2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Odds and Predictions

With the 2024 Tour de France officially behind us, the sport of cycling is turning its attention towards the Paris Olympics and the handful of cycling events that will take place over the next few weeks. Most notably, the men’s cycling road race, which is scheduled for August 3, promises to be an exciting battle of the world’s top stars. The women’s road race goes down the next day on August 4.

The Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race is 273 kilometers long and will surpass 2,800 vertical meters in climbing. This route has been described as a blend of numerous disciplines from climbing mountains to navigating the cobble sections. 

Unfortunately, the defending Tokyo Olympics gold medalist Richard Carapaz is absent from this race. He was not selected by his country of Ecuador for the Paris Games. However, both the silver medalist, Wout van Aert, and the bronze medalist, Tadej Pogacar, are here to improve on their previous Olympic results.

If you are looking to bet on the Olympics, keep reading below as we dive into the latest Paris Games Men’s Cycling odds and make our Summer Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race predictions. 

Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Odds

Check out the available Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race odds, courtesy of the best sports betting sites: 

Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Route

The men’s road race will begin and end in Trocadero. Along the way, the route will take the cyclists and viewers by numerous Parisian landmarks including the Eiffel Tower, the Louvre, and the Chateau de Versailles. 

The first few kilometers will be a procession of sorts as the field cruises along the Seine, Les Invalides and Eiffel Tower. The peloton will then head out towards the Chevreuse Valley and begin racing over the start of 13 climbs on the day. These climbs average 1-2 km long and about 6% gradient. 

For those avid cycling fans, you might see a resemblance with this route and some of the Classics. By time we get to the halfway mark, the riders will have already conquered a few climbs and some cobbled sections. 

Most pundits feel that the last 100km will be the toughest portion of this race. Six climbs within 40km will definitely punish the field and most likely split the peloton. Eventually, the riders make their way back to Paris where they will complete a circuit of 18.4 km in the Montmartre region. 

This circuit will feature three laps over the cobbled butte Montmartre climb, towards the Sacre Coeur Basilica and then back down towards Paris. There will be a flat run into Paris, which could lead to a sprint if there is a pack of riders near each other.  The race will finish on the Pont d’lena with the Eiffel Tower in the background. 

Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Gold Medal Odds

Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Favorites

The following cyclists are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Paris Olympics Gold Medal in the Men’s Cycling Road Race:

Mathieu Van Der Poel (NED) +250

If you recall, Mathieu Van Der Poel suffered a nasty crash in the Tokyo Olympics mountain bike race, which led to him not being a factor in the road race that year. This year, Van der Poel decided to skip the Paris Olympics mountain bike race, so he can focus on the road race only. 

In the Tour de France, Van der Poel spent the majority of time as the lead-out for Jasper Philipsen. Otherwise, MVDP wasn’t really a factor in any stage. However, he recently stated that his form improved during the Tour and that he feels great heading into the Olympics, which is trouble for the rest of the field.  

On the season, Van der Poel has performed well in individual races. He won E3 Saxo Classic, Tour de Flanders, and Paris-Roubaix. The two latter are pillars among the Classics. MVDP also finished 10^th in Milano-Sanremo and 3^rd at Liege-Bastogne-Liege. 

It’s clear, Van der Poel is in peak form and a serious contender to win gold at Paris. 

Tadej Pogacar (SVN) +400

Speaking of Paris, it was odd not seeing the Tour de France finish in Paris this year. As beautiful as Nice was, it’s just not the same. So, when Tadej Pogacar won his third Tour de France in five years, it was weird seeing him celebrate in Nice instead of Paris. 

If you missed the Tour de France this year, then you missed one of the greatest Tours in recent memory. It was such a hard, historic Grand Tour that I can’t sum it up in a few words. 

In regards to Pogacar, his dominance was on full display from Day 1 as the 3-time TDF champions won six stages this year. Mark Cavendish better watch out. Sir Cavendish just set the all-time record with 35 Tour de France stage wins. However, Pogacar has 17 stage wins already, and is just 25 years old. 

With that said, Pogacar has dominated every race that he’s entered in 2024. He won Strade Bianche in March, was third at Milano-San Remo, won the Volta a Catalunya in late March, won Liege-Bastogne-Liege in April, the Giro d’Italia in May and then the Tour de France in July. 

If Pogacar can win the Olympic gold medal and the World Championships as well, then this will go down as the greatest year in pro cycling. As it stands, only two other cyclists have ever won the Giro, Tour and Worlds in the same year: Eddy Merckx and Stephen Roche. 

Mads Pedersen (DEN) +600

Mads Pedersen was expected to be a major player in the Tour de France this year. Not only were there stages perfectly suited for his skills, but he was also going to be a factor in the Points Classification as well. Unfortunately, Pedersen sustained a serious crash on Stage 5 and would eventually abandon the tour before the start of Stage 8. 

Although Pedersen didn’t sustain any broken bones or fractures, his injuries worsened over the following days, where he had very limited range of motion in his left shoulder. 

It’s entirely possible that Pedersen has fully recovered by time the Olympic Road Race takes place. However, for me, the crash and other betting options make Pedersen a “hard pass” for Olympic wagers. 

Wout Van Aert (BEL) +600

One of my favorite cyclists in the field, Wout van Aert also used the Tour de France to get in better shape after a spring crash in Dwars door Vlaanderen. The talented rider fared well before the crash but was clearly still lacking the legs to be a factor in the mountain stages on the third week of the Tour. 

With that said, WVA is looking forward to the Olympics and not being one of the outright favorites like he was in Tokyo. However, that doesn’t mean people are overlooking him. It just means that the men above him in the betting odds, might be in better form or better suited for the course. 

Yet, whenever we see a course that’s suited for Van der Poel, we can rest assured that it will also be suited for van Aert. The long-time rivals could see their on-bike feud reach new levels at the Olympics this year, especially if they sprint to the finish. 

I think WVA has a better shot at this road race than the Olympics Time Trial. However, his ITT performance on July 27, could be an indicator to the form that van Aert is in for the road race a week later. 

Remco Evenepoel (BEL) +1100

Outside of Cavendish and Girmay, the one rider that I was the most impressed with at the Tour de France was Remco Evenepoel. Going into the Tour, I was certain that Remco would have his typical “one bad day” and that would drop him down in the standings and out of podium contention.

Kudos to the Belgian for showing an evolution in his Grand Tour racing and persevering to finish third in this year’s TDF. Although he couldn’t match the level of Pogacar and Vingegaard, Evenepoel was the best of the rest. 

With that said, Evenepoel offers great value for this race. He has the time trial skills, speed, legs and overall ability to perform well in any Road Race. I like his value of +1100 odds. I do think his chances for gold are better in the ITT, but Evenepoel will have a strong Belgian team beside him. 

In addition to Wout van Aert and Remco, Team Belgium also has Tiesj Benoot and Jasper Stuyven. I think we definitely get at least one Belgian on the podium. But, which one?

Best Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Betting Value

Biniam Girmay (ERI) is my favorite value bet at +2200 odds. The man from Eritrea, just made history in the Tour de France by winning three stages and the Green Jersey competition. He upstaged the sport’s top sprinters including the defending green jersey champ Jasper Philipsen. 

I absolutely loved seeing Girmay win the green jersey at the Tour de France and the celebrations in his home country after each stage win. It’s a great story for cycling and he’s certainly capable of winning the Points Classification again next year.

As for the Olympics, this route also suits Girmay. He has the legs, the speed and the ability to sprint with Van der Poel and van Aert. If he can stay near the front of the pack, and out of trouble, Girmay could contend for a podium finish. 

Top Longshot to Win Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race

Matteo Jorgenson (USA), and his +4000 odds, is my choice for the top longshot to win the Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race. And, no, it’s not just because he’s an American. Although, he is America’s best hope of winning a Tour de France in the near future. 

With that said, Jorgenson finished 8^th in the 2024 TDF, including fourth on the final stage which was a time trial. He was beat out by the three podium finishers on that stage. Yet, Jorgenson spent most of the Tour riding for his captain, two-time champ, Jonas Vingegaard. And, he didn’t just do that in the mountains, he did it on the flat roads as well. 

When not riding for Jonas, Matteo has been strong this season. He won Paris-Nice, was 5^th in E3 Saxo Classic, won Dwars door Vlaanderen, and was second at the Criterium du Dauphine. 

Jorgenson can ride a strong time trial, climb in the mountains and produce a lot of power on lengthy races like the Olympics route. He’s definitely worthy of a flier. 

Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Prediction: Who Wins Gold?

Van der Poel, van Aert, and Pogacar are the three hot names coming into the Men’s Cycling Olympic Road Race. The first two are trendy picks because they are two of the best one-day, classics riders in the sport today. When in peak condition, these two men are hard to beat. In fact, it’s often one beating the other for the victory. 

With that said, there is no possible way that you can watch what Pogacar has done this year and not pick him to win the gold medal. 

In 2021, at the Tokyo Olympics, Pogacar was really just bursting on the scene with his second Tour de France victory and becoming one of the top cyclists in the sport. Today, he is the best cyclist in the sport and already one of the Top 10 greatest cyclists of all-time. Yes, you read that correctly! 

I’m a Visma supporter, but Pogacar’s dominance and aggressiveness has won me over. When he puts a number on his back, I know he’s going to try to win the race. I love this about him. I’m betting on Pogacar to win the gold, but I will be rooting for Jorgenson and Girmay to contend for the win as well. 

Side note, Pogacar will become just the second cyclist ever to have two or more medals in the Men’s Olympic Cycling Road Race. 

Bet: Tadej Pogacar (+400)

Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race To Win A Medal Odds

It should be noted that these odds are based on winning any of the three available medals.

Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Medal Favorites

The following cyclists are considered the odds-on favorites to win a Paris Olympics medal in the Men’s Cycling Road Race:

Mathieu Van Der Poel (NED) -135

If there’s anyone who can challenge Pogacar for the win, it’s Van der Poel. He’s shown excellent speed this year, especially in the spring Classics and leading out Philipsen in the Tour de France to three stage wins and a bunch of seconds. With numerous wins on the year, good form, and healthy, I believe MVDP can finish on the podium. 

Tadej Pogacar (SVN) +100

As seen above, I picked Pogacar to win the gold medal, so I believe he’s a no-brainer for finishing on the podium. Keep in mind, he won the bronze in the Tokyo Olympics road race after just being nipped at the line by van Aert. He’s in better form this year and I think he’s going to ride away from the field. 

Mads Pedersen (DEN) +150

As mentioned above, I am out on Pedersen. Love watching him race and compete, but that was a nasty crash a few weeks ago in the Tour de France. I’m not sure he can hang with the top riders when not 100% healthy.

Wout Van Aert (BEL) +150

In the Tokyo Games, van Aert took home the silver medal. He’s certainly capable of duplicating that feat this year. As a fan of WVA and Visma, I will be rooting for him to race well. However, his form was off in the Tour due to a prior accident. He was close several times to winning a stage, but wasn’t able to complete the task. But, he also looked subpar in the mountains which concerns me for the Olympics. 

The third place finisher in the Tour de France has a great chance at finishing on the podium in the Olympics and contending for the gold. He’s shown a marked improvement in hist Grand Tour riding and looks like won of the best overall riders in the peloton. But will that translate into an Olympic medal?

Christophe Laporte (FRA) +450

Christophe Laporte would love to deliver his home country an Olympic gold medal. And out of everyone on Team France, he’s the best pick to do so. Laporte has speed, can hang in the bunch sprints, is a solid climber and strong overall contender for this race. 

Matteo Jorgenson (USA) +1000

As seen above, Matteo Jorgenson (USA) +1000, is my longshot choice to win gold. So, I’m sticking with the American as my longshot choice to finish on the podium. Sure, there are riders with longer odds, but I just don’t see any of them being real contenders for a medal. Jorgenson has won races this year and is a legitimate overall threat for gold if he’s in good form. 

Paris Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Prediction: Who Medals?

Clearly, I have Pogacar as the gold medalist. I think he can duplicate what Carapaz did in Tokyo when he rode away from the bunch. However, that was due to the bunch underestimating the Ecuadorian. This year, Pogacar will break away because he’s the most dominant rider in cycling. 

So, who finishes on the podium with Pogacar? 

I would love to see Girmay and Jorgenson on the podium. More than likely, it’s going to be Van der Poel and someone like Remco or Tom Pidcock. Basically, the bronze medal could be won by a non-favorite, but someone very skilled at one-day races like Pidcock who is an Olympic gold medalist. 

With that in mind, I’m taking Pogacar to win gold, Van der Poel to get the silver, and Girmay to get the bronze. Yeah, call me crazy, but the Eritrean has a force to be reckoned with on long, hilly stages with sprint finishes. 

Bet: Mathieu Van Der Poel (-135), Tadej Pogacar (+100), Biniam Girmay (+700)

Recent Olympics Men’s Cycling Road Race Medalists

Most Olympic Men’s Cycling Road Race Medals By Country