2024-25 NFL Coaching Carousel: Which Head Coaches Get Fired Next?

The NFL coaching carousel refers to the comings and goings of head coaches in the league. Typically, it’s due to head coaches being fired for not meeting the expectations of the front office or the owner. Last year, we saw eight coaches get axed during and after the season.

This year, we’ve already seen three head coaches get axed during the regular season. In fact, all three coaches didn’t even see December. Additionally, there are plenty more head coaches on the proverbial hot seat.

With that said, let’s take a deeper dive into these NFL coaching prop bets, courtesy of the best sports betting sites, and make our predictions on which NFL head coaches will get fired between Black Monday and Super Bowl 59.

NFL Coaches Fired Odds

The following is a list of NFL prop bets examining the futures of the following head coaches who are squarely on the hot seat:

Looking at the odds at time of publication, Doug Pederson (Jaguars) and Antonio Pierce (Raiders) are large betting favorites to be fired following the conclusion of the 2024-25 NFL regular season. On the flip side, Nick Sirianni (Eagles) and Jerod Mayo (Patriots) are large odds-on favorites to stay on as the head coach of their respective teams.

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NFL Coaches Fired During the 2024-25 Season

The 2023-24 NFL season concluded with eight head coaches getting fired. You can read more about those coaches in the Black Monday section at the conclusion of the article.

As of this writing, heading into Week 18 of the NFL season, the following head coaches have been fired so far:

Robert Saleh

Saleh didn’t even make it to Halloween as he was fired by Week 6 of the season. He spent a little over three seasons with the New York Jets and finished with a 20-36 record.

Unfortunately, Saleh never saw a winning season with the Jets. Despite having Aaron Rodgers back, New York continued to lose and the team’s front office lost patience with Saleh. Bettors cashed in on Saleh’s +900 odds to be fired first.

The Jets cashed in on an early vacation as they’re going to finish 4-13 on the season. In fact, following Saleh’s firing, New York closed out the season going 2-12.

Dennis Allen

The New Orleans Saints started off the season at 2-0 but then lost seven games in a row. The point of no return for Dennis Allen came in Week 9 when the Saints lost to the Carolina Panthers who are one of the worst teams in the NFL this year.

The Saints were mired in injuries, yet Allen took the bulk of the blame. He started off the season as the odds-on favorite to get fired first. During the preseason, I made the following predictions about Allen:

“If the Saints get off to a slow start, Allen is probably gone by Thanksgiving. However, if they can remain competitive all season and come up short, just like last year, then Allen could get axed on Black Monday.”

Unfortunately for Allen, my prediction came true. They started off hot and then dropped like an anchor in the ocean. In fact, their losing ways didn’t stop after Allen was fired. New Orleans will end up going 5-12 on the season, meaning they went 3-5 following Allen’s departure.

Matt Eberflus

I can’t tell you how many times I’ve shouted for the Chicago Bears to fire Matt Eberflus. The coach came into this season with a 10-24 record and was fired on Black Friday following a pathetic loss to the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving.

The Bears bumbled a game-winning drive to beat the Lions and left football fans speechless with the bonehead execution on their final drive. Well, that also proved to be Eberflus’ final drive as a head coach in Chicago.

This move came a few weeks after the team fired their offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. As I stated during November, Chicago’s problems weren’t because of Waldron. Their problems were due to Caleb Williams and Eberflus.

Following the firing of Eberflus, the Bears continued to lose and will finish out the season losing 11 games in a row, with five of those coming after Chicago axed their head coach.

This franchise has some winning pieces, but the front office and head coaching have been awful the last few years. Where’s Lovie Smith when you need him?

NFL Coaches Fired Predictions

The following is a list of the latest NFL prop bets on which head coaches will be fired following the conclusion of Week 18 and our predictions:

Will Antonio Pierce Coach the Las Vegas Raiders Next Season?

• Yes (+250)
• No (-400)

Following the unceremonious ending to Josh McDaniels tenure with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023, linebackers’ coach Antonio Pierce took over the interim tag as the head coach on Halloween.

Pierce went 5-4 as the interim coach, which included beating the Chiefs on Christmas Day and scoring 61 points on the Chargers for the most points in the team’s history. This led to the Raiders making Pierce the head coach of the team, which the majority of players were behind.

Unfortunately, Pierce’s second season at the helm (first full season) has not gone well at all. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league and will finish 4-13 on the year. They have little in the way of young talent and their veterans want out of town.

This franchise needs a complete reboot and should get it by drafting a QB with a Top 5 pick next year, trading their biggest names, and firing Pierce. It’s not Pierce’s fault that they’re this bad. Sadly, he will be a victim of the overall terrible front office and roster.

