2024-25 NBA Southwest Division Odds and Predictions

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The NBA All-Star Weekend is upon us, which means it’s time to start looking ahead. The 2024-25 regular season only has about two months to go, and playoff races will heat up following the break.

The Southwest Division is arguably the best division in the league this season top to bottom. Three teams currently have winning records, while the San Antonio Spurs will look to make a push following their trade for De’Aaron Fox earlier this month.

The lowly New Orleans Pelicans won’t be making the postseason this year, but they still have some intriguing young players around which to build moving forward.

The reigning Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks opened the season as the favorites in the Southwest Division, but injuries and a rather unexpected trade have shifted the odds considerably. The Mavs went from a contender in the West to plummeting down the boards for winning the NBA Championship.

The Memphis Grizzlies have taken over as the odds-on favorite to win the Southwest Division. They’re also considered to be a real contender in the Western Conference once the Playoffs begin.

Although the Houston Rockets have exceeded most preseason expectations, they still sit far behind the Grizzlies with the sportsbooks. Can the Rockets surge to the top of the Division and overtake Memphis?

Let’s take a closer look at the latest NBA odds and make our NBA Southwest Division predictions.

2024-25 NBA Southwest Division Odds

Check out the latest NBA odds for the Southwest Division:

The Memphis Grizzlies opened as a solid contender at +260 but have since surged to -225, making them the clear favorites to win the division according to the top sports betting sites. The biggest riser is the Houston Rockets, who started the season at +800 and have climbed to +190 thanks to a stellar first half of the season.

On the other hand, the Mavericks have seen a stunning collapse, falling from +115 to +15000, knocking them virtually out of contention entirely. Thanks, Nico Harrison! The Spurs and Pelicans are non-factors with odds of +50000 apiece.

NBA Southwest Division Teams

Let’s take a closer look at the teams competing in the Southwest Division:

Memphis Grizzlies (-225)

The Memphis Grizzlies have risen back to the top of the division this season, thanks to the return of Ja Morant and their elite defense. Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to anchor the paint, while Desmond Bane provides much-needed offensive firepower. The Grizzlies were an injury-riddled mess last season, but they’ve enjoyed much better health so far in 2024-25.

While Morant, Jackson, and Bane are All-Star-caliber players, this team also happens to be arguably the deepest in the league. Memphis has a boatload of young talent, and that depth will come in handy if the injury bug comes back to bite them in the second half of the year. Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke give the Grizzlies a versatile tandem at center, while Luke Kennard, Santi Aldama, Vince Williams Jr., and Scotty Pippen Jr. are all consistent contributors off the bench.

Whether they’re capable of making a run in the playoffs remains to be seen. This is still a fairly young and inexperienced roster, though they did advance all the way to the Western Conference Finals just a couple of years ago. Morant’s health will be key, while Jackson’s ability to contribute at both ends of the floor makes them dangerous.

Memphis runs at the league’s fastest pace, and they’re also one of the most efficient offensive teams in the sport. They’re a nightmare of a matchup for opposing defenses, but they still have some things to iron out on the defensive end if they’re going to seriously challenge for a title.

The Grizzlies’ -225 odds to win the Southwest Division don’t offer much profit potential, so I’d shy away from betting on them at that number as of now.

Houston Rockets (+190)

The Houston Rockets have been one of the biggest surprises of the season. Their young core, led by Amen Thompson, Jalen Green, and Alperen Sengun, has developed faster than expected, and their strong defensive play has helped them stay competitive. At +190, they are the best value bet in the division, especially if Memphis stumbles in the final stretch of the season.

Just 2.5 games separate the Rockets from the Grizzlies in the standings. Houston was atop the division as recently as a couple of weeks ago, but a brutal schedule leading into the All-Star break proved costly. The Rockets have played 12 games in the last 19 days leading into the hiatus, and they’ve lost 7 of their last 9 games overall.

Their mettle will be tested coming out of the break. Young teams generally struggle with consistency, but Ime Udoka has done a tremendous job of getting the very most out of his roster to this point. That the Rockets are one of the league’s stingiest defenses while also having an incredibly youthful group is a testament to Udoka’s coaching prowess.

The offense will be the key that determines how far this team can go. Injuries to Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith Jr. haven’t helped matters, and inconsistency from Green and Sengun can lead to scoring droughts. Sengun’s form has been particularly erratic, which is a bit of a surprise considering he’s been the cornerstone of the Rockets’ rebuilding efforts over the past couple of years.

Thompson has really come into his own in his 2nd year as a pro, and he looks like the future face of the franchise. His all-around game makes him an awfully unique talent, and he’s fully capable of dominating a game on both ends of the floor despite still only being 21 years old.

At +190, Houston is a viable value bet to overtake Memphis and win the division. The Rockets have also crucially clinched the tiebreaker over the Grizzlies this season, so Houston would win the Southwest if the teams happen to finish with the same record at season’s end.

Dallas Mavericks (+15000)

The Dallas Mavericks have had a disastrous season, with injuries and inconsistent play pushing them to the fringes of the playoff picture. The Mavs’ quest for a 2nd straight Western Conference crown was dealt a likely-fatal blow earlier this month when they inexplicably traded franchise icon Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a future first-round pick. Davis played one half of basketball in his team debut before going down with a serious adductor injury that could keep him sidelined for the rest of the season.

The trade was a calamitous decision even before Davis got hurt, and they’ll now be lucky to make it into the postseason at all. Dallas still has some useful pieces in Kyrie Irving, PJ Washington, and others, but they’ve also been beset by other injuries. In addition to Davis, the Mavs will be without Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford for an extended period.

Dallas still has a winning record at 30-26, but that puts them 7 games south of the Grizzlies. Given the state of the roster, it’s tough to imagine the Mavs will be able to make up that kind of ground in a small 2-month span. They’d have to win at a clip far greater than they have to this point, while both Memphis and Houston would have to endure extended slumps. It’s not impossible, but it’s not likely enough to make the +15000 Southwest Division odds all that tempting, either.

New Orleans Pelicans (+50000)

The New Orleans Pelicans started the season as a mid-tier contender at +380, but injuries to Zion Williamson and inconsistent play have relegated their Southwest Division odds all the way to +50000. Some online betting sites won’t even offer odds on the Pels to win the division considering they’re about 30 games under the .500 mark.

This team has talent when healthy, but health has thwarted their efforts. Herbert Jones and Dejounte Murray are both out for the season, while Brandon Ingram was traded to the Toronto Raptors prior to the deadline. I’m still stubbornly bullish on the Pelicans’ long-term future, but they’re bound for the lottery this season.

San Antonio Spurs (+50000)

The San Antonio Spurs expected Victor Wembanyama to carry them to new heights in his second season, but they’ve been inconsistent to this point. Gregg Popovich has been sidelined for several months after suffering a stroke earlier this season, though he’s still expected to return to the sidelines at some point.

Earlier this month, San Antonio swung a blockbuster deal to acquire De’Aaron Fox from the Sacramento Kings. Fox will form a nice partnership with Wembanyama, though this team is still likely a year or 2 away from making a serious run. They still have an outside shot at qualifying for the postseason this year, but they have next to no hope of leapfrogging 3 other teams to win the division.

NBA Southwest Division Predictions

At this stage of the season, Memphis (-225) is the safest NBA Pick to win the division. Their roster depth and defensive prowess give them a major edge over Houston. However, if you’re looking for a value bet, Houston at +190 is worth considering. Their young core is improving, and if they continue their hot streak, they could push Memphis for the top spot.

As for longshots, the Dallas Mavericks at +15000 are not worth considering given their collapse, and the Pelicans and Spurs are no longer in the race.

Bet: Houston Rockets (+190)

Recent NBA Southwest Division Winners