2024-25 NBA Southwest Division Odds and Predictions

The NBA’s Southwest Division offers some of the most interesting storylines heading into the 2024-25 season. You can squint and make a case that each of the 5 teams in the Southwest have a chance to make the playoffs this season, which certainly can’t be said of every division.

The Southwest features the defending Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks, while each of the division’s other 4 teams is seeking to make strides. The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs feature some of the best young rosters in the sport, while the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies could be an NBA Finals dark-horse if they can avoid the injury bug.

The 2024-25 season is on the horizon, and it’s never too early to get your NBA futures bets placed at top sports betting sites. Online sportsbooks already have countless NBA odds and props posted and ready for your perusal. Let’s dive in and find the best way to bet on the Southwest Division heading into the new campaign.

Dallas Mavericks

• Division Odds: +115
• Win Total: O/U 49.5 (-120/+100)
• To Make the Playoffs: Yes (-525), No (+380)
• Play-In Odds: +235

The Dallas Mavericks head into the 2024-25 season as favorites to win the Southwest Division behind Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and a strong supporting cast.

After falling painfully short of a championship last year, Dallas made a few big moves this offseason. The most major addition is future Hall-of-Famer Klay Thompson, who will come over to add even more sharpshooting and size on the wing. The team signed veteran swingman Naji Marshall to replace the departed Derrick Jones Jr., but the Mavs are otherwise running it back with the same roster that reached the Finals a season ago.

Adding veteran role players who complement Luka’s all-around game has been general manager Nico Harrison’s primary objective since taking the job. Few could’ve expected Dallas to advance to the Finals just a year after missing out on postseason play entirely, but this team’s championship window will be open for as long as Doncic can stay healthy. Luka is still only 25 years old, and he’s fresh off of a season in which he averaged 28.9 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game. The Slovenian sensation is a perennial MVP candidate, and he’s arguably the most dynamic offensive player in the league.

Kyrie Irving has settled into his role as the team’s secondary playmaker. Around the 2 All-Star guards, the Mavs have added athletic wing defenders in Marshall and Quentin Grimes, perimeter shooters in Thompson, Grimes, PJ Washington, and Spencer Dinwiddie, and a pair of rim-running centers in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. All things considered, Dallas boasts one of the deepest and most talented rosters not just in the West, but in the NBA as a whole.

The West is deep, but the Mavericks’ win total (49.5) looks a little low. Dallas won 50 games last season, and they’ve topped the 50-win threshold twice in the last 3 years. They didn’t add Washington or Gafford until more than halfway through the 2023-24 campaign, so I’m excited to see what this roster can do with a full training camp under its belt.

The challenge for Dallas will be maintaining health, especially with their reliance on Luka. The addition of Irving a couple of years ago added offensive firepower, but the team struggled to find consistency defensively. If they can tighten up on that end, the over 49.5 looks achievable. At +115, they’re a clear frontrunner in the division.

Best Bet: Over 49.5 Wins (-120) – With Doncic healthy, the Mavericks should be a force in the Western Conference, pushing for both a top playoff seed and a Southwest Division title.

Memphis Grizzlies

• Division Odds: +260
• Win Total: O/U 47.5 (-110/-110)
• To Make the Playoffs: Yes (-225), No (+180)
• Play-In Odds: +150

The Grizzlies are poised for a bounce-back season after falling flat a season ago. The combination of the Ja Morant suspension and an incredible rash of injuries resulted in Memphis winning just 27 games last season after winning 51 in the previous campaign. If Morant can stay on the floor and the supporting cast can enjoy better health, this should clearly be among the most-improved clubs in basketball next term.

Morant’s off-the-court issues may always pop up again, but here’s hoping he’s put his troubles behind him. When he’s on the floor, Ja is one of the game’s most electrifying talents, and he’s an offensive force capable of carrying the Grizzlies. Two years ago, Morant averaged north of 26 points and 8 assists per game, and there’s still room for growth in the 25-year-old’s game. Health has been another problem, however, as Morant has never played more than 67 games in any of his first 5 NBA seasons.

Around Morant, the Grizz have assembled a terrific roster laden with secondary stars and quality role players. Jaren Jackson Jr. took advantage of Morant’s absence and averaged a career-high 22.5 points per game last season while supplying his standard elite rim protection. Desmond Bane averaged nearly 24 points per game while dealing with his own health trouble, while it’ll be fun to see Morant and Marcus Smart playing alongside one another in this backcourt.

The Grizzlies’ biggest offseason addition was rookie center Zach Edey, who won just about every individual and team accolade imaginable during his standout collegiate career at Purdue. Scouts were divided on whether the 7’4″, 300-pound behemoth’s game would translate to the NBA level, but Memphis was apparently sold enough on his potential to make him the No. 9 overall pick in this year’s draft. Edey will immediately slide into the starting center role vacated by Steven Adams, who was traded to Houston in the middle of last year.

With Jackson Jr. and Edey patrolling the paint and Smart hounding ball-handlers on the perimeter, the Grizzlies are likely to be one of the stingiest defensive teams in the league this season. As is the case with every team, Memphis’ success this coming year will depend on whether they can keep their core healthy.

With a win total of 47.5, the Grizzlies will need to maintain their defensive dominance while ensuring they stay healthy through the long NBA season. Nevertheless, Memphis is still a team to watch in the Southwest Division race, and their +260 odds to win the Southwest offer substantial value.

Best Bet: To Win the Southwest Division (+260) -- Memphis has all the makings of a dominant regular-season side if they can keep their star players on the floor. 

New Orleans Pelicans

• Division Odds: +380
• Win Total: O/U 46.5 (+100/-120)
• To Make the Playoffs: Yes (-170), No (+140)
• Play-In Odds: +135

New Orleans enters the season with high hopes as Zion Williamson aims to stay healthy and fulfill his superstar potential. The Pelicans boast an exciting mix of youth and veteran talent, with Brandon Ingram continuing to emerge as one of the league’s top forwards. Their depth makes them a dangerous playoff contender, but it all hinges on Williamson’s ability to stay on the court.

Last season, Williamson played a career-high 70 games. He’s always going to face injury concerns given his unique 6’6″, 290-pound frame, but he’s one of the NBA’s most dominant scorers when he’s fit. The Pels made a few splashy moves this offseason, none splashier than the trade to acquire Dejounte Murray from the Atlanta Hawks. Murray is a terrific defensive guard whose offensive game has developed nicely in recent years. Best of all, the Pelicans didn’t have to gut their roster in order to get him. In addition to a couple of future first-round picks, New Orleans sent Larry Nance Jr., Dyson Daniels, and spare parts back to Atlanta.

While the starting unit is loaded on paper, I do have questions about New Orleans’ depth. The Pelicans also lost longtime starting center Jonas Valanciunas in free agency, and it’s unclear who will start in his place. Veteran journeyman Daniel Theis looks like the most likely candidate, but that’s a pretty significant downgrade. The Pels will likely rely on some small-ball lineups featuring Williamson at center surrounded by shooting in Ingram, Murray, CJ McCollum, and Trey Murphy III.

With a win total of 46.5, the Pelicans’ ceiling is high. They’ll need strong contributions from their supporting cast – including Ingram and McCollum – but the over looks realistic if Williamson can play a full season. If they fall prey to injuries again, they may find themselves battling in the Play-In Tournament.

Best Bet: To Reach the Play-In Tournament (+135) – New Orleans' roster has plenty of question marks, and we'll see if they address their glaring lack of size before the trade deadline. This looks like a borderline Play-In team, so I like the +135 odds here.

Houston Rockets

• Division Odds: +800
• Win Total: O/U 43.5 (-115/-105)
• To Make the Playoffs: Yes (+120), No (-145)
• Play-In Odds: +125

The Houston Rockets are on the rise, with a promising young core led by Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith Jr. After making significant strides last season, Houston could make their first real push for the playoffs in several years. Their 43.5 win total signals that oddsmakers expect improvement, but the question remains whether their young stars can compete consistently against top-tier teams in the West.

