2024-25 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions

At some point, they may have to rename the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award. MVP isn’t necessarily supposed to go to a quarterback every year, but it does. A non-QB hasn’t taken home the prize since ex-Vikings running back Adrian Peterson way back in 2012.

Of the 68 NFL MVP Awards handed out over the years, 47 have gone to QBs. That’s nearly 70 percent. The numbers are also a bit skewed, as non-QBs won the award quite a bit more often back in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. The MVP has been a running back 18 times, while linebacker, defensive line, and kicker (!) have accounted for one MVP apiece.

As the 2024 NFL season approaches, football bettors are already wagering on who will win the award. The MVP race is always an exciting aspect of the NFL season, and this year’s will be no different.

Here’s a breakdown of the current betting odds for the 2024 NFL MVP.

2024 NFL MVP Odds

Patrick Mahomes (+475)

Patrick Mahomes leads the pack with the best odds to win the MVP at +475. This should be breaking news to exactly nobody, of course.

Mahomes is the NFL’s best player, and his Chiefs are in the midst of a dynasty. Kansas City has won 3 of the past 5 Super Bowls, including each of the last 2. Mahomes has been named Super Bowl MVP in each of those triumphs, and the Chiefs are, once again, favorites to win it all this year.

It’s somehow a bit surprising that Mahomes “only” has a couple of regular-season MVPs to his name. He first won the award when he burst onto the scene by throwing an NFL-record 50 touchdowns back in 2018. His second MVP win was in 2022 when he topped 5,200 yards with 41 touchdown passes.

You can argue Mahomes had a down year last year when he topped 4,100 yards with 27 touchdowns to 14 interceptions across 16 games. That was Mahomes’ lowest passing TD total in a full season since becoming the Chiefs’ starter in ’18, while he set a new career-high for interceptions. It didn’t matter, of course, as Kansas City still went on to win the title.

A bet on Mahomes to win MVP is never a bad one, especially considering his +475 odds will only get worse from here if the Chiefs get off to a hot start.

C.J. Stroud (+850)

C.J. Stroud – the dynamic second-year quarterback for the Houston Texans – is next with +850 odds. Stroud had a stellar college career at Ohio State and wasted no time adjusting to the NFL level last year. His performance in his rookie year has set high expectations, and if he continues on this trajectory, he could be a compelling MVP candidate.

Stroud was taken 2nd overall by Houston right after the Panthers nabbed Bryce Young with the top pick. If Carolina had a do-over, you can bet they’d take Stroud the second time. The California native led the previously downtrodden Texans to a surprising AFC South title and a playoff win over the Cleveland Browns as a rookie.

In 15 games, Stroud completed nearly 64 percent of his throws for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to just five INTs. He set a new NFL record for most pass attempts to begin a career without an interception (186). He was also the first QB since 1950 to go through his first 5 NFL games without throwing a pick.

All the Texans have done this offseason is improve Stroud’s weaponry. Star pass-catchers Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz will be back, while Houston added a couple of big names in Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon back in the spring. You can make an easy argument that the Texans have the most talented offense in the league, which is a shocking development considering this franchise was starting Davis Mills at quarterback just a couple of years ago.

For Stroud to win MVP, the Texans aren’t going to be able to fall short of the lofty expectations that have suddenly been set for them. It’s been quite a while since this team had any hope, so it’ll be interesting to see how they deal with the pressure. Houston won’t be sneaking up on anybody this season, nor will Stroud.

Josh Allen (+900)

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills shares the same odds as Joe Burrow at +900. Allen’s dual-threat ability as a passer and runner makes him a dangerous player and a perennial MVP contender.

Allen has yet to win an MVP award, yet he’s in the running every year. He did struggle a bit last season, however, relative to preseason expectations. Allen threw at least 35 touchdown passes in every season between 2020 and 2022. Last year, he threw just 29 to go along with a career-worst 18 interceptions.

The Bills have been a trendy Super Bowl pick for the past few years, but they seem to be flying under the radar heading into 2024. Buffalo won the AFC East again last season after an 11-6 finish, but teams like the Chiefs and Texans are generating more buzz as we prepare for Week 1.

Perhaps that’s something Allen can use to his advantage. His former top target – Stefon Diggs – is now in Houston. Gabe Davis – Buffalo’s more unheralded big-play receiver – signed a free-agent deal to head to Jacksonville. Khalil Shakir is expected to jump into a bigger role, while Allen will have to lean on rookie Keon Coleman and veterans Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to pick up some of the slack.

Whether that’ll work remains to be seen, but I do think Allen stands out as a sneaky value bet at +900.

Joe Burrow (+900)

Joe Burrow also comes in at +900. The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback has done nothing but win ever since bursting onto the scene at LSU back in 2019. Burrow’s leadership and talent have turned the Bengals into a competitive team, and another strong season could earn him MVP honors.

