2025 Paris Nice Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, March 9, the 2025 Paris-Nice gets underway live from Le Perray-en-Yvelines, France. Often referred to as The Race to the Sun, the 83^rd edition of Paris-Nice promises to be a thrilling eight-day event with some of cycling’s biggest names competing for victory. 

While Tadej Pogacar is competing in Strade Biance this weekend, the sport’s other top GC rider Jonas Vingegaard will take the starting line on Sunday. 

His Visma Lease a Bike teammate, and defending 2024 Paris-Nice winner Matteo Jorgenson, will also return for this race. It will be interesting to see who this team works for over these eight days. 

Despite Pogacar’s absence, UAE Team Emirates will send a strong squad to Paris-Nice with the hopes of taking down their rival Visma Lease a Bike. The leader of the team appears to be Joao Almeida, but they also have Pavel Sivakov, Brandon McNulty, Nils Politt and Jhontan Narvaez. This is the elite quality of riders that often accompany Pogacar in stage races. 

With that said, there will be other riders factoring into the outcome of this race like Alexander Vlasov, Felix Gall, Sanitago Buitrago and Ben O’Connor. 

Let’s take a look at the latest cycling odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Paris Nice predictions.

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How To Watch Paris-Nice?

For North American fans, Peacock will stream all eight stages of the 2025 Paris-Nice. The following is a breakdown of start times for this exciting stage race:

• Stage 1 – Sunday, March 9 at 8:35am ET
• Stage 2 – Monday, March 10 at 9:45am ET
• Stage 3 – Tuesday, March 11 at 9:45am ET
• Stage 4 – Wednesday, March 12 at 9:45am ET
• Stage 5 – Thursday, March 13 at 9:45am ET
• Stage 6 – Friday, March 14 at 9:45am ET
• Stage 7 – Saturday, March 15 at 8:25am ET
• Stage 8 – Sunday, March 16 at 10:25am ET

Paris-Nice Route

The 83^rd edition of Paris-Nice is an eight-day long race that spans over 1,200km across the Paris-Nice region of France. 13 cities will host stages that include one team time trial, three sprint stages, three hilly stages, and one mountain stage.

Stage 1 (Sunday, March 9): Flat Stage

The opening Stage is a flat one that spans 156.1km from Le Perray-en-Yvelines to Le Perray-en-Yvelines. This will be a day for the sprinters as three Cat 3 climbs won’t slow down this peloton. A sprint finish will cue up the fast men of the field.

Stage 2 (Monday, March 10): Flat Stage

Another flat stage, but longer than the opening day. It spans 183.9km from Montesson to Bellegarde. Two Cat 3 climbs will not affect this stage as we see another sprint finish at the end of a relatively flat Stage 2.

Stage 3 (Tuesday, March 11): Team Time-Trial

The third day of the race features a Team Time-Trial that spans 28.4km from Circuit Nevers Magny Cours to Never. This will be a day where the best teams separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

Stage 4 (Wednesday, March 12): Hilly Stage

The first hilly stage of the race spans 163.4km from Vichy to La Loge des Gardes. On Stage 4, we’ll see our first Cat 1 climb as the riders will finish up the hill of La Loge Des Gardes. Prior to this climb, they will have to cross four Cat 3 and one Cat 2 climbs. This could be a day for the breakaway to succeed.

Stage 5 (Thursday, March 13): Hilly Stage

A second straight hilly day will see the peloton race across 203.3km from Saint-Just-en-Chevalet to La Côte-Saint-Andre. The field will race across five Cat 3 climbs and a Sprint point before finishing on a Cat 2 climb. Stage 5 could be a day where the GC contenders lead a small peloton to catch the breakaway and contend for the stage win.   

Stage 6 (Friday, March 14): Flat Stage   

The longest stage of the race, Stage 6 spans 209.8km from Saint-Julien-en-Saint-Alban to Berre l’Etang. It will be a day where the sprinters compete and it could be a slow day as the peloton transitions from hills to the big mountain stage on Saturday. There will be a sprint point 20km from the finish line. So, expect the fireworks to begin around that point of the stage.

Stage 7 (Saturday, March 15): Mountain Stage 

Stage 7 is the Queen Stage of the race as the field will race across 147.8km from Nice to Auron. The day will feature two Cat 2 climbs and two Cat 1 climbs. The peloton will finish on a Cat 1 at Auron. It’s the toughest climb of the day at 7.3km long and 7.2% gradient.

Stage 8 (Sunday, March 16): Hilly Stage

Race organizers didn’t do the peloton any favors this year as the final stage of the race will be a tough one. Riders will race across 119.9km of Nice. They will face three Cat 1 climbs before descending to the finish line. If the GC battle has been decided already, then a breakaway will win the day. Otherwise, this will be a GC war to the finish line.          

Paris-Nice Odds

Check out the latest Paris-Nice odds:

There are a number of riders in this race that could be considered longshots like Julian Alaphilippe, Romain Bardet, Lucas Plapp and more. However. With the level of top-tier talent lining up in Paris-Nice this weekend, it’s clear that the winner is coming from one of the pre-race favorites. 

Currently, Visma Leas a Bike’s tandem of Jonas Vingegaard lead the peloton as the odds-on favorites. However, Joao Almeida and Alexander Vlasov aren’t too far behind. There’s plenty of value outside of the top three or four riders. But you must balance that value with realistic chances of winning. This is the approach that some of the best handicappers will take as well.

Paris-Nice Favorites

Let’s take a look at the pre-race favorites for the 83^rd Paris-Nice event:

Jonas Vingegaard (-188)

Jonas Vingegaard enters Paris-Nice as the clear-cut betting favorite. And, honestly, it’s hard to argue against this considering the only cyclist who can hang with Jonas V. when he’s on top form is Pogacar.

Vingegaard got the 2025 season off to a strong start by winning the Volta ao Algarve last month. He beat out others like Joao Almeida, Primoz Roglic and Tao Hart Geoghegan. Now, he didn’t dominate in the mountains like we are accustomed to seeing, but this was a race to get the legs going and improve his form.

I expect Jonas to enter this race with better form and a course that suits him well. Vingegaard is an excellent time trialist, so the TTT will be huge for Visma as they should put a lot of time on their competitors.

For Jonas, this will be his second Paris-Nice appearance. He finished third in 2023. Vingegaard wasn’t in the best of form for that race, but nobody was going to beat Pogacar that year.

For the 2025 Paris-Nice race, I expect Vingegaard to look strong in the mountains and put away the competition in the final two days of the race.

Matteo Jorgenson (+450)

If Vingegaard stumbles at all during this race then you can expect the defending Paris-Nice winner to take over the reigns as the Visma leader and overall race favorite. In fact, the American cyclist is feeling good about the upcoming race as he expressed his excitement for Paris-Nice:

“Paris-Nice is always one of the highlights of the season. This race is definitely one of my favorite ones on the calendar. It will be special to start with number one on my back. We have a strong lineup. Moreover, I’m really looking forward to racing with Jonas again. We get along well and have already proven to be a great duo in races. We definitely have a shot at another overall victory in Nice.”

Jorgenson has two races under his belt this season. But they were both one-day races and he was riding in support of his teammates.

This will be Jorgenson’s fifth appearance in Paris-Nice. In addition to winning last year, he was 8^th in 2021 and 2023, while scoring a DNF in 2022.

Joao Almeida (+650)

Joao Almeida is set to be one of the leaders for UAE Team Emirates in the Paris-Nice race this year. And, I wouldn’t count him out when it comes to winning this race as Almeida showed that he’s already in good form for the 2025 season.

This is something that the Portuguese rider discussed ahead of Paris-Nice:

“It’s been a good start to the season for me and the team. We have found the way to victory and we are fighting in every race. Here in Paris-Nice, we’re going to give our best as a team. I want to be up there with the best and fight for a good result. The form is good after the Volta ao Algarve. I’ve been recovering and training to stay fit. Now I have a good feeling and we’re going to go for it as a team.”

This UAE Team is stacked. In fact, it’s rather impressive how deep they are and their commitment to trying to win Paris-Nice.

In regards to Almeida, in his two stage races this year, the 26-year-old finished second in both of them. Most recently, he finished second to Vingegaard at the Volta ao Algarve. However, Almeida did leave Vingegaard on some of the tougher climbs, so that bodes well for this year’s Paris-Nice.

Almeida is certainly capable of winning this race, but he’s also capable of fading after attempts to blow up the peloton in the mountains. This was the case last year when he finished 11^th. That was a drop from his Paris-Nice debut in 2022, where he finished 8^th.

I expect better tactics from UAE and Almeida due to their deep squad and the team time trial playing a pivotal role in this race.

Alexander Vlasov (+1200)

Borah’s Alexander Vlasov should be one of the leaders for this team, if not the defacto captain. Last year, Vlasov finished 5^th overall after winning the Queen Stage. His form came on late in the race and it was too late for the Russian cyclist to make ground on the leaders.

Vlasov’s best Paris-Nice result came in 2021, when he finished 2^nd overall. His only other appearance came in 2022, where he scored a DNF.

At nearly 29 years of age, Vlasov doesn’t have much to show for the 2025 season to date. In fact, he raced just one time and finished 17^th at the Volta a la Communitat Valenciana last month. It was a lackluster performance where he was mostly using the race for training.

With that said, we’ll need to see Vlasov show something special for this year’s Paris-Nice or he will once again fall behind the top GC contenders.

The Best Paris-Nice Betting Value

The following cyclists offer betting value based on their current Paris-Nice odds, early season performances, and past success in this race; 

Brandon McNulty (+1800)

Jorgenson isn’t the only American with a shot at winning the race. In fact, he isn’t the only American that is a co-captain of his respective team. That’s exactly the scenario that Brandon McNulty finds himself in.

In fact, that’s what happened with McNulty last year as well. Yet, he was able to finish third overall, which was an improvement over his 12^th place result from 2022. McNulty’s Paris-Nice debut came in 2021, where he scored a DNF.

Up to this point, McNulty has had a decent season so far. He finished 5^th at the Volta a la Communitat Valenciana. A few smaller one-day races saw McNulty compete but come up well short of any success.

I fully expect McNulty to pick up the slack if Almedia falters at all. However, he will also have teammates Narvaez and Sivakov who can do the same.

Don’t be surprised of UAE uses their riders to put pressure on Visma and try to tire them out by time the race gets to Nice.

Felix Gall (+2000)

The Austrian cyclist finished 9^th last year, in his only Paris-Nice appearance. However, it was a nice result for his 2024 season. I expect Gall to improve on this result for the 2025 edition of Paris-Nice.

However, he will be one of the riders that needs to perform really well in the latter stages due to falling behind in the team time trial.

Hist team, Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale, will not be able to compete with Visma and UAE. So, Gall will fall behind by a sizable amount. So, look for Gall to try and attack in the mountains to claw back time. Stranger things have happened.

Let’s not forget how Sepp Kuss won the 2023 Vuelta a Espana after the peloton let him get away on a breakaway and couldn’t catch him in the final stages.

Ben O’Connor (+2000) 

The Australian, Ben O’Connor, had his best year as a pro last season. So, he’s looking to build off that success by putting together a strong 2025 season.

To date, O’Connor has only one race under his legs and it was the Communitat Valenciana where he finished 10^th. Yet, his team did score a 2^nd in the team time trial, so that could play a part in O’Connor’s performance this year.

If Team Jayco AlUla can crack the Top 5 in the TTT, O’Connor could be a contender for the podium. However, that’s a big “if” and it will require the Australian to be in better form than what we saw of him last month.

Also, he will need to improve on his previous lack of success at Paris-Nice. In three appearances, O’Connor has two DNFs and a 12^th which came in 2021.

Santiago Buitrago (+2500)

Other than McNulty, of these value riders, I really like Santiago Buitrago at Paris-Nice. He’s a cyclist who outperformed Almeida, Bilbao, Arensman, McNulty, Rodriguez, O’Connor and Hindley at Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana last month.

Buitrago went on to win the race by 15 seconds over Almeida. It was a huge boost to his confidence and his team Bahrain – Victorious.

The 25-year-old followed that up with a 5^th at Classic Var and a 2^nd at Tour de Alpes-Maritimes a few weeks ago. He came up 10 seconds short of another win this season.

Last year, Buitrago failed to finish the race on the final stage. However, he was a contender up to that point with a Stage 4 win and two other Top 10 finishes.

At +2500 odds, Buitrago provides excellent value. I expect the Colombian to compete for a podium spot this year.

Top Paris-Nice Longshot

Although Thymen Arensman (+3300) isn’t one of the primary Grant Tour GC riders for INEOS, he’s still a strong cyclist who should get the nod as team captain for Paris Nice.

Arensman finished fourth in the Valenciana last month and 17^th at Algarve a few weeks ago. So, he has enough racing under his legs to be a factor in Paris-Nice this year.

The team time trial could make or break his chances as he could fall into the Gall category of playing catch up in the mountains or he could be close to the leaders all race long.

Paris-Nice Predictions

The following riders should contend for the podium: Vingegaard, Jorgenson, McNulty, Almeida, O’Connor, and Buitrago. I also wouldn’t count out Sivakov, Narvaez, or Gall.

With that said, if Vingegaard is in strong form then he will win this race. He’s the best climber in the peloton at Paris-Nice and the team time trial will give him some buffer in the mountains.

I’m excited to see how the two big Americans do at Paris-Nice as both Jorgenson and McNulty could end up as the leaders of their respective teams depending on how the race unfolds.

Additionally, UAE is so deep for Paris-Nice that we haven’t even talked much about Narvaez. He won the Tour Down Under this year and the Ecuadorian Nationals road race. This will be his third appearance in Paris-Nice and it could be a charm if he’s in better form than his teammates.

Narvaez is my darkhorse, but there are too many factors working against him right now as we head into the race. Namely, UAE has three other riders ahead of him on the pecking order.

I’m, really looking forward to the battle between Visma and UAE. It’s one of the best rivalries in all of sports as these two teams have the best riders in cycling and for each race. Both have loaded up their squads for Paris-Nice and we will see an eight-day war.

Just like with Pogacar, as long as Vingegaard is healthy, then you have to take the Dane to win the race.

Bet: Jonas Vingegaard (-188)

Paris-Nice Results

The following is a list of the previous Paris-Nice winners: