2024 NFL Thanksgiving Football Odds and Predictions

Since 1920, the NFL has played games on America’s Thanksgiving.  And, for generations, it has become an annual holiday tradition. Some say this tradition was born out of a duel between the Chicago Tigers and Decatur Staleys with the loser having to fold their franchise and leave the league.

As tragic and captivating as this legend is, NFL historians have debunked the tale of two teams playing for a pink slip. The general consensus is that the NFL was really just emulating College Football, who had a great deal of success holding games around the holiday.

Regardless of how it started, over a century later, the NFL has become synonymous with Thanksgiving. In fact, it’s hard to imagine one without the other. This is especially true for fans of the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys who play annual games on the holiday.

The Detroit Lions were the first NFL team to play annually on Thanksgiving as they began this tradition in 1934. Three decades later, in 1966, the Dallas Cowboys would become the second team to join this holiday tradition.

For over 40 years, football fans would fall into food comas to two holiday matchups each year. However, that would change in 2006, when the NFL added a third game to the Turkey Day slate as a primetime matchup. Instead of making a third team play annually like the Lions and Cowboys, this game features rotating teams each year.

In 2024, the NFL Thanksgiving slate features three teams from the NFC North, just one AFC team, and an NFC East clash of underachieving basement dwellers. However, the turkey festivities don’t end with the prime time matchup from Lambeau Field. The holiday weekend also features a second annual Black Friday Game as the NFL continues taking over all of the major holidays during the season.

Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 13 NFL Predictions for the 2024 NFL Thanksgiving Football games.  

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Who Plays Football On Thanksgiving?

Since 1934, the Detroit Lions have played on Thanksgiving. This year, they will host the Chicago Bears in a bitter NFC North rivalry game. It’s a great way to kick off the holiday slate of games by featuring the Super Bowl 59 favorite Lions against the Bears and #1 2024 NFL draft pick – Caleb Williams.

Although the Dallas Cowboys have been a part of the holiday since 1966, it’s safe to say that this year’s game against the New York Giants will be when most of America falls asleep from food comas or boredom. These two teams boast of losing records and have no hope of making the Playoffs.

The third game of the day is the pumpkin pie of the holiday slate as the Green Bay Packers host the Miami Dolphins. Both teams are contending for Wild Card spots in their respective conferences and need a win to keep their Playoff hopes alive.

A little Turkey Day Trivia: the Packers and Bears are tied for the third most Thanksgiving Day appearances at 37 apiece.

Thanksgiving Day Football Schedule

What Channel Is Thanksgiving Football on?

The Thanksgiving football games will air on the following major networks:

• Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions on CBS
• New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys on FOX
• Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers on NBC

Thanksgiving Football Games Odds

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for Thanksgiving and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

The Detroit Lions enter the holiday as the biggest betting favorite. They’re currently favored to win by 10.5 points and have a -550 moneyline. That also means that the Chicago Bears are the biggest underdogs with +400 odds as of this writing.

This NFC North clash boasts of the biggest Total for the day at 49 points. The Dolphins vs. Packers comes in slightly under that mark with an O/U of 47.5 points. The Cowboys vs. Giants have the lowest Total with an O/U of 38.5 points.

Speaking of Dallas vs. New York, the Cowboys are a slightly home favorite with a -190 moneyline and giving up 3.5 points. The Giants at +160 aren’t even the smallest underdog of the day.

That label goes to the Miami Dolphins who are listed at +155 and getting 3 points. The Packers are the smallest favorite of the day at -185 odds.

I expect these numbers to shift as we get closer to the holiday. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins get this spread to under a field goal. Detroit will still be the biggest favorite of the day, but that number might come down a little as well.

Thanksgiving Day Football Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at the three NFL Thanksgiving games and make our NFL picks of the holiday. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Odds

This NFC North battle marks the 189^th time that these two teams have played against each other. Currently, the Chicago Bears own a massive advantage in this series with a record of 105-78-5. This Week 13 contest will be the first of the two annual divisional games in the 2024-25 season. The second matchup will take place in Week 16 at Chicago.

The Bears are 8-4 in the last 12 meetings against the Lions. Detroit is 48-44-1 all-time in home games against Chicago. However, the Lions are just 4-7 at home versus the Bears in their last 11 meetings. Yet, they have won their last two home games in this series.

For the Bears, this will be their 38^th appearance on Thanksgiving and they have a holiday record of 20-15-2. For the Lions, this will be their 85^th Turkey Day game and they have a holiday record of 37-45-2.

This Thanksgiving football game also marks the 19^th time that these two teams have played against each other on the holiday. The Bears hold a 10-8 record over the Lions on Thanksgiving. Their last holiday showdown came in 2021, which Chicago won 16-14.

In fact, the Bears have won three consecutive Thanksgiving games over the Lions. The Lions are just 6-18 on Thanksgiving since 2000, and are 0-6 over their last six Thanksgiving football games.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Betting Trends

Check out the following Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions betting trends:

Bears vs. Lions Betting Trends

• Bears are 6-4 SU in last 10 meetings
• Bears are 8-4 SU in last 12 games
• Bears are 4-2 SU in last six games at Detroit
• Bears are 5-5 ATS in last 10 matchups
• Over is 5-5 in last 10 contests

Chicago Bears Betting Trends

• 0-5 SU in last five games
• 0-4 SU in last four road games
• 0-6 ATS in last six Week 13 games
• 0-3-1 ATS in last four road games
• Under is 4-1 in last five games
• Under is 7-0 in last seven road games

Detroit Lions Betting Trends

• 9-0 SU in last nine games
• 8-1 SU in last nine home games
• 8-1 ATS in last nine games
• 5-0 ATS in last five NFC games
• 15-3 ATS in last 18 NFC North games
• Over is 10-5 in last 15 Thursday games

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Predictions

The Chicago Bears (4-7) enter this matchup having lost five games in a row. Three of those five games were by one score. In fact, those three games in particular all ended via the last play of the game.

Last week, the Bears lost via field goal in overtime against the Vikings. In Week 11, the Bears lost via blocked field goal against the Packers. And five games ago, the Bears lost via Hail Mary pass to the Washington Commanders. In between those three crushing defeats, Chicago laid two eggs and lost by a combined score of 48 to 12.

Making matters worse is the fact that the Bears haven’t won a game on the road this season. They’re currently 0-4. Chicago just played three games at home and suffered defeats in all of them. Their last win came in Week 6, just prior to the Bye, as they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in London.

The Detroit Lions (10-1) are on a nine-game winning streak. Seven of those nine wins were by a touchdown or more. Six of those nine wins were by 10 or more points. Their last two victories were by a combined score of 76 to 12.

This team is an absolute juggernaut, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Do the Bears have any hope of slowing down Detroit and winning the game on Thursday?

Bears vs. Lions In-Game Matchups

The Bears’ offense is a liability in this matchup, or any matchup for that matter. It seems like anytime the offense makes progress; Caleb Williams somehow finds a way to screw things up.

Just this past weekend against the Vikings, the Bears got the ball to start OT. Williams held the ball for far too long, despite the great o-line protection, and took a sack that set them far behind the chains.

Ultimately, Chicago had to punt and the Vikings went down the field to kick a game-winning field goal and win the game. Things like this have happened too much over the season. In fact, it contributed to the offensive coordinator getting fired a few weeks ago.

Yet, the problem is bigger than just an OC. The Chicago head coach needs to be axed and Williams needs to mature more. Neither will happen until the end of the season, so the Bears are in for a tough final six games.

As for this game, I don’t see the Bears’ offense being able to keep pace with the Lions offense that leads the league in scoring and is Top 5 in most major categories like 2^nd in total yards (394.3 ypg), 4^th in rushing (150.8 ypg), and first in TDs scored per game (4.1).

The Bears’ defense allows 130 rushing yards per game and I seem them getting gashed by the combo of Gibbs and former Chicago running back David Montgomery.

Detroit’s success on the ground will open up the flood gates through their play action pass. You can expect a number of pass catchers to contribute to this success as well.

Chicago’s defense will be more of a speedbump than a wall. With the game taking place in-doors, you can expect Detroit to take advantage of the controlled climate, rowdy crowd, and clear superiority of talent on both sides of the ball.

Who Wins: Bears or Lions?

I don’t envision a scenario where the Bears win this game. In fact, I have a hard time thinking they can keep the game under 10 points. With that said, Detroit has played awful on Thanksgiving as they’ve dropped six in a row. I don’t know if they’re eating turkey before the game or not, but the Lions need to focus on football and not all of the fixins.

With that said, the Bears are winless on the road this season and haven’t covered a spread away from home. The Lions are 8-1 at home this year, 5-0 ATS in the last five NFC games, and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 divisional matchups.

That half point (10.5) scares me off the spread as I can see Detroit winning by 10 or by 11. With that said, I definitely like Detroit to win the game, but I’m going to avoid the spread and the Total for this matchup. We don’t know what version of Chicago will show up this week.

Bet: Detroit Lions (-550)

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds

The second Thanksgiving football game will feature two bitter NFC East rivals as the New York Giants host the Dallas Cowboys.

This will be the second and final divisional game between these two teams in the 2024-25 season. Their first matchup took place in Week 4 and it was the Cowboys who won the game by the score of 20 to 15.

For the Giants, this will be their 17^th appearance on Thanksgiving. New York is 7-6-3 on the holiday. Ironically, the Giants didn’t play a Thanksgiving game from 1940 to 1981. However, since then, they have gone 1-4 on Turkey Day including four losses in a row.

For the Cowboys this will be their 57^th Thanksgiving game and they have a record of 33-22-1. They’re 3-2 in their last five Thanksgiving matchups.

These two teams have played against each other 125 times. Their Thanksgiving matchup will be the 126^th game against each other. They last played on Turkey Day in 2022, and the Cowboys won 28-20.

Dallas has won 14 of the last 15 meetings including seven in a row. The Cowboys are 41-21-1 all-time in home games versus the Giants. Dallas has won 10 of their last 11 games at home versus New York, which includes winning seven in a row. The Giants haven’t won in Dallas since 2016 when Eli Manning was still playing.

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

Check out the following New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys betting trends:

Giants vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

• Cowboys are 9-1 SU in last 10 meetings
• Cowboys are 7-0 SU in last seven contests
• Cowboys are 6-4 ATS in last 10 matchups
• Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in last 15 meetings
• Over is 6-4 in last 10 contests

New York Giants Betting Trends

• 0-6 SU in last six games
• 3-10 SU in last 13 road games
• 1-7 SU in last eight NFC games
• 0-6 ATS in last six games
• 2-5 ATS in last seven November games
• Under is 9-3 in last 12 games
• Under is 4-1 in last five NFC East games

Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

• 1-5 SU in last six games
• 0-5 SU in last five home games
• 6-1 SU in last seven NFC East games
• 7-2 SU in last nine Week 13 games
• 1-5 ATS in last six games
• 1-7 ATS in last eight NFC games
• 0-7 ATS in last seven home games
• Over is 7-3 in last 10 November games
• Over is 9-4 in last 13 games

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Predictions

It’s hard to imagine anyone excited for this game. In fact, with a 4:30 pm ET start time, this game makes for the perfect opportunity to take a nap especially on the West Coast.

The New York Giants (2-9) are one of the worst teams in the league. Surprisingly, both of their wins this year have come on the road. Yet, that was before they dumped former franchise QB Daniel Jones who is still looking for a new team.

The Giants have lost six consecutive games with the last three all at home. They haven’t traveled for a game since losing to Pittsburgh a month ago.

Don’t let the miraculous win by the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) fool you. Just because they beat a good Washington Commanders team in Week 12, doesn’t mean that Dallas has turned the corner.

They were very fortunate to take advantage of numerous Washington mistakes and then hold on to win the game. If the Commanders would’ve hit a game tying extra point, this outcome might have been different as they would’ve gone into OT with Washington having all of the momentum.

Nevertheless, Dallas snapped a five game losing streak. Yet, they’re still winless at home on the season with an 0-5 record. It’s rather alarming that the Cowboys have yet to win at home even when they had their full roster.

With that said, the New York Giants have been a “get right” game for the Cowboys over the last handful of seasons. Dallas has won nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings at home including seven in a row. They’ve also won 14 of the last 15 overall matchups versus the Giants, which also includes seven victories in a row. It’s been eight years since the Giants have won in Dallas.

Giants vs. Cowboys In-Game Matchups

Tommy DeVito was handed the keys to the kingdom as he became the starting QB for the Giants. The team responded by going out and getting destroyed by Tampa Bay last weekend. The Bucs won 30 to 7 and smothered the Giants offense all game long.

The Giants offense finished with 245 total yards. DeVito threw for 189 yards, but the team had no rhythm or ability to put up points. In fact, New York didn’t score until 11:28 left in the game. By that point, the Bucs were already up 30 to zero and took their foot off the gas pedal.

This week, I don’t expect the Giants to be as futile considering the Dallas Cowboys have a terrible defense that gives up 29 ppg, which is second worst in the league. They also give up the third most TDs per game at 3.0 and they are 31^st against the run as they allow 150.5 rushing yards per game.

Considering that New York is pathetic in throwing the ball, a commitment to the run is expected as they do average over 115 rushing yards per game. However, the Giants will need to find success in throwing the ball if they want any shot at winning this game.

Don’t look now, but Cooper Rush is making the haters look silly. Rush threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns at Washington last weekend. He also threw for 354 yards against Houston two weeks ago. The problem was that Dallas was already getting blown out.

Yet, the Giants are strong against the pass as they allow only 194.2 yards per game. And, New York is first in sacking opposing QBs.

The game will come down to Cooper Rush’s success. If Dallas can protect him then Rush should be able to throw the ball. You can’t rely on the 2^nd worst rushing offense in the league as Dallas apparently doesn’t have a capable running back despite going up against the 30^th run defense in New York.

It all comes down to Rush’s ability to read the defense, avoid sacks and don’t commit any turnovers.

Who Wins: Giants or Cowboys?

Make no mistake about it, both of these teams are terrible and I expect both franchises to fire their head coaches at the end of the season.

With that said, it’s hard to take the Giants even though Dallas has yet to win at home this season. New York is in disarray and are unable to beat the Cowboys. It’s been eight years since they last won in Dallas and that was due to Eli Manning.

The Cowboys seem to flourish when New York is on the schedule and I see no reason to think it will change this week. Dallas has won 14 of the last 15 head-to-head meetings and 10 of their last 11 home games versus the Giants.

Even with Cooper Rush at QB and no running game, I still see Dallas finding a way to win this game. The offense will score on this Giants team and the Cowboys’ defense should make enough plays to win this matchup. I think Dallas either pulls away late or they hold on to win by at least four points. The Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games versus the Giants.

Bet: Dallas Cowboys (-190), Cowboys -3.5 (-110)

Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

The third and final game on Thanksgiving, is a matchup between two Playoff teams from last year who are fighting to make the postseason this year as well.

The Green Bay Packers have been victorious in five of the last six matchups against the Miami Dolphins. However, Miami holds the advantage with a 10-6 series record. The Dolphins also hold the advantage at Lambeau Field with a 4-3 record, but the Packers have won three of their last four home games versus Miami.

For the Dolphins, this will be their 8^th appearance on Thanksgiving. Currently, Miami is 5-2 on the holiday but haven’t played on Turkey Day since 2011. That year, they lost to the Cowboys.

For Green Bay, this will be their 38^th appearance on Thanksgiving. They enter this week’s holiday matchup with a losing record of 15-20-2. They last played on Turkey Day in 2023, where they beat Detroit 29 to 22. Ironically, the Packers are 13-8-1 against Detroit on Thanksgiving but just 2-12-1 against any other team.

Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Trends

Check out the following Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers betting trends:

Dolphins vs. Packers Betting Trends

• Packers are 6-2 SU in last eight meetings
• Packers are 5-1 SU in last six games
• Packers are 5-3 ATS in last eight matchups
• Packers are 5-1 ATS in last six meetings
• Under is 5-3 in last eight contests

Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

• 9-2 SU in last 11 Week 13 games
• 5-0 ATS in last five November games
• 4-1 ATS in last five games
• 1-6 ATS in last seven NFC North games
• Under is 5-1 in last six road games
• Over is 4-1 in last five games

Green Bay Packers Betting Trends

• 6-1 SU in last seven games
• 8-3 SU in last 11 home games
• 6-0 SU in last six AFC games
• 1-4 ATS in last five games
• 8-1 ATS in last nine Week 13 games
• 2-4 ATS in last six Thursday home games
• Under is 8-2 in last 10 AFC East games

Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions

Without a doubt, this is the best game of the day. Currently, the Miami Dolphins (5-6) sit two games behind the Denver Broncos for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. They’re also a half game up on the Colts and a full game ahead of the Bengals.

Miami has won three games in a row and all of them by eight or more points. This includes the surprising win at LA a few weeks ago. Miami plowed through the Raiders and Patriots over the last two weeks by the combined score of 68 to 34.

Over the last five weeks, the Dolphins have gone 3-2. Yet, those two losses were on final plays as they lost by a total of four points in games versus the Cardinals and Bills.

Despite sitting 8-3 on the season, the Green Bay Packers can’t let up or take a moment to catch their breath as they have multiple teams chasing them for the final NFC Wild Card spot.

Currently, the Packers are 1 ½ games up on the Commanders and two games ahead of the Cardinals. Yet, they find themselves a game back of the Vikings for second in the NFC North and two games back of the Lions of the division lead. Additionally, the Packers lost to both teams already.

So, they need to keep winning in order to secure the final Wild Card spot as it appears the NFC North will send three teams to the Playoffs.

The Packers have won four of their last five games and are coming off a four-touchdown win over the wounded San Francisco 49ers.

Keep an eye on the weather as we all know that Miami struggles in the cold.

Dolphins vs. Packers In-Game Matchups

Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury, the Dolphins have averaged 29 ppg. The offense has found a rhythm and are showing their potential despite some injuries to key players like WR Hill.

Defensively, the Dolphins have stepped up their efforts and have allowed just 16.3 ppg over the last three weeks.

Both teams have playmakers on both sides of the ball. So, there’s no clear-cut advantage in level of talent. With that said, I think this game will come down to whichever team can run the ball effectively.

On paper, that would favor the Packers as they average 151.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks third in the NFL. However, the Dolphins are 9^th against the run as they allow just 106.9 yards per game.

On the flip side, the Dolphins average 116.8 rushing yards per game and the Packers allow just 112.7 yards per game.

For Miami to have success on the ground, they will need to run from three wide receiver sets to keep the Packers from stacking the box. Green Bay could do the same, but they’re more versatile in running the ball from many formations.

If the Dolphins can turn this into a passing contest, I like their chances better than Green Bay as Hill and Waddle are elite receivers; although the Packers have talented wideouts as well.

Who Wins: Dolphins or Packers?

I think this should end up as a one-score game. More than likely, it will come down to a field goal to win the matchup. With that said, I do like Green Bay to win at home in a cold-weather game and a rowdy but stuffed fan base.

I do think the Dolphins will keep the game close as they’re desperate to stay in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. A loss would set them back further and make things far more difficult.

I don’t trust Tua in a cold-weather game. I also don’t trust Miami to completely shut down the run as Josh Jacobs could end up having a solid outing versus the Dolphins.

The Packers are 6-0 in their last six AFC matchups and 8-3 in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, while the Packers are 1-4 ATS in that same span.

Bet: Green Bay Packers (-185), Miami Dolphins +3 (-110)

Thanksgiving Football Best Bets

The best bets for NFL Thanksgiving Day football are as follows:

• Detroit Lions (-550)
• Dallas Cowboys (-190)
• Green Bay Packers (-185)

Whether it’s on paper or on the field, the Detroit Lions are a far better team than the Chicago Bears. It will take a near-perfect game for the Bears to win on Thanksgiving. And, I don’t see that happening at all. They will be lucky to keep the loss within single digits.

If there’s one team that wishes it could end the season right now, it’s the New York Giants. This franchise is worse than its roommate the New York Jets and that team has already fired a head coach, General Manager and put most of the staff on notice.

The Giants will be lucky to win another game. Dallas isn’t a good team at all. But they’re better than New York and they seemingly beat the Giants every time they play. Dallas will win for the 15^th time in the last 16 games versus their divisional rival.

Lastly, I see the Packers winning a close battle against the Dolphins at Lambeau Field. Tua does not play well in the cold and this game will take place at night, below-freezing temperatures, and in front of a raucous crowd. Green Bay has enough fire power to hang with Miami on its best day. And, it has enough defense to hold on for the win.

Thanksgiving Day Records

The following is a list of each NFL team’s record in Thanksgiving football games. These records include a franchise’s previous incarnations.