2023 was a year to forget for Burrow. He sustained a calf injury in training camp and never quite recovered. He didn’t play up to his caliber across 10 appearances before suffering a season-ending injury to his throwing wrist in November. Cincy slumped to a 9-8 finish and finished in the cellar of the AFC North with Burrow watching from the sidelines.

He’s healthy and ready to roll entering the new season, and he still has a couple of elite weapons in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins running routes in what should be a terrific offense. Cincinnati’s brass again attempted to overhaul the offensive line this offseason in an attempt to keep Burrow as healthy as possible.

When he’s been healthy, Burrow has been one of the league’s top quarterbacks since his rookie year back in 2020. The Bengals are again listed among the favorites to win the Super Bowl and finish with one of the best records in football, which should put Burrow firmly back in the MVP race.

Jordan Love (+1400)

Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers is listed at +1400. Love has big shoes to fill after the departure of Aaron Rodgers, but he has shown promise.

Love was a total wild card entering last season, as he’d played in just a total of 10 games since he was drafted in the first round by Green Bay in 2020. There were plenty of skeptics considering he played against fairly weak competition collegiately at Utah State, but it didn’t take Love long to silence the doubters.

Across 17 games as a de facto rookie, Love completed better than 64 percent of his attempts for 4,159 yards alongside 32 touchdowns to 11 INTs. He also added four rushing touchdowns, for good measure. Love led the Packers to an upset win over the Cowboys on the road in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs before a heartbreaking loss at San Francisco in the Divisional Round.

The Packers rewarded their new franchise QB with a new deal worth in excess of $200 million just last week. Despite the fact that he plays for one of the league’s flagship franchises, it seems as though Love is flying under the radar from a hype standpoint. Green Bay is playing in a tricky division that features other up-and-comers like the Lions and Bears, but they should once again be in the thick of the NFC playoff race.

I have no idea why Jordan isn’t getting more Love with oddsmakers when it comes to his MVP chances, but perhaps he should be.

Jalen Hurts (+1500)

Jalen Hurts from the Philadelphia Eagles is at +1500. Hurts has steadily improved since entering the league, and his ability to make plays with both his arm and legs makes him a versatile threat.

Hurts’ Eagles got off to a blazing 10-1 start last season on the heels of a trip to the Super Bowl in 2022. The former Alabama and Oklahoma standout had the inside track to last season’s MVP trophy, but the Eagles fizzled late in the campaign.

Philadelphia finished the season just 11-6 after winning 10 of their first 11 games. They were then crushed in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs by Tampa Bay.

Hurts still put up impressive individual numbers, finishing the season with a combined 38 passing and rushing touchdowns. Turnovers were a bit of an issue, however, as he threw 15 interceptions and lost four fumbles across 17 regular-season games before the Eagles’ aforementioned no-show in the playoffs.

The Eagles made a splashy move for Saquon Barkley this offseason, and it will be fascinating to see how the team incorporates him into the offense. Hurts’ rushing touchdown production is likely to decline with Saquon in the mix, which could prove costly to his MVP hopes.

Lamar Jackson (+1500)

Is…this a typo? Lamar Jackson won this very award last season for the second time in his career. For some reason, he’s checking in at just +1500 to make it back-to-back trophies.

Jackson is the NFL’s most lethal two-way threat, as we were reminded once again in 2023. All he did in 16 games was complete 67 percent of his passes for 3,678 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also rushed for another 821 yards with five more scores as the Ravens finished with the league’s best record at 13-4.

Baltimore again fell short of a Super Bowl by losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, but they’ve reloaded entering 2024. Jackson will now line up in the backfield alongside former rushing champ Derrick Henry, while his top pass-catchers – Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews – are still in the fold.

Winning consecutive MVPs is rare, but hardly unprecedented. Five players have accomplished the feat: Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Joe Montana, and Jim Brown. Manning actually went back-to-back on two separate occasions, while Favre won the award three times in a row. Rodgers was the last to do it in 2020 and 2021 with Green Bay.

Barring an injury or a random collapse by the Ravens, I see no reason to believe Jackson can’t make a run at his third career MVP trophy this year.

Brock Purdy (+1600)

Brock Purdy is arguably the NFL’s most divisive player these days. Some believe he’s merely a product of playing alongside a slew of Pro Bowlers in a smart offensive system. Others believe he’s been the catalyst in the Niners’ offensive surge over the past couple of years.

Regardless of where you fall on Purdy, the numbers are the numbers. The Iowa State product completed more than 69 percent of his passes for 4,280 yards with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his first full season as an NFL starter. He led the 49ers to the Super Bowl a year after taking his team to the NFC Championship Game.

Purdy finished fourth in the MVP voting last year behind Jackson, Dak Prescott, and teammate Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey’s presence is the primary issue with Purdy’s candidacy. C-Mac is the straw that stirs the drink in this offense, and I think he’s a more likely MVP winner if the Niners rank among the league’s top offenses again in 2024.

