2024-25 NBA Western Conference Odds and Predictions

The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing, and the Western Conference race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. The Oklahoma City Thunder appear to be the team to beat, and their odds to win the conference have improved considerably since the preseason. That’s no small feat considering OKC was the preseason favorite at +350 NBA odds.

With a few other potential contenders facing challenges and emerging challengers making some waves, now is the perfect time to revisit the odds and assess the potential winners.

For a broader picture of the NBA, check out our NBA Championship odds and predictions or see how the Eastern Conference is stacking up.

2024-25 NBA Western Conference Odds

Check out the latest NBA Western Conference odds courtesy of the best sports betting sites:

NBA Team	Preseason Odds	January Odds
OKC Thunder	+350	+130
Denver Nuggets	+400	+600
Dallas Mavericks	+450	+700
Minnesota Timberwolves	+450	+1800
Los Angeles Lakers	+1400	+1800
Phoenix Suns	+1400	+1700
Golden State Warriors	+1800	+2500
Memphis Grizzlies	+1800	+1000
New Orleans Pelicans	+2000	+90000
Los Angeles Clippers	+2200	+1100
Sacramento Kings	+2500	+3500
Houston Rockets	+5000	+2200
San Antonio Spurs	+6500	+30000
Portland Trail Blazers	+50000	+90000
Utah Jazz	+50000	+90000

The Thunder have emerged as the clear favorites, improving from +350 to +130 as their young stars continue to shine. The Denver Nuggets, once neck and neck with OKC, have slipped to +600, suggesting that competition in the West has intensified. Meanwhile, teams like the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers are climbing the rankings, making them serious contenders for a deep playoff run.

NBA Western Conference Favorites

The following NBA teams are considered the favorites to win the NBA Western Conference:

Oklahoma City Thunder (+130)

The Thunder have firmly taken the driver’s seat in the Western Conference race. Led by a legit MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City is likely to finish as the conference’s top seed for the 2nd straight season. The offseason acquisitions of Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso added some veteran stability to one of the league’s youngest rosters, and their depth is now a major strength.

Defense is the Thunder’s calling card under head coach Mark Daigneault. Oklahoma City is yielding 101.2 points per 100 possessions on the season. Not only is that the best mark in the NBA, but it’s over 4 points per 100 possessions better than the next-best defense, the Houston Rockets (105.5). If they’re able to keep it up, the Thunder’s defensive rating would be the best we’ve seen from any team since the 2019-20 Milwaukee Bucks (100.6).

Oklahoma City has dealt with some injuries. Chet Holmgren has missed considerable time with a fractured hip, while Hartenstein and Caruso have also missed a handful of games. As is the case with every team, health will be paramount to the Thunder’s chances of reaching the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012. One issue is the current +130 odds to win the West don’t offer much upside, and a Finals trip is hardly a guarantee given the depth of the conference as a whole.

Denver Nuggets (+600)

The Denver Nuggets won a championship a couple of years ago, and it felt at the time as though that would be the first of many. Denver will always be in the mix for as long as Nikola Jokic is in his prime, but the rest of the Nuggets’ roster has weathered a bit since that championship. Useful depth pieces like Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have left for greener pastures, and the salary cap has prevented the Nuggets from adequately replacing either of them.

Jokic appears headed for his 4th career MVP award this season. He seems to get better with each passing year, and so far this season he’s averaging 30.1 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.9 assists. Jokic is also shooting a blistering 47.5 percent from 3-point range. Not only is that the highest mark of his career, but it leads the entire NBA.

Unfortunately, I’m not sure the Nuggets have enough depth to really challenge some of the league’s true contenders. Denver’s offense slows to a halt whenever Jokic hits the bench, and Jamal Murray has struggled through one of the worst seasons of his career. The addition of Russell Westbrook seems to have given the team an unexpected jolt, but we know Russ is a candidate to disappear once the postseason rolls around.

Denver is worth a flier at +600 simply because of Jokic, but I have a hard time imagining this team surviving the gaunlet of the Western Conference playoffs.

Memphis Grizzlies (+1000)

Climbing from +1800 to +1000, the Memphis Grizzlies are turning heads. Ja Morant’s return has been pivotal, and their defensive intensity makes them a tough opponent for any team. They’ve found their stride just in time to challenge for the top spot in the West. Memphis was completely derailed by injuries a season ago, but they’ve vaulted their way back into contention thanks to a cleaner bill of health in 2024-25.

Staying healthy is hardly predictable, but this team is dangerous. Morant is the headliner, though Jaren Jackson Jr. has a legitimate All-Star claim as one of the league’s best 2-way big men. Unlike the Nuggets, the Grizzlies are also blessed with incredible depth. Memphis added 2 of the league’s best rookies in Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells to what was already a beefy core of talent.

Santi Aldama and Luke Kennard give Memphis a couple of legitimate scoring options off the bench, while Marcus Smart is still a top-tier defender when healthy. Having Smart available for the playoffs may go a long way toward determining whether the Grizz can get past teams like the Thunder, Mavericks, and Nuggets, who all feature high-usage guards.

At +1000, the Grizzlies are the best value of any team given the composition of their roster and the fact that nobody beyond Oklahoma City truly stands out.

Dallas Mavericks (+700)

The 2024-25 season for the reigning Western Conference champions hasn’t really gone according to plan. The Dallas Mavericks are just 23-20 around the halfway point of the campaign, and injuries have played an unfortunate role. Both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are among the players to have missed considerable time with injuries, while 2nd-year center Dereck Lively II will miss over a month with a foot issue of his own.

