2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds and Predictions

T.J. Watt entered the 2024-25 NFL season with the best NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, and that’s precisely the way he’s ending it.

Going into week 18, the star Pittsburgh Steelers pass rusher is still the top betting favorite, and the fact that he has his team in position for a Super Bowl run has a lot to do with it.

But is Watt a lock? There is another top contender, and there are a few sleeper bets that could be worth your time. Of course, it may not be quite as tight as the race for the NFL MVP might be.

Regardless, I’ll break down the latest odds to win the 2024-25 NFL DPOY award and come away with a prediction.

2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Player	September Odds	Current Odds
T.J. Watt	+550	-120
Patrick Surtain II	N/A	+110
Myles Garrett	+800	+1000
Kerby Joseph	N/A	+1200
Andrew Van Ginkel	N/A	+1600

The latest NFL Defensive Player of the Year award odds are certainly interesting, especially when you look back at where things were when the season first kicked off.

Watt was the favorite then, but his price has moved quite a bit. Bettors don’t always like to hear it, but if you liked Watt to win the award, there quite simply was never a better time to back him than then.

His price has only gotten worse for prospective bettors, but the same can’t be said for someone like Myles Garrett. He’s no longer as likely to win, but his price has jumped from +800 to +1000, keeping him in contention for the award, but at a more appealing price.

As for the other top NFL Defensive Player of the Year contenders, they flat out didn’t even have odds at most NFL sportsbooks back in September. Heck, most people didn’t even know Andrew Van Ginkel even existed.

Kerby Joseph was a respected safety, at least, and Surtain II is known for his legendary shutdown cover skills. He’s actually priced as the most logical pivot away from Watt, but is he really a good bet?

I’ll break it all down below, but if you need even more advice before finalizing wagers for NFL betting markets such as this, consider giving our free sports betting handicapping package for a spin.

2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Contenders

According to the latest NFL odds, the following players are considered the true contenders to win the NFL DPOY award:

T.J. Watt (-120)

Watt has been a key to a good Pittsburgh Steelers defense for years, and he’s lost nothing in a year where he’s recorded a stellar 11.5 sacks. He isn’t running away with the sack title, but he’s just 2.5 sacks out of the league lead going into the final game of the year.

This is a rare case where a sack specialist could win even without notching the most quarterback takedowns, largely because Watt has still made an impact elsewhere on the field (61 tackles and 6 forced fumbles). It’s helped his Steelers win 10 games, record the NFL’s 7th best scoring defense, and possibly snag the AFC North crown.

His numbers could be a bit better when compared to past winners of this award, but Watt is on par with every other top threat for 2024. Add in his versatility and team success, and he makes total sense as the betting favorite.

Patrick Surtain II (+110)

The number one contender for this award appears to be Denver Broncos cornerback, Patrick Surtain II. He is not the most alluring candidate when it comes to numbers alone, as teams do not enjoy throwing the ball his way.

One of the best shutdown cover men in the game – if not the absolute best – Surtain II does not give up much production to opposing defenses, and yet he makes the most of targets that come his way (4 interceptions).

Surtain II’s value can be felt more at a high level when it comes to his team’s overall play, of course, as his Broncos rank 5th in scoring, #1 in sack rate, and 8th in yards per pass. His ability to take the opponent’s best wide receiver out of the equation allows Denver’s defense to be at it’s best, and is a big reason the Broncos could be a real force in the conference if they manage to sneak into the playoff picture.

Of course, that distinction could just as easily apply to first-year quarterback Bo Nix, who may have a better shot to win the NFL Rookie of the Year award.

Myles Garrett (+1000)

It’s worth wondering how successful the Cleveland Browns would be one day if they actually could also get someone in contention for the NFL Offensive Player of the Year as well.

That hasn’t been happening much lately, which puts the onus on elite pass rusher Myles Garrett (league-leading 14 sacks) showing up game after game. It has seemingly gotten to Garrett, of course, as all the sacks in the world haven’t been able to rescue a truly struggling Cleveland offense.