Aaron Rodgers (+1600)

Aaron Rodgers, now with the New York Jets, also comes in at +1600. Rodgers is a multiple-time MVP winner and one of the best quarterbacks of his generation.

However, he’s a total wild card at this stage of his career. Rodgers played just a handful of snaps in his team debut for the Jets in Week 1 last year before going down with a season-ending Achilles injury.

Athletes are aging better than ever these days, but Rodgers is also going to turn 41 years old this December. Rodgers still put up impressive numbers when we last saw him play a full season for the Packers in 2022, but Achilles injuries are difficult to come back from.

He has a couple of dynamic weapons at his disposal in Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. It’s easy to forget based on how terribly last season went, but the Jets were generating some Super Bowl hype before Rodgers’ injury. This offseason, New York snagged a useful big-play threat in Mike Williams, while they’ve upgraded the offensive line by adding longtime Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith.

Rodgers is now playing in the biggest media market in the US. If he stays healthy and leads Gang Green back to the playoffs, Rodgers will garner some MVP consideration.

Trevor Lawrence (+3000)

Trevor Lawrence is listed at +3000 to win MVP. Lawrence is one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the league, and a strong season could put him in the MVP conversation.

Jacksonville was a disappointment last season after raising some eyebrows back in 2022. Lawrence was billed as the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck when he joined the Jaguars out of Clemson, but he hasn’t quite lived up to those hopes through his first few pro seasons.

The Jags still gave him a lucrative contract extension this offseason, though, so they’ve clearly not given up. Lawrence topped 4,000 passing yards for the second straight year, but finished with a rather unremarkable 3:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Jaguars also finished just 9-8 last year and missed out on the playoffs, which was a major disappointment after they gave the Chiefs a run for their money in the 2022 Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Jacksonville attempted to improve Lawrence’s weaponry this offseason, so perhaps a bounce-back season is in the cards. The Jags signed former Bills standout Gabe Davis, while they used a first-round pick on ex-LSU speedster Brian Thomas Jr. It’s far from unfathomable to think the Jaguars can win 10-plus games and get back into the playoffs this year.

Christian McCaffrey (+4000)

Christian McCaffrey has the best MVP odds of any non-quarterback at a distant +4000. I mentioned in the open that quarterbacks have won every MVP since 2012, but that streak will likely come to an end at some point. If any non-QB is going to be the one to do it, it’s probably C-Mac.

McCaffrey is a versatile offensive weapon, and if he can stay healthy and put up big numbers, he could be a dark horse MVP candidate. He finished third in MVP voting last season after topping 2,000 all-purpose yards for the best team in the NFC. McCaffrey’s 272 rushing attempts were the most he’s had in a season since 2019. Ditto for his 67 receptions across 16 games.

McCaffrey has battled injuries over the course of his career. Last season was also his first since 2019 in which he logged at least 16 games played. That’s always the risk when betting on MVP, especially given the injury risk that comes with playing running back at the NFL level.

If I’m betting on a Niner to win MVP, I’m taking a shot on C-Mac at +4000 well before I’m plunging any money down on Purdy’s +1600 odds.

Caleb Williams (+5000)

Caleb Williams was drafted by the Bears with the No. 1 overall pick in the most recent draft. He’s yet another highly-touted prospect, and the Bears seem to be doing everything they can to make sure his career gets off to a better start than Justin Fields’ did.

Chicago hasn’t had a star playmaker since Devin Hester, and he didn’t even play offense full-time. The team’s front office has done an admirable job of surrounding Williams with talent this offseason, however. Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift were all big-time additions, while DJ Moore is fresh off of an impressive first season with the team.

If Williams can keep his head above water, this offense should be significantly improved. However, it’s going to take a monster statistical season for Williams to win MVP as a rookie. Jim Brown is still the only rookie to have ever won MVP, and he did that way back in 1957.

It’s not impossible, of course. Stroud generated some MVP momentum just last season as a first-year pro, but Williams is far from my favorite value betting option on the board here.

Who Will Win NFL MVP in 2024?

The field is deep. While Mahomes is a worthy favorite at +475, perhaps voter fatigue will hurt his chances. Mahomes has already taken home more hardware than just about every other player to ever play the game, and he’s likely going to have to throw 40-to-50 touchdowns if he’s going to be in the MVP hunt once again.

He’s fully capable of doing that, but I’d rather take a shot on some of the players with longer odds. Josh Allen (+900), Jordan Love (+1400), Lamar Jackson (+1500), and Aaron Rodgers (+1600) are the names that stand out. Jackson is the most mispriced of this group, so I’d be fine with taking a flier at his weirdly long odds.

I’m expecting the Packers to improve upon their 9-8 finish last year, and I think Love’s odds will improve very quickly if that happens. You’re getting excellent bang for your buck with Love at his preseason +1400 NFL MVP odds.

Best Bet: Jordan Love (+1400)