually dipped from 2022-23 to last season. Much of the Cavs’ offense flows through Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, so Cleveland isn’t necessarily relying on Mobley to post big numbers on that end of the floor.

Mobley’s Most Improved Player odds (+1000) are favorable because he has the opportunity to make a bigger impact in Cleveland’s offensive system, particularly with Mitchell and Garland drawing most of the defensive attention. A key will be whether he can continue to improve upon his long-distance shooting. Mobley converted an impressive 37.3 percent of his 3-point attempts last year, which was a major improvement upon the 21.6 percent mark he posted the season prior. He still only took an average of 1.2 triples per game, however.

I’m a fan of Mobley as a high-end role player in the mold of Chris Bosh, but I’m not necessarily expecting him to improve exponentially in what will be his fourth NBA season. I’ll pass on the Cavs’ forward at +1000 to win MIP.

Jonathan Kuminga (+1400)

Jonathan Kuminga has been one of the most intriguing young players for the Golden State Warriors over the past few years. His raw athleticism and defensive potential have earned him minutes in a competitive rotation, and his offensive game started to blossom last year. Kuminga averaged a career-high 16.1 points per game, which is quite a leap considering he averaged less than 10 points per game through his first 2 NBA seasons.

For Kuminga, this season represents an opportunity to earn more consistent playing time and develop into a more reliable scorer and playmaker. The Warriors lost Klay Thompson this summer, which should open up some usage for Kuminga next to Steph Curry.

However, he may not even begin the season as a starter for this team. Brandin Podziemski looks like the most likely candidate to fill Thompson’s starting role, which could leave Kuminga on the bench behind Draymond Green and Trayce Jackson-Davis in the frontcourt. I’d still expect Kuminga to be a fixture in Steve Kerr’s regular rotation, but he’ll need to round out his game if he wants to challenge for Most Improved Player. Despite standing 6’7″ with elite athleticism, Kuminga only averaged a middling 4.8 rebounds per game in 2023-24.

I’m not bullish enough on Kuminga as a prospect to take him seriously as a Most Improved Player frontrunner at the current +1400 odds.

Scottie Barnes (+1600)

Scottie Barnes experienced somewhat of a sophomore slump after winning Rookie of the Year in 2022, but he bounced back in a big way last season. Last season, Barnes averaged 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 6.1 assists for the rebuilding Toronto Raptors. Those were all career highs. He also posted 1.5 blocks per game for good measure. Barnes’ chances for Most Improved Player will rely heavily on his offensive development, particularly in terms of becoming a more consistent outside shooter and a more aggressive scorer.

The Raptors traded Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby last season, which was a signal that the team plans to build its long-term future around Barnes and fellow MIP contender Immanuel Quickley. After seeing his 3-point percentage slump to just over 28 percent in 2022-23, Branes improved to 34.1 percent a season ago. He also drilled a career-best 78.1 percent of his free throws while proving the Raptors with extremely valuable perimeter defense.

Despite his improvements across the board, Barnes didn’t earn a single Most Improved Player vote a season ago when the award ultimately went to the Philadelphia 76ers‘ Tyrese Maxey. That was quite curious, especially considering players like Grayson Allen, Deni Avdija, and Duncan Robinson all garnered votes.

Barnes has all the tools to be a star in the NBA: size, versatility, playmaking, and defense. However, his ceiling will be determined by how much he can improve his shooting efficiency and whether he can become the primary offensive option for the Raptors. With Toronto going through a period of change after the aforementioned departures of other key players, Barnes has the opportunity to take a larger role on the team.

If he can take that leap, he’s a strong candidate for the MIP award. I love the value here at +1600.

Josh Giddey (+1700)

Josh Giddey dealt with some off-court issues prior to last season, and he never really recovered. After a promising first 2 years in the league with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Giddey’s numbers across the board dipped last term. He averaged 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game in a career-low 25.2 minutes per game. He was a regular starter for Mark Daigneault, but his inefficient shooting was problematic for a Thunder team that needed to surround Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with as much shooting as possible.

So, the Thunder flipped him to the Chicago Bulls this offseason in exchange for Alex Caruso. In Chicago, Giddey figures to get a new lease on life for what will likely be a rebuilding squad before long. He’ll join last year’s Most Improved Player runner-up – Coby White – in the backcourt, where he may serve as the starting point guard.

Giddey is a stellar athlete with solid court IQ, but he’ll struggle to establish himself as long as he isn’t much of a threat from beyond the long line. The days of non-shooting guards excelling in this league are likely in the past. He’s a career 31 percent shooter from 3-point country, though he did improve to a career-best 33.7 percent last year on 3 attempts per game.

He’s the kind of player capable of averaging a triple-double if he gets the minutes, and I’d expect the Bulls to give Giddey a better opportunity than the Thunder did last year. That said, I’m skeptical of his MIP chances while playing for a Chicago team that likely won’t generate many favorable headlines in 2024-25.