Even with a rotating cast of characters, Jason Kidd has done a fine job of keeping Dallas above the .500 mark. If the season ended today, though, the Mavs would be the No. 7 seed and hosting a play-in game. The conference as a whole is still fairly jumbled, though, and Dallas has more than enough time to climb their way back into the top 6.

Whether they can make a 2nd straight run to the Finals will depend entirely on Luka’s availability. Doncic eventually wore down in the Finals after leading Dallas through the West, and perhaps his long injury layoff will be a blessing in disguise. General manager Nico Harrison has made quite a few shrewd moves to upgrade the Mavs’ roster over the past couple of seasons, so this team is hardly a 2-man show. Daniel Gafford, PJ Washington, Quentin Grimes, Klay Thompson, and Spencer Dinwiddie are all new faces that give this team an impressive amount of depth.

Doncic, Irving, and Washington were particularly impressive when the Mavs upset the Thunder in the 2nd round of the playoffs last year. Oklahoma City has also improved since then, but Dallas has enough talent to beat anyone in a 7-game series. Do not sleep on the Mavericks at +700 to win the conference for the 2nd year in a row.

Best Western Conference Betting Value

The following teams are our NBA picks for the best betting value to win the NBA Western Conference:

Los Angeles Clippers (+1100)

At +1100, the Los Angeles Clippers are an intriguing option for bettors. This team is off to a promising 24-18 start despite the fact that Kawhi Leonard has missed the vast majority of the season due to injury. Most experts wrote the Clippers off as contenders after Paul George skipped town to sign a lucrative free-agent deal with the Philadelphia 76ers last summer.

However, head coach Ty Lue has done an impressive job with a roster full of new faces. James Harden and Ivica Zubac have formed an impressive partnership, while Norman Powell has been a better replacement for George than anyone could’ve expected. Leonard recently returned to the lineup, as well. If Kawhi is able to play in the postseason, the Clippers will be a team nobody wants to face. That said, depending on Leonard to stay healthy hasn’t been a fruitful endeavor in recent years.

If Kawhi goes down for the season at any point, you can essentially write the Clippers off as legitimate contenders. They’re still a well-coached team with some talent, but they’ll struggle to keep up with teams like Oklahoma City, Dallas, and Memphis offensively if Leonard is missing from the lineup.

Houston Rockets (+2200)

The Houston Rockets were an afterthought coming into the season with +5000 odds to win the conference. Those odds have been slashed in half at the halfway point of the season, however. Houston is currently 2nd to OKC in the conference at 28-14. This is one of the league’s youngest rosters, yet Ime Udoka has done a terrific job of turning things around since taking over for Stephen Silas prior to last season.

Houston’s roster is loaded with young talent, and many have speculated about the possibility that they could look to turn some of those young pieces into a more established star via trade. Houston’s brass has resisted the urge to push their chips into the middle of the table so far, but their promising start could mean their championship window opened a little earlier than expected.

Players like Jalen Green and Amen Thompson have made major leaps this season, while there are useful supporting pieces in Fred VanVleet, Tari Eason, and Dillon Brooks in the mix. Alperen Sengun hasn’t quite made the leap to superstardom that many expected, but his presence on the inside does still make Houston a very difficult team to guard. The Rockets are also 2nd in the league in defensive rating, trailing only the Thunder.

Can the Rockets find enough offense to push for a title? The talent speaks for itself, but I do think they’re probably still a year or 2 away from really pushing the Thunder for the top spot in the West. That could change if the Rockets swing for the fences with a major trade, but that odesn’t look all that likely to happen as of now. The Rockets’ winning record makes their +2200 odds to win the West look appealing, but this is really just a flier at this point.

Top NBA Western Conference Longshot

The Sacramento Kings (+3500) got off to an inauspicious start, which led to the team’s shocking decision to part ways with former NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown. The Kings thought the offseason signing of DeMar DeRozan would vault them into contention, but the team was hovering well below .500 with Brown patrolling the sidelines when he was fired at the end of December.

Interim coach Doug Christie seems to have lit a fire under his team, however. Sacramento is 9-2 since Christie took the job on an interim basis, a stretch that includes impressive wins over contenders like Houston, Boston, Memphis, and Dallas.

The Kings’ lack of depth could be an issue. The starting unit is terrific, but don’t be surprised if the Kings try to make a move to address their lackluster bench at some point before the deadline. They could use a rim protector behind Domantas Sabonis, while another spot-up shooter like Corey Kispert or Malik Beasley could come in handy.

Sacramento certainly isn’t the most likely team to win the West, but they’re better than their 22-20 record would lead you to believe.

2024-25 NBA Western Conference Predictions

The Oklahoma City Thunder look poised to claim the Western Conference title, with their combination of young talent and elite performances setting them apart. However, don’t count out the Dallas Mavericks or Memphis Grizzlies, who both have the experience and depth to make a strong playoff push.

If you’re hunting for value, the Clippers, Kings, and Rockets offer excellent opportunities. My least favorite bet of that bunch would be the Clippers given the constant uncertainty surrounding Kawhi’s health, but Houston and Sacramento are a couple of up-and-comers capable of making noise once the postseason rolls around.

For more insights, be sure to check out our latest updates on the Northwest Division, Pacific Division, and MVP odds to round out your betting strategy.

Recent NBA Western Conference Winners

Year	Team	Record
2023-24	Dallas Mavericks	50-32
2022-23	Denver Nuggets	53-29
2021-22	Golden State Warriors	53-29
2020-21	Phoenix Suns	51-21
2019-20	Los Angeles Lakers	52-19
2018-19	Golden State Warriors	57-25
2017-18	Golden State Warriors	58-24
2016-17	Golden State Warriors	67-15
2015-16	Golden State Warriors	73-9
2014-15	Golden State Warriors	67-15