2024 Presidential Election Odds and Predictions

At long last, the 2024 US presidential election is finally here. On Tuesday, millions of Americans will decide whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will replace incumbent Joe Biden in the White House. We will also see voters determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate and House of Representatives in addition to several lower-level local elections.

One way to potentially deal with the stress of election night is by betting on the action. Several online betting sites are offering 2024 election props targeting a variety of potential outcomes.

Below, we’ll break down each of these unique betting options, providing odds, analysis, and context. Whether you’re a political junkie or a novice political bettor, this guide will give you a better understanding of how these odds stack up—and what they might reveal about the race.

2024 Presidential Election Odds

Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

The 2024 US Presidential Election is shaping up to be a tightly contested battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, at least according to the current betting odds. Both candidates have their strengths and challenges. As the political environment evolves, so too will their chances of winning. Even with Trump pulling ahead with oddsmakers, it’s clear that this election could still go either way, making it one of the most unpredictable races in recent memory.

As we the clock ticks down on voting, it will be crucial to keep an eye on any last minute developments especially when it comes to betting on the election. For now, the media is depicting this race as wide open, despite oddsmakers and handicappers pushing a Trump victory as the favored outcome.

I’m not foolish to think that Trump isn’t going to win, but I do like the value with Harris when it comes to wagering on the Presidential Election. I’m siding with the value here by placing a small, yet riskier wager on Harris.

Bet: Kamala Harris (+140)

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Presidential Election Prop Bets

Let’s take a closer look at some of the most popular 2024 Presidential Election prop bets and make more Presidential Election predictions.

Swing States Sweep – Republicans

• Yes: +250
• No: -350

A Republican sweep of the seven critical swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin—would signify a major shift in the political landscape. Historically, these states have been the battlegrounds that both parties fight hardest for, as they can tilt the electoral college decisively in one direction. In 2020, these states were hotly contested, with narrow margins determining the outcome in several of them. The “Yes” odds of +250 indicate that while such a sweep is possible, it’s not highly expected by the oddsmakers, who give the “No” side more favorable odds at -350.

In 2016 – when Trump infamously upset Hillary Clinton to win the presidency – Republicans performed far better than expected in these decisive states. In fact, Trump won them all. That changed entirely in 2020, however, when Trump lost to Joe Biden. The only swing state from 2016 that stayed red in 2020 was North Carolina.

Meanwhile, states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin form what’s called the “Blue Wall.” These states have traditionally leaned Democratic but showed susceptibility to Republican outreach in 2016 when Trump narrowly won each. Since then, Democrats have reclaimed some ground, especially in 2020, by addressing issues that resonate with the working-class population in these states, including job security, healthcare, and infrastructure. For Trump to reclaim these states in a sweep, they would need to convincingly address these issues with a strong populist message that appeals to union members and blue-collar workers.

This is widely expected to be an incredibly close race, so I’m highly skeptical of either party’s chances to completely sweep the crucial swing states.

• Best Bet:

Bet: No -350

Sun Belt Sweep – Republicans

• Yes: +120
• No: -160

The Sun Belt – Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas – has historically been a Republican stronghold. However, in recent years, some of these states have shown signs of shifting toward the Democrats. Arizona and Georgia flipped blue in the 2020 presidential election, indicating that demographic and ideological changes may be underway. The odds here reflect another likely close race, with “No” slightly favored at -160, meaning oddsmakers anticipate that the GOP has a decent chance but will face significant challenges in achieving a complete Sun Belt sweep.

Arizona and Georgia are the two states in this grouping that Democrats have recently managed to win, thanks largely to urban centers like Phoenix and Atlanta, where younger and more diverse populations lean Democratic. Republicans aiming for a sweep here would need to reclaim ground in these cities, likely by appealing to moderate and independent voters who may be concerned about issues like the economy, inflation, and immigration. The party would also need to boost rural turnout, which tends to favor Republicans, to counterbalance Democratic gains in urban and suburban areas.

North Carolina, while traditionally conservative, has also become increasingly competitive, with Democrats focusing on suburban areas that are growing and diversifying. Trump may also struggle in the Tar Heel State this year because of the gubernatorial race. Democrat Josh Stein is running well ahead of GOP challenger Mark Robinson. Split-ticket voters certainly exist, but it’s rare for a state to vote for a governor and president from separate parties in the same election.

Texas remains a conservative stronghold overall, but the state’s major cities, such as Houston, Dallas, and Austin, lean Democratic, and the growth in Hispanic populations has introduced some unpredictability. For Republicans to maintain control of Texas and sweep the entire Sun Belt, they’ll likely need a strong showing among Hispanic and suburban voters, two groups that are currently split and therefore up for grabs in this election. I still think Trump is going to win Texas’ 40 electoral votes for a third straight election, but it could be closer than expected.

Ultimately, the “Yes” odds of +120 reflect the Republican Party’s historical advantage in these states, but the odds-on “No” suggest that oddsmakers are aware of shifting dynamics. I think Trump is likely to win Texas, Arizona, and Georgia, but I’m skeptical of his chances in North Carolina. As a result, I’m leaning “no” here.

Bet: No -160

Blue Wall Sweep – Republicans

• Yes: +200
• No: -300

The aforementioned Blue Wall states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—are among the most crucial battlegrounds in American presidential elections. These states were essential to Donald Trump’s 2016 victory but flipped back to the Democrats in 2020. The odds of +200 for a Republican sweep reflect the challenge of flipping all three back to the GOP in one election, with “No” being favored at -300, underscoring the difficulty of achieving this outcome given the Democrats’ recent successes here.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats have a significant base in urban areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, while Republicans dominate rural regions. The key battlegrounds are the suburbs, which can swing either way depending on the issues that resonate most with voters. For Republicans to win here, they would need to address suburban concerns, likely focusing on issues like crime, education, and economic growth. At the same time, they would need to turn out rural voters in high numbers, as they did in 2016, to counterbalance Democratic urban strongholds.

Michigan’s electorate is similarly divided, with Democrats doing well in Detroit and its suburbs, while Republicans hold sway in rural areas and smaller towns. The economic challenges facing Michigan, particularly in the automotive and manufacturing sectors, make job creation and economic policy crucial for winning this state. Michigan is home to a large Muslim community, which has shown some resistance to Harris and Biden’s handling of Israel’s war with Hamas. If enough of these voters simply abstain from voting entirely, that could be enough to tip the scales in favor of Trump in a tight race.

Wisconsin, meanwhile, has become a perennial swing state, with Milwaukee providing a solid base for Democrats and rural areas leaning heavily Republican. The suburbs around Milwaukee are often the deciding factor, with a mix of conservative and moderate voters who prioritize issues like taxes and healthcare. A Republican sweep here would suggest that the GOP has effectively unified its rural base and appealed to suburban swing voters. However, the odds on “No” highlight that such a result is far from guaranteed, given the diverse voter bases across these states.

While he did it in 2016, I don’t think Trump will flip all 3 of these states red in 2024.

Bet: No -300

Sun Belt Sweep – Democrats

• Yes: +2000
• No: -5000

A Democratic sweep in the Sun Belt would be an unprecedented victory for the party. That would be a transformative shift in these traditionally Republican states. The +2000 odds for “Yes” reflect the difficulty of this outcome, given the GOP’s historical dominance in this region. However, recent demographic changes and shifting political attitudes have made parts of the Sun Belt increasingly competitive, as evidenced by Democratic gains in Arizona and Georgia in the 2020 election.

Look at the odds. As I mentioned before, I think there’s a pretty good chance Trump will win at least 3 of these states. He looks to be most vulnerable in North Carolina. Democrats claimed 3 of these Sun Belt states in the last election, but I’m not quite convinced Texas is attainable just yet despite the fact that it’s trending more purple these days.

Bet: No -5000

Blue Wall Sweep – Democrats

• Yes: +2000
• No: -5000

A Democratic sweep of the Blue Wall states would represent a strong showing for the party in states that have been fiercely contested in recent elections. While these states have traditionally leaned Democratic, they demonstrated their competitiveness in 2016 when all three voted for Trump, only to swing back to Biden in 2020. The odds of +2000 for a Democratic sweep show that while possible, bookmakers view it as an uphill battle for the Democrats to secure all three states. The “No” side is heavily favored at -5000, reflecting the challenges posed by these battleground states’ nuanced political landscapes.

For months, we’ve been hearing about Pennsylvania as the lynchpin to this election one way or the other. Whichever candidate secures the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes will have a much clearer path to crossing the threshold of 270 needed for victory. Pennsylvania was the state that ultimately put Biden over the mark in ’20.

While I have very little faith in the Democrats’ ability to sweep the Sun Belt, I think the +2000 odds on them to sweep the Blue Wall are a little crazy. They won these states in the last election, and they’ve historically voted in unison. The last time all 3 of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin failed to vote in the same direction in the same election was in 1988. Pennsylvania and Michigan voted for George H.W. Bush, while Wisconsin went for Michael Dukakis.

I will gladly take a flier on the Dems to sweep the Blue Wall at +2000. The upside is too good to pass up.

Bet: Yes +2000

President/Senate Double – Arizona

• Split Ticket: +150
• Same Party: -200

This bet hinges on whether Arizona’s voters will elect the same party in both the presidential and Senate races or choose a split ticket. Arizona’s recent political shifts make it a unique case in modern American elections. Once a conservative stronghold, Arizona has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, particularly in 2020, when it voted for Joe Biden and elected two Democratic senators. However, the odds favor the “Same Party” outcome at -200, reflecting that partisan alignment in presidential and Senate races has become more common as the country grows more polarized.

The possibility of a split ticket at +150 speaks to Arizona’s independent streak. Many voters in the state prioritize candidate qualities over strict party loyalty, and with the state’s growing population of younger and more diverse residents, voting patterns are becoming harder to predict. For instance, independents and moderate Republicans, especially in Maricopa County, could lean toward a Democratic presidential candidate but vote for a Republican Senate candidate if they feel it better represents their values. Arizona’s Senate race, therefore, could attract cross-party votes if voters perceive one candidate as more centrist or capable than the other.

If the same party wins both races, it would indicate a consolidation of party loyalty, suggesting that the Arizona electorate is becoming more partisan in its voting behavior. In this scenario, Democrats or Republicans would have effectively persuaded both urban and rural voters to support their candidates across the board. This would likely mean that the winning party has crafted a message that resonates not only with Arizona’s progressive, urban base in Phoenix and Tucson but also with the more conservative, rural regions. Key issues here could include immigration policy, economic growth, and healthcare, all of which affect Arizona voters directly.

I think Harris has a chance to keep Arizona blue, but I’d bet on Trump to win this state. However, I don’t think GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake has a legit chance to beat Democrat Ruben Gallego. Lake has consistently run behind Trump in polls, while Gallego has led this race wire-to-wire. I love the value on split ticket here at +150.

Bet: Split Ticket +150

Balance of Power Parlay: House/Senate

• Democrats (S) + Republicans (H): +110
• Republicans (S) + Republicans (H): +115
• Democrats (S) + Democrats (H): +175
• Republicans (S) + Democrats (H): +500

This parlay bet includes combinations of party control across the U.S. House and Senate, reflecting the balance of power dynamics at stake in the 2024 elections. The most favored outcome, according to the odds, is a split Congress with Democrats controlling the Senate and Republicans holding the House at +110. That’s identical to the current balance of power, though the parties in power both hold extremely thin majorities.

A scenario where Republicans control both chambers, at +115, is nearly as likely, indicating that there is at least some chance of a Republican wave in 2024. This outcome would give Republicans the ability to advance conservative legislation without obstruction from a Democratic Senate, leading to potential policy shifts on issues like taxes, government spending, and regulation. A Republican-controlled Congress would likely face challenges in passing major legislation if there’s a Democratic president, but it would have significant oversight power and could influence judicial appointments.

The outcome where Democrats control both chambers is less likely, with odds at +175. For this to happen, Democrats would need to not only retain the Senate but also overcome Republican advantages in the House. This would require high voter turnout among Democratic-leaning groups and effective campaigning in competitive House districts. If Democrats were to control both chambers, it could lead to legislative action on issues like climate change, voting rights, and healthcare reform. However, given the current political climate, a unified Democratic Congress is seen as a more challenging prospect.

The least likely scenario, Republicans controlling the Senate and Democrats the House at +500, underscores the difficulty of this unusual power split. Historically, control of the Senate and House tends to align with the overall political mood. This outcome would require an atypical voter preference pattern, possibly influenced by strong candidates in specific races or localized issues. In such a scenario, both parties would need to negotiate extensively to pass legislation, creating a more complex and gridlocked political landscape.

The best value bet is for Republicans to control both chambers at +115 odds. I think down-ballot GOP candidates have a better chance of winning their respective elections than Trump does.

Bet: Republicans (S) + Republicans (H) +115

Tipping Point State

• Pennsylvania: +200
• Michigan: +300
• Wisconsin: +500
• North Carolina: +450
• Georgia: +700
• Arizona: +900
• Nevada: +2200
• Florida: +2200
• Texas: +4000
• Minnesota: +5000
• New Mexico: +5000
• New Hampshire: +5000

The tipping point state bet focuses on predicting which state will be the decisive factor in determining the 2024 presidential election. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all considered possible tipping points due to their large populations, historical competitiveness, and the fact that each has swung between parties in recent elections. Pennsylvania is the favorite at +200, as PA is believed to be the key to the race for both parties.

However, it was Wisconsin that put Biden over the top in 2020. Pennsylvania was the decider in 2016 for Trump. Interestingly enough, Colorado was the decisive state in both of Barack Obama’s election wins in 2008 and 2012.

Pennsylvania’s position as the favorite is due to its balanced mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters, making it a microcosm of American political diversity. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh provide a strong base for Democrats, while rural areas tend to favor Republicans. The suburbs around Philadelphia, such as Bucks and Montgomery counties, often lean moderate and are thus highly contested. The state’s demographic diversity and range of voter issues, from healthcare to job security, make it a prime candidate for deciding the election if the race is close.

Pennsylvania may also take longer than several other states to count its votes, which means it will be called one way or the other after several other states have already been decided. I don’t think the value on most of these other states is really worth chasing considering we’re getting the favorite – Pennsylvania – at +200.

Bet: Pennsylvania (+200)

US Presidential Election 2024 – Third Party Candidate to Get the Most Votes

• Jill Stein: +500
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: +175
• Chase Oliver: +700
• Cornel West: +400
• Vermin Supreme: +5000

This bet focuses on which third-party candidate will receive the most votes in the 2024 presidential election. Third-party candidates struggle to gain significant traction in U.S. presidential races due to the strong two-party system. However, in recent years, dissatisfaction with both major parties has led to increased interest in alternative candidates. The odds here reflect varying levels of visibility and support among the third-party contenders, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the favorite at +175, followed by Cornel West at +400, and lesser-known candidates like Chase Oliver and Vermin Supreme (???) at +700 and +5000, respectively.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the frontrunner in this bet due to his name recognition and political background. A prominent anti-vaccine activist and environmental lawyer, Kennedy initially ran as a Democrat before deciding to campaign as an independent, hoping to appeal to voters across the political spectrum. In the end, he wound up suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump for president. However, RFK Jr.’s name is still on the ballot as a candidate in several states.

Cornel West, a renowned philosopher and civil rights activist, is also a strong contender for the most third-party votes. Running as a representative of progressive ideals, West’s campaign focuses on issues like wealth inequality, racial justice, and opposition to corporate influence in politics. His platform may resonate with left-leaning voters who feel that the Democratic Party has not done enough to address these issues. However, West’s influence is likely limited to a niche segment of the electorate, as third-party candidates rarely attract mainstream support in a general election. Nonetheless, he could draw votes from progressive-leaning voters who are disillusioned with the Democratic Party.

The remaining candidates—Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, and Vermin Supreme—are expected to gather smaller numbers of votes. Jill Stein, a familiar name from the Green Party, may attract a fraction of environmentally-focused voters, though her influence has waned since 2016. Chase Oliver, running as a Libertarian, appeals to voters who prioritize personal freedom and limited government. Vermin Supreme, known for his satirical campaigns and unusual policies, is unlikely to be taken seriously by most voters but has a small, devoted fan base.

Bet: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +175

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Win In Any State?

• Yes: +8000
• No: -20000

No. There’s no reason to overthink things here. There’s absolutely no chance that RFK Jr. wins any of the 50 states in this election. In fact, I have just as much of a chance to win a state in this election as Kennedy does.

Bet: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. -20000