2025 Men’s NCAA South Regional Odds and Predictions

The 2025 NCAA South Regional appears to be the most loaded segment of the bracket. Auburn checks in as the No. 1 seed, but they’re only an even-money favorite to advance through the region and into the Final Four. Duke, for example, is a -140 favorite in the East Region, so oddsmakers think the Tigers will face a more difficult path to San Antonio.

The South Region features other legitimate college hoops bluebloods in Michigan State and North Carolina, while longtime tournament stalwarts like Creighton, Louisville, and San Diego State are also in the mix.

Before we break down the odds and top contenders, make sure to check out the latest College Basketball Championship odds and get expert College Basketball Picks to stay ahead of the action.

Where Is The NCAA South Regional Being Played?

The first- and second-round games for the South Regional will take place at several different locations. Auburn, for example, will kick off its tournament run with a matchup against either Alabama State or St. Francis (PA) in Lexington, Kentucky. A few other games will go down in Denver, Colorado, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and in Cleveland, Ohio.

NCAA South Regional Final

The NCAA South Regional Final will go down in Atlanta on March 29th or 30th. The winner will advance to the Final Four, which will happen in San Antonio, Texas, on the first weekend in April.

NCAA South Regional Odds

Check out the latest Men’s NCAA South Regional odds courtesy of the best sports betting sites:

At first glance, Auburn (#1) is the clear favorite, while Michigan State (#2) and Iowa State (#3) offer solid value as top contenders. This is a deep field, however, as all of Marquette, Louisville, Creighton, and New Mexico are fully capable of making deep runs of their own.

For expert analysis, check out the best handicappers section.

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Men’s NCAA South Regional Favorites

The following teams are considered the favorites to win the NCAA South Regional:

Auburn Tigers (Even)

Auburn enters the NCAA South Region as the top seed and favorite to win. The SEC was a remarkably loaded conference this season, with 14 of the league’s 16 teams ultimately advancing to the NCAA Tournament. That’s a record, and it’ll be a tough record to ever beat.

Bruce Pearl’s squad finished the season at 28-5 and first in the SEC regular-season standings. However, Auburn was ultimately upset by Tennessee in the semis of the SEC Tournament, which was a bit of a surprise. Free throws proved to be the difference. Tennessee converted 25 of their 27 attempts from the charity stripe (92.6 percent). Auburn, meanwhile, went just 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) from the line.

In fact, the Tigers will enter March Madness in ragged form overall. 3 of Auburn’s 5 losses for the entire season have come in their last 4 games. All 3 defeats came against ranked foes – No. 8 Tennessee, No. 7 Alabama, and No. 22 Texas A&M – but momentum often carries over into the Big Dance. If that happens, Auburn may run the risk of an early exit.

The Tigers are led by Johni Broome, who was just named as a unanimous selection to the AP All-American team. Broome and Duke’s Cooper Flagg were the only unanimous selections. Broome averaged a robust 18.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, and better than 2 blocked shots per game, and slowing him down will be a tough test for any of Auburn’s foes in the tournament.

Despite their No. 1 seed, the selection committee didn’t do the Tigers any favors. Auburn will have to face either Creighton or Louisville in the second round, while a date with a Michigan team that just won the Big 10 tournament looms in the Sweet Sixteen if they’re lucky enough to advance through the first weekend.

Auburn is a deserving top seed, but their tough draw gives me pause on their even-money odds to win the South Region.

Michigan State Spartans (+450)

Tom Izzo’s squad is always dangerous in March. Michigan State has the experience and depth to challenge Auburn for the top spot, and they have the benefit of entering the competition in solid form. The Spartans finished in first place in their conference at 27-6, though they fell at the hands of Wisconsin in the semis of the Big 10 Tournament last weekend.

Regardless, fading the Spartans in March has typically been a losing endeavor over the years. Izzo has routinely managed to get a lot out of his teams at this time of year, even if he isn’t armed with an elite roster. This year, however, he has the horses to make a deep run.

Michigan State will kick off their tourney with a date with No. 15 Bryant in Cleveland on Friday. From there, they’ll face the winner of the clash between No. 7 Marquette and No. 10 New Mexico, which promises to be one of the most compelling first-round matchups. If they get through to the second weekend, the Spartans are likely to face either Iowa State or Ole Miss in the Sweet Sixteen.

The Spartans check in at No. 8 in the KenPom rankings. The only team in the South above them is, of course, Auburn (No. 4). Interestingly enough, just 2 of Michigan State’s 6 losses this season came against ranked teams. They fell to then-No. 1 Kansas at the beginning of the season, while the aforementioned Wisconsin setback was the other. Their track record is terrific overall, but they have shown the habit of playing down to lesser foes on occasion.

In the tournament, though, I wouldn’t bank on that happening again, which makes the Spartans’ +450 odds to win the region attackable.

Iowa State Cyclones (+550)

Iowa State’s balanced offense and tough defensive play give them a legitimate shot at taking down higher-seeded teams and securing a Final Four berth. The Cyclones finished the season 24-9 overall, including 13-7 in Big 12 play. They were upset by BYU in the conference tournament last weekend, though, and they’re another team in shaky form heading into the Big Dance.

Iowa State has lost 4 times in their last 7 games, a stretch that includes a pair of defeats to BYU as well as a loss to another No. 1 seed, Houston.

Iowa State is a KenPom darling, so you can make a case they’re going undervalued by both oddsmakers and the general public. KenPom has the Cyclones as the 10th-best team in the country, which isn’t necessarily reflected by their No. 3 seed. Iowa State swept Arizona in league play, which is no small feat. This team can put points on the board, which makes them awfully dangerous. They scored at least 80 points in 18 different games this season.

This program doesn’t have a long track record of success in March, but that isn’t necessarily an indicator of future success. The Cyclones have appeared in the Sweet Sixteen twice in the past 3 years, but the school hasn’t advanced to the Elite Eight since 2000. The injury to veteran guard Keshon Gilbert won’t help their chances, but I am a fan of their +550 odds to raise eyebrows and escape the South Region alive.

Texas A&M Aggies (+1600)

A dark horse with a solid interior presence, Texas A&M has the potential to pull off some big wins in the NCAA Bracket South Regional. The Aggies are a legitimate force on the boards, and their ability to generate second-chance points will be a key to how far they can go.

A&M had an offensive rebound rate of 42 percent this season, which was the top mark in the nation. They’re not the best shooting team, but that may not matter quite as much given their proficiency in securing their own misses and getting subsequent opportunities.

Unfortunately, they may not be able to score consistently or efficiently enough to get past higher-powered offensive teams like Auburn or Iowa State. Defense wins championships, but it’s hard to win if you can’t score.

The Aggies may be the No. 4 seed, but that offensive ineptitude may explain why they face such long +1600 odds to win the South Regional. This is another team in shaky form, as the Aggies have lost 5 of their last 7 outings heading into the NCAA Tournament.

Men’s NCAA South Regional Betting Value

The following men’s college basketball teams offer betting value based on their current NCAA South Regional odds:

Michigan Wolverines (+1800)

At +1800, Michigan has the talent to make a deep run. Their guard play is strong, and they can beat anyone on a good shooting night. Head coach Dusty May has done an excellent job of attracting talent to Ann Arbor, especially via the transfer portal. The Wolverines went just 8-24 in a disastrous season under Juwan Howard last year, but they’ve improved considerably to 25-9 with May in charge this year.

Michigan’s size will be an issue for opponents. The Wolverines have a pair of 7-footers in Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, and most teams at the college level are considerably smaller in the frontcourt. Goldin averaged 16.7 points and nearly 7 rebounds per game in his first season since transferring from Florida Atlantic. Wolf does a little bit of everything. The Yale transfer averaged 13.1 points, 9.8 rebounds, nearly 4 assists, and better than a block per game in 34 games on the year.

The Wolverines do get a bit sloppy with the basketball, which could be their undoing in this competition. Every possession counts in the NCAA Tournament, yet Michigan finished the season with one of the highest turnover rates in America. Still, the +1800 odds on the Wolverines to advance out of the South Regional offer quite a bit of upside.

Marquette Golden Eagles (+2200)

With a high-powered offense and a coach known for March success, Marquette presents intriguing value as a mid-seeded sleeper. While Michigan is a turnover machine, Marquette is the polar opposite. The Golden Eagles finished with the 8th-best turnover rate in the country, while they’re 13th in forcing turnovers. Turnover differential can be massive in closely contested games, and Marquette almost always wins that battle.

Marquette plays with a heavy focus on 3-point shooting, but they’re not actually proficient in that regard. They finished just 244th in the country in 3-point percentage. While heavy 3-point volume can win you a game, it helps if you can actually convert them at a halfway decent clip.

As is the case with several teams in this region, the Golden Eagles aren’t entering March Madness on a high note. They ended their season by losing 6 of their final 10 games, and they haven’t beaten a quality team since the beginning of January. Marquette has the makings of a tough out, but they don’t quite pass the eye test.

The Top NCAA South Regional Longshot

If you’re looking for a potential Cinderella to back from the South Region, the New Mexico Lobos at +6600 is an interesting pick. They have an explosive offense and could upset some higher-seeded teams along the way.

The Lobos won the Mountain West regular-season title before faltering in the conference tourney against Boise State. A 26-7 overall record is still awfully impressive, though they’re hardly battle-tested. New Mexico hasn’t faced a ranked team since a matchup against then-No. 22 St. John’s way back in the middle of November. The Lobos dropped that game by 14 points, as well.

This is a defense-first outfit, and they’re ranked near the top of the country in most KenPom defensive categories. They also play a breakneck style. We don’t often see successful defensive teams that also play at a fast pace, so fatigue could be a factor for the Lobos’ opponents in March.

This team is sneaky, and the +6600 odds to win the South mean you’ll make an absolute killing if they can shock the world.

NCAA South Regional Predictions

While Auburn is the clear favorite, Michigan State and Iowa State have the experience and roster depth to compete. Auburn is the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, but they’re hardly an unbeatable juggernaut.

The Tigers aren’t a bad bet at +100, but I think we can hunt value in a region with so many terrific teams. My favorite bet of the bunch is Michigan at +1800. It sounds simple, but size matters. The Wolverines have the chops to make a real run. They’re not a safe bet by any means, but the risk is baked into the +1800 odds to advance to the Final Four.

If you want a safer bet, I’d roll with Michigan State at +450. Izzo’s success in March speaks for itself, and he clearly hasn’t lost that magic at this more advanced stage of his career. If you want higher upside, roll with Michigan at +1800.

Bet: Michigan State (+450)