2024 NFL Week 4 Odds and Predictions

Time flies, doesn’t it? Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season is already upon us, which means we’re already closing in on the quarter pole of the campaign. Offense is still down around the NFL, and we’ve seen what feels like an incredible number of upsets on a weekly basis.

Week 4 offers a full slate of games kicking off with an NFC East rivalry clash between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. We’ll also cap our football weekend with our second straight Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Miami Dolphins will play host to the Tennessee Titans in the early game, while the Seattle Seahawks will visit the Detroit Lions in the nightcap.

As always, we’ve got you covered with comprehensive NFL Week 4 odds and predictions for every game on the docket. Our in-depth analysis will help you make informed picks, whether you’re betting straight up, against the spread, or considering over/under totals.

Here’s how we’re approaching the Week 4 matchups. Read on for our favorite NFL picks from each game.

NFL Week 4 Schedule

NFL Week 4 Predictions

Let’s take a look and make our favorite NFL picks for each game on the Week 4 docket.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Odds

The NFC East rivalry between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants takes center stage in Week 4, with both teams needing a win to stabilize their seasons. After starting the year 1-2, the Cowboys are coming off two consecutive losses where offensive inefficiency and defensive breakdowns were evident. The Cowboys will have to recalibrate their offense, which has struggled with consistency. CeeDee Lamb is also off to an uncharacteristically slow start after missing all of training camp due to a contract holdout.

Lamb’s frustration boiled over in the Cowboys’ Week 3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, as he was seen getting into a verbal confrontation with Dak Prescott on the sidelines during the game. While Prescott nearly led Dallas to a remarkable come-from-behind victory after falling into an early hole, Lamb finished the game with just 4 catches for 67 yards.

Running the ball is going to be an issue for Dallas all season long. After failing to address the departure of Tony Pollard this offseason, the Cowboys are averaging just 73.7 rushing yards per game through 3 weeks. No Dallas rusher has topped 32 yards in either of the last 2 games.

The Giants, meanwhile, pulled off an upset in Week 3 with a gritty win over Cleveland, showing resilience that hadn’t been apparent during their uninspired 0-2 start. Daniel Jones has done a nice job of protecting the football after throwing a couple of interceptions in Week 1, and he’s established a fast rapport with rookie wideout Malik Nabers. Through 3 games, Nabers has 23 catches on 37 targets for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. He found the end zone twice in New York’s surprising Week 3 win in Cleveland against a stifling Browns defense.

To beat Dallas, the Giants may need to get the ground game going. Devin Singletary has proven to be a useful replacement for Saquon Barkley, as he’s averaged 4.7 yards per carry with a couple of touchdowns to this point. The Cowboys have also been the league’s worst defense against the run to this point, so it would make sense for New York to try and exploit that weakness.

Defensively, the Cowboys must show more consistency, especially after their defensive unit was gashed by Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry over the past couple of games. The Giants’ offensive line, while improved, still struggles against top-tier pass rushers, making Dallas’ front seven a key factor in this matchup. On the Giants’ side, their secondary has played well, but covering Dallas’ dynamic receiving corps will still be a challenge, particularly if Prescott finds his form.

This game will likely hinge on how well the Giants’ defense can contain the Cowboys’ passing game. If the Giants can force turnovers and control the clock with Singletary, they have a shot to keep this close. However, the Cowboys’ superior talent across the board makes them the favorites.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Predictions

Spread: Cowboys -4.5 (-115)

• Dallas’ need for a bounce-back game combined with their offensive firepower makes them a decent candidate to cover the spread.

Moneyline: Cowboys -225, Giants +185

• The Cowboys are the safer pick on the moneyline, but the Giants have some underdog value at home for those who like riskier plays.

Total: 43.5

• Given the potential for turnovers and offensive struggles, the under looks appealing. Thursday Night Football games tend to be slugfests, as well.

Betting Trends:

• Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Giants.
• Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 Cowboys-Giants matchups.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers Odds

The Cincinnati Bengals enter Week 4 down in the dumps amid an 0-3 start. Cincinnati lost at home to Washington on Monday despite entering the game as sizable favorites. This matchup at Carolina is a game they should win, but we’ve said that about their games against the Patriots and Commanders, too.

Burrow put up big numbers on Monday, but the defense couldn’t do anything to slow down Jayden Daniels and Washington’s offense. Tee Higgins did make his season debut on Monday, though, and Burrow’s connection with Ja’Marr Chase is as deadly as ever. The offense doesn’t look like it’ll be a problem, even if the running back tandem of Zack Moss and Chase Brown isn’t all that imposing on paper.

The Panthers got a big win on Sunday in Las Vegas thanks to the exploits of Andy Dalton, who replaced the benched Bryce Young. Dalton looked terrific, as he gashed the hapless Raiders defense for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns without a turnover in Carolina’s easy 36-22 victory. The Panthers also got a big game from running back Chuba Hubbard, who went off for 114 rushing yards with a couple of TDs.

