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Parlaying my NFL upset picks wouldn’t have worked out, but if you bet on them individually – something I always suggest – it was a good week of profit.
Week 11 is already almost here, as Thursday Night Football will arrive before you know it, and you’ll wish you’d hopped on more NFL upsets. But which value picks stand out the most?
NFL Week 11 Underdog Picks
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | +3.5 (-120) | +155 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +3 (-105) | +150 |
| Chicago Bears | +6 (-105) | +215 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +3 (-105) | +150 |
Much like last week, there are instantly a few interesting NFL underdog picks at most pro football betting sites. I do encourage you to shop around for the best NFL odds, but these four games should get you off to a good start for week 11.
Two of these teams are on fire at the moment, while the other two could be in arguably advantageous spots. It’s up to you which plays to target – or if you parlay them – but I’ll go over why I like each upset pick in greater detail.
Want even more advice for week 11 NFL betting? Stop by our sports betting handicappers guide so you can see what other NFL picks experts are worth trusting.
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Washington Commanders (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
This week 11 NFL upset pick gets the ball rolling early, as the Washington Commanders will take on the Philadelphia Eagles on a short week on Thursday Night Football.
Few would have thought before the season began that this would be a battle for first place in the NFC East, but here we are. Everyone else is dead in the division, so it’s up to the 7-3 Commanders to threaten the first place Eagles (7-2).
Both of these teams look great and are in stellar form. Philly has reeled off five wins in a row, while the Commanders lost last week to snap a four-game winning streak of their own.
Fortune does favor the home team in general in spots like these. The Eagles are the more experienced team and they’re at home on a short week. However, Washington has been in every game this year and rookie sensation Jayden Daniels gives them the dual threat ability needed to keep Philly’s defense guessing.
I don’t know if the Commanders can actually fully stop Saquon Barkley and co., but it’s not as if teams haven’t been able to slow the Eagles down at points in 2024. And Washington doesn’t need to win for you to cash in. They just need to lose by a field goal.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Another tense divisional showdown awaits in week 11, where the Pittsburgh Steelers are understandable underdogs when they host the hated Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson and co. look great after a 7-3 start, and are exactly where they were expected to be.
Of course, it hasn’t always been perfect for the Ravens, as they’ve beaten the Cincinnati Bengals twice now by a combined four points, and they’ve had a few other slip-ups along the way. To be fair, Lamar Jackson is putting together yet another MVP-caliber campaign, while the addition of hard-nosed running back Derrick Henry has made this offense more dynamic than ever.
Heck, there’s even new wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who still has yet to get his feet wet in this offense after being acquired via trade two weeks ago.
As good as Baltimore has been, they’re still on the road against a tough Steelers team that is well known for their defensive chops, but has also been a handful on offense with a healthy Russell Wilson leading the way.
Since taking over as the starting quarterback three games ago, Pittsburgh has yet to lose a game (3-0), and they’ve poured in 26+ points in each game. That’s something they did in just one game during their 4-2 start with Wilson sidelined with a calf injury.
The point? Wilson has inspired this Steelers offense and they do enough defensively to give them a possible underrated edge at home in this one. The Ravens might still win, but expect a close one to the bitter end.
Chicago Bears (+6) vs. Green Bay Packers (-6)
I don’t trust the Chicago Bears in the least. They seem to be a dysfunctional unit with bad coaching and impossibly worse execution. Need I remind you of the botched hail mary defense of a couple of weeks ago?
Chicago is sliding with three straight losses, and their once promising season is starting to get away from them as they enter a big week 11 home stand against the visiting Green Bay Packers.
To be fair, very little about the Bears should make you feel good here. They can run the football when everything is clicking and they do have some nice weapons in the passing game, but their saving grace has easily been a stingy defense and solid special teams.
Is that enough to keep it close or even save their season with an upset of the green and gold? It could be, especially since the Packers have had a lot of issues despite a strong 6-3 start.
The biggest one is easily star quarterback Jordan Love’s turnover woes. Love is tied for the lead league (10 picks) despite playing in just seven games. He’s tossed at least one pick in every start this year, and doing that on the road against better than advertised Bears defense (7th in scoring, 11th in interception rate) may not go well.
Additionally, Green Bay struggles immensely with focus and execution, as they are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL. These two glaring issues could spell disaster, especially when you consider they have nabbed four of their wins by a touchdown or less.
Chicago isn’t easy to trust, but it’s arguable the Packers aren’t quite as good as their record might indicate. Divisional road games are never easy, either. The Bears are live for the upset, but a 6-point spread feels way too rich.
Indianapolis Colts (+150) vs. New York Jets (-175)
Lastly, I think it’s time to confidently bet against the New York Jets. Aaron Rodgers and co. reached a new record low with just six points in an embarrassing week 10 loss, and at 3-7, it’s almost certain that their 2024 season is cooked.
New York looked lost on offense last week, and if they can’t even put up a fight against a largely uninspiring Arizona Cardinals team with their season on life support, I can’t trust them moving forward.
New York’s defense wasn’t any better, as they got gashed all day en route to 31 points given up. This team is toast, and betting on them to win many more games at this point feels like a fool’s errand.
To be fair, trusting the Indianapolis Colts isn’t much easier. Joe Flacco hasn’t been good enough the past two weeks – so much so that some are calling for the return of benched star passer, Anthony Richardson.
Regardless of who is under center for Indy, however, they are facing a better than expected matchup, as the Jets are not scaring anyone on either side of the ball these days. You can bet on the spread here if you want to play it safe, but there’s just nothing about the Jets that makes me think they’re going to bounce back and get a win here.
Week 11 NFL Underdog Parlay
- Washington Commanders +3.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers +3
- Chicago Bears +6
- Indianapolis Colts +150
You don’t even need to bet on all of my week 11 NFL upsets to win to take home some big winnings this week. Indy is the only straight up pick I like, while the others should simply keep their respective games close.
If you piece together this specific parlay at your favorite NFL sportsbook, you could be looking at a return of $1,647 for every $100 you risk.
Want to go the extra mile and throw caution to the wind? Convert the three ATS bets to moneyline picks and the winnings could balloon to $4,920.31.
Of course, I always suggest targeting my NFL upset picks separately, as sweeping the week is often very difficult to do. If you want some more stacking options, however, check out our top NFL parlay picks for week 11.
Best NFL Underdog Picks For Week 11
Overall, I love each of my four NFL underdog picks for week 11. In terms of confidence, I feel the best about the Colts, and I also really like Chicago’s chances to play Green Bay very close at home.
Anytime you can get solid value with a home underdog, you need to consider it. Bettors get that chance with two of these week 11 upset picks, while the other two just feel like totally overlooked values.
Bet on the spreads or go harder with the moneylines if you want, but I do suggest betting on all of these games in an isolated fashion. Regardless of which NFL underdogs you bet on, make sure you use the best NFL betting sites you place your bets, and also find the best odds available online.