Bet: No (-400)

Will Brian Daboll Coach The New York Giants Next Season?

• Yes (+120)
• No (-165)

Brian Daboll was actually my pick as the first head coach to get fired this year. How he is still employed by the New York Giants is a mystery to me. The team will finish 3-13 on the season and need an overhaul in the front office and coaching staff.

To make matters worse, the Giants had the #1 pick in the draft heading into Week 17, and they went out there and beat the Colts who were fighting for a Wild Card spot in the AFC. The win cost them the #1 pick, which is just the cherry on top of this dysfunctional fudge sundae.

There’s no way that Daboll coaches the Giants next year. Personally, I’m hoping he heads back to Buffalo to be an assistant coach or take over as the Offensive Coordinator if Joe Brady gets hired as a head coach this offseason.

Bet: No (-165)

Will Doug Pederson Coach The Jacksonville Jaguars Next Season?

• Yes (+300)
• No (-500)

Heading into the season, this was my prediction for Doug Pederson and the Jacksonville Jaguars:

“Although Pederson has an 18-16 regular season record with the Jags, along with a 42-37-1 record as Philly’s head coach, he’s definitely on the hot seat this season. If the Jaguars fail to make the Playoffs or waste another year of Lawrence’s prime on mediocrity, then Pederson could be out by Black Monday if not sooner.”

Well, the Jaguars will finish with one of the worst records in the NFL this season and a Top 3 draft pick. As talented as Pederson is as head coach, his time with the Jaguars just never reached the level of optimism when he was first hired.

The Jaguars are a dysfunctional team, but do have plenty of core pieces on both sides of the ball including a franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence. Of all the teams that will fire their head coach, the Jaguars could be one of the most sought after openings due to Lawrence, the offensive weapons, and a talented defense.

Bet: No (-500)

Will Jerod Mayo Coach the New England Patriots Next Season?

• Yes (-400)
• No (+250)

The New England Patriots also have one of the worst records in the NFL. In fact, as of this writing, they sit with the #1 draft pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. With that said, the Patriots have played tough most of the season for Mayo and they do have their franchise QB in Drake Maye.

You combine Maye with some free agent receivers, and drafting Travis Hunter first overall, and this team suddenly becomes better than the Jets in the AFC East. Sure, they’re still a year or two away from being a winning team, but they’re heading in the right direction.

The Patriots will keep Mayo as he was handpicked to be the next heir to the throne that was vacated by Bill Belichick’s departure.

Bet: Yes (-400)

Will Mike McCarthy Coach The Dallas Cowboys Next Season?

• Yes (-155)
• No (+115)

Mike McCarthy started off 6-10 with the Dallas Cowboys. He then put together three consecutive seasons of finishing 12-5. Yet, Dallas went 1-3 in Playoff games over that span. This year, the Cowboys won’t make the Playoffs and fell well below expectations.

However, there are a few reasons to keep McCarthy. And, that’s saying a lot considering I was on board the train to fire him over the first three months of the year. But something funny happened around Thanksgiving.

After losing Dak Prescott for the year, in early November, the Cowboys didn’t quit on the season. In fact, they played hard for McCarthy and made a run at a .500 record. Although, they will come up short of that mark, Dallas impressed with their grit.

A healthy Prescott will make this team a Playoff contender next season. However, they will need to nail the draft and bring in some more talent on both sides of the ball. Lastly, it’s not like many coaches are eager to work with an owner like Jerry Jones. I think McCarthy now gets one more season to prove that he can take this team to the NFC title game at the very least.

Bet: Yes (-155)

Will Shane Steichen Coach The Indianapolis Colts Next Season?

• Yes (-260)
• No (+170)

As mentioned above, heading into Week 17, the Indianapolis Colts were in Wild Card contention. Unfortunately, they lost to the lowly Giants and were eliminated from postseason contention. It was an embarrassing loss, but one that was more so on the defense that gave up 44 points to a terrible Giants offense.

Shane Steichen has been mired in poor QB play at times and his future will be tied to the young quarterback in Anthony Richardson. I believe the Colts give Steichen one more season, but they really need to commit to Richards this offseason or replace him. There can’t be anymore in-between decisions.

Bet: Yes (-260)

Will Zac Taylor Coach The Cincinnati Bengals Next Season?

• Yes (-280)
• No (+185)

This one is just silly. If Zac Taylor gets fired, there will be numerous teams jumping at the chance to sign him. Taylor’s Bengals have been a disappointment this season, but he and Joe Burrow helped to get Cincy into Wild Card contention at the end of the season.

