Week 3 NFL Sunday Night Football Odds: Chiefs vs. Falcons

On September 22, the Atlanta Falcons will host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football live from the Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

This will be just the 11^th time these two teams have ever played against each other. Each squad enters this SNF matchup after pulling off come from behind victories.

The Chiefs kicked a field goal at the end of the game to vanquish the Cincinnati Bengals who had played a terrific game up to that point. Cincy’s defense harassed Patrick Mahomes into one of his worst performances of the last few years. Unfortunately, the defense also committed a crucial pass interference penalty that put KC into field goal range to win the game.

The Falcons, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins, went down the field in about 30 seconds to score the go-ahead touchdown with roughly a half-minute left in the game. Atlanta not only shocked the Philadelphia Eagles team, but they sent the fans home in utter disbelief.

Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 3 NFL Predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons.

What Channel Is Sunday Night Football On?

• Sunday Night Football Channel: NBC and Peacock
• Sunday Night Football Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
• Sunday Night Football Announcers: Mike Tirico and Chris Collinsworth

Sunday Night Football Betting 

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for SNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

The Chiefs opened as a 3-point favorite when the lines came out in May. That number moved up to 3.5 over the summer then as high as -5 last week. However, after the Chiefs near-loss and the Falcons Week 2 win, the line has come back down to KC by 3.5 points.

The moneylines followed the same trajectory as the Chiefs opened at -155 favorites, went has high as -250 after their win on Sunday, before coming down to the current range of -175 to -185. The Falcons went from +130 to +200 before coming back down to a range of +150 to +160.

The Total went from an opening of 49 points to as high as 49.5 before settling at the current Over/Under of 46.5 total points.

Sunday Night Football Odds

The following Sunday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

As mentioned, Sunday’s meeting will be the 11^th time these two teams have played against each other. Currently, the Kansas City Chiefs have a commanding lead in this series with a 7-3 record.

Additionally, the Chiefs have won the last two head-to-head games, which includes the most recent contest in 2020. KC beat the Atlanta Falcons by the score of 17 to 14.

The Chiefs also have the edge in road games versus the Falcons with a 3-2 record. The last time KC played in Atlanta was 2016, the Chiefs won that game 29 to 28.

Sunday Night Football Betting Trends

Check out the following Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons betting trends:

Chiefs vs. Falcons Betting Trends

• KC is 7-3 SU in last 10 meetings
• Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in last six matchups
• Over is 5-1 in last six games
• Mahomes is 1-0 SU vs. Falcons

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

• 8-0 SU in last eight games
• 12-2 SU in last 14 road games
• 14-3 SU in last 17 NFC games
• 7-1 ATS in last eight games
• 1-4-1 ATS in last six NFC South games
• 11-3 ATS in last 14 Week 3 games
• Over is 4-1 in last five games

Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

• 2-5 SU in last seven games
• 6-14 SU in last 20 September games
• 1-5 SU in last six Sunday games
• 5-13 ATS in last 18 games
• 2-6 ATS in last eight home games
• 2-4 ATS in last six Week 3 games
• Under is 6-3 in last nine games

Sunday Night Football Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our NFL Sunday Night Football predictions. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Chiefs Offense vs. Falcons Defense

The Chiefs started off the season with quite possibly the toughest opening games: Ravens and Bengals. Yet, KC was able to pull out the one-score wins in both contests. However, each game came down to the last play on the last drive as time expired.

Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they will play the next six to eight weeks without their starting running back Isiah Pacheco who suffered a lower leg injury in the Week 2 game versus the Bengals. The Chiefs were averaging 110.5 rushing yards a game, which kept opposing defenses honest.

Now, it’s unclear how the Chiefs backfield will shake out. Rookie Carson Steele will get the first crack at the #1 running back spot. He will be joined by Samaje Perine. Additionally, the Chiefs have brought back Kareem Hunt after they kicked him out of town in 2018.

The Falcons have one of the worst run defenses in the league as they allow 161.5 yards per game. The Eagles chewed up Atlanta’s run defense on Monday Night Football in Week 2.

Atlanta has the 7^th ranked pass defense at 156 yards per game. However, with a wounded running game, you can expect Patrick Mahomes to lead this offense like he normally does. The only difference is that Mahomes will definitely be throwing for more than 26.5 attempts per game. You can expect this number to go beyond 30 attempts against Atlanta.

Mahomes’ top target Travis Kelce has only tallied four receptions for 39 yards in two weeks. He’s also only been targeted just seven times. These numbers need to significantly increase in Week 3, if the Chiefs’ offense wants to have success without Pacheco.

Falcons Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

The Atlanta offense looked night and day from Week 1 to Week 2. Against the Steelers in Week 1, Kirk Cousins threw for just 155 yards and 2 INTs. He looked like he was running in mud. That all changed by the second half of the MNF matchup versus the Eagles.

Cousins led the Falcons to 16 second-half points and two touchdown throws to upset the Eagles by the score of 22 to 21. The second TD was to Drake London with 34 seconds left in the game. Atlanta drove down the field quickly with Cousins throwing for 70 yards on five completions.

The Week 2 success bumped Atlanta’s passing attack up to 185 ypg, which is 20^th in the league. They’re 17^th in rushing yards at 120.5 ypg. The Chiefs are giving up 256.5 ypg through the air and that could be trouble for KC this weekend. Additionally, the Chiefs have yet to snag an interception on the season and are giving up 22.5 ppg.

If the Atlanta offensive line can hold up, then this offense might be able to string together two consecutive solid performances. If they can find some success on the ground, that will also open up their play-action passing attack.  

Who Wins SNF: Chiefs or Falcons?

Kansas City got lucky in Week 1 with Ravens’ tight end Isiah Likely catching the game-tying touchdown out of bounds by a big toe. In Week 2, they got lucky with a pass interference penalty on 4^th down to put them into FG position and win the game.

Will the Chiefs’ luck run out this weekend?

If KC can find a running game without Pacheco, then it will be status quo with the two-time defending champs. However, that’s a big “if”.

The Falcons were lucky to pull out that Week 2 win in Philadelphia. If they had lost, the odds for this game would be much different.

With that said, I think Mahomes will still work his magic and pick apart the Falcons secondary. Their overall pass defense hasn’t truly been tested yet, but it will this Sunday.

Atlanta played the anemic Pittsburgh offense in Week 1, who didn’t throw the ball much. In Week 2, the Falcons played an Eagles offense without their best receiver in AJ Brown who missed the game due to an injury.

The Chiefs have all of their passing weapons from the first two weeks ready to deploy. I see a bounce-back game for Travis Kelce on Sunday as he quiets the critics. I also see Mahomes having his best performance of the season so far, as he easily eclipses his 221 passing ypg average.

Take the Chiefs to win this game, but for the Falcons to cover the points. If you can get Atlanta at a higher spread, that would be ideal.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (-180), Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (-110)

Sunday Night Football Prop Bets

Check out our picks for the best Chiefs vs. Falcons Game and Player Prop bets:

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+125)

I am really high on Travis Kelce this weekend, and it’s not because of anything he’s done on the field this season. It really comes down to the fact that Kelce is publicly taking the blame for his slow start and willing to do what it takes to fix it:

“I put that on me. I didn’t play my best, and it spreads if you don’t fix it and I’ve got to get that thing fixed. If you want to catch the football, (1) it has to be the right play, (2) it has to be the right coverage, and (3) it has to be everybody doing their job up front and on the back end in terms of running their routes. For whatever reason, for these past two games, it hasn’t gone that way for me.”

I expect the first-ballot HOF tight end to fix whatever has been wrong and help lead this passing attack. Look for Kelce to score a TD most likely due to a trick play near the goal line.

Bet: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+125)

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards

• Over 48.5 yards (-110)
• Under 48.5 yards (-110)

Continuing with the Kelce trend, I’m also high on the TE getting at least 50 receiving yards this weekend. Over his illustrious career, Kelce has never had a season average below 50 ypg other than this season. His previous low was 2014, when he averaged 53.9 ypg. In 2015, he tallied 54.7 ypg. Since then, he’s never had a season average below 65 yards per game.

In his two career games versus the Falcons, Kelce has averaged 7.5 catches on 10.5 targets for 119 ypg. I expect Kelce to get at least 5 catches on 7 targets for a minimum of 50 yards. The Chiefs need their top receiving weapon to step up as the offense comes into this weekend’s game without a main contributor in Pacheco.

Bet: Over 48.5 yards (-110)

Kirk Cousins Passing Yards

• Over 224.5 yards (-110)
• Under 224.5 yards (-110)

This is probably the most under the radar wager for the SNF matchup. And, it’s one of my favorites for all of Week 3. In fact, it could just be the best wager for the entire game.

Currently, Atlanta’s QB Kirk Cousins is averaging 198 yards per game. However, that’s largely due to the first week clunker where he only threw for 155 yards against the Steelers. In Week 2, he threw for 241 yards and carved up the Eagles’ secondary in the fourth quarter to win the game.

A big reason why I like Cousins to have a strong performance on SNF, is due to the KC secondary playing at a subpar level. In fact, they’re playing as one of the worst units in the league.

The Chiefs’ defense is 31^st in the league, allowing 256.5 ypg. KC allowed Burrow to throw for 258 yards last weekend, and that came after Lamar Jackson threw for 273 yards in Week 1.

Cousins played against the Chiefs last year and threw for 284 yards, while leading the Vikings’ offense. It was his third straight performance of at least 220 passing yards against KC.

Against Philly in Week 2, both Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud showed their usefulness and effectiveness especially on the final drive of the game. Additionally, the Falcons also featured Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson out of the backfield.

I think Cousins can eclipse 250 yards on SNF and make this a highly competitive matchup.

Bet: Over 224.5 yards (-110)

First Touchdown Jersey #

• Odd (-165)
• Even (+135)

This prop bet is a fun one. But there’s a reason why the Odd betting option is heavily favored. That’s due to the number of star players wearing an odd jersey number.

• Chiefs: Worthy (1), Smith-Schuster (9), Mahomes (15), Gray (83), and Kelce (87)
• Falcons: Mooney (1), London (5), Robinson (7), and Allgeier (25)

As you can see, most of the star players for this game wear odd-numbered jerseys. So, when it comes to the first TD of the game, it’s likely that the scorer will wear and odd jersey number.

Bet: Odd (-165)

First Touchdown Jersey #

• Over 14.5 (-115)
• Under 14.5 (-115)

This gets a little bit trickier than the previous prop bet as we’re now splitting up the numbers on an Over/Under instead of Odd/Even. With that said, I like the Over for this prop bet as well. Here’s why:

• Chiefs: Mahomes (15), Perine (34), Steele (42), Gray (83), Watson (84) and Kelce (87)
• Falcons: Cousins (18), Allgeier (25), and McCloud (18)

The Over covers both QBs, who could easily sneak it in for a TD. It also covers both of the top running backs for the Chiefs, the short yardage and goal line back for the Falcons in Allgeier, and it covers all of KC’s most prominent red zone targets.

Bet: Over 14.5 (-115)

Team To Score In Every Quarter

• Chiefs: Yes (+190), No (-240)
• Falcons: Yes (+260), No (-350)

Oddsmakers heavily favor the No option for both teams. However, I wouldn’t be so quick to jump on this option. Well, for the Falcons, riding the favorite makes sense.

In Week 1 against the Steelers, the Falcons didn’t even score in the second half as they were shutout at home. In Week 2, the Falcons put up 16 points in the second half and scored in three quarters. However, they were blanked in the first quarter after getting off to a slow start.

For the Chiefs, they put up 27 points against the Ravens in Week 1 and scored in every quarter. In fact, they scored at least one TD in three of the four quarters. In the second quarter, the Chiefs kicked two field goals.

Against the Bengals in Week 2, the Chiefs finished with 26 points and scored in every quarter. That included three field goals in the fourth quarter to win the game as time expired. It also included scoring points even after starting RB Pacheco was injured.

Atlanta allowed Pittsburgh to score in every quarter during their opening weekend contest. Pittsburgh kicked at least one field goal in each quarter and finished with six FGs on the day.

Against the Eagles, Atlanta allowed Philly to score in the final three quarters. However, Philly could’ve scored in the First Quarter, which they were shutout, but they went for a 4^th and 4 at the nine-yard line instead of kicking a FG.

Take the Yes, for the Chiefs. They’ve scored in every quarter of play so far. And, the Falcons have given up points in seven of the eight quarters, but should’ve been all eight if Philly would’ve taken the FG at the nine yard line instead of going for it on 4^th and four.

Bet: Atlanta Falcons No (-350), Kansas City Chiefs Yes (+190)

Best Bets For Sunday Night Football

The best bets for Sunday Night Football are as follows:

• Kansas City Chiefs (-185)
• Kirk Cousins Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The smart approach for betting on the Chiefs is to take it week by week. That means, ride KC’s moneyline (when at a decent payout) until they start losing games. Basically, until the Chiefs show that they’re beatable, put small wagers on the defending champs to win each week.

With that said, my favorite bet for this SNF matchup is Kirk Cousins to throw for over 224.5 passing yards.

Cousins is averaging just under 200 passing yards per game, but that’s weighed down by a Week 1 dud against the Steelers. Cousins rebounded to throw for 241 yards against the Eagles on MNF in Week 2.

In his last game against the Chiefs, which came last year, Cousins threw for 284 yards when quarterbacking for the Vikings. He’s put up at least 220 passing ypg in his last three contests versus the Chiefs.

Lastly, Kansas City is 31^st in the NFL when it comes to defending the pass. This defense is giving up 256.5 ypg and allowed both Burrow and Jackson to surpass 250 passing yards each.

This game could require Atlanta to throw the ball a lot to keep pace with the Chiefs on the scoreboard or due to KC shutting down the Falcons rushing attack. Either way, I like Cousins to have a big game.

Sunday Night Football Schedule 

Sunday Night Football Record

The following list is of each team’s all-time record on Sunday Night Football. This also includes postseason games as well: