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The goal is to point you to some more elite betting value as we look over the 2025 NFL Divisional Round odds. Of course, as we advance in the NFL playoffs it’s important to consider that upsets are harder to come by.
Due to that, simply creating this post takes on some risk, so while I like the teams below in terms of their chances to stage an upset, it’s not a given. That is one reason why I’d suggest either betting on the spread for the most part, or simply going with the upset pick that calls to you the most.
NFL Divisional Round Underdog Picks
| Team | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +8 (-110) | +340 |
| Washington Commanders | +9.5 (-110) | +390 |
| Buffalo Bills | +1 (-115) | -105 |
The NFL odds are up for the second round of the playoffs, and there really are no surprises here. The favorites are all priced as the likely winners for a reason, with the only questionable thing being the actual point spread.
There are certainly some advantageous spots here, whether you’re looking to bet against the spread or hoping to target a legit upset play. You can roll with my favorite NFL underdogs above, but I’ll break them down further – and let you know my preferred way to bet on them this weekend.
Of course, I am just one voice here at Scores and Stats. We have a bunch of terrific NFL betting experts, as well as elite offerings. You can test it all out for free via our sports handicapping service.
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NFL Picks: Your Weekly Winning Edge
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Houston Texans (+8) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
The Houston Texans aren’t the best upset pick for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, but that’s only because they have to face the defending Super Bowl champions.
On paper, though, the Kansas City Chiefs should be on upset alert. Obviously Kansas City has their sights set on history in trying to become the first NFL team ever to pull off a three-peat, but there’s a good amount working against them.
First, the long layoff. Kansas City enjoyed their first round playoff by like all #1 seeded teams do in the NFL, but let’s not forget they also sat their key starters in their week 18 regular season finale.
Realistically, this team hasn’t played since Christmas Day. That is an unprecedented length of time without playing any meaningful snaps.
Secondly, it’s pretty arguable this is the worst #1 seed we have seen in some time. Sure, Kansas City has compiled a nice-looking record, but they’ve had numerous close games, and rarely have they actually looked dominant.
Lastly, this Houston team has some spunk. The connection between CJ Stroud and Nico Collins is enough to scare you, but dynamic running back Joe Mixon gives Houston a pretty balanced offense, too. On top of that, the Texans put their stingy defense on full display this past weekend, where they picked off Justin Herbert four times in a dominant effort.
Is it possible Stroud and co. put up points and make the Chiefs sweat? Yeah, it is. Could KC be super rusty after not playing for so long? Most definitely? Whether any of that leads to a straight up win or not remains to be seen, but it’s all enough to get me to back Houston against the spread.
Washington Commanders (+9.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-9.5)
The Washington Commanders have an even thicker spread as large underdogs facing the two-loss Detroit Lions. The Lions own the #1 seed in the conference and are fully expected to at least advance to the NFC Championship game, but this line still feels a little rich.
One issue is the fact that Detroit could be a bit rusty after taking the week off. The Lions are fully capable of crushing Washington’s spirits in round two, but their defense is definitely a weak link. The Lions have stopped the run well on the year, but they have given up a lot of production through the air.
More problematic, though, is their inability to silence mobile passers. They’ve given up the fourth most rushing yards to quarterbacks on the year, and Jayden Daniels is arguably the most explosive runner they’ve faced at the position all year.
Remember their game against Josh Allen? Yeah, there could be a blueprint for the Lions to get knocked off here, and Washington has a dynamic enough offense to possibly give the Lions a good sweat.
I doubt the Commanders actually win and punch their ticket to the NFC title game, but it’s hard not to be a believer in Daniels. On top of that, Washington has a feisty defense and happens to own the league’s 6th best sack rate.
If the Commanders can generate pressure up front, who is to say Jared Goff can’t have one of his classic implosion games? Washington may not win, but they sure can beat this egregious 9.5-point spread.
Buffalo Bills (-105) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-115)
Lastly, we have the Buffalo Bills, who look like a reasonable bet to sneak past the Baltimore Ravens. This doubles as not just a great matchup between two title contenders, but also an NFL MVP face-off with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson waging war.
This game was not close at all when the two sides banged heads earlier this year, but that one showdown doesn’t tell us who will win here. The Bills arguably have the inferior defense, but they do tend to limit their opponents (8th in defensive scoring), and we know their offense can roll with anyone.
Buffalo flat out neutralizing both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry seems unlikely, especially since they enjoyed a ton of success in the first meeting. That said, it’s possible the Bills run defense (8th overall) does enough to force one of them to win the game.
Historically, Lamar Jackson has struggled in postseason play, too. If the Bills can stuff Henry up front and turn Jackson into a drop-back passer, it’s possible they can get to him and control this game.
More than anything, though, I’d be willing to bet on Josh Allen doing as he pleases against a Ravens defense that has struggled to defend the pass all year. Additionally, Buffalo has more of a no-name offense, making it a little harder for Baltimore to focus on stopping one specific weapon.
Overall, this game feels like a toss up. Lamar Jackson is trying to finally nudge his Ravens back to the Super Bowl, but Allen has been closing in on his first title run for years. Another Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes meeting is so close we all can taste it, and the Bills at -105 is simply too good to pass up.
NFL Divisional Round Underdog Parlay
- Houston Texans (+8)
- Washington Commanders (+9.5)
- Buffalo Bills (-105)
The Kansas City Chiefs are well rested, but they might be a bit too well rested for my liking. I don’t think they will lose outright, but they are definitely in a danger zone here.
Due to that, the Houston Texans – who are feeling awfully good about themselves and look tough defensively – are live for the upset. I don’t think that happens, but this spread is a bit too long, so I’d hammer the Texans side of it.
The same goes for the Commanders. They obviously barely got out of the first round, but winning (and playing in) close games is kind of their bag. Washington not only plays in and excels in tight contests, but they also simply don’t get blown out.
With the week off, it’s arguable the Lions could come out not quite as sharp as usual, too. All things told, the Commanders have a really thick spread and look like another team worth backing ATS.
Lastly, the Bills are my pick to make it to the Super Bowl, so naturally I have them reaching the AFC Championship game. Ipso facto, I will be picking them straight up in the Divisional Round.
Like always – especially with the options shrinking – I do suggest targeting these games individually. That said, this exact parlay can bring back $611.57 for every $100 risked as constructed, or you can play for $4,109 if you bet on all three moneylines together.
For more parlay advice, check out resident NFL betting expert Rick Rockwell’s NFL parlay picks for this week.
Best NFL Underdog Picks For the Divisional Round
It isn’t easy to hit NFL upset picks. It gets harder in the first round of the NFL playoffs, and it gets even more difficult in round two. Even so, the NFL upset picks above look good to me and I think we can still take advantage of this week’s NFL betting slate.
While true, there are a lot of ways to bet on pro football during the postseason.This week’s NFL underdogs are plenty inviting, but there’s more ways to cash in on the Divisional Round. Stop by our NFL predictions for the second round of the playoffs to learn about more betting options.
