2024-25 NFL Divisional Round Odds and Predictions

Industry’s Best

Handicapping Membership

Get Free Trial

The NFL Divisional Round is here with just eight teams remaining in the hunt for the Super Bowl. Each team remaining has understandable title aspirations, though more dreams will be dashed during the weekend’s four-game slate.

The festivities kick off on Saturday afternoon, when the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans. The Saturday nightcap should be a fun one with a potential shootout between the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions.

On Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams will head across the country to visit the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Buffalo Bills will play host to the Baltimore Ravens in arguably the most exciting matchup of all to wrap things up.

Each game is loaded with intrigue and high stakes, as teams battle for a spot in their respective conference championships. Below, we break down the schedule, odds, and predictions for all four matchups.

Divisional Round Schedule

The Detroit Lions are the biggest betting favorites of the Divisional Round with a spread up near 10 points and a -500 moneyline. They’re followed closely by the Kansas City Chiefs (-410) who is a -8.5 favorite. Will we see chalk like the Wild Card Round or will there be a few more upsets?

Divisional Round Predictions

Let’s find our best bets and make a prediction for each game in the Divisional Round.

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds

Few were picking the Houston Texans to topple the Los Angeles Chargers last week. The Chargers were actually 3-point road favorites for the game in Houston, but it was the Texans who truly came to play. Houston’s defense shut down Justin Herbert and the Bolts’ offense, while Houston’s own offense burst to life on the heels of a very inauspicious start.

The Texans goaded Herbert into 4 interceptions and held him to just 14-for-34 passing in a dominant 32-12 victory on home turf. While the Texans’ offense has been a bit hit-or-miss as a result of some shaky offensive line play, CJ Stroud still enjoyed an efficient effort of his own. The 2nd-year signal-caller completed 22 of his 33 attempts for 282 yards, while Joe Mixon topped 100 yards on 25 carries.

Houston’s defense was the story, however, and it’s been the story all year long. Their ability to rush the passer is underrated, and they had Herbert uncomfortable all afternoon long. Of course, this week’s matchup against the 3-time Super Bowl champions is a bit more challenging. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t had its best season, however, and they’ll have their hands full with Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson, Derek Stingley, and Houston’s terrific defense.

Rust could also be a factor for the 2-time reigning Super Bowl champs. Mahomes hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since Christmas Day. This is a Kansas City offense that hasn’t scored more than 30 points in a game all season. While I expect the Chiefs to win this one at home, I’m not sold on their chances of covering a sizable 8.5-point spread. KC is the best bet to win, but I like Houston to cover.

• Betting Trends:
  • Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six Divisional Round games.
  • Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road playoff games.
  • The total has gone under in six of Kansas City’s last eight games.
• Predictions:
  • Spread: Texans +8.5 (-115) – This is a big spread for a playoff game, and the Texans should feel confident after last week’s blowout victory.
  • Moneyline: Chiefs (-410) – A safe pick, but the price is steep.
  • Total: Under 42.5 (-115) – Expect Kansas City’s defense to limit Houston’s scoring opportunities.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 21
Best Bet: Texans +8.5 (-115)

Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions Odds

The Lions have been a juggernaut this season, led by Jared Goff and an offense that can score from anywhere on the field. The Commanders, meanwhile, come into this game as massive underdogs, relying on a scrappy defense to stay competitive. Detroit’s balanced attack and home-field advantage make them the clear favorites.

That said, a 9.5-point spread is a big one for a playoff game. While the Lions are absolutely the real deal, they’ve also been beset by tons of injuries, particularly on defense. Detroit’s offense will have to keep them afloat in this one, especially considering the defense is going to have a very tough time slowing down Jayden Daniels and company. Just ask the Tampa Bay Buccaneers how easy it is to slow these guys down.

The lights certainly weren’t too bright for Daniels in his first NFL playoff game last week. All the future Offensive Rookie of the Year did was complete 24 of his 35 pass attempts for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns without a turnover. Daniels also carried the ball 13 times for 36 yards. His rushing ability is so dangerous that opposing defenses never know what’s coming, and Daniels has the poise under pressure to make plays with his arm or legs.

That said, the Commanders’ defense will have a full plate, as well. Detroit’s offense is the most explosive in football, and David Montgomery is expected to return to the field after missing the season’s final few weeks with a knee injury. Jahmyr GIbbs showed he’s fully capable of carrying a heavy load during Montgomery’s absence, but having both backs healthy and in the lineup will be a major boon to Jared Goff and this group.

As is the case with the Texans-Chiefs clash, I like the underdog to cover the spread. Washington has so much juice offensively that they’re capable of dominating time of possession and keeping opposing offenses sidelined. We saw them execute that game plan to perfection last week in Tampa. Dictating the tempo in this one won’t be easy, but I do think the Commanders can hang around in this one, even if the Lions ultimately prevail.