Cincy’s problem isn’t coaching, it’s their defense which ranks near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories. This team has plenty of talent on the offensive side, but they will need to retool the defense.

Additionally, the front office is going to have to pay both Chase and Higgins this offseason. They made a huge mistake not paying these talented receivers last offseason and it’s going to cost them a lot more now.

Taylor isn’t going anywhere unless Joe Burrow wants him gone. And, as of now, Burrow and Taylor make for one of the best QB-coach duos in the league.

Bet: Yes (-280)

Will Nick Sirianni Coach The Philadelphia Eagles Next Season?

• Yes (-500)
• No (+300)

Unlike with Taylor, Nick Sirianni has rubbed fans, players, critics and the front office the wrong way this season. He’s made some silly comments that really were unbecoming of an NFL head coach.

With that in mind, the only way he gets fired is if Philly gets eliminated in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs. Otherwise, this team is poised to challenge for the NFC Conference title and to go back to their second Super Bowl in three years. That’s not something you want to disrupt.

Bet: Yes (-500)

How Many Coaches Will Be Fired Between Black Monday and the Super Bowl?

• Over 3.5 head coaches (-135)
• Under 3.5 head coaches (-105)

Looking at the coaches above, I believe that Pierce, Pederson and Daboll will all be fired. All three franchises need an overhaul with the coaching staff and front office. The Raiders have the least amount of talent of these three teams, which makes them the least desirable vacancy this offseason.

Now, the question is whether or not a fourth head coach will get fired. And, it’s going to be a close one as Mike McCarthy could get the axe. If the Colts’ front office wants new leadership, then they could also fire Steichen following the disappointing conclusion to the season.

With that said, I’m taking a small flier on the Under for this prop bet. I think McCarthy, Steichen, Mayo, Taylor, and Sirianni all survive the chopping block. Now, all but Taylor and Sirianni will be on the hot seat heading into next year.  

Bet: Under 3.5 head coaches (-115)

NFL Black Monday

The origin of Black Monday began in the 1990s after The Chicago Tribune mentioned this term in association with College Football coaches getting fired. By the late 1990s, many of the major media outlets were using this term to describe the NFL firings following the end of the season.

Typically, the last NFL game is played on Sunday night. Following that game, teams that don’t make the Playoffs are looking towards building for the offseason, which may include firing their head coach.

What Is NFL Black Monday?

NFL Black Monday refers to the Monday right after the conclusion of the regular season. It’s often when teams fire head coaches, coordinators or GMs for disappointing seasons. Since 18 teams don’t make the Playoffs, there’s a higher chance that coaches get fired on this day than during the regular season.

Black Monday 2024

Since the NFL moved to an 18-week regular season, Black Monday is now pushed back into January of the following calendar year. So, the 2023-24 regular season ended on Sunday, January 7^th. This meant that Black Monday fell on January 8^th.

And, true to form, the axe fell on multiple coaches this Black Monday as Atlanta fired Arthur Smith early that morning. Smith finished his three-year tenure with the Falcons going 21-30 and never making the Playoffs. In fact, he finished with a 7-10 record each of his three seasons.

The Washington Commanders would fire Ron Rivera later that day, after four years as their head coach. Rivera finished 26-40-1 with four years of non-winning football. The Commanders did finish 7-9 in 2020 and won the NFC East division, but they lost in the Wild Card round to Brady and the Bucs. Prior to that, Rivera went 76-63-1 with Carolina during the regular season and 3-4 in the postseason. He led the Panthers to a Super Bowl loss against the Broncos in SB 50.

Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel had intense discussions all Black Monday and had one foot out the door. However, his official release didn’t take place until the next day. Yet, he was pretty much gone on that Monday.

Future HOF coach Pete Carroll almost survived the firing squad. Unfortunately, differences between Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks front office weren’t able to be resolved and the 72-year-old coach was let go two days after Black Monday.

On January 11th, 2024, the greatest NFL head coach of all-time, Bill Belichick agreed with the New England Patriots to part ways. That’s a nice way to say that the team was going to fire him. Belichick finished his 24-year tenure with the Patriots sporting a 266-121-0 record with 6 Super Bowl wins and a 30-12 Playoff mark. He also won 17 AFC East titles including 11 in a row from 2009-2019.

As mentioned at the beginning of the article, Frank Reich, Brandon Staley and Josh McDaniels were all released during the season. The Panthers didn’t even give Reich a full first year as head coach. They fired him after Week 11 due to the team getting off to a 1-10 start. Brandon Staley lasted under three seasons as the Los Angeles Chargers fired him after Week 15 due to a 5-9 start and one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history. The Raiders destroyed the Chargers on Thursday Night Football by the score of 63-21.