Defensively, the Panthers are in a tough spot, especially when it comes to their secondary, which will have to find a way to slow down Chase and Higgins. Carolina’s defense has given up big plays, and they’ll need to shore that up to stand any chance against a Bengals offense that thrives on explosive gains. On the flip side, Cincinnati’s defense has been atrocious, especially in terms of generating pressure on opposing QBs. This game has sneaky shootout potential.

The Bengals are favorites on the road, but the line has already moved toward the Panthers. Cincinnati opened as a 6.5-point favorite, yet the spread is now Bengals -4.5.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers Predictions

Spread: Bengals -4.5 (-110)

• With Burrow in command and Carolina’s defensive struggles, the Bengals should be able to cover the spread.

Moneyline: Bengals -205, Panthers +170

• Cincinnati is the clear favorite, and a Panthers upset is unlikely given their issues on both sides of the ball.

Total: 44.5

• Cincinnati’s offense could push the score over, especially if Carolina can put some points on the board late.

Betting Trends:

• Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The total has gone over in 5 of the Bengals’ last 7 games.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets Odds

The New York Jets head into Week 4 fresh off of back-to-back wins, and they’ll look to ride a hot defense in this matchup against the Denver Broncos. After a shaky Week 1 showing in Santa Clara, the Jets have leaned heavily on their defensive front, which has been able to control games by limiting both the run and the pass. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had the spectacular start many expected, but he’s been efficient enough to lead the offense when needed. Facing the Broncos, Rodgers and the Jets’ offense will be expected to do enough to support their dominant defense.

Rodgers did bounce back a bit in the Jets’ Week 3 win over the Patriots. The former MVP completed 27 of his 35 throws for 281 yards and 2 touchdowns as New York breezed to an easy 24-3 victory. Rodgers’ connection with Garrett Wilson has been slow to develop, but this offense can control the clock via the ground game. Breece Hall has scored a touchdown in every game to this point, while rookie Braelon Allen looks like a revelation. Allen is averaging a robust 5.1 yards per carry playing primarily as a change-of-pace option behind Hall.

The Broncos have had a weird start to the season. Rookie Bo Nix has been inconsistent, and Denver’s offense has struggled to put together sustained drives. However, the Broncos went down to Tampa in Week 3 and came away with a shockingly easy 26-7 upset win over the Buccaneers. Nix still hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass through 3 games, but he and Jaleel McLaughlin both found the end zone with their legs on Sunday afternoon.

Running the ball will be key if Denver is to pull off another surprising win this week. The Broncos found success by averaging 4.9 yards per carry as a team against Tampa Bay, but it’ll be tougher sledding this week against a Jets defense that completely stifled Rhamondre Stevenson and the New England attack in Week 3.

Defensively, Denver has been porous, particularly against the run, which is an area where the Jets could exploit them with Hall and Allen. The Broncos have also given up big plays in the secondary, something that Rodgers will look to take advantage of. Unless Denver’s defense can make dramatic improvements, it’s hard to see them keeping the Jets from controlling this game.

Given the way these two teams have been playing, the Jets should be able to rely on their defense to dominate this game. If Rodgers can put together a couple of touchdown drives, New York should comfortably cover the spread.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets Predictions

Spread: Jets -7.5 (-110)

• The Jets’ defense should be able to overwhelm Nix a struggling Broncos offense, allowing them to cover the 7.5-point spread.

Moneyline: Jets -400, Broncos +325

• The Jets are heavy favorites, and it’s difficult to see the Broncos pulling off the upset.

Total: 38.5

• With the Jets’ defense in control, this game is likely to hit the under, especially if Denver struggles to put points on the board.

Betting Trends:

• Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs.
• Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The total has gone under in 6 of the Jets’ last 8 games.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

The Philadelphia Eagles travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4, a rematch from last year’s NFC playoff showdown. The Eagles come into this game looking sharp, having rebounded from early-season injuries to pull off a dramatic win in New Orleans in Week 3.

Injuries could be an issue again this week, however. AJ Brown is still dealing with a hamstring injury that’s kept him sidelined for back-to-back games. Philly also lost both DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson to concussions against the Saints, which puts their statuses in question for this game in Tampa Bay.

Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert led Philly to victory against the Saints. Barkley went off for 147 rushing yards and a pair of TDs, while Goedert set a new career-high with 170 receiving yards on 10 receptions. With Brown and Smith potentially sidelined for this one, Jalen Hurts may again have to rely heavily on these 2 to help carry the offense.

Tampa Bay is coming off a disheartening home loss where their offensive line struggled to protect Baker Mayfield. Mayfield was sacked 7 times in Week 3, exposing weaknesses in pass protection that the Eagles’ formidable defensive line will look to exploit. Mayfield threw for just 163 yards with a touchdown after accounting for 5 combined touchdowns through Weeks 1 and 2.