Houston has undergone an extremely patient rebuilding process since the James Harden trade back in 2021. The Rockets have since stockpiled an incredible warchest of talented young players, with rookie Reed Sheppard joining the party after arriving as the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft. Houston has thus far resisted the urge to package several of their prospects in a trade for a big-name star, but such a deal could come down the pike this year.

While steady veterans like Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Steven Adams will factor into things, the Rockets’ ultimate upside hinges on whether any of their young players develop into superstars. Sengun – who averaged career-highs with 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 5 assists per game last season – is likely the closest thing the Rockets have to an All-Star. The real key could be Jalen Green, who flashed his sky-high potential en route to winning Western Conference Player of the Month in March. With Sengun sidelined by injury for most of the month, Green averaged a robust 27.7 points on extremely efficient shooting from the field. Consistency has always been Green’s primary issue, however.

Houston might be a solid playoff team in the Eastern Conference, but playing in the West presents plenty of challenges. Houston does have the potential to be a terrific defensive team with pests like Amen Thompson and Tari Eason patrolling the perimeter, but will they be able to score consistently enough to hang tough with some of the NBA’s juggernauts?

Bettors should monitor how quickly the Rockets’ young pieces gel, but the value at +120 to make the playoffs is intriguing. However, the Western Conference is stacked, so Houston will need a strong start to avoid falling into the Play-In Tournament mix.

Best Bet: To Make the Play-In Tournament (+125) – The Rockets’ young stars and offseason improvements should help them get into the Play-In mix.

San Antonio Spurs

• Division Odds: +2800
• Win Total: O/U 36.5 (-115/-115)
• To Make the Playoffs: Yes (+380), No (-525)
• Play-In Odds: +275

The Spurs continue their rebuild, but with Victor Wembanyama entering his sophomore year, San Antonio’s future looks bright. While they may not be competitive for the division title this season, Wembanyama gives the franchise a generational talent to build around. Expectations should be tempered, though, as the Spurs will likely experience growing pains while their young core develops.

Like the Rockets, the Spurs have spent the past few years rebuilding. Wembanyama is certainly better than any prospect Houston has – because he’s better than any prospect any team has – and they’re starting to build out the roster around him. The addition of veteran point guard Chris Paul gives San Antonio some much-needed playmaking it was sorely lacking last season. The 39-year-old is well past the prime of his career, however, and we’ll see if he can hold up over the course of a full season as the Spurs’ starting point guard.

San Antonio has a few other intriguing youngsters in Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell, while rookie Stephon Castle should provide a defensive boost on the wing. The Spurs also boast a couple of professional forwards in Keldon Johnson and Harrison Barnes, so this team has the skeleton of a potential contender. Wembanyama looks ready to continue his ascent to superstardom, while Vassell is quietly turning into one of the league’s more underrated secondary scoring talents.

A win total of 36.5 may seem achievable for a team with as much potential as San Antonio, but it’s hard to envision them competing with the top teams in the West just yet. That said, they’ll be worth watching just for the Wemby factor. He finished as the NBA Defensive Player of the Year runner-up to Rudy Gobert last season, and it’s just a matter of time until he starts to dominate the league on a nightly basis.

Best Bet: Over 36.5 Wins (-115) – This team could surprise some people, especially if Wembanyama becomes a bona fide MVP candidate in his second season.

Who Will Win the Southwest Division?

The Southwest Division should be one of the most competitive in basketball. The Mavericks and Grizzlies may well be 2 of the best teams in the entire league, while the Rockets and Spurs are on the fast track back to relevance. The primary wild card is the Pelicans, though New Orleans certainly has enough high-end talent to punch a playoff ticket.

In the end, I’m a buyer in what the Grizzlies are selling. I’d expect Morant to be on his best behavior this season with Adam Silver watching closely, and this team is a potential title contender if they can stay healthy. That’s a massive “if” considering how downtrodden they were last year, but I’m optimistic. Memphis will edge out Dallas to win the Southwest.

Best Overall Bet: Memphis Grizzlies to Win the Southwest Division (+260)
Sleeper Bet: Houston Rockets to Make Playoffs (+120)

Recent NBA Southwest Division Winners