Regardless, Garrett deserves all the praise he gets. Despite winning this award just last year, Garrett lost zero determination to keep his name in the same conversation, as he enters the season finale tied for the most sacks in pro football.

Whether he holds onto that mark or not, Garrett looks like a viable value bet at his +1000 odds. The biggest issue? His Browns have been one of the worst teams in the league, and his 14 sacks haven’t stopped them from ranking 24th in scoring.

Kerby Joseph (+1200)

If we care about team success, we should definitely be giving Kerby Joseph a good, hard look. His Detroit Lions have looked like the best team in the NFL more often than not in 2024, and he’s a big reason why Detroit has been able to pull out wins in some close games.

Joseph presently leads the league in interceptions (9), while his ball hawking ways have contributed greatly to a defense that is top 10 in scoring, 12th in red-zone scoring, 8th in total takeaways per game, and 4th in turnover margin.

It’s fair to note that Joseph is part of the problem, too. Detroit’s defense has been aggressive and opportunistic, but they also rank 27th in sack rate and 31st against the pass. Even so, Joseph’s elite playmaking on a very good team shouldn’t go ignored – especially not at this appealing +1200 price tag.

Andrew Van Ginkel (+1600)

One last viable contender to win the 2024-25 NFL DPOY award is Minnesota Vikings linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel. 

Van who? I know, he certainly was not a household name before the season started, but the long-haired Wisconsin alum earned a key gig in his first year with the team and never looked back. Van Ginkel was making huge plays on a regular basis early on, and through week 17 it’s led to a stat line of 72 total tackles, 11.5 sacks, two interceptions, and two defensive touchdowns.

Put simply, Van Ginkel has been all over the place for the Purple People Eaters. He’s been a sack machine (just 2.5 sacks out of the league lead), but he’s also been responsible for three other turnovers and is endlessly involved in key stops.

He lacks legit star power such as the likes of Watt or Garrett, but his numbers are actually comparable to both players and his team success has been far more impressive. In fact, it has his Vikings potentially on the cusp of a trip to the NFC Championship game.

2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Predictions

Much like the NFL MVP is a glorified quarterback award, the NFL Defensive Player of the Year trophy seems to often go to the guy who can rack up the most sacks in a season.

That’s certainly been the case of late, as just one non-sack artist has won the award in the last decade. Stephon Gilmore is the lone defensive back to win since 2011, while he and Luke Kuechly are the only two defensive players not known for sacks that have won in the last 13 seasons.

I’m not saying that means someone like Patrick Surtain II or even Kerby Joseph can’t win. But logic suggests a pass rusher is going to get this gig. Myles Garrett is tied for the lead league in sacks, so I do think he’s a terrific value play at this point, but a lack of team success probably keeps him from consecutive nods.

This award is notorious for returning to the same player more than once, but it’s going to be T.J. Watt who I feel will hear his name called for a second time. Watt isn’t that far behind Garrett (11.5 sacks), he has more total tackles (61), and his team has been far better.

With Watt’s stats comparable in some areas and even better in others – and his team having a shot at reaching the AFC Championship – he remains the likely pick to win this award.

Recent NFL Defensive Player of the Year Winners

The following is a list of the most recent NFL Defensive Player of the Year winners:

Year	Player	Team
2023	Myles Garrett	Cleveland Browns
2022	Nick Bosa	San Francisco 49ers
2021	T.J. Watt	Pittsburgh Steelers
2020	Aaron Donald	Los Angeles Rams
2019	Stephon Gilmore	New England Patriots
2018	Aaron Donald	Los Angeles Rams
2017	Aaron Donald	Los Angeles Rams
2016	Khalil Mack	Oakland Raiders
2015	J.J. Watt	Houston Texans
2014	J.J. Watt	Houston Texans