Rachaad White is off to a slow start, and it sounds as though rookie Bucky Irving may be primed to take on a heavier workload. Todd Bowles said after Sunday’s game that Irving has earned more playing time, and we could see that starting in this matchup. So far this season, Irving has carried the ball 25 times for 154 yards (6.2 yards per carry). White, meanwhile, has plodded his way to just 66 yards on 31 attempts (2.1 YPC).

Defensively, the Bucs have been decent, but they’ve been vulnerable to big plays, particularly through the air. If they can’t apply pressure to Hurts, Philadelphia’s explosive offense could dictate the tempo. Tampa’s best chance will be to control the clock and avoid a shootout by slowing down the Eagles’ offensive rhythm.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Predictions

Spread: Eagles -2.5 (-110)

• With their balanced offense and defensive front, the Eagles should be able to cover the 2.5-point spread against a vulnerable Bucs defense.

Moneyline: Eagles -148, Buccaneers +126

• The Eagles are the safer pick given their firepower on both sides of the ball, but Tampa Bay could keep it close if they improve protection.

Total: 47.5

• With both teams capable of scoring in bunches, the over looks like a solid play, especially if Hurts and Mayfield trade big plays.

Betting Trends:

• Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• Buccaneers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• The total has gone over in 5 of the last 7 meetings between the Eagles and Buccaneers.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Odds

The Houston Texans host the Jacksonville Jaguars in what could be a fun AFC South battle. Houston has shown flashes of brilliance behind quarterback C.J. Stroud, though the offense’s production was non-existent in their disastrous 34-7 loss in Minnesota in Week 3. They’re in a solid bounce-back spot this week against a less formidable Jacksonville defense at home. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are 0-3 after getting demolished by the Bills on Monday night.

Houston was without star running back Joe Mixon on Sunday, and it showed. The Texans – led primarily by Cam Akers – rushed for just 2.7 yards per carry as a team. The lack of running game put more pressure on Stroud, who threw his first 2 interceptions of the season in a game Houston never led. This is still one of the league’s most formidable offenses on paper, and I’m expecting a significantly better showing in Week 4.

The Jags come in as underdogs, and while their offense has the potential for explosive plays with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, they’ve been inconsistent. Amid an 0-3 start, head coach Doug Pederson is likely on the hot seat. Lawrence will need to play efficiently to keep the Jaguars in the game, as Houston’s defense is one of the game’s more underrated units. Jacksonville’s offensive line will need to protect Lawrence better than they have in recent weeks to prevent Houston’s pass rush, led by rookie Will Anderson Jr., from causing havoc.

Defensively, Jacksonville will have to focus on containing Stroud and limiting the Texans’ deep passing game. If they can force Houston into making early mistakes, it could open up opportunities for the Jaguars to take control. However, Houston’s improving defense could make things tough for Lawrence and company. I’ve seen nothing from Jacksonville thus far that leads me to believe they’re on the verge of figuring things out.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans Predictions

Spread: Texans -4.5 (-110)

• Houston has been playing better football and should be able to cover the spread at home with their balanced offense.

Moneyline: Texans -220, Jaguars +184

• Houston is the safer moneyline pick, but Jacksonville’s upset potential can’t be ignored if they can clean up their offensive mistakes.

Total: 45.5

• Both offenses have potential to put up points, so the over seems like a solid option in this divisional matchup.

Betting Trends:

• Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the Texans.
• The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 meetings between Jacksonville and Houston.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

The Minnesota Vikings travel to face their NFC North rivals, the Green Bay Packers, in a matchup that could have early division implications. The Vikings have relied on their dynamic passing game, led by quarterback Sam Darnold and star wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Minnesota’s offense has shown it can put up points, and the defense has been an early surprise. Minnesota has held a couple of high-octane offenses – the 49ers and Texans – to just 24 combined points over the past 2 games.

Darnold’s play has been the big surprise. The Former No. 3 overall pick has bounced around the league, but he seems to have found a home in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Darnold put up a masterclass of a performance on Sunday, completing 17 of his 28 passes for 181 yards and 4 touchdowns against a talented Houston defense. The Vikings have also gotten excellent production out of former Packer Aaron Jones. Jones – who left Green Bay this past offseason – has carried the ball 42 times for 228 yards with a couple of touchdowns in his first 3 games with the Vikings.

The Packers are 2-1 on the young season, which is quite the positive development after Jordan Love went down with a knee injury back in Week 1. Matt LaFleur has been arguably the NFL’s most underrated coach for years, but we should finally give him his flowers. Green Bay has won both games since Love went down thanks to a couple of spirited showings from backup Malik Willis. The former Titans castoff has acquitted himself well with 324 passing yards and 3 total touchdowns in his 2 wins over the Colts and Titans.

Love was reportedly on the verge of returning to the lineup in Week 3, so there’s a good chance he’ll be back on the field for Green Bay ahead of this rivalry clash. The odds (Packers -3) indicate oddsmakers expect Love to start this game.

This game will likely be decided by which defense can make key stops. If the Vikings can protect Darnold and create separation with Jefferson, they have a strong chance of covering the spread. On the flip side, Green Bay will look to control the tempo and keep Minnesota’s high-powered offense off the field.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions

Spread: Vikings +3 (-118)

• In a close divisional game, Minnesota’s ability to score points gives them a strong chance to cover the spread.

