2024-25 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds and Predictions

The 2024 NFL season is just around the corner, which naturally means we should be betting on every available player prop.

One betting market is NFL yardage leaders. I already broke down the 2024 NFL rushing yardage leader odds, and you can also bet on the top NFL receiving yardage leader.

Next up? You can bet on who will throw for the most passing yards in the league in 2024.

Right now Patrick Mahomes is the betting favorite, because that’s the case with pretty much every NFL wager dealing with quarterbacks. He’s favored to win the NFL MVP again, so why not this bet, too?

Of course, favorites don’t always win, and they also don’t offer the most appealing prices. Due to that, join me as I glance at the latest NFL passing yards odds and work my way to a prediction.

Odds to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards in 2024-25

Mahomes is the NFL passing yards leader favorite, with a price of +550 at BetOnline. This is one of a handful of online betting sites offering this wager, but feel free to stop around.

I’ll go over why Mahomes is favored (and why he may or may not be the bet), along with some other viable bets. But first, here are the odds to lead the NFL in passing this year.

Mahomes has won the passing crown before and, well, he’s freaking Patrick Mahomes. More on him in a bit, but truth be told, nobody should be doubting this dude anymore.

That said, his +550 odds don’t equate to a lock. There are 17 games to be played, and with his Chiefs always near the top of the league, he’s a risk to sit in the season finale.

There are quarterbacks on worse teams that could have to throw more, too, or other star passers who simply could dominate. Seven signal callers have odds of +1000 or better, which suggests this is a much more crowded race than some would have you believe.

You can chase some punts for superior upside, but my guess is the top portion of this betting market is where you’ll want to hang your hat. That said, value is forever the name of the game.

To gauge the right direction, let’s inspect Mahomes as the favorite and see what other quarterbacks could put up a ton of passing yards this year.

Why is Patrick Mahomes Favored to Win the 2024-25 NFL Passing Title?

Mahomes is an interesting favorite. Part of his allure is the fact that he’s the most accomplished quarterback in the NFL. Baby Goat, as they say, is addicted to winning titles, and he can seemingly elevate even pedestrian talent to great heights.

His offense got a nice talent injection during the off-season, though. Rashee Rice has some legal issues to sort out, but the Kansas City Chiefs made sure he had some extra help after an up and down 2023 campaign.

That was done by acquiring speedster Hollywood Brown, and also drafting the draft’s fastest receiver in Xavier Worthy.

Assuming Rice isn’t suspended the entire year, Mahomes has quite the arsenal to lean on, and as is often the case, everyone KC faces will aim to give them all they have.

Mahomes seems to be somewhat in the running for the passing crown regularly, too. He missed a game last year, but still finished sixth in passing yards with 4,183. The year before, it was him hoisting the passing yardage hardware, as he put up an insane 5,250 yards.

That was his second season with 5,000+ passing yards, and he’s now topped at least 4,700 four different times. 

Mahomes has the past production, personal talent, and surrounding weapons to give it a go again in 2024. His +550 odds to lead the NFL in passing yards aren’t bad, either.

He looks like a viable bet as this year’s favorite, but like usual, I do think it’s worth looking at alternative options before putting any money down.

Top 2024-25 NFL Passing Yard Leader Contenders

Mahomes is a reasonable betting favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage, but he’s not all by his lonesome. He didn’t pace the league through the air in 2023, after all.

I think he’s a fine bet, but there are at least three legit contenders for the NFL passing crown that bettors need to pay some mind to.

Dak Prescott +700

If you don’t want to back Mahomes to put up the most passing yards in the NFL this year, consider Dak Prescott.

The biggest thing going for Dak is the current state of the Dallas Cowboys. They continue to love throwing the football, and they don’t have a running back to speak of.

Dallas also has a legit stud receiver in CeeDee Lamb, as well as some interesting secondary options. But whether it’s by design or simply being forced to air it out, Dallas is seemingly always dropping back to pass.

Prescott was unsurprisingly fourth in passing attempts in 2023, and that helped him generate the third most passing yards in the NFL. He’s no stranger to prolific passing production, either, as Prescott was seventh in passing in 2021 and was first in yards per game before getting injured in 2020.

Prescott was second in passing yards in 2019, too, so he has a solid history of airing it out and achieving quality results. Like usual, he’s all Dallas has to turn to, so while he’ll be under a ton of pressure, I fully expect him to put up big numbers through the air.

Joe Burrow +950

This second slot is up for grabs between Josh Allen (+1000) and Burrow. Burrow may be tough to trust for some due to returning from a troublesome wrist injury, while Allen lost two of his top wide receivers.

I tend to lean toward Burrow here. His odds are slightly less inviting, but he has a top-5 wide receiver in Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins is a very nice second option he can lean on.

Burrow finished fifth in passing in 2022 and sixth in 2021, too, so we know he’s capable of putting up big numbers through the air. The departure of running back Joe Mixon could force Cincy to throw the ball more than usual, too.

The Cincinnati Bengals have had imposing offensive firepower ever since Burrow was taken first overall in the NFL Draft. He’s had two seasons cut short due to injuries, but in the other two he topped 4,400 yards.

You also just know he’s going to be on the comeback trail after sitting out seven games in 2023. Given his personal talent, the guys around him, and the narrative backing him, I expect fireworks out of Burrow and co. in 2024.

C.J. Stroud +1000

Stroud has some of the best NFL odds for this wager, and it’s honestly a little shocking that his price is this good.

People seem to forget that this guy just put together perhaps the best season ever by a rookie NFL quarterback.

Not just that, but he actually averaged more passing yards per game than last year’s passing champion, Tua Tagovailoa.

Stroud has established himself as one of the best passers in the game after just one season, and 2024 brings even more upside. The arrival of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to an already potent offense is a huge reason why, but Stroud himself could take another huge step.

The talent on this Houston Texans offense is insane, and it’d take quite the tumble for Stroud and co. to disappoint. If they meet expectations, he could easily be in for a massive year, and perhaps the most passing yards in pro football.

Tua Tagovailoa/Kirk Cousins +1500

I need to give a shout to Kirk Cousins, who was averaging over 291 yards per game through the air before succumbing to a torn Achilles last year.

He has a nice supporting cast with the Atlanta Falcons, but I’m not ready to fully hop aboard. He is coming off of a very serious injury, after all, and he’s now in a new system. His passing production shouldn’t go ignored, of course.

The same goes for Tua. It’s always difficult to trust left-handed passers in the NFL, but give the guy credit. He paced the entire league in passing last season and his odds don’t reflect that one bit.

You can doubt Tagovailoa’s individual talent if you want, but the Miami Dolphins don’t, especially considering they just paid their franchise quarterback.

Tua also has two of the game’s most explosive deep threats in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, so there is little reason to think he’ll stop airing it out anytime soon.

There’s always his concussion injury and the difficulty of repeating as the passing yardage champion, but both Tua and Cousins do look like legit contenders that offer enticing value.

Best 2024-25 NFL Passing Yardage Value Bet

It is quite arguable that bettors are getting plenty of value with the top contenders. Mahomes at +550 is already plenty of cash back for every $100 you put in. 

The other threats detailed above offer logical rationale for winning and have even more attractive price tags.

But sports betting is all about that one big win, right? If you want to go a bit bigger, there’s one serious value bet I have my eye on. That’s none other than Will Levis.

He offers staggering odds at +6600. I know he slid in last year’s draft and he displayed mixed results during his rookie season, but he’s absolutely set up for success.

The guys around him are a bit long in the tooth, but they can still ball. Do you remember the explosiveness he put on tape with DeAndre Hopkins last year?

Nuk isn’t by himself, either. The Tennessee Titans brought in a stellar second wide receiver in Calvin Ridley. They also signed a respectable veteran in Tyler Boyd and still have Treylon Burks on the roster. 

Heck, they even got sleeker in the ground game by sending Derrick Henry packing and signing Tony Pollard.

By all accounts, the Titans want to throw the ball a bit more, and get the ball into the hands of their playmakers. Two of those happen to be explosive running backs, while two stud veteran receivers obviously spearhead an aged but seasoned air attack.

Levis is the missing link here, to be sure. 

The former Kentucky product wasn’t without his lumps in his first seasons as a pro. He only had a 84.2 quarterback rating and completed just 58.4% of his passes. He did, however, put up a solid 1,808 yards through just nine starts, with one of those games seeing him bow out early due to injury.

Levis has a big arm and has zero hesitance to let it rip. It’s true that he may not be the dude the Titans want him to be, but either way you look at it, he is a screaming value.

Either Levis lights it up with this stacked offense and Tennessee is a ton of fun, or they play from behind all year and he racks up yardage the old fashioned way. 

Who Will Lead the NFL in Passing Yards in 2024-25?

Will Levis is a fun flier bet at +6600 odds, and there are a number of worthwhile contenders to consider. I also don’t hate Patrick Mahomes as the +550 betting favorite.

However, the best bet to lead the NFL in passing yardage is undeniably C.J. Stroud. His +1000 odds are about as good as it gets, and he already ranked eighth in the NFL in passing in his rookie season.

He did that despite missing two games, so it’s not crazy to think he could have won the passing title as a first year player.

Tua Tagovailoa had more yards than anyone last year, but it was Stroud who had the best passing yards per game average (273.9) of any starters with at least 15 games.

It gets better for Stroud. Going into year two, he has an improved arsenal of weaponry around him, and his rushing attack gets an upgrade. He has a legit shot at pushing for over 5,000 passing yards, and I’ll gladly back him at that cool +1000 price.

Bet: C.J. Stroud +1000