Cade Cunningham (+2000)

The Detroit Pistons took Cade Cunningham with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, and they’re still waiting for the Oklahoma State product to become a superstar. He’s improved his numbers in each of his first 3 seasons, though injuries have impacted him of late. Cunningham was limited to just 12 games in 2022-23 due to a shin injury, while he missed another 20 games last season.

Detroit was the league’s worst team last year, so it’s easy to have overlooked Cunningham’s statistical improvements. He averaged 22.7 points, 7.5 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game and knocked down a career-best 35.5 percent of his 3-point attempts. Cunningham is a huge point guard (6’7″) and was billed as a knockdown shooter coming out of college, though last season was the first in which he really showed that marksmanship on a consistent basis.

Cunningham’s mix of size, shooting, and playmaking ability makes him awfully unique, and he’s still only 22. The Pistons aren’t likely to make a playoff push this season, but they should be better. Detroit added a few veteran pieces this offseason in Tobias Harris and Malik Beasley, which could help to push them closer to contention. The Pistons have a few other young cornerstones in Jalen Duren and Jaden Ivey, so they appear to be trending in the right direction.

They won’t truly take that next step until Cunningham emerges as a perennial All-Star. Cunningham’s path to winning MIP lies in his ability to stay healthy and improve his efficiency, particularly in terms of shooting. His 32.9 percent career 3-point shooting percentage is an area where he can grow, and a leap in this area would boost his overall offensive impact.

Additionally, with the Pistons in a rebuilding phase, Cunningham will have every opportunity to dominate the ball and increase his statistical production. A healthy and consistent season from Cunningham could see him become one of the top candidates for this award.

Jalen Williams (+2000)

Jalen Williams emerged as one of the biggest surprises in his rookie season with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Last year, he became a borderline All-Star in just his second pro campaign. J-Dub contributed 19.1 points, 4.5 assists, and 4 rebounds per game while helping the Thunder finish with the best record in the Western Conference. His rapid development as a complementary piece next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander explained why OKC was willing to part ways with Josh Giddey earlier this summer.

Williams is a high-IQ player who can score in multiple ways, defend at a high level, and contribute in various aspects of the game. What more could the Thunder want from a glue guy? Williams is capable of putting points on the board when SGA is on the bench, and he finished last season as one of the game’s most lethal threats from long range. Williams converted on 42.7 percent of his 3-point attempts on 3.4 tries per game. That was quite the improvement upon the 35.6 percent mark he posted as a rookie.

Williams finished fourth in Most Improved Player voting last season behind Maxey, White, and Alperen Sengun. The Thunder figure to be among the teams hunting for the top seed in the West again this season, though it’s worth wondering how much Williams will be able to improve this term from a statistical perspective.

For Williams to win Most Improved Player, he will need to become a more dominant offensive force. His ability to score both inside and out, combined with his defensive versatility, makes him a valuable asset to the Thunder. If he can build upon his impressive sophomore season and increase his scoring to around 20-22 points per game while maintaining his defensive prowess, Williams could be a dark horse for the award.

Jalen Johnson (+2200)

Jalen Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks is an intriguing candidate for Most Improved Player after enjoying a breakout 2023-24 campaign. Oddly enough, Johnson is another player who clearly improved considerably yet didn’t earn any MIP consideration. What gives?

He became a full-time starter after the Hawks finally parted ways with John Collins, and his numbers exploded. After averaging less than 5 points per game through his first 2 seasons, Johnson improved his scoring average to 16 points per game last year. He also upped his rebounding average to 8.7 in a career-best 33.7 minutes a night. While I fully buy the 22-year-old as one of the Hawks’ young building blocks, I’m not sure what more he can do to win MIP after failing to register with voters at all a season ago.

Johnson will likely have to average around 20 points and 10 rebounds per game just to get on the radar from an MIP perspective. That’s far from impossible given how much he improved last season, but I think we have better value on the board elsewhere.

Immanuel Quickley (+2500)

Immanuel Quickley took a massive leap last season for the Raptors after arriving in Toronto via the trade that sent OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks. Quickley didn’t get any Most Improved Player consideration, but I like his chances of making a run at the award in what will be his first full season in Toronto.

Quickley played a secondary role for the Knicks as the primary backup to Jalen Brunson. In Toronto, however, he was an offensive focal point alongside Scottie Barnes. IQ averaged about 15 points per game off the bench in 30 appearances for the Knicks. In 38 games for the Raps – all starts – Quickley upped his averages to 18.6 points and nearly 7 assists.

He’s a potent threat from 3-point range (39.5 percent last season), and he’ll get the minutes he needs to thrive. Quickley was only playing 24 minutes per game off the Knicks’ bench, yet he was up north of 33 minutes per game with Toronto. I’d expect him to play 35-plus a night in the new season for a rebuilding Toronto bunch.

