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It’s onward and upward, though, as Week 16 odds have dropped at the top online sportsbooks, so now is the perfect time to get on the comeback trail.
I’ve pinpointed some NFL upset picks that I love for the week, and I’ll provide the latest odds and my reasoning for each pick. Want to get a head start on finding good plays for week 16? Be sure to also check out our Thursday Night Football betting preview.
NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | +3 (-110) | +140 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2.5 (-115) | +115 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +6 (-115) | +230 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +1.5 (-110) | +110 |
There are honestly a ton of Week 16 NFL upsets bettors should be considering. I very nearly added the Cleveland Browns to my list, but am reluctant without official word that Jameis Winston will remain under center.
You may have to simply take that dive now, as the NFL odds for that contest might move if he keeps his starting gig. That said, there’s plenty of value, whether you want to target NFL underdogs straight up or against the spread.
Feel free to roll with my top picks above now, or keep reading for a little insight as to why I like each of these plays. Of course, I am just one voice here at Scores and Stats. You should also consider using our expert sports handicapping service.
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Denver Broncos (+140) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-165)
This is an interesting spot to try to obtain some betting value, as the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers face off in what may amount to a playoff game.
Neither of these teams has a realistic shot at winning the AFC West division at this point, so both need to win as many games as possible to try to lock up a playoff spot in the AFC.
L.A. has their backs against the wall, as they are one game behind the rival Broncos and a loss here would very possibly end their season. That said, the Bolts have been banged up for weeks now, and they did not look great during a 40-17 beatdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I’d imagine Jim Harbaugh’s crew will show up for a game of this magnitude, but Denver poses a lot of problems for Los Angeles. They’re also red hot, as the Broncos have won four in a row and feel like the easier team to trust.
The Chargers get to play host, but they’re just 4-3 at home on the year. I’m taking the value here. If you’re not super excited to back Denver straight up, they feel like a solid bet (+3) ATS in a game that should be tight throughout.
Kansas City Chiefs (+115) vs. Houston Texans (-135)
If you’re not excited to chase after the Broncos at +140, you can consider another team in their division. I really don’t mind rolling the dice on the Kansas City Chiefs, with or without star quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Obviously I’d prefer he suits up, but it’s precisely his unknown status due to an ankle injury that has made the Chiefs temporary underdogs. However, the #1 seed still hangs in the balance, and this is a Sunday Night Football tilt with the Houston Texans that I doubt Mahomes will want to miss.
Assuming Mahomes suits up, the Chiefs are pretty good bets to take care of business. Houston has been a solid team at 9-5, but they’ve also been remarkably inconsistent.
The issue is you kind of have to take your stance now, while Mahomes’ week 16 status is in doubt. If you bet on KC at this price and he plays, it feels like a steal. If he’s out, you’re stuck holding the bag, but given Andy Reid’s elite coaching and their stellar defense, I think they’re capable of winning even if Mahomes doesn’t hit the field.
All things told, the Chiefs look like awesome underdogs at their +115 price tag in week 16.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Anytime I look for NFL upset picks, I try to seek out teams that look like severe discounts, or they have a lot to play for. In week 16, I tend to think you’re getting both when it comes to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh looked fairly human last week, as they didn’t put up much of a fight in a loss to inner-state rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles. That’s far from a bad loss, though, while the Steelers fell to just 10-4 on the year.
This is still a very good team that controls their destiny; with their biggest motivation being holding onto first place in the AFC North division. They already beat the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year, so a season sweep would hand them the division crown.
I don’t expect a good Ravens team to go quietly into the night, which is why I much prefer the Steelers and their +6.5 point spread. Regardless, the Steelers could get star wide receiver George Pickens back just in time to slice up a leaky Baltimore secondary.
We know the Steelers have a tough defense that can slow down Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, too. I don’t know if it’s enough to get the win, but I do think it should help keep them in another close game.
San Francisco 49ers (+110) vs. Miami Dolphins (-130)
Lastly, I really dig the +110 moneyline associated with the San Francisco 49ers this week. The Niners are admittedly on life support, but last week’s ugly 12-6 loss to the Los Angeles Rams was at least partially due to poor weather.
San Francisco still has a shot at sneaking into the playoffs, albeit with a little help. However, nobody has clinched the NFC West crown, and if things break just right, they could actually still win the division.
Any chance of that starts with a win here, as the 49ers absolutely have to win out to have a shot at a wild rally. And hey, even if the Niners are done when it comes to the playoffs, their week 16 opponent – the Miami Dolphins – are equally fried.
Miami looked poised to make an epic comeback after getting 2024 off to a slow start, but the big hole they dug themselves became too much last week in a loss to the Texans. Perhaps Miami will still be motivated to end the season strong, but they don’t match up amazingly with the 49ers.
Ultimately, I trust the 49ers a tad more than the Dolphins, and their +110 moneyline is very difficult to pass up.
Week 16 NFL Underdog Parlay
- Denver Broncos (+140)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+115)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5)
- San Francisco 49ers (+110)
As usual, I definitely suggest targeting NFL underdogs as individual bets. It’s not easy to hit upset plays – even just when betting against the spread. Hitting multiple picks – let alone four or more – can be rather risky.
When you feel good about picks with high upside, it’s hard to turn away from the potential winnings a parlay offers. You can absolutely parlay my week 16 NFL upset picks, of course, and if you do, $100 could bring you back a nice $1,925.86.
Feel free to switch or remove bets as you see fit, but with three moneyline wagers, you’re looking at considerable value if this parlay can hit. You can even push it to four moneyline bets by fully backing the Steelers and that’d turn $100 into $3,475.88.
Of course, I greatly prefer betting on the Steelers to beat the spread this week. And if I had to choose, I’d just bet on my week 15 NFL underdogs one by one.
If you’d like even more bets – not to mention some nice parlay picks – we’ve got you covered. Be sure to stop by our post on NFL parlay picks for week 16, too.
Best NFL Underdog Picks For Week 16
I like all of these NFL upset plays for week 16. In particular, the Chiefs are an interesting value with the status of Patrick Mahomes unknown. They’d be a smash value pick if he plays, and with their game at home, I don’t really hate the dice roll, regardless.
Denver is fighting for a playoff spot and is a very interesting upset pick against a division rival, too. I also love the spread associated with the Steelers, while the desperate 49ers look like a fun underdog try. That does it for my look at week 16 NFL underdogs. If you want more betting advice or opportunities to win big this week, check out our favorite NFL player prop bets for week 16.
