2024-25 NBA MVP Odds and Predictions

The 2024-25 NBA season is on the horizon. If you’re on social media, you’ve likely already seen a nauseating amount of discussion about which player will win the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award. The NBA MVP debate often takes on a life of its own on NBA Twitter, and the upcoming campaign will be no exception, to be sure.

The conversation is typically dominated by the same names. Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic has won the award in 3 of the last 4 seasons, while the Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo won it in back-to-back seasons between 2018 and 2020. In news that should surprise nobody, both international stars are among the frontrunners to win it again this term.

The NBA MVP odds are closely reflecting the league’s top talent, with the Dallas Mavericks‘ Luka Doncic entering yet another season as the favorite. Luka has been the preseason favorite on multiple occasions in recent years, yet his next MVP win will be his first since entering the league back in 2018.

You can already bet on NBA MVP before the season begins, of course. The NBA odds have been available since the end of last season, and they’ve shifted accordingly over the course of the summer. Who’s the best bet to win the league’s most coveted individual award in 2024-25?

2024-25 NBA MVP Odds

You can find the following NBA MVP odds at the top basketball betting sites.

Luka Doncic (+370)

Luka Doncic has emerged as the preseason favorite for the 2024-25 MVP award, and for good reason. The Croatian sensation continues to put up MVP-caliber numbers on a yearly basis. Last year, Luka averaged a career-high 33.9 points to go along with 9.8 assists and 9.2 rebounds. Even so, that wasn’t enough to win him the award. Doncic wound up finishing third in MVP voting behind Jokic and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Doncic ultimately had the last laugh, however, as he wound up leading the Mavericks to the NBA Finals for the first time in his career. They fell short of winning a championship, but Dallas enters the 2024-25 season with their loftiest expectations of the Doncic era.

Luka’s offensive versatility makes him nearly impossible to defend, whether he’s setting up teammates with his elite playmaking or dominating as a scorer. The only areas in which Doncic has struggled historically are his conditioning and defense, but reports suggest he has worked on improving both during the summer.

One key factor in Luka’s MVP chances is team success. The Mavericks had an underwhelming 2022-23 campaign – narrowly missing the playoffs – but last year’s Finals run has many believing they’re a title contender this time around. If they can secure a top-four seed, Doncic’s MVP odds will likely improve, as MVP voters almost always reward players from successful teams. With his elite usage rate and ability to dictate the Mavericks’ offense, Luka is poised for another stellar year.

The narrative around Luka could also play in his favor. Having been in the MVP conversation for a few years now, it might feel like it’s time for him to win the award, especially given his role as one of the NBA’s brightest young superstars. As long as he can maintain his usual dominance while leading the Mavs to team success, Luka Doncic remains a strong bet for the MVP. He’s a lock to win this award at some point in his career, and this may well be the year.

Nikola Jokic (+400)

Fresh off of lifting his 3rd NBA MVP trophy in the last 4 years, Nikola Jokic remains one of the most compelling candidates for the regular season MVP. Last season, he averaged a near triple-double with 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9 assists per game, showcasing his unique skill set as the most versatile big man in the league. The Nuggets fell short in their quest for back-to-back championships, so motivation shouldn’t be an issue for the big Serbian entering the new season.

Jokic’s value to the Nuggets is unquestionable. He orchestrates Denver’s offense with his pinpoint passing and court vision, often leading fast breaks like a guard. His efficiency is off the charts, as he shoots at an elite percentage from the field despite being a focal point for opposing defenses. The MVP race may come down to whether Jokic can sustain his level of dominance throughout the regular season and whether the Nuggets can continue to rank as a top team in the Western Conference.

Voter fatigue could be a problem for Jokic in his quest for a 4th MVP. Just 5 players in the history of the NBA – Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and LeBron James – have ever won as many as 4 MVPs. Jokic is one of 4 players – along with Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Moses Malone – to have won exactly 3. He’s still only 29 years old, so there’s reason to believe he can win it again if he stays healthy and continues to post triple-doubles on a nightly basis.