Last year, Josh McDaniels was the first coach to get fired. So, if you were betting on this prop bet for the 2023-24 NFL season, you would’ve won if you wagered on McDaniels. The Raiders axed him after Week 8 due to Las Vegas starting the season 3-5. McDaniels finished with a 9-16 mark and a roster full of players that celebrated his departure from the organization.

Black Monday 2023

On January 8, 2023, Black Monday saw Kliff Kingsbury as the lone head coach to get fired on this day. The Arizona Cardinals decided to part ways with the once highly regarded coach.

That year, Houston fired Lovie Smith a few hours prior to the start of Black Monday. Additionally, three coaches were fired during the season:

On October 10, 2022, the Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start to the season.

The day after Christmas, the Denver Broncos didn’t even want to wait until Black Monday to fire Nathaniel Hackett. The team was 4-11 and most of the players had quit on the coach months prior. At least they let Hackett celebrate the holiday still employed!

Following five seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, Frank Reich was bounced after Week 9 due to a 3-5-1 start to the season. Ironically, Reich was fired after a 1-10 start to the 2023-24 season with the Panthers. It’s a dubious honor to be fired two years in a row during the season.

Black Monday 2022

The conclusion of the 2021-22 season came to an end on January 9^th, which put Black Monday on January 10^th. The Denver Broncos didn’t even wait until Black Monday to fire Vic Fangio. After three seasons, and a 19-30 record, the Broncos fired him on the Sunday before, since the team played on Saturday, January 8^th.

Following eight years as the head coach of the Vikings, Mike Zimmer was fired due to another losing season with an 8-9 record. He finished his tenure with a 72-56-1 regular season mark along with a 2-3 postseason record.

The Chicago Bears put fans out of their misery by finally firing Matt Nagy after his fourth season as the head coach. Nagy finished with a 34-31 record. However, he had three consecutive seasons of 8-8 or worse to close out his tenure.

The biggest surprise on the 2022 Black Monday, was Brian Flores getting fired by the Miami Dolphins. Although Flores didn’t make the Playoffs during his three years as the head coach, he did have two consecutive winning seasons before being let go. Flores finished with a 24-25 record with the Dolphins. However, that record is misleading as he went 19-14 over his final two years.

The New York Giants waited an extra day before firing Joe Judge after two seasons at the helm. Judge was 10-23 over those two years, so it’s unclear if the team wanted Judge to have his own day of facing the firing squad or if Judge nearly bribed or blackmailed the front office for a third year as the coach.

A few days following Black Monday, the Houston Texans fired David Culley after just one season. The team finished 4-13. It’s still a mystery how Culley even ended up as the head coach considering his lack of experience.

Jon Gruden (Raiders) and Urban Meyer (Jaguars) were both forced out during the regular season. Additionally, both were let go after scandals rocked their respective franchises.

Black Monday 2021

The 2020-21 NFL season was the last year of a 17-week schedule. So, the Black Monday fell on January 4^th, 2021, and two NFL coaches fell on that day.

The Los Angeles Chargers fired Anthony Lynn after four yeas as their head coach. He finished with a 33-31 record with the Chargers and two straight losing seasons. He also only appeared in the Playoffs one time and went 1-1 that year.

After four full seasons, and two games in 2016 as the interim head coach, the Jaguars fired Doug Marrone as their head coach. He finished his tenure with a 23-43 record in the regular season and 2-1 in the Playoffs. However, his final season saw the team finish 1-15 and a third straight season of six wins or less. And, let’s not forget how he quit on the Buffalo Bills in 2015. It was shocking that the Jaguars even waited this long to fire Marrone, let alone even hiring a head coach who quit his job after two seasons in Buffalo.

The Philadelphia Eagles ended up firing Doug Pederson a week later after discussions broke down and their differences became irreconcilable.

The New York Jets fired Adam Gase after two years at the helm. He finished 9-23 with the Jets, which included a 2-14 record in his final season. Prior to that, Gase was 23-25 with the Miami Dolphins and was also fired on Black Monday of 2018. Another dubious honor to be fired twice on Black Monday.

During the season, the Detroit Lions fired Matt Patricia after Week 11 following 2 ½ seasons and a 13-29-1 record.

The Houston Texans fired Bill O’Brien after Week 4 of the 2020 season. He finished his tenure at 52-48 in the regular season and 2-4 in the Playoffs. He went to the Playoffs two straight years before being fired. It’s more than likely that O’Brien was fired more so due to the Hopkins trade than anything else.

Dan Quinn’s tenure with the Atlanta Falcons came to an end after Week 5 of the season. He finished with a 43-42 regular season record and a 3-2 postseason record in his five-plus years as head coach.