• Betting Trends:
  • Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
  • Commanders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games.
  • The total has gone under in five of Detroit’s last six games.
• Predictions:
  • Spread: Commanders +9.5 (-112) – Washington isn’t easy to blow out.
  • Moneyline: Lions (-500) – A strong parlay option, though not great standalone value.
  • Total: Under 55.5 (-115) – Detroit’s defense should stifle Washington’s scoring.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 34, Commanders 28
Best Bet: Commanders +9.5 (-112)

LA Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds

This one should be a fun one. The Los Angeles Rams had their Super Wild Card Weekend game moved from LA to Glendale because of the Southern California wildfires, yet they still managed to thrash the Minnesota Vikings, 27-9, to punch their ticket to the Divisional Round. They’ll face off against the Philadelphia Eagles, who enjoyed a fairly stress-free win over the Green Bay Packers, 22-10, on Sunday.

The Rams’ defense was the story in their win over Minnesota. Los Angeles racked up 9 sacks of Sam Darnold in a completely dominant effort, though they’ll face a much stiffer test this week against the Eagles’ more balanced offensive attack. Minnesota did average 4.8 yards per rushing attempt, but they had to largely abandon the run after falling into an early deficit. Philadelphia is going to be more equipped to take advantage of that potential weakness in the LA defensive front.

If that’s the case, the Rams will need a vintage Matthew Stafford game in order to keep pace. Stafford threw for 209 yards and a couple of touchdowns against the Vikings, though Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp combined for just 6 receptions. Kupp’s production is down considerably in recent games, though I’d expect the Rams to try and get both pass-catchers heavily involved early in this one.

Philadelphia is a justifiable favorite in this one, however. They’ve won each of the last 11 games started and finished by Jalen Hurts, and nobody has managed to solve the Eagles’ rushing attack. Saquon Barkley added yet another 100-yard game to his ledger against Green Bay. In their meeting earlier this season, all Barkley did was carry the ball 26 times for a season-high 255 yards and a couple of touchdowns.

The Rams are a pesky opponent, but I expect the Eagles to take care of business on their home field.

• Betting Trends:
  • Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
  • Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five road playoff games.
  • The total has gone under in seven of the Eagles’ last ten games.
• Predictions:
  • Spread: Eagles -6 (-110) – Philadelphia should win by at least a touchdown at home.
  • Moneyline: Eagles (-278) – A solid choice for parlays and straight bets.
  • Total: Under 44.5 (-118) – A defensive battle is likely in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Rams 17
Best Bet: Eagles -6 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

The Ravens and Bills face off in what could be the most competitive game of the weekend. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are duking it out for MVP honors, and both defenses will be tested in this high-stakes matchup. Turnovers and key red-zone stops will likely determine the outcome.

Both teams enjoyed relatively easy wins in the Super Wild Card Round. The Ravens toppled the Pittsburgh Steelers, 28-14, in a solid all-around effort. Jackson threw a couple of touchdown passes while Derrick Henry rumbled for 186 yards and 2 more scores on the ground. Keeping Baltimore’s elite rushing tandem under wraps will be a tall task for the Buffalo defense, though the Bills did fare well on that side of the ball in last week’s blowout win over the Denver Broncos.

Buffalo fell into an early 7-0 hole in that game, but they bounced back from a slow start to deliver an easy 31-7 triumph. Allen did Allen things, while James Cook rushed for over 100 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 23 carries.

Things didn’t go well for the Bills when they met the Ravens in Baltimore at the end of September. Henry finished with 24 carries for 199 yards and Lamar added a couple of TD passes in Baltimore’s 35-10 rout. Buffalo entered that game unbeaten, but the Bills’ offense has picked it up in a big way since that setback.

This game has a predictably tight spread, and no result would be all that shocking. I think the best way to approach this one is to bet the over on 51.5 points. While Baltimore’s defense has improved since some early-season struggles, I’m still not sold on their chances of keeping Allen and the Bills’ offense in check for a second time this season. I’m not sure there’s a defense in the league capable of stopping the Ravens, so points should be scored in bunches on Sunday night.

Bet that over.

• Betting Trends:
  • Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
  • Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • The total has gone over in five of Baltimore’s last six games.
• Predictions:
  • Spread: Ravens -1.5 (-102) – Baltimore’s playoff experience gives them the edge.
  • Moneyline: Ravens (-118) – A toss-up game, but Baltimore is slightly favored.
  • Total: Over 51.5 (-105) – Both offenses should light up the scoreboard.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 34, Bills 33
Best Bet: Over 51.5 (-105)

Divisional Round Best Bets

After analyzing the Divisional Round matchups, here are our top betting picks:

• Houston Texans +8.5 (-115)
• Washington Commanders +9.5 (-112)
• Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Over 51.5 (-105)

Each of these bets offers solid value as standalone wagers, but combining them into a parlay could lead to a much larger payout. For example, a $100 parlay on these three bets would return approximately $596.32 if they all hit. You can choose to bet on them individually or aim for the bigger payoff by taking a shot with a Divisional Round parlay.