One area where Quickley can improve is his efficiency. While he shot well from three-point range last season, increasing his overall shooting percentage and playmaking ability would elevate his status. He only host 42.2 percent from the floor with Toronto. With the Raptors unlikely to push for a playoff spot, Quickley will have the opportunity to prove himself as a key piece in their rebuild. If he continues to develop his offensive arsenal and becomes more consistent, he could easily win MIP.

Scoot Henderson (+2800)

As the No. 3 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Scoot Henderson entered the league with high expectations, particularly as the Portland Trail Blazers transitioned into a new era post-Damian Lillard.

Henderson is a dynamic point guard with elite athleticism, playmaking, and scoring ability. He battled injuries as a rookie, but we saw glimpses of what made Scoot such an exciting prospect coming into the league. In 62 games, Henderson averaged 14 points, 5.4 assists, and 3.1 rebounds. He only started 32 games in a crowded Portland backcourt, but he’ll be in line for more playing time this season now that the Blazers have shipped Malcolm Brogdon out of town.

Henderson’s efficiency will be important to his development and whether he can reach his ultimate ceiling. He only shot 38.5 percent from the field and 32.5 percent from downtown as a rookie. This was a known issue for Scoot before the Blazers drafted him, but they’re reportedly confident that he’ll eventually develop into a threat as a jump shooter. In the meantime, he’ll get most of his points by using his beefy 6’3″, 205-pound frame to bully smaller guards en route to the basket.

For Henderson, the key to contending for this award will be how quickly he can adjust to the NBA level. If he can showcase his ability to lead a team and produce high-level performances consistently, he could surprise voters. Anfernee Simons is entrenched as the Blazers’ first option offensively, which will give Henderson room to grow as a complementary player.

With Portland giving him the keys to the offense, Henderson’s opportunity to shine is unparalleled. Should he demonstrate significant growth throughout the season, particularly in his shooting and decision-making, Henderson could find himself in the conversation for MIP.

Bennedict Mathurin (+3000)

Bennedict Mathurin wasted no time in establishing himself as a capable scorer at the NBA level. He’s averaged 15.8 points per game across 2 seasons for the Indiana Pacers after a standout freshman season in college at Arizona. He figures to be a contender for Sixth Man of the Year on what should be a solid Pacers team, though he’ll have to round out his game if he wants to challenge for Most Improved Player.

As of now, Mathurin doesn’t offer much beyond scoring. He’s only averaged 4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game in the NBA, and he’s not a particularly impactful defender. Indiana has high hopes this season, but Rick Carlisle also has a deep rotation at his disposal. Mathurin will spike a few high-scoring games, but he could also struggle to see consistent minutes with Carlisle having so many viable players in the rotation.

The Pacers are building around a young core, and Mathurin will be a focal point of their offense alongside Tyrese Haliburton. If Mathurin can increase his scoring efficiency and develop more consistency in his outside shooting, he has the potential to elevate his game to the next level. His aggressive mentality and ability to score in bunches make him a prime candidate for a breakout season. With Indiana likely giving him more responsibilities, Mathurin has a clear path to becoming one of the league’s most improved players.

Jalen Green (+3500)

Jalen Green was a highly-rated prospect when he joined the Houston Rockets as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NBA draft. The first few years of Green’s pro career have been marred by inconsistency, but he’s shown flashes of absolute brilliance. Green showed marked improvement in his first year under new head coach Ime Udoka last season, as well.

Green averaged 19.6 points overall on inconsistent shooting, but in March of 2024 he was arguably the best player in the sport. In 15 games that month, Green averaged a robust 27.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, an d nearly 4 assists while shooting 49 percent from the field and almost 41 percent from 3-point territory. Green’s surge coincided with an injury to Alperen Sengun, who finished third in MIP voting in 2023-24.

Sengun will remain the Rockets’ offensive cornerstone, but the 22-year-old Green still has an incredibly high ceiling as a player. It’s really just a matter of consistency. There’s no doubting Green’s talent or athleticism, and he has All-Star potential if he can find a way to deliver efficient performances on a nightly basis.

Who Will Win Most Improved Player?

As always, the Most Improved Player race looks wide open as we prepare for the new season. I’m as high on Wembanyama as anybody, but I’m not a fan of his current +1000 MIP odds. With such lofty expectations, Wembanyama could lose some traction with voters if he doesn’t get off to a flying start.

This early in the year, I’d much rather take a flier on other values with longer odds. These odds are going to fluctuate throughout the season, so timing is everything when it comes to your bets. As of now, my favorite value bets are Scottie Barnes (+1600), Immanuel Quickley (+2500), and Jalen Green (+3500).

All 3 players will have ample opportunity to thrive next season. In terms of value and likelihood of winning, I’d side with Quickley at +2500 if I had to pick one winner.

Best Bet: Immanuel Quickley (+2500)