Despite his doughy frame, Jokic has been one of the most durable players in the sport over the course of his career. Since joining the Nuggets as an unheralded 2nd-round pick back in 2015, Jokic has never played less than 69 games in a season. He logged 79 games last year as the Nuggets battled the Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

Jokic’s playoff success over the years only bolsters his case as the league’s best player. If he puts up another season of ridiculous numbers while leading Denver to a high seed, the voters could feel inclined to reward him once again, especially given how much of an anomaly his skill set is for a center.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took a massive leap last season, establishing himself as one of the NBA’s premier guards. He averaged 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game while leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to the best record in the mighty Western Conference. The Thunder wound up falling to Doncic and the Mavs in the 2nd round of the playoffs, but many believe this could be the best team in the conference again in 2024-25.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to score at all three levels – combined with his improved playmaking and defense – makes him a legitimate MVP contender heading into next season.

What makes SGA’s MVP case so compelling is the upward trajectory of both his career and the Thunder franchise. Oklahoma City has an exciting young core that includes Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren – and with the right development – this has the makings of a potential dynasty. This isn’t the first time we’ve said that about Oklahoma City, of course. Remember the Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook/James Harden core? That trio combined to win a grand total of zero championships together.

Still, there’s reason for optimism. This young team added a couple of savvy veterans this offseason in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, which bolsters both their defense and their depth. If Gilgeous-Alexander can continue to post MVP-level numbers while leading the Thunder to the top seed in the West, his candidacy will gain serious traction.

Shai’s efficiency, particularly his ability to get to the free-throw line, separates him from other guards. He shot an impressive 53.5 percent from the field and 87 percent from the free-throw line last season. His two-way impact, leadership, and growing stardom make him a dark horse candidate to win MVP. Should the Thunder make the playoffs and SGA continues his upward climb, this could be his breakthrough year.

Remember, Gilgeous-Alexander finished 2nd in the voting behind Jokic a season ago.

Joel Embiid (+700)

The 2022-23 MVP, Joel Embiid, finally captured the award a couple of years ago after multiple years of finishing as a finalist. Embiid led the league in scoring with 33.1 points per game that year, adding 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists while anchoring the Philadelphia 76ers’ defense. His dominance on both ends of the floor, combined with his unmatched ability to score as a big man, keeps him firmly in the conversation for MVP honors on an annual basis.

However, for Embiid to win again, he’ll have to overcome several challenges. Firstly, voter fatigue could come into play, as voters may be more inclined to look at other deserving candidates who haven’t won before, such as Doncic or Gilgeous-Alexander. More importantly, Embiid will have to stay on the floor.

By rule, players who don’t play in at least 65 regular-season games cannot win MVP or any other postseason award. Embiid logged just 39 games played last year. While he averaged career-highs in both scoring (34.7) and rebounding (11), Embiid was ineligible for the award. Because he’s frequently not at full strength by the time the playoffs roll around, Embiid has said publicly that he plans to prioritize staying healthy over chasing regular-season awards.

While Embiid’s numbers will be elite enough to put him in the conversation, I simply don’t think it’s very likely that he’ll top 65 games played. Embiid has crossed that threshold just twice in his entire career. At +700 MVP odds, I’ll gladly pass on Embiid from a betting standpoint.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (+800)

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a perennial MVP candidate for the past several years, and the 2024-25 season will be no different. The Greek Freak continues to be one of the most physically dominant players in the NBA, averaging 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists last season. With his combination of size, speed, and athleticism, Giannis is a nightmare matchup for opposing teams on both ends of the floor.

While Giannis’ numbers were MVP-caliber, last season was a bit of a debacle for the Bucks. The addition of Damian Lillard didn’t go as smoothly as planned, while first-year head coach Adrian Griffin was dismissed and replaced by Doc Rivers in the middle of the campaign. Milwaukee crashed out of the playoffs for the 2nd straight year with a 6-game defeat at the hands of the Indiana Pacers.

There is some reason for optimism this year, however. Giannis and Lillard are saying all the right things in preseason, and there’s a chance their chemistry will improve in their 2nd year together. If Dame can round back into form, Giannis may find more opportunities for easier looks as teams will have to account for Lillard’s scoring ability. This dynamic duo could catapult Milwaukee to the top of the Eastern Conference standings, which would only strengthen Giannis’ MVP case.

Another factor working in Giannis’ favor is his relentless drive to improve. Even after winning two MVPs and a championship, Giannis continues to push his limits and expand his game. If the Bucks finish as the top team in the East and Giannis remains their clear leader, it will be difficult for voters to ignore his contributions, especially with an upgraded supporting cast.

Anthony Edwards (+1200)

Anthony Edwards is one of the fastest-rising stars in the NBA, and his MVP odds at +1200 reflect the growing belief that he could be on the verge of superstardom. Edwards has shown steady improvement in his first 4 seasons, and his standout performance during the Minnesota Timberwolves’ surprising run to the Western Conference Finals further solidified his place as one of the most electrifying young talents in the league.

Last season, Edwards averaged 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and with the Timberwolves focused on building around him, his numbers could take another leap. Earlier this month, the Wolves made the shocking decision to trade franchise cornerstone Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. While Randle is another offensive-minded big man, the move was a signal that Minnesota’s brass is ready to hand the offensive reins to Edwards going forward.

One of the key factors that could propel Edwards into the MVP conversation is the success of the Timberwolves. While Minnesota has had an inconsistent team performance in recent years, if they can nab the top playoff seed from the slew of contenders, Edwards can vault his way into the MVP discussion. His explosiveness, ability to score from anywhere on the court, and improving defense make him a potential MVP candidate.

Moreover, the narrative around Edwards is intriguing. As a charismatic player who thrives in the spotlight, he has the personality and swagger that can sway MVP voters. His leadership on a young T-Wolves team and his ability to carry them to success will be critical. If Edwards continues his on-the-court improvement and Minnesota can exceed expectations, he could surprise a lot of people in this MVP race.

Jayson Tatum (+1800)

Jayson Tatum remains a steady presence in the MVP conversation year after year. After leading the Boston Celtics to a championship last season, Tatum enters the 2024-25 campaign with high expectations. He averaged 26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists last season while improving as a defender and playmaker. At +1800, Tatum’s odds are reflective of his ability to put up elite numbers while playing on a championship-caliber team.

As you may expect, the Celtics have essentially decided to run it back after breezing to a title last year. The additions of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday ultimately helped get Boston over the hump, though Tatum is still the focal point of Boston’s offense. The newcomers alleviated some of Tatum’s offensive burden, allowing him to be more efficient.

Secondly, the Celtics’ improved roster should lead to them again finishing as one of the top teams in the league, which would strengthen Tatum’s MVP case. Historically, MVP voters have favored players from top-seeded teams, and Boston is certainly poised for another deep playoff run.

For Tatum, the next step in his MVP campaign is consistency. He’s had moments where he’s looked like the best player in the league, particularly in key playoff performances. If Tatum can sustain his dominance throughout the regular season and the Celtics secure a high seed, his MVP odds will only improve. He has all the tools to be a perennial MVP candidate; now it’s about putting it all together over the course of an entire season.

Jalen Brunson (+1800)

Jalen Brunson’s rise in the NBA has been nothing short of remarkable. After a breakout 2023-24 season where he led the New York Knicks to the second round of the playoffs, Brunson has emerged as a legitimate MVP dark horse. Averaging 28.7 points and 6.7 assists last season, Brunson was the engine of the Knicks’ offense, showing his ability to both score efficiently and create for his teammates. His MVP odds of +1800 may seem surprising, but they reflect his growing influence on a team that thrives on his leadership.

What separates Brunson from other point guards is his poise and decision-making. Despite being undersized for his position, Brunson is incredibly crafty in how he creates space for his shots and navigates defenses. His mid-range game and ability to finish around the rim are elite.

Expectations are also sky-high for the Knicks this season. New York added a couple of All-Star-caliber players in Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, which should be enough to put them firmly in contention for a potential Finals run. New York hasn’t represented the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals since 1999, but this year’s team will likely be their best bet to snap the skid.

For Brunson to win MVP, the Knicks will likely need to secure a top-3 seed in the Eastern Conference, something that is not out of the question considering the strides they made last season. While he’s not a flashy player like some of the other MVP contenders, Brunson’s efficiency, leadership, and knack for delivering in the clutch make him a legitimate candidate, especially if New York exceeds expectations once again. Playing in the nation’s biggest media market won’t hurt Brunson’s chances, either.

Victor Wembanyama (+2000)

Victor Wembanyama – the San Antonio Spurs‘ 2nd-year phenom – enters the MVP conversation after just 1 year in the NBA. The buzz surrounding Wembanyama is well-warranted, as his combination of size (7’4″), skill, and athleticism is something the league has never seen before. He has the ability to score from anywhere on the floor, block shots with his enormous wingspan, and even handle the ball like a guard. While it’s extremely rare for a player this young to win MVP, Wembanyama is not your typical player, to say the least.

As a rookie, Wemby averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks, and 1.2 steals per game. He only averaged 29.7 minutes, which makes those numbers even more eye-popping. The Spurs managed Wembanyama’s workload for most of his rookie season, and it’ll be fascinating to see what he can do if they unleash him further in 2024-25.

Wembanyama finished 2nd in Defensive Player of the Year voting behind Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert. Not only is Wemby favored to win the award this season, but it’ll likely be the first of many if he does win it.

The challenge for Wembanyama will be adjusting to the rigors of the NBA, particularly on a Spurs team that is still in the early stages of its rebuild. Because voters historically do not reward players on bad teams with the MVP award, San Antonio is likely going to have to make the playoffs just to get the Frenchman into the conversation.

If Wembanyama can lead the Spurs to a playoff spot while putting up monstrous numbers, he could make a run at it despite still only being 20 years old. His unique skill set has the potential to transform the Spurs’ fortunes overnight, and he has all the makings of a once-in-a-generation type of talent.

The MVP odds for Wembanyama reflect the hype surrounding him, but it’s important to remember that this is a long shot for a player on a bad team. However, if anyone can defy the odds, it might just be him. The key will be staying healthy and adjusting to the physicality of the league, but don’t be surprised if Wembanyama makes some noise in the MVP race sooner than expected.

Ja Morant (+4000)

Ja Morant has a reputation as one of the most dynamic players in the league, but his MVP candidacy for the 2024-25 season comes with several caveats. Morant, who averaged 26.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 8.1 assists in 61 games 2 seasons ago, is undoubtedly one of the most explosive guards in the NBA. However, he played in just 9 games last season due to a combination of injury and a league-imposed suspension.

If he can get past his off-the-court issues, Morant’s potential is undeniable. He has the ability to take over games with his jaw-dropping athleticism and electrifying playmaking. The Memphis Grizzlies are a legitimate contender in the Western Conference if they can stay healthy, and if Morant can rejoin the team and lead them to a top-3 seed, his MVP stock will rise.

Staying healthy won’t just be an issue for Morant, however. Several of the Grizzlies’ primary players missed large chunks of last season, which caused them to slip out of the playoffs entirely. Jaren Jackson Jr. is already dealing with a new hamstring injury heading into training camp, which is suboptimal for a team that was bitten by the injury bug relentlessly in 2023-24.

Morant’s MVP case will hinge on how well he performs upon returning and whether the Grizzlies can rise back to the top of the conference standings. If Morant returns with a vengeance, his narrative could be one of redemption, which might sway voters. However, it’s a steep climb, and he’ll need to be at his best for the duration of the season to have a real shot at the MVP. Ja has only appeared in at least 65 games once in his 5 NBA seasons, which is another hurdle he’ll have to clear.

Who Will Win NBA MVP in 2024-25?

Many players have compelling MVP cases entering the new season, from established veterans like Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo to rising stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards. However, the best bet to win the 2024-25 MVP is the frontrunner, Luka Doncic. In fact, many of the top sports betting handicappers are also jumping on the Doncic bandwagon.

Doncic has consistently put up MVP-caliber numbers, and with the Mavs coming off a Western Conference title, he is in an ideal position to claim his first MVP trophy. Luka is the focal point of everything Dallas wants to do offensively, and I’d expect monster numbers again from the 25-year-old. If the Mavericks can secure a top-3 seed in the Western Conference – which is very possible given their roster improvements – Luka’s candidacy will be hard to overlook.

At +370 odds, Doncic offers both value and the clearest path to the MVP, making him the best bet for the 2024-25 season. We’re still getting good bang for our buck at these odds, and they’ll only shorten if he gets off to a hot start. Get this bet in while you still can.

Best Bet: Luka Doncic (+370)

Recent NBA MVP Winners

The following is a list of the most recent NBA MVP winners: