2024 Presidential Election Odds and Predictions

It may be hard to believe, but we’re only a couple of months away from yet another US presidential election. Unless you’ve been living on Mars, you’re also likely well aware of how dramatically the election outlook has shifted over the past month.

A month ago at this time, Donald Trump was a heavy favorite to defeat Joe Biden and return to the White House. Unfortunately for Trump, he now looks like a victim of his own success. Biden’s disastrous showing in the June 27th debate ultimately led to his decision to leave the race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for the job.

Earlier this week, Harris officially named Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. The election odds have shifted considerably over the past month. Trump was as heavy as a -300 favorite at some political betting sites. Now, however, the race appears to be a virtual tie. Here’s hoping you didn’t wager on Trump at those old odds.

There’s still value on betting on the election as it draws nearer. Let’s take a deep dive into the updated election odds and the state of the race. Not only will we examine who wins the 2024 Presidential election, but we’ll also take a look at the political landscape which includes the Swing States that could decide the upcoming presidency.

2024 Presidential Election Odds

The latest odds to win the 2024 US Presidential Election have Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both listed at -115. This creates a fascinating scenario where both candidates are considered to have an equal chance of winning, according to the oddsmakers. Here’s a closer look at what these odds signify.

When you see both candidates listed with -115 odds, it means that they are equally favored in the eyes of bookmakers. If you were to place a bet on either Trump or Harris to win the election, you would need to wager $115 to win $100. The close alignment in odds suggests that this may be a highly competitive election, with no clear favorite emerging…yet.

Donald Trump (-115)

As usual, Trump is no stranger to the headlines. After his assassination attempt and the subsequent GOP Convention, the 2024 election was Trump’s to lose. Now, though, he appears to be losing ground. Just this week, Trump has lost the endorsement of various right-wing personalities, including Joe Rogan, Tim Pool, and Nick Fuentes.

Trump’s sliding election odds coincide with his sliding poll numbers. When Trump’s candidacy was at its high point, some were wondering whether traditionally blue states like Virginia and Minnesota could be in play for the 45th POTUS this November. Now, however, the script has flipped completely. Traditionally right-leaning states – including North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada – appear to be trending toward the Harris column.

Despite the countless controversies and challenges he has faced, Trump’s loyal base remains a significant force in American politics. While his odds are trending in the wrong direction, there is still a long way to go before Election Day. Given the incredible pace with which the news cycle moves nowadays, there’s no telling what will happen between now and November that could swing the pendulum back in favor of the former president.

It’s fair to expect both campaigns to spend most of their time in crucial swing states that will ultimately decide the election. The outcome in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will be pivotal in determining whether Trump can secure another term in office. As the election season progresses, it’s essential to monitor how Trump’s odds shift in response to his campaign strategies and any new developments.

So far, his campaign has struggled to adapt to the new reality that he’s facing Harris instead of Biden. If Trump doesn’t find a way to shift the tone and stay on message, he could be headed for a second straight election defeat.

Kamala Harris (-115)

On the other side, Kamala Harris has seen her election odds gradually improve in the weeks since she officially entered the race in place of Biden. As the current Vice President, Harris has an advantage of incumbency, though it likely isn’t as strong as it would be for an incumbent president. Her current -115 reflects her position as the new leader of the Democratic Party and her potential to mobilize key demographics, particularly women and minority voters.

Harris’ campaign has tried to emphasize her experience and the progress made during her tenure as Vice President. While some expected things to get ugly within the party if Biden dropped out, the reality has been the exact opposite. The Democrats quickly unified behind Harris’ candidacy, and her momentum in the race is unquestioned at this point.

The Democrats are clearly in something of a honeymoon phase at the moment considering Harris’ candidacy is barely over 2 weeks old. While the VP announcement and upcoming Democratic National Convention give them a chance to keep the momentum going, every campaign endures its fair share of ups and downs. It’s likely just a matter of time until the Kamala campaign endures some sort of adversity.

How they deal with that adversity will go a long way toward determining whether she can become the first woman ever elected president of the US. The fact that Harris has yet to sit down for an in-depth interview still makes her something of an unknown from a policy standpoint. It’s fair to assume she will hold many of the same positions Biden does, though there will surely be some discrepancies, as well. We just don’t really know what they are yet.

Voter Demographics and Their Impact

Understanding voter demographics is essential for predicting the outcome of the 2024 election. Different groups of voters – divided by age, race, gender, and education level – will have a major impact on which party ultimately comes out on top in November.

• Young Voters: Younger voters tend to lean more Democratic, and Harris will likely focus on issues such as climate change, student debt relief, and social justice to appeal to this demographic. However, mobilizing young voters to turn out on election day remains a challenge, especially in light of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
• Minority Voters: Harris’s candidacy as the first woman of color on a major party’s presidential ticket could galvanize minority voters. However, Trump has made efforts to appeal to minority groups, particularly Hispanic and Black voters, which could narrow the margins in critical states. Immigration is also shaping up to be a major issue in this election, which is a topic that generally favors Trump.
• Suburban Women: This demographic was crucial in the 2020 election, as it effectively swung the results in favor of Biden. Suburban women – especially those with college degrees – have gradually shifted away from Trump in recent years. Harris will likely emphasize issues like healthcare and education to win over these voters, while Trump may focus on economic policies and security concerns. The abortion issue could drive turnout in this election. That’s an area of strength for Harris given the overwhelming national support for women to control their own healthcare decisions.

The Influence of Campaign Strategies

Campaign strategies will be a decisive factor in the 2024 election. Both candidates will need to carefully tailor their messages to resonate with key voter demographics and address the issues that matter most to them.

• Trump’s Strategy: Trump is expected to double down on his “America First” agenda, emphasizing economic growth, immigration control, and national security. His rallies and social media presence will continue to be central to his campaign – for better or worse – as he seeks to energize his base and appeal to undecided voters.
• Harris’ Strategy: Harris will likely focus on a message of unity and progress, building on the achievements of the Biden Administration. She will need to address the concerns of both progressive and moderate Democrats, while also reaching out to independents and disillusioned Republicans. Her strategy will include a strong emphasis on healthcare, climate action, and social equity.

Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

The 2024 US Presidential Election is shaping up to be a tightly contested battle between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, at least according to the current betting odds. Both candidates have their strengths and challenges. As the political environment evolves, so too will their chances of winning. With the odds currently at -115 for both, it’s clear that this election could go either way, making it one of the most unpredictable races in recent memory.

As we move closer to election day, it will be crucial to keep an eye on the latest developments and how they impact the odds. Whether it’s campaign events, debates, or unforeseen events, anything can tip the scales in favor of one candidate. For now, the race remains wide open, with both Trump and Harris positioned as strong contenders for the White House.

Given the momentum of Harris, it’s hard to bet against her to keep the White House for the Democrats. Trump’s recent struggles and the disastrous rollout of VP candidate JD Vance have him on the ropes. Harris isn’t quite home free, but I’d much rather bet on her current -115 odds than wager on Trump at the same number. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kamala’s odds continue to improve, so strike while there’s still some value here.

Bet: Kamala Harris (-115)

Presidential Election Prop Bets

With the 2024 Presidential Election heating up, political betting sites are releasing more Presidential prop bets. Let’s take a closer look at some of these prop bets and make more Presidential Election predictions.

Popular Vote Winner Odds

• Kamala Harris: -400
• Donald Trump Sr.: +250

The odds for Kamala Harris to win the popular vote stand at -400, which indicates that she is the clear favorite according to betting markets. A moneyline of -400 means you would need to wager $400 to win $100 on Harris securing the popular vote. These odds suggest a strong belief in Harris’s ability to capture widespread support.

On the other hand, Donald Trump’s odds of +250 to win the popular vote signify that while he is not the favorite, he has a viable chance. A bet of $100 on Trump would yield a $250 profit if he were to win the popular vote. This reflects a recognition of Trump’s continued influence and his ability to mobilize a significant portion of the electorate.

Unfortunately for Trump, history is not on his side. This will be Trump’s third appearance on a presidential ballot. The next time he wins the national popular vote will be the first. Trump won the presidency in 2016 thanks to winning more Electoral College votes than Hillary Clinton.

In terms of popular vote, however, Clinton racked up 65,853,514 votes to Trump’s 62,984,828. That was a fairly low-turnout election, which may have ultimately cost Clinton in her bid for the White House. Nearly 129 million Americans voted in the 2016 election.

Back in 2020, Trump lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College vote to Joe Biden. Biden totaled 81,283,501 votes that year, which is the most of any candidate in US history. Trump, however, recorded the 2nd-most-ever votes with 74,223,975. Over 155 million Americans voted in ’20.

No Republican candidate has won the national popular vote since George W. Bush way back in 2004. In 2016, Trump became the first person since Bush in 2000 to win the election despite losing the popular vote.

Why is Harris Favored?

Kamala Harris’s position as the favorite is likely rooted in several factors:

• Democratic Demographics: Harris may benefit from the strong turnout among minority voters, women, and young people, demographics that typically lean Democratic.
• Incumbent Party Advantage: If Harris is running as the sitting Vice President, she could benefit from the existing political infrastructure and support of the incumbent party.

While Democratic voter enthusiasm was lacking while Biden was still the candidate, Harris’ ascendance to the top of the ticket has seemingly galvanized the Dem base. Trump’s standing in presidential polls in most swing states has suffered since Harris became the Democratic nominee, and it’s fair to expect another high-turnout election similar to what we saw in 2020.

Harris is the smart bet to win the popular vote, as Democratic candidates have done in every election for the last 2 decades. The problem, however, is you’re getting very limited upside with her current -400 popular vote odds.

Best Bet: Kamala Harris (-400)

Margin of Victory in Popular Vote Odds

Let’s dive into the odds for the margin of victory in the popular vote for both candidates.

Analysis of Margin of Victory Odds

For Kamala Harris, the most favorable odds are for a victory margin of 2.50% – 4.99% at +200, indicating a moderately strong win is the most expected outcome by oddsmakers. This suggests that while Harris is the favorite, the race will likely still be relatively close.

For Donald Trump, the best odds are also for a narrow victory margin of 0% – 2.49% at +350, highlighting that if Trump were to win, it would likely be by a slim margin. The significantly longer odds for higher victory margins (+5000 for 7.50% – 9.99%) suggest that a landslide win for Trump is seen as highly unlikely.

What Does History Tell Us?

Recent US presidential elections have been hotly contested both in terms of Electoral College and popular vote. In fact, we haven’t seen a single presidential election decided by more than 10 percentage points in terms of popular vote since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory over Walter Mondale in 1984. Reagan attracted a whopping 58.8% of the popular vote that year, while Mondale garnered just 40.6%. Reagan’s 18.6% margin of victory is the largest since Richard Nixon trounced George McGovern in 1972.

While Biden won more than 51% of the popular vote 4 years ago, he won by just 4.5 percentage points over Trump. Hillary Clinton, in defeat, beat Trump by about 2 percentage points in 2016.

Many have compared the enthusiasm generated by the Harris campaign to the hype Barack Obama was able to generate during his first presidential run in 2008. Obama won a then-record 69,498,516 votes in his defeat of Republican challenger John McCain. Obama won the popular vote that year by 7.3%. That’s the biggest margin of victory in terms of popular vote since Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by 8.5% in 1996.

While polls are currently favoring Harris to beat Trump, this is going to be an incredibly close election. A lot can happen between now and November, but I have a hard time imagining Trump winning the popular vote at this point. He had a path to victory in that regard when Biden was still in the race, but the dynamics have shifted against him in recent weeks.

Prediction: Who Will Win?

Based on the odds, Kamala Harris is favored to win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election, with a predicted victory margin of around 2.50% – 4.99%. The combination of her demographic appeal and incumbent advantages positions her strongly, although the race is expected to be competitive.

Donald Trump, while a formidable candidate, appears less likely to secure the popular vote according to these odds. If he does win, it would likely be by a very narrow margin.

Best Bet: Kamala Harris to win the popular vote with a margin of 2.50% - 4.99%.

Electoral College Odds

Democrats’ Chances: Over or Under 269.5 Electoral Votes

The odds for the Democratic candidate to secure over 269.5 electoral votes are set at -130, which makes them a slight favorite to cross this threshold. A moneyline of -130 means that you would need to bet $130 to win $100. This line is particularly intriguing as it sits just above the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency, suggesting that the Democrats are expected to be competitive, but perhaps not overwhelmingly dominant.

On the flip side, the odds for the Democrats to fall short of 269.5 electoral votes are slightly less favorable at -110. Here, a $110 bet would return $100 if the Harris-Walz ticket falls under this critical number. The closeness of these odds indicates a belief that while the Democrats have a good chance of winning, it’s not guaranteed—they could very well end up just below the threshold, potentially throwing the election into a contingent election or favoring the Republican candidate.

Republicans’ Chances: Over or Under 311.5 Electoral Votes

The odds for the Republican candidate to win over 311.5 electoral votes are set at a significant +400, which implies a lower likelihood of this outcome. A bet of $100 would yield $400 if the Republicans surpass this number. This suggests that while it’s possible for the Republicans to achieve a sizable victory, it’s seen as an underdog scenario.

Conversely, the odds for the Republican candidate to finish under 311.5 electoral votes are steeply favored at -700. You would need to bet $700 just to win $100 on this outcome, indicating that bookmakers strongly believe the Republican candidate will not achieve a landslide victory and will likely finish well below the 311.5 vote mark.

Analyzing the Implications

The odds paint a picture of a highly competitive election, with neither party overwhelmingly favored to win by a large margin. Harris is slightly favored to reach or exceed the necessary 270 electoral votes, but the odds suggest it could be a close race, potentially decided by just a few key states.

For the Republican candidate, while there is a long-shot chance of a landslide victory (over 311.5 electoral votes), the odds strongly favor a more modest showing. This could indicate that the Republican path to victory may involve winning just enough key states to secure a narrow win or falling short of a dominant electoral count.

Frankly, this 311.5 over/under for Trump is bonkers. The GOP nominee topping 312 electoral votes looked like a possibility back when Biden was in the race, but the numbers have shifted considerably since VP Harris supplanted him at the top of the Democratic ticket.

There’s a reason the under is juiced so heavily at -700. BetUS needs to lower the number considerably in order for this to be a tempting prop.

Best Electoral College Bets

Based on the odds, it seems likely that the 2024 election will be closely contested, with Harris having a slightly better chance of reaching the required 270 electoral votes. However, the race appears far from certain, and the chances of a nail-biter finish are very high.

As of now, there’s simply no logic in betting on Trump to top 312 electoral votes, even at the alluring +400 odds.

Best Bet: Democrats Over 269.5 (-130), Republicans Under 311.5 (-700)

Swing State Election Odds

The odds provided by various political betting sites give us a glimpse into the competitive landscape. Let’s take a look at the odds and break down how the races may pan out in the following swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Which candidate will win each state, and which candidate has the cleaner path to 270 electoral votes in November?

Arizona Odds

• Democrats: +100
• Republicans: -140

Arizona has been a battleground state in recent elections, and the 2024 presidential race is no exception. The odds favor the Republicans at -140, indicating that bookmakers believe the GOP has a stronger chance of securing the popular vote here. This aligns with Arizona’s historical tendency to lean Republican, although recent elections have shown a shift. In 2020, Joe Biden narrowly won Arizona, becoming the first Democrat to do so since Bill Clinton in 1996. Biden’s 1,672,143 votes in Arizona narrowly edged Trump’s total of 1,661,686, and the state’s 11 electoral votes were crucial in his election victory.

The Republican advantage in the odds could be attributed to several factors. First, the state’s demographic changes have been more gradual compared to some other battleground states. While there has been an increase in younger and more diverse voters who tend to lean Democratic, the GOP still maintains a strong base among older and rural voters. Arizona’s warm weather makes it an attractive destination for retirees, and we know older folks are generally more inclined to vote than younger generations.

Additionally, local issues and candidates can significantly influence voter turnout and preferences in Arizona.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the race for one of Arizona’s US Senate seats may impact the presidential voter turnout. With Kyrsten Sinema set to leave the Senate, the seat is up for grabs between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican challenger Kari Lake. The latest Senate polls from Arizona indicate Gallego is running well ahead of Lake, which could bode well for Harris’ chances of toppling Trump at the top of the ballot.

As a result, Democrats remain optimistic about their chances. Local Democrats are hoping Harris’ replacement of Biden as the presidential nominee will aid efforts to register new voters and engage with communities that traditionally have lower turnout rates. The state’s growing Latino population, which tends to favor Democrats, could be a decisive factor if the party effectively mobilizes these voters.

Ultimately, Arizona remains a toss-up, and both parties will need to invest heavily in campaign efforts to sway the electorate in their favor. As of now, I think the best value bet is to take Harris at even-money with the most polls trending in her direction.

Best Bet: Harris (+100)

Georgia Odds

• Democrats: +110
• Republicans: -150

Georgia, traditionally a Republican stronghold, surprised many by flipping blue in the 2020 presidential election and again in the Senate runoffs. Despite this shift, the current odds favor Republicans at -150, suggesting that oddsmakers believe the GOP has a stronger chance of reclaiming the popular vote in 2024. This belief likely stems from Georgia’s long history of voting Republican and the relatively narrow margins by which Democrats won in recent elections.

In 2020, Biden picked up 2,473,633 votes in Georgia to squeak past Trump’s total of 2,461,854. Georgia’s 16 electoral votes also helped Biden to cross the threshold of 270 and secure the presidency. You may remember Trump literally calling Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger and asking him to find the necessary 11,780 votes to skew the results in his favor. Trump was subsequently indicted for that, among other things.

In spite of it all, Trump is still a slight favorite to reclaim the Peach State in ’24. He topped 50% of the popular vote in Georgia back in 2016 when he famously upset Hillary Clinton, so there’s some precedent here.

Trump’s -130 odds reflect confidence in the GOP’s ability to rally its base, particularly in rural areas and smaller cities. These areas have been crucial to past Republican election victories. Additionally, issues such as the economy and public safety, which often resonate more with conservative voters, could play a significant role in swaying undecided voters. The GOP will likely focus on these topics to regain ground lost in the previous election cycle.

On the other hand, Democrats are not standing still. They have been working to build on their recent successes by expanding their outreach efforts, particularly among young voters and communities of color. Stacey Abrams’ voter mobilization efforts have been instrumental in increasing Democratic turnout, and similar strategies will be crucial in 2024. The outcome in Georgia will likely hinge on turnout, making voter engagement and grassroots campaigning key components of both parties’ strategies.

The polls are incredibly close, and Georgia is another state that looks like a legitimate toss-up. I wouldn’t be surprised if Harris’ ability to turn out African American voters – especially in Atlanta – helps her to keep the state blue, but it’s worth noting Trump still holds a slight edge in most polling

Best Bet: Trump (-150)

Michigan Odds

• Democrats: -200
• Republicans: +150

Michigan is another crucial battleground state with significant implications for the 2024 election. Unlike Arizona and Georgia, the odds favor Democrats at -200, indicating that oddsmakers see the state leaning towards the Democratic Party. Michigan’s recent voting history supports this view, as the state has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 1992, except for 2016 when Donald Trump narrowly won.

Michigan is one of three “Blue Wall” states in the Rust Belt that Democrats believe they must win in order to have a path to 270 electoral votes. Clinton lost all three of them in 2016, while Biden bounced back to win them all four years ago. Biden pulled 2,804,040 votes here in 2020 compared to Trump’s 2,649,852.

Several factors contribute to the Democratic advantage in Michigan. The state’s urban areas, particularly Detroit, have large populations that historically vote Democratic. Additionally, labor unions, which have a strong presence in Michigan, typically support Democratic candidates. On Wednesday, the president of the United Auto Workers’ Union (UAW) spoke at Harris’ rally in Detroit and endorsed the Democratic candidate. The UAW had previously endorsed Biden prior to his decision to drop out.

The Democrats’ focus on issues such as healthcare, education, and workers’ rights resonates well with Michigan’s voters, particularly in the industrial regions.

One potential stumbling block for the Democrats in Michigan could be the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. Michigan is home to a sizable Arab American population that vocally opposes the US’ role in assisting Israel in its ongoing efforts in the Middle East. Over 100,000 voters voted “uncommitted” instead of backing Biden in February’s Michigan primary. In all likelihood, Harris is going to have to find a way to win support in this voting bloc if she is going to keep Michigan blue.

However, Trump is not without hope here. The GOP can still count on support in the state’s rural areas, where conservative values and economic concerns drive voter preferences. The key for the GOP will be whether they can flip suburban voters who may have defected to the Democrats in the last go-round. That’ll be no small feat, especially with a popular female candidate now leading the Democratic ticket.

Best Bet: Harris (-200)

Nevada Odds

• Democrats: -110
• Republicans: -130

Nevada’s odds favor Republicans at -130, reflecting a competitive but slightly Republican-leaning landscape. The odds are shifting toward the Dems, however, as the Republicans were listed as -150 favorites as of August 7th.

Nevada has been a swing state in recent elections, with Democrats winning the presidential vote in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020, but by narrow margins. The odds suggest that bookmakers believe Republicans have a slight edge going into the 2024 election, possibly due to shifting demographics and political dynamics.

One of the key factors in Nevada’s electoral landscape is the state’s diverse population, which includes a significant Latino community that has traditionally leaned Democratic. However, recent trends indicate that the GOP has been making inroads with these voters, particularly on issues related to the economy and immigration. Immigration is one of the issues that generally favors the Republican ticket.

The state’s economic dependency on tourism and hospitality, sectors hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, could also play a crucial role in shaping voter preferences. Many in the state struggled to recover after forced shutdowns back in 2020.

Republicans are likely to focus on economic recovery and job creation as central themes of their campaign, appealing to voters’ desire for stability and growth. On the other hand, Democrats will aim to reinforce their support among minority communities and emphasize policies related to healthcare, education, and workers’ rights. Both parties will need to navigate Nevada’s complex and evolving political landscape to secure a victory in the popular vote.

Despite Nevada having gone blue in every presidential election since 2008, I think the immigration issue could be enough to swing it back into the Republican column in ’24.

Best Bet: Trump (-130)

Pennsylvania Odds

• Democrats: -130
• Republicans: -110

Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, is a significant prize in any presidential election. The odds favor Democrats at -130, indicating a slight edge over Republicans, who are listed at -110. Pennsylvania has been a swing state for years, flipping between parties in recent elections. In 2020, Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by a narrow margin, flipping it back to the Democrats after Donald Trump’s victory in 2016.

Many believe the Democrats won’t have a realistic path to 270 votes without winning the Keystone State. The Republicans, however, still have an easier route even if they fail to claim Pennsylvania. The state’s importance led many to believe Harris would choose Pennsylvania’s popular Governor – Josh Shapiro – as her running mate. However, she ultimately selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to fill the position.

We’ll see if the Harris campaign ultimately regrets the decision to pass on Shapiro. The young Governor has an approval rating north of 60 percent in his home state, which is unusually high given the current era of political division in which we live. The Trump campaign was reportedly relieved that Harris chose Walz over Shapiro given how important Pennsylvania is to both candidates’ presidential aspirations.

Several factors contribute to the Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania. The state’s urban centers, such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, have large populations that typically vote Democratic. Additionally, the suburbs around these cities have trended blue in recent elections, driven by changing demographics and shifting political attitudes. The Democratic Party’s focus on healthcare, infrastructure, and labor rights resonates well with many Pennsylvania voters, particularly in the working-class regions.

As is the case in most states, Republicans will make their hay with rural voters. The GOP’s emphasis on energy policies, particularly regarding natural gas and fracking, is also a significant factor in regions like the Marcellus Shale. Harris came out in support of a fracking ban during her 2020 campaign for the presidency, but she has since reportedly flipped on the issue. That’ll presumably aid her chances of retaining PA’s 20 votes in 2024.

Both parties will need to engage in robust voter outreach and address local issues to win over undecided voters and ensure high turnout among their base. Democrats are currently favored here, though, and I think they’ll ultimately ride their current wave of momentum to a second consecutive victory.

Best Bet: Harris (-130)

Wisconsin Odds

• Democrats: -130
• Republicans: -110

Wisconsin is yet another highly competitive battleground state, with the odds reflecting an evenly matched race. Harris is again a slight -130 favorite here, while Trump’s chances have slipped to -110. The state has a history of close elections, with razor-thin margins deciding recent presidential contests. In 2020, Joe Biden won Wisconsin by a mere 0.63%, underscoring the state’s status as a true toss-up.

Several factors contribute to the balanced odds in Wisconsin. The state’s urban areas, such as Milwaukee and Madison, lean Democratic, while the rural regions and smaller towns tend to favor Republicans. This urban-rural divide is a significant aspect of Wisconsin’s political landscape, making voter turnout and engagement crucial for both parties. Additionally, issues such as healthcare, education, and the economy play central roles in shaping voter preferences.

Clinton infamously declined to campaign in Wisconsin back in 2016 because she apparently thought the state’s 10 electoral votes were in the bag. She wound up losing by just under 23,000 votes. In 2020, Biden flipped the state blue by toppling Trump by around 20,000 votes. It’s fair to assume we’re in for yet another super-close race this time around.

Harris has already avoided making the same mistake Clinton did by staging a well-attended rally in Eau Claire alongside Walz earlier this week. She has since expanded a very tight lead over Trump in Wisconsin’s presidential polls.

The Democratic Party will likely focus on maintaining and expanding its support in urban areas and the suburbs, emphasizing policies that resonate with working-class and minority voters. On the other hand, Republicans will aim to bolster their base in rural areas and capitalize on concerns related to agriculture, manufacturing, and regulatory policies.

The outcome in Wisconsin will hinge on both parties’ ability to effectively mobilize their supporters and address the key issues affecting voters across the state. In the end, I expect Harris to keep the Badger State blue.

Best Bet: Harris (-130)