Week 3 Thursday Night Football Odds and Picks: Patriots vs. Jets

On Thursday, September 19, Week 3 of the NFL regular seasons kicks off with a second straight AFC East clash as the New York Jets host the New England Patriots.

In Week 2, the Miami Dolphins fell at home to the Buffalo Bills. Will the Jets succumb to the same fate as the Dolphins or will they be able to defeat their bitter divisional rival?

Both the Patriots and Jets come into this TNF game with identical 1-1 records. However, they took very different paths getting there. Yet, the Patriots are an OT field goal away from being 2-0 on the season.

Each team is looking up at the Bills sitting on top of the division. The winner will stay a game back, while the loser falls further behind in a heated divisional race.

Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 3 NFL Predictions for the New England Patriots vs. New York Jets.

What Channel Is Thursday Night Football On?

• Thursday Night Football Channel: Amazon Prime Video
• Thursday Night Football Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Thursday Night Football Announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit 

Thursday Night Football Betting 

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for TNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

By late-August, the Jets were a 7-point favorite with a -320 moneyline. The Patriots were a +250 underdog. This week, the Jets saw their odds dip as low as -285 before rising back to -300 as of this writing. New England went has low as +240 before climbing back up to +255 and settling between that mark and +245. The spread has only dropped to under a touchdown at 6.5 points.

The Total opened at 42 points, dipped to 39 points, and kept dropping to 37.5 total points before settling at an Over/Under of 38 points.

Thursday Night Football Odds

The following Thursday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

These two divisional rivals have played against each other 130 times including three postseason games. The New England Patriots hold a sizable lead in this rivalry with a 74-55-1 series record. Furthermore, the Patriots had defeated the New York Jets 15 straight times before the Jets were able to snap that skid in January.

The Patriots have won eight consecutive games at New York including a 15-10 victory in September 2023, after Aaron Rodgers was lost for the season.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

Check out the following New England Patriots vs. New York Jets betting trends:

Patriots vs. Jets Betting Trends

• New England is 15-1 SU in last 16 meetings
• Patriots are 7-3 ATS in last 10 matchups
• New England is 8-0 SU in last 10 road games at NY
• The Under is 6-4 in last 10 contests

New England Patriots Betting Trends

• 5-15 SU in last 20 games
• 4-1 ATS in last five road games
• 2-5 SU in last seven AFC East games
• Over is 5-2 in last seven games
• Over is 4-2 in last six AFC games

New York Jets Betting Trends

• 4-8 SU in last 12 games
• 5-12 SU in last 17 AFC games
• 3-9 ATS in last 12 games
• 1-4 ATS in last five home games
• 4-16 ATS in last 20 September games
• Under is 10-1 in last 11 AFC East games
• Under is 8-1 in last nine Week 3 games
  

Thursday Night Football Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our NFL Thursday Night Football predictions. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense

Although they’re just 1-1, the Patriots have been one of the surprise teams in the AFC. This squad was expected to be one of the worst teams in the league but they’ve played solid football over the first two weeks of the season.

New England was very close to going 2-0 on the season but lost in OT to the Seattle Seahawks last weekend. With that said, this offense is a run-heavy unit that’s ranked 4^th in the league at 177.5 rushing yards per game.

Rhamonde Stevenson already has 201 rushing yards this year with two touchdowns on 46 carries. Against the Seahawks, even backup running back Antonio Gibson had a big rushing game with 96 yards on 11 carries.

The Jets have shown an inability to stop the run over the first two weeks. New York is 25^th against the run after allowed 155 rushing yards per game. The Jets allowed Tennessee to rush for 130 yards last weekend, and that was after the 49ers gashed them on the ground for 180 yards in Week 1.

Unfortunately, that also means that the Patriots have one of the worst passing offenses in the league behind Jacoby Brissett.

Currently, New England is ranked 29^th as they average 122.5 passing yards per game. The Jets are 17^th against the pass after allowed 195.5 ypg over the first two weeks. However, that stat is misleading considering they’ve allowed opposing offenses to run all over them.

For the Patriots to have any success, they will need to win in the trenches and get ahead of the sticks on the early downs with their running game.

Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense

After an embarrassing performance on Monday Night Football against the 49ers, where the Jets only had 266 total yards, they almost reached that same mark against the Titans in Week 2. New York finished with 277 total yards. However, the outcome was far different as they were able to hang on to beat the Titans, whereas they were blown out by the 49ers in Week 1.

With that said, this New York offense has been sluggish and they’re definitely not living up to preseason expectations.

New York’s passing game is 21^st at 181 ypg and their rushing attack is even worst at 84.5 ypg, which is 26^th in the league. Surprisingly, they’re 14^th at 21.5 points per game.

Breece Hall was supposed to tear up opposing defenses this season, but he’s only averaging 58 rushing yards and 15 carries per game. He was a non-factor against the 49ers and stuffed by the Titans. In fact, backup running back Braelon Allen outshined Hall with a two-touchdown performance against Tennessee.

Currently, the Patriots have the #2 run defense in the league. As they allow only 58 yards per game. New England stifled both the Bengals and Seahawks on the ground. Yet, they’re giving up 233 passing yards per game and just let Geno Smith torch them for 327 yards and one TD. Smith completed 33 passes on 44 attempts. New England is 27^th against the pass.

For the Jets to have a shot at winning, they will need to eclipse their 181 passing yards per game. That might be easier said than done considering how poorly this offense has looked.

Who Wins TNF: Patriots or Jets?

This AFC East clash is going to be an ugly game where the Patriots try to control the clock and play smashmouth football. Their top-notch running attack could find success against an inferior Jets run defense.

On the flip side, if the Jets can’t get a running game going this week, then New England will find a way to limit the passing attack.

With that in mind, I think this game is going to be a one-score contest. I also see the Patriots covering on the road as their brand of football is going to give the Jets problems. If you can get the spread at seven points or more, then you are sitting pretty for this matchup.

New York should win this game in the end due to having the better quarterback in Rodgers, but it isn’t going to be convincing.

Bets: New York Jets (-300), New England Patriots +6.5 (-110

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Check out our picks for the best Patriots vs. Jets Game and Player Prop bets:

Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown (+130)

If you have watched any of the Patriots games this season, you would have noticed that Stevenson is the primary focus of their offense. This is largely due to a lack of high-quality quarterback play with Brissett as the quarterback. It’s also because they don’t really have any elite receivers either.

In Week 1, Stevenson scored a rushing touchdown against the Bengals. In Week 2, he scored at rushing touchdown versus the Seahawks.

The Jets gave up two rushing touchdowns in Week 1 to the 49ers including one by Deebo Samuel running the ball. In Week 2, they gave up a rushing touchdown to WR Calvin Ridley who did his best Deebo impression.

Thursday’s game will be a physical, smashmouth battle. That means plenty of running from Stevenson who should score at least one TD.

Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime Touchdown (+130)

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards

• Over 66.5 yards (-110)
• Under 66.5 yards (-110)

Let’s piggyback on the previous Stevenson prop bet by taking the Patriots running back to finish with at least 67 rushing yards on TNF.

Stevenson has 201 rushing yards on the season, which is an average of 100.5 ypg. He put up 120 yards in Week 1 on the road against the Bengals and 81 yards at home versus Seattle.

The Jets are being gashed on the ground as mentioned above.

New York can’t stop the run as they allow 155 ypg, which is 25^th in the league. The 49ers finished with 180 rushing yards in Week 1 with running backs accounting for 170 of those yards. In Week 2, the Titans finished with 130 yards. Tennessee running backs finished with 82 yards against the Jets.

New England’s offensive line is physical and likes to establish the run early and often. I expect Stevenson to easily surpass the Over.

Bet: Over 66.5 yards (-110)

Breece Hall Rushing Yards

• Over 62.5 yards (-110)
• Under 62.5 yards (-110)

I have not been impressed with Breece Hall this season after the first two weeks. And, I don’t see that changing this week either. In two games, Hall is averaging 58 rushing yards per game.

The 49ers held Hall to 54 rushing yards on 16 carries in Week 1. Last weekend, the Titans held Hall to 62 rushing yards on 14 carries.

The Patriots have allowed just 58 rushing yards per game to opponents. Last Sunday, New England gave up 46 total rushing yards with 38 of those yards coming from the running backs. Seattle starting running back Zach Charbonet had just 38 yards in a game that went to OT.

In Week 1, the Patriots gave up 70 rushing yards with 55 of those yards coming from the running backs. Starter Zack Moss finished with just 44 rushing yards.

With the way the Jets have looked on the ground, and teams focusing on stopping Hall, I’m taking the Under for this prop bet.

Bet: Under 62.5 yards (-110)

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards

• Over 216.5 yards (-110)
• Under 216.5 yards (-110)

Because the Patriots are so stout against the run, they’ve become inept against the pass after the first two weeks of the season. It’s not like the Jets passing attack has been lighting up the scoreboards either. With that said, I do believe New York’s key to success on offense will be through the air.

The Patriots gave up 164 passing yards to Joe Burrow in Week 1. However, that was more of an anomaly as the Bengals were awful that week. In Week 2, Seattle’s Geno Smith torched New England’s secondary for 327 passing yards.

After two weeks, Aaron Rodgers has yet to even come close to 200 yards passing. He has just 343 yards on the season. The 49ers held him to 167 yards in Week 1 and the Titans only allowed 176 passing yards in Week 2.

With that said, I expect Rodgers to have his first decent passing game of the season. He should hit the Over in this one as the Patriots allow 233 passing yards per game.  The Jets will be at home on a short week and need to put this offense in another gear. That starts with Rodgers and the passing game.