Moneyline: Packers -142, Vikings +120

• Green Bay is favored at home, but the Vikings’ offense has the firepower to pull off an upset.

Total: 43.5

• Given both offenses’ ability to put up points, the over seems like a solid play.

Betting Trends:

• Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
• The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 meetings between the Vikings and Packers.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds

The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Indy to face the Indianapolis Colts in what could be a tightly contested matchup. The Steelers have leaned on their defense to carry them through the season, with T.J. Watt leading the charge as one of the NFL’s most disruptive pass rushers. Pittsburgh has been able to muster just enough offensively to get off to an impressive 3-0 start with victories over the Falcons, Broncos, and Chargers to begin the ’24 campaign.

Justin Fields hasn’t put up huge numbers, but he’s been impressive after struggling to begin his career with the Bears. The Ohio State product has completed a whopping 73.3 percent of his pass attempts for 518 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. Perhaps what’s most impressive is Fields has been able to move the ball without relying too heavily on his legs. Fields has just 90 rushing yards on 28 attempts. If he can eventually revive that aspect of his game, this offense has the potential to raise some eyebrows.

Indianapolis has dealt with offensive inconsistencies. Anthony Richardson has shown flashes of brilliance, but accuracy remains a question mark. His accuracy was his primary weakness coming out of college, and I’ve seen nothing so far that tells me he’s figured it out. Richardson has completed less than half of his pass attempts this season for 583 yards with 3 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. Like Fields, Richardson is athletic enough to change a game with his legs, but he hasn’t scored a rushing TD since Indy’s Week 1 loss to Houston.

That said, the Colts did beat the Bears to pick up their first win of the season on Sunday. Richardson struggled, but Jonathan Taylor reminded us why he’s a former NFL rushing champ. Taylor racked up 110 yards on 23 carries with 2 TDs as Indy beat Chicago, 21-16.

The Colts’ success largely depends on how well their offensive line protects Richardson and how effectively running back Jonathan Taylor can control the ground game. Defensively, the Colts have been solid but will need to pressure Fields into making mistakes. So far, Fields has done an excellent job of protecting the football.

This game will likely be a defensive battle, with both teams relying on their defenses to control the tempo. Pittsburgh’s experience and strong pass rush give them the slight edge, but if Richardson can limit turnovers and make plays with his legs, the Colts have a chance to pull off an upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Predictions

Spread: Steelers -1.5 (-112)

• With their superior defense, the Steelers should be able to cover the spread, although it could be a close game.

Moneyline: Steelers -125, Colts +105

• The Steelers are the favorites, but the Colts’ upset potential is notable if Richardson plays mistake-free football.

Total: 40

• This game is shaping up to be a low-scoring, defensive struggle, making the under the better bet.

Betting Trends:

• Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites.
• Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The total has gone under in 5 of the last 7 Steelers-Colts matchups.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears Odds

The Chicago Bears host the Los Angeles Rams in a battle of 1-2 teams. The Bears’ start to the season has been frustrating, to say the least. You can see glimpses of potential, but they’ve been undone by poor play-calling and almost no production from the run game.

Even in a loss to the Colts, rookie QB Caleb Williams had what was easily the best game of his young career in Week 3. The former No. 1 overall pick completed 33 of his 52 throws for 363 yards with a couple of touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Those were the first 2 touchdown passes of Williams’ career, and he was nearly able to lead the Bears to another impressive comeback victory.

Fellow rookie Rome Odunze (6 catches, 112 yards, TD) also had a breakout game. Unfortunately, the Bears need to figure out how to run the ball. The team added D’Andre Swift this offseason in an attempt to bolster the rushing attack, but Swift has been horrific. Following his 13-carry, 20-yard showing on Sunday, Swift now has just 68 rushing yards on 37 attempts for the season. That comes out to an average of 1.8 yards per tote, which will not get it done. Don’t be surprised if Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert start to take Swift’s playing time.

The Los Angeles Rams have had an inconsistent start to the season, but Sunday’s win over the 49ers was incredibly impressive. Despite playing without All-Pro wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, Los Angeles pulled off an upset 27-24 win over the reigning NFC champs. Matthew Stafford put up a characteristically gusty effort, while Kyren Williams scored 3 touchdowns and topped 100 scrimmage yards.

However, the Rams’ offensive line has been shaky, which could be problematic against Chicago’s pass rush. Stafford has already been sacked 10 times this season, including 3 times on Sunday.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, but this game could come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. Williams has the advantage of being able to create plays with his legs, but Stafford’s experience and the Rams’ elite coaching means they could find themselves in a position to pick up a win on the road.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears Predictions

Spread: Bears -2.5 (+100)

• In a game that could go either way, taking the points with the Rams to cover is a solid option, especially with Stafford’s experience.

Moneyline: Bears -135, Rams +114

• The Bears are slight favorites at home, but the Rams’ upset potential is high if Stafford can avoid turnovers.

Total: 41

• Both teams have shown inconsistency on offense, making the under a strong play here.

Betting Trends:

• Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 matchups between these two teams.

San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots Odds

The San Francisco 49ers look to get back into the win column as they face the scuffling New England Patriots in Week 4. The Niners blew an early lead to lose in heartbreaking fashion to the Rams in Week 3, while the Patriots were humiliated on Thursday Night Football by the Jets. This game has the largest spread on the slate, as San Francisco is listed as a massive 10.5-point road favorite in Foxborough.

The 49ers have some injury issues. Christian McCaffrey is on injured reserve, while Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both sat out in Week 3. San Francisco still nearly pulled off a win over the Rams thanks to the incredible effort of Jauan Jennings. Jennings had a career day, catching 11 passes for 175 yards and 3 touchdowns in the defeat. San Francisco is still looking to get Brandon Aiyuk on track, however. After a contract holdout kept him sidelined through the preseason, Aiyuk has just 11 catches for 119 yards through 3 games.

Jordan Mason also came crashing back to earth after impressing as the starter in place of McCaffrey in Weeks 1 and 2. The Rams held Mason to just 77 yards on 19 carries, and he failed to find the end zone for the first time this season. He’ll look to get back on track this week against a New England defense that let Breece Hall and Braelon Allen run all over them last week.

The Patriots were expected to struggle coming into the year, and they’ve done just that. After a shocking win in Week 1 in Cincinnati, the Pats have lost back-to-back games to the Seahawks and Jets.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett hasn’t gotten anything going, and Patriots fans are already calling for rookie Drake Maye. Brissett has completed 60 percent of his throws for a paltry 368 yards through 3 games. Maye took his first career snaps in Week 3 after the game was already out of hand, but Jerod Mayo said afterward that Brissett will get the nod again in Week 4.

Against a formidable 49ers defense, New England’s offensive line will need to play their best game to give Brissett any chance of success. Rhamondre Stevenson will also be crucial, as the Patriots will need to establish the run to have any hope of keeping the game close. Stevenson was a non-factor against the Jets, gaining just 23 yards on 6 carries with a lost fumble.

Defensively, the Patriots have been solid but haven’t been able to compensate for the lack of offensive production. Facing a balanced San Francisco attack, they’ll need to force turnovers and pressure Purdy into making mistakes. Without that, this could be a long day for New England.

San Francisco 49ers vs. New England Patriots Predictions

Spread: 49ers -10.5 (-110)

• San Francisco has been dominant on both sides of the ball and should be able to cover the large spread against a punchless New England offense.

Moneyline: 49ers -590, Patriots +440

• The 49ers are the clear favorites, and while the Patriots have a longshot chance, it’s highly unlikely they’ll pull off the upset.

Total: 40.5

• With San Francisco’s defense shutting down New England’s struggling offense, the under is a strong bet here.

Betting Trends:

• 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 Patriots-49ers matchups.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds

The Atlanta Falcons will host the New Orleans Saints in a classic NFC South rivalry. The Falcons, with Kirk Cousins under center, fell to 1-2 on the year with a home loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. While the offense looks better overall, it’s clear Cousins is still getting on the same page with his new teammates.

He has 626 passing yards through 3 games, but he’s also thrown 3 interceptions. Drake London has scored touchdowns in each of the last 2 games following a quiet season opener, though Kyle Pitts is still getting going. Pitts – the former first-round pick out of Florida – only has 8 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown so far this season.

The Falcons are better than their record shows, and I’ll be surprised if they don’t ultimately emerge as the winners of what looks like a mediocre division.

The Saints’ offense exploded for 40-plus points in their first 2 games, but they came crashing back to earth with a Week 3 home loss to the Eagles. New Orleans mustered just 12 points against a fairly underwhelming Philadelphia defense. After racking up 5 total touchdowns through the first couple of games, Alvin Kamara averaged just 3.3 yards per carry and failed to find paydirt on Sunday.

Kamara’s production will be critical for New Orleans, both in the running and passing games. The Saints’ defense, one of the league’s better units, will need to focus on limiting Robinson and forcing Cousins into third-and-long situations, where he’s more prone to mistakes. Getting pressure on Cousins will also be important, and the Falcons are dealing with a few injuries along the offensive line. If the Saints can force Cousins to make quick decisions, they could pull off the upset here.

This game will likely come down to which team can control the line of scrimmage. Atlanta’s rushing attack will look to dominate, while the Saints will try to use their more well-rounded offensive approach to spread the Falcons’ defense thin. Expect a physical, low-scoring affair typical of NFC South matchups.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions

Spread: Falcons -1.5 (-110)

• Atlanta’s ground game gives them the edge, but this is a close matchup that could go either way.

Moneyline: Falcons -125, Saints +105

• The Falcons are the slight favorites at home, but the Saints have plenty of upset potential if Carr can avoid mistakes.

Total: 44

• This game has the makings of a potential shootout, so the over is a strong play, especially given the rivalry.

Betting Trends:

• Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The total has gone under in 6 of the last 8 matchups between these two teams.

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds

The Arizona Cardinals will host the Washington Commanders in a Week 4 matchup that could have significant implications for both teams.

The Cardinals have been pesky with quarterback Kyler Murray returning to form and providing a dangerous dual-threat option for their offense. Arizona’s passing game impressed through 2 games but struggled in Week 3 against Detroit. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been as advertised thus far, though Trey McBride is off to a slow start after his breakout 2023 campaign. MHJ has 3 touchdowns over the past 2 games combined, but McBride has only totaled 122 receiving yards without a score to this point. If the Cardinals can keep Murray upright, they should be able to exploit a Commanders defense that has struggled in pass coverage over the past few seasons.

The Commanders are awfully impressive, which is a surprising development for a young team with a first-year head coach in Dan Quinn. Jayden Daniels is the early frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the Commanders are 2-1 on the heels of Monday’s upset win in Cincinnati.

Daniels played a perfect game against the Bengals in just his third NFL start. The former Heisman Trophy winner completed better than 91 percent of his passes for 254 yards with 2 passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for 39 yards and added a rushing TD. Washington hasn’t punted the ball in either of their last 2 games, so this offense looks like the real deal.

Washington also got standout receiver Terry McLaurin involved after an inauspicious start to the campaign. Scary Terry caught 4 passes for 100 yards and the game-winning touchdown against the Bengals after totaling just 39 receiving yards across Week1 and 2 combined.

On defense, the Commanders’ front four will need to pressure Murray if they are to stand a chance at disrupting Arizona’s offense. I don’t really like their chances of doing so, however, as the Washington defense has been gashed through the air by Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, and Joe Burrow thus far.

The key to this game will be whether Washington can slow down Arizona’s explosive offense. If the Commanders can establish their running game and limit turnovers, they may be able to keep it close. However, the Cardinals have too many weapons on offense and are tough to beat at home. I like both teams to put points on the board in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals Predictions

Spread: Cardinals -3.5 (-110)

• Arizona’s offense, led by Murray, should be able to cover the spread, especially with Washington’s inconsistencies on both sides of the ball.

Moneyline: Cardinals -185, Commanders +154

• Arizona is the safer pick at home, though the Commanders’ upset potential can’t be completely dismissed if they can control the tempo.

Total: 48.5

• With Arizona’s explosive offense, the over is appealing, but Washington’s struggles may keep the total under.

Betting Trends:

• Commanders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers in a pivotal AFC West showdown. The Chiefs, fresh off their 2nd consecutive Super Bowl victory last season, have been resilient through the early weeks of 2024. Kansas City is off to a 3-0 start despite not having played all that well in any of their games.

Is Travis Kelce washed? We shall see. The future Hall-of-Famer has been minimally involved in the KC offense to this point as Patrick Mahomes continues to lead the charge. Kelce has just 8 catches for 69 yards on 12 targets. He’s been a dynamic enough player over the years to where there’s certainly a chance he’ll come around, but he’s also 34 years old with a lot of mileage on the tires.

Mahomes’ primary target thus far has been Rashee Rice, who is building on what was an impressive showing as a rookie in ’23. Rice has 23 catches (29 targets) for 288 yards and a pair of receiving touchdowns through 3 games. He also added a rushing score in Kansas City’s road win in Atlanta on Sunday night. Mahomes will continue to have a lot on his shoulders with leading rusher Isiah Pacheco sidelined for the next several weeks. Backups Carson Steele and Samaje Perine both averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 23 combined attempts in Sunday’s game.

The Los Angeles Chargers enter this game with significant injuries on both sides of the ball, most notably to quarterback Justin Herbert, who is questionable after suffering an ankle injury in Week 3. Herbert’s absence or limited capacity could spell trouble for the Bolts, who haven’t been a particularly dynamic offense despite a 2-1 start. This will also be the Bolts’ third consecutive road game after playing their season opener at SoFi Stadium back in Week 1. The loss of edge rusher Joey Bosa has also weakened their defense, and the Chargers will have a hard time containing Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offensive attack without him.

If Herbert misses this game, the Chargers will presumably start Taylor Heinicke under center. Heinicke – a well-traveled veteran – only attempted 2 passes and took 3 sacks in Los Angeles’ 20-10 loss in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. LA also couldn’t get the ground game going after having a ton of success with J.K. Dobbins in the season’s first 2 games. The Chargers rushed the ball 20 times for just 61 yards in Pittsburgh.

For the Chargers to stay competitive, they will need Dobbins to have a standout performance. The former Raven has been the focal point of the offense, and his ability to break through Kansas City’s defensive line will be critical in keeping the game within reach. Additionally, the Chargers’ secondary will need to play their best game of the season to slow down Mahomes and limit the explosive plays the Chiefs are known for.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Predictions

Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (-110)

• With the Chargers dealing with injuries and Kansas City back at home, the Chiefs should be able to cover the spread.

Moneyline: Chiefs -430, Chargers +340

• Kansas City is the heavy favorite here, and while the Chargers could surprise with a late-game rally, it’s hard to bet against the Chiefs at home.

Total: 38.5

• Given the Chiefs’ firepower and the Chargers’ defensive struggles, the over looks like a solid play, especially if Mahomes finds his rhythm early.

Betting Trends:

• Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Chargers.
• Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of the last 6 Chiefs-Chargers matchups.

Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

The Cleveland Browns visit the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4, and both teams are in desperate need of a win. The Browns have been a frustrating team to watch, as their offense, led by Deshaun Watson, has been pathetic. Watson has had issues with turnovers and hasn’t found a rhythm with his wide receivers. The Browns also haven’t been able to consistently run the football, which is quite the problem given Watson’s overall ineffectiveness.

Fortunately for the Browns, they did finally get Amari Cooper going in Sunday’s loss to the Giants. Cooper scored a pair of touchdowns and set a new season-high with 86 yards receiving. That was a welcome showing after Cooper was held below 20 receiving yards in each of the season’s first 2 games.

While Cleveland should be able to bounce back against a poorly-coached Raiders team, it’s hard to have a ton of faith in Watson. He was sacked a whopping 8 times by the Giants on Sunday, and the Browns rushed for less than 4 yards per carry as a team. If the Raiders’ defense can force the Browns into a pass-heavy approach, Cleveland may have an issue scoring points once again.

The Raiders have been largely woeful to begin the season. Las Vegas is off to a 1-2 start, and their lone win came in their toughest matchup of the season at Baltimore in Week 2. The Raiders fell to the Chargers in Week 1 before they were absolutely dismantled by Andy Dalton and the Panthers at home on Sunday. The Raiders allowed the veteran journeyman to throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns against them, while the Vegas offense was able to muster very little against Carolina’s defense.

We’ll see what Antonio Pierce decides to do with his starting quarterback in this one. Gardner Minshew hasn’t been able to move the ball with any consistency, while the Raiders as a team are averaging just 2.8 yards per carry. Zamir White has been atrocious, while Alexander Mattison hasn’t been much more productive. We saw Pierce give Aidan O’Connell a few snaps at the end of Sunday’s game. Minshew beat O’Connell out for the starting job in training camp, but it may already be time for AOC to get a look as the starter.

Both teams have the potential to win this game, but Cleveland’s defense has the upper hand, especially if they can control time of possession with their ground game. Las Vegas will need their secondary to step up to contain Watson and keep the game within reach.

Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders Predictions

Spread: Browns -1.5 (-110)

• Cleveland’s defense should give them enough of an edge to cover this narrow spread, especially if they can run the ball effectively with Chubb.

Moneyline: Browns -112, Raiders -104

• The Browns are the slight favorites, and their superior defense makes them the better bet in a close game.

Total: 38.5

• With both teams capable of scoring, the total could go over, especially if Watson and Garoppolo get into a shootout.

Betting Trends:

• Browns are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games against the Raiders.
• Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The total has gone over in 5 of the last 7 matchups between these teams.

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds

The Buffalo Bills face the Baltimore Ravens in what promises to be one of the marquee matchups of Week 4. Buffalo looks like the NFL’s best team so far despite a questionable offseason that saw Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis skip town. Josh Allen back to his usual form, making big plays both with his arm and his legs. He looks like the MVP frontrunner early on. James Cook has stepped into a bigger role this season, while Allen has otherwise spread the wealth in the passing game among Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid.

Buffalo’s ability to pressure Lamar Jackson will be key in this game, as Jackson has struggled historically when facing heavy pass rushes.

The Ravens are just 1-2, but they picked up a huge win on Sunday in Dallas. The story of the game for Baltimore was Derrick Henry, who exploded for 151 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns after totaling just 130 yards on the ground through Weeks 1 and 2 combined. Perhaps rumors of the veteran’s demise were premature.

That said, it’s tough to tell what the Ravens are doing with another veteran, Mark Andrews. Andrews ran just 4 routes and played a fraction of Baltimore’s offensive snaps on Sunday. He’s either not fully healthy, or the Ravens are simply choosing to exclude him from their offensive game plan. Andrews has been a productive pass-catching tight end for quite some time, so it’s curious to see such a sharp downturn in production early in the year.

Defensively, Baltimore will have to contend with the Bills’ explosive offense. The Ravens’ secondary has been solid but will be tested by Allen’s ability to keep defenses guessing. If Baltimore’s pass rush can get to Allen, it could shift the momentum in their favor, but this game is likely to be a back-and-forth affair.

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens Predictions

Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-110)

• Baltimore’s ability to control the clock and play sound defense gives them the edge to cover the spread at home.

Moneyline: Ravens -136, Bills +116

• While the Bills are a tempting underdog, the Ravens’ balanced attack makes them the safer play, especially at home.

Total: 46.5

• Both offenses are capable of putting up points in bunches, so the over looks like a good option here.

Betting Trends:

• Bills are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.
• Ravens are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 matchups between the Bills and Ravens.

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Odds

The Miami Dolphins will host the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football in a showdown between struggling teams. The Titans fell to 0-3 despite playing yet another winnable game against the Packers on Sunday. Another ill-timed Will Levis turnover was ultimately their undoing, but this team has shown signs early in the year.

Tennessee could easily be 3-0 without Levis’ series of poor decisions. Growing pains are to be expected from the second-year QB, but it’s been a frustrating start. Levis has thrown 5 interceptions to 4 touchdown passes through 3 games, though he’s also completed better than 68 percent of his passes.

The Dolphins have issues. Tua Tagovailoa will miss another game with a concussion, while backup Skylar Thompson exited Sunday’s loss to Seattle with a chest injury. If Thompson can’t give it a go this week, the Dolphins may be forced to start either Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley in this one. Boyle came on in relief of Thompson on Sunday, while Huntley was recently signed away from the Ravens’ practice squad.

Miami may struggle to move the ball regardless of who’s under center in this one. The Dolphins put all of 3 points on the board Sunday in Seattle and racked up just 205 total yards of offense. The passing game was non-existent, while De’Von Achane wasn’t able to get anything going on the ground. Achane finished with just 11 carries for 30 yards, while Tyreek Hill caught 3 passes for 40 yards in a very quiet effort.

Unless we get a rare tie, someone has to win this game. While the Dolphins have been tentatively installed as 1-point favorites at home, I think the value lies on the Tennessee side of this one. Even if Levis has been prone to turnovers, at least the Titans have shown some fight offensively. This is also a potentially underrated defense that shouldn’t have much trouble against a Miami team missing a QB.

This may wind up looking foolish, but I love the value in Tennessee’s moneyline odds.

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Predictions

Spread: Dolphins -1 (-110)

• The Dolphins are presumably favored because they’re at home, but this team looked completely punchless in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks.

Moneyline: Dolphins -130, Titans +110

• The Dolphins are the safer pick, but if Tennessee can control the clock with their running game, they could pull off the upset.

Total: 37.5

• This could be a low-scoring game, as both teams will try to impose their style, making the under a solid option.

Betting Trends:

• Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as road underdogs.
• Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The total has gone under in 5 of the Dolphins’ last 7 games.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions Odds

The Detroit Lions host the Seattle Seahawks in a game that could see plenty of offensive fireworks. Detroit, behind the strong play of quarterback Jared Goff, ran their record to 2-1 after Sunday’s win over the Cardinals in Glendale. Goff has built a strong connection with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, while David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combine to form the NFL’s most lethal rushing tandem. The Lions’ offense will test a Seahawks defense that looks improved early in the year under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald.

Slowing down the Lions’ run game will be a key for the Seahawks in this one. Both running backs found the end zone for Detroit on Sunday as Detroit’s run-heavy approach continued. The Lions ran the ball 43 times for 187 yards while Goff threw a couple of touchdown passes. We’re still waiting for Sam LaPorta to get it going after a breakout rookie season, however. Detroit’s star tight end was quiet again on Sunday, finishing with just 2 catches for 36 yards. He also sprained his ankle.

The Seahawks are 3-0 for the first time in franchise history after a stress-free 24-3 win over the hapless Dolphins on Sunday. Seattle is expected to be without running back Kenneth Walker III again in this one with a rib injury, but they haven’t skipped a beat without him. Backup Zach Charbonnet found the end zone twice on Sunday and put up another impressive overall effort as the default RB1.

Defensively, Seattle has been inconsistent, particularly in the secondary, which will be tested by Detroit’s passing attack. If the Seahawks’ pass rush, led by Uchenna Nwosu, can’t get to Goff, it could be a long night for Seattle’s defense. On the other hand, Detroit’s defense, while improved, has shown vulnerability to big plays, so Seattle will likely try to stretch the field with their speedy receivers.

I like the value on Detroit to take care of business at home.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions Predictions

Spread: Lions -4.5 (-110)

• Detroit’s offense has been clicking, and with home-field advantage, they should be able to cover the spread.

Moneyline: Lions -225, Seahawks +188

• The Lions are the safer pick at home, but Seattle’s explosive playmakers make them a dangerous underdog.

Total: 48.5

• With both offenses capable of putting up points, the over seems like a solid play in this matchup.

Betting Trends:

• Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 Seahawks-Lions matchups.

Best Bets for NFL Week 4

Based on the early NFL Week 4 betting lines, there’s plenty of value to be found if you know where to look. Several teams have failed to live up to expectations, and oddsmakers may not know quite how to react. The following are my 3 favorite bets heading into the fourth weekend of the 2024 campaign:

• Tennessee Titans ML (-110)
• Buffalo Bills ML (+116)
• Houston Texans -4.5 (-110)

There’s value on betting on each of these individually, but there’s even more money to be made if you combine them into a parlay. Risking $100 and hitting on this parlay would result in a profit of $687.25.