2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Water Polo Odds and Predictions

Water polo has been one of the mainstays in the Summer Olympics, with the first competition dating all the way back to 1900. It’s undergone some changes since then, but it’s still an exciting event that produces a surprising amount of interest, especially when it comes to betting on the Olympics.

That excitement will continue to be the case in the 2024 Paris Olympics, where Hungary looks to add to its nine gold medals. They appear to be in position to, as they start the competition as co-favorites with Spain.

Of course, when you look at the 2024 Paris Olympics men’s water polo odds, you’ll notice they’re fairly spread out. Does that mean we don’t have a favorite worth backing?

Let’s find out as I look at the latest pricing and analyze the top contenders en route to a prediction.

Odds to Win Gold in Men’s Water Polo in Paris

Hungary has had a lot of success at the Olympics, but they’re a ways removed from the dominant stretch they enjoyed between 2000 and 2008.

They did win bronze at the Tokyo Games, though, and they’ll enter Paris as co-favorites with Spain at +200.

See how the other 10 countries measure up to these two with the latest men’s water polo betting odds, per BetOnline.

BetOnline is just one of many sports betting sites allowing you to bet on the 2024 Paris Olympics, so be sure to shop for the best prices before finalizing your bets.

Spain is the aforementioned “other” favorite, although they don’t look quite as welcoming, seeing as how they haven’t even placed since winning gold in 1996.

That said, they did get to the bronze medal game four years ago, and they’ve been heating up since then. Of course, more than anything, the latest Paris Olympics men’s water polo odds really tell us that this competition could be wide open.

Not sure which way to go? Let’s first see why these two countries are atop of the pile, and then look at some other viable contenders worth betting on this summer.

Why Are Hungary and Spain Co-Favorites for 2024?

When looking at the field, it’s tough to deny the longstanding hold Hungary has had on the competition. They have dominated with 24 total medals and nine gold medals during their time in the Olympics, and it wasn’t even that long ago that they were looking unbeatable.

Their most recent run of dominance stretched from 2000 in Sydney to 2008 in Beijing, as Hungary won gold in three straight Olympics.

They took a step back and failed to place in the next two Summer Games, but returned to relevancy with a bronze medal in Tokyo. They continued their ascension with gold at the 2023 World Championships, finished second at the 2022 European Championships, and were fourth at the 2023 World Cup.

Their most impressive performance since Tokyo, though, came in the 2023 World Aquatic Championships, where their first place finish qualified them for a spot in the Paris Games.

Spain, meanwhile, got here on the heels of a 2024 European Championship win.

They still competed in the 2024 World Aquatic Championships, where they were quite good. Spain went 3-0 in Group Play, and made it all the way to the Quarter-finals before dropping a tense 12-11 defeat to eventual champion, Hungary.

They don’t have near the success of Hungary in the Olympics, but they did win gold in 1996, and managed to finish fourth in Tokyo.

By all accounts, these are the two best teams in this competition, and they’re both in solid form. Getting both at nice +200 prices is swell, but picking which one will actually win gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics is easier said than done.

Top Men’s Water Polo Contenders for the 2024 Paris Games

You can certainly stop your research at the co-favorites this year, and it’s possible you’d be finalizing a winning wager. However, given the odds to win the mens’ water polo competition, I think there’s room for an upset.

Here are three other viable gold medal threats I’d consider betting on for this Olympics market.

Italy +300

The team owning the third best odds to win gold in men’s water polo is Italy. The Italians dominated Group B in Tokyo with a 3-0 record and 55 goals – second most in Group Play) – and then fell in the Quarter-finals in a brutal shootout.

Despite the disappointment, Italy flexed their muscle by trucking on and scoring a seventh place finish. Since then, they have two second place finishes at the World Championships, with one coming this year.

Italy also won the silver medal in the 2023 FINA World Cup, took home gold in the FINA World League, and nabbed the bronze medal in the 2024 European Championship.

This is a battle tested team with a more than capable offense. After getting tripped up in Tokyo, don’t be shocked if they go considerably further in Paris.

Croatia +600

Doubling Italy’s odds would be Croatia, who went 2-0-1 in Group Play in Tokyo, and were fairly prolific offensively (51 goals scored), but had to head to the Playoffs. There, they fell in a tight 13-12 game against Montenegro.

Croatia could have easily gone on a run if they’d made it out of the Playoffs four years ago, especially judging by their talent and pedigree. This is a team that literally won gold in 2012 and almost did once again in 2016 (silver).

They also qualified for Paris with a first place finish at the 2024 World Championships, while they also finished inside the top two at both the 2022 and 2024 European Championship.

Greece +700

One more men’s water polo contender to consider is Greece, who have appealing +700 odds for this market. They might still be riding high from their epic Tokyo run, which landed them a silver medal.

Greece was awfully close to winning it all, as their game with Hungary ended in a 10-10 tie and went to a penalty shootout, which they lost, 4-3.

Before that fateful defeat, Greece edged out Montenegro by one and dominated Serbia. They’d also whipped their Group A competition, going 3-0 with 46 goals scored.

Since their successful trip to Tokyo, Greece has been busy, securing two second place finishes at the 2022 and 2023 World Championship. There are no guarantees now that they’re back in the mix for gold, but after coming so close, they’re a fun contender to back at this cool +700 price tag.

Best Men’s Water Polo Value Bet for 2024

There are several viable men’s water polo sleepers heading into the 2024 Paris Games. Japan and Romania have extremely fun prices at +50000 apiece, while France is seemingly a threat in every competition (+6600).

I’d surely rather take a stab at France in the 2024 Paris Olympics men’s handball competition, though, which has my sights elsewhere in terms of betting value.

Call me a homer all you want, but I actually really like Team USA for as a fun men’s water polo value bet in 2024. Their +4000 odds are plenty inviting, and the US is expected to win a ton of medals at the Olympics this year, so why stop now?

In all seriousness, the US men’s water polo squad is a bit better than anyone cares to admit. They were actually a dangerous crew in Tokyo, where they were a decent 2-0-1 in Group A, while putting up 48 goals.

That goal count was the best in their Group, and yet they were forced to make a run from the Playoffs. They ousted Canada in a memorable 13-10 showdown, and very nearly took down the eventual champion Hungary in an insane 13-12 nail-biter.

Obviously Team USA can’t pick up exactly where they left off four years ago, but they have to be kicking themselves after letting Hungary off the hook.

To their credit, the US moved on to give France a heck of a battle (13-13 tie that they lost in a penalty shootout), and then they edged out Montenegro in another penalty shootout.

The United States has since continued to prove their worth with a bronze medal at the 2023 Water Polo World Cup.

They’d later tack on a gold medal at the 2023 Pan American Games.

The USA is no stranger to making runs in men’s water polo, either. They’re not quite as imposing as the USA women’s team that is favored to win in Paris, but they’re still a threat.

USA’s lone gold medal was forever ago (1904!), but they have obtained three silver medals since 1984 in this event. One came as recently as 2008, and the team they have now has the experience to give it a serious go in Paris.

Predicting the 2024 Paris Olympics Men’s Water Polo Winner

Now comes the time for my men’s water polo prediction. The reality is this is a wide open race. The latest betting odds tell us as much, and anytime an event has co-favorites, you know you’re playing with fire.

Rolling with Hungary or Spain is totally fine. I’d favor Hungary between the two due to their experience and past dominance, but in what can be a fairly erratic sport – one that is often decided by penalty shots – I think we can roll the dice a bit.

That has made me very interested in Greece.

Greece has the fifth best men’s water polo odds (+700), which keeps them among the contenders, but also ensures a nice price for sports bettors seeking value.

This is also a team that almost won gold at the last Olympics. Could Greece come to Paris with their sights on finishing the job? Surely that will be their hope, and at their +700 price, I don’t mind backing them to get it done.

Bet: Greece +700