Bet: Over 216.5 yards (-110)

Aaron Rodgers Passing Attempts

• Over 30.5 attempts (-110)
• Under 30.5 attempts (-110)

For Rodgers to hit the Over in the previous prop bet, he’s going to have to throw the ball a lot. That means over 30.5 attempts on TNF. Currently, Rodgers is average 25.5 attempts per game. Geno Smith threw 44 attempts last weekend due to the success Seattle was having.

Even Cincy’s dreadful Week 1 performance, which was far below their normal output, still saw Burrow throw the ball 29 times.

With New England’s secondary being their weak link, and the Jets passing game being their strength, look for Rodgers to throw the ball between 35 and 40 times in order to put the Jets in a position to win the game.

Bet: Over 30.5 attempts (-110)

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards

• Over 31.5 yards (-110)
• Under 31.5 yards (-110)

These next two prop bets will focus on Hunter Henry, who has clearly become Brissett’s top target in the passing game.

In Week 1, Henry had just 18 yards on two receptions and three targets. That all changed significantly for Week 2 against Seattle, when Brissett and the Patriots remembered they had a talented tight end.

Last weekend, Henry finished with 109 yards on eight receptions in 12 targets. I expect more of the same for Henry and this New England passing game on Thursday.

In Week 2, the Jets gave up 27 yards on five receptions to the Tennessee tight ends. Keep in mind, Tennessee has better receivers with Hopkins and Ridley than the Patriots do.

In Week 1, San Francisco TE George Kittle finished with 40 yards on four receptions. Once again, the 49ers have far better receivers than the Patriots do. Yet, their TE still saw plenty of action to encourage us to take the Over for this prop bet.

Bet: Over 31.5 yards (-110)

Hunter Henry Receptions

• Over 3.5 rec (-110)
• Under 3.5 rec (-110)

As I just laid out in the previous prop bet, Henry is average five receptions per game with eight coming in Week 2. However, the Jets are giving up 4.5 receptions to tight ends over the first two weeks with Kittle snagging four in Week 1 and Tennessee’s two tight ends combining for five in Week 2.

Henry is the primary pass catcher for the Patriots and a solid safety valve for Brissett. I expect the tight end to hit his average of five receptions this week.

Bet: Over 3.5 receptions (-110)

New England Patriots Rushing Attempts

• Over 26.5 attempts (-110)
• Under 26.5 attempts (-110)

This team prop bet is my favorite wager of the week for the Jets vs. Patriots TNF matchup.

As we’ve already established, New York has been poor in stopping the run. In addition to the yardage, they allow (155 ypg), the Jets are also seeing opposing offenses average 33 rushing attempts per game.

The 49ers ran the ball 38 times as a team in Week 1. The Titans followed that up with 28 team rushes in week two. That’s the 7^th most rushing attempts per game from opposing teams.

The Patriots are 3^rd in the NFL with 37.5 rushing attempts per game. In Week 1, they ran the ball 39 times against the Bengals with 25 carries coming from Stevenson. In Week 2, they ran the ball 36 times against Seattle with 21 carries via Stevenson.

With the Patriots running the ball 37.5 times per game, and the Jets allowing 33 attempts per game due to an inept run defense, this is a recipe for Over 26.5 rushing attempts.

Bet: Over 26.5 attempts (-110)

Best Bets For Thursday Night Football

• Patriots +6.5 (-110)
• Stevenson Over 66.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Patriots Over 26.5 rushing attempts (-110)

This week’s best bets for Thursday Night Football are heavy on the Patriots. The Jets are averaging 21.5 ppg and allowing 24.5 ppg. The Patriots are averaging 18 ppg and allowing 16.5 ppg.

The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Jets and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games which includes the Week 1 victory in Cincinnati. I believe the Patriots will cover the near-touchdown spread. And, if you can get it for 7 points or higher, jump on it like a dog pile.

In two games, Stevenson has 23 rushing attempts for 100.5 yards per game. The Jets are giving up 155 rushing yards per game. Even when Stevenson wasn’t running with great efficiency in Week 2, he still finished with 81 rushing yards on 21 attempts. I expect similar numbers this week as the Jets try to shut him down.

Speaking of rushing attempts, the Patriots going over 26.5 rushing attempts is my favorite bet for this game. They’re currently running the ball 37.5 times per game. This is due to their strength being the run game and that they don’t have a great passing attack.

The Jets are allowing 33 rushing attempts per game for 155 rushing yards. They will load up the box to try to stop Stevenson but I also expect Brissett to run at least three or four times, along with Gibson running six to eight times.

The Patriots’ only chance of winning on Thursday is to run the ball, control the clock, and wear down this Jets defense by the fourth quarter.

Thursday Night Football Schedule

Check out the complete Thursday Night Football schedule along with our predictions for each week: