Week 16 Thursday Night Football Odds: Broncos vs. Chargers

The Week 16 Thursday Night Football matchup is not only a bitter AFC West rivalry game, but it also has Playoff implications on the line as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Denver Broncos.

This TNF contest marks the 131^st meeting between the two divisional rivals and the winner will almost certainly lock in a Wild Card spot. The loser could drop one game closer to the teams chasing the third and final Playoff seed.

The two franchises are in this position because the Denver Broncos continue to win, while the Los Angeles Chargers continue to fall down the standings.

The Broncos come into this game having won four in a row. However, their Week 15 victory over the Indianapolis Colts aided in Denver leapfrogging Los Angeles in the standings. Additionally, it knocked the Colts two games back of the final Playoff spot. Currently, Denver sits 6^th in the AFC.

The Chargers have dropped three of their last four games, including two in a row. A close loss to the Chiefs in Week 14 was understandable due to key injuries. However, their Week 15 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is very concerning.

The Chargers were blown out at home by the score of 40 to 17. It was their worst performance of the season and not what a team should be doing as they try to make a Playoff push.

Can the Chargers sweep the Broncos this season and move back up in the standings or will Denver add to LA’s misery and crush their postseason aspirations?

Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 16 NFL Predictions for the Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers.

What Channel Is Thursday Night Football On?

• Thursday Night Football Channel: Amazon Prime Video
• Thursday Night Football Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Thursday Night Football Announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit 

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Thursday Night Football Betting 

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for TNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

The Los Angeles Chargers opened as a -150 favorite and are currently in a range of -145 to -160. The Denver Broncos opened as a +130 and currently sit at +130 to +140.

Ironically, in their Week 6 matchup, the odds were very similar across the board. Los Angeles was listed at -160 and Denver was +135 moneyline.

The spread opened with the Chargers favored by three points. Most sportsbooks have this line firmly set at three points as I have yet to see +/- 3.5 points with any reputable sportsbook. The Chargers were also favored by three points in the first matchup of these two teams.

The Total opened at 43.5 points and has slowly come down to the current O/U of 42 points. In their first matchup of the season, the Over/Under was listed at 36 points.

On the season, if you include Thanksgiving, we are 13-4 SU in Thursday games. Last week’s NFC West battle in the Bay Area improved our winning streak to five victories in a row and eight of our last nine Thursday picks. Yes, you guessed it, that Cleveland Browns upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers a few weeks ago was our lone loss in the last few months.

We knew it would be a close game with Rams and 49ers last week, just like their first matchup in September. With that said, we were high on the Rams last week by taking Los Angeles to pull off the mild upset and to cover the spread outright:

“With the way that these two teams have played over the last month, it’s hard to think that LA will drop the ball versus the 49ers this week. I’m taking the Rams to not only cover the spread, but to win the game outright as well.”

The Rams ended up winning in a field goal battle by the score of 12 to 6. Because this was a divisional contest, we skipped the Total for the game as the 49ers have been too inconsistent to feel comfortable about how many points they will score or allow.

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Thursday Night Football Odds

The following Thursday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers have played against each other 130 times. Despite this many games against each other, they’ve only faced off just one time in the Playoffs. The Broncos hold a sizable lead in this rivalry with a 73-56-1 record.

The Broncos have won three of the last four games over the Chargers. However, Los Angeles did claim the victory in Week 6 by the score of 23-16. The Chargers went into Denver to snap the Broncos’ three game winning streak.

Los Angeles is 37-27 in home games versus Denver. Since moving to Los Angeles, in 2017, the Chargers are only 4-3 at home versus the Broncos. In fact, Denver scored a 24-7 victory at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles last season.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

Check out the following Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers betting trends:

Check out the following Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers betting trends:

Broncos vs. Chargers Betting Trends

• Denver is 6-4 SU in last 10 meetings
• Denver is 13-7 SU in last 20 matchups
• Denver is 6-4 ATS in last 10 contests
• Over/Under is 5-5 in last 10 games
• Under is 10-1 in last 11 games at LA

Denver Broncos Betting Trends

• 4-1 SU in last five games
• 4-2 SU in last six December games
• 5-0 ATS in last five games
• 6-1 ATS in last seven road games
• 4-1 ATS in last five AFC games
• Over is 4-1 in last five AFC West games

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends

• 1-6 SU in last seven December games
• 2-7 SU in last nine AFC West games
• 6-2 ATS in last eight games
• 5-1 ATS in last six AFC games
• 8-4 ATS in last 12 Week 16 games
• Over is 4-1 in last five home games
• Under is 11-5 in last 16 games

Thursday Night Football Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our Thursday Night Football NFL picks. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Broncos Offense vs. Chargers Defense

The first game between these two teams was a slug fest. Both the Broncos and Chargers feature strong defenses with middle of the pack offenses that rank in the bottom half of the league for most major categories.

In fact, Denver and LA are tied for the fewest points allowed at 17.6 ppg. They’re also in the top two for fewest TDs allowed in the red zone and fewest overall TDs per game. Ultimately, these AFC West rivals try to win with defense and running the ball.

Unfortunately, neither offense is really good enough to win games consistently. The defense is relied upon too much to cover up mistakes and to hold the opposition to fewer points.

Denver’s offense has improved since their first meeting versus the Chargers. They’re now 10^th in scoring at 24 ppg and 10^th in TDs per game (2.6). However, they rank 22^nd in total yards (311.1 ypg), 20^th in rushing (108.4 ypg) and 23^rd in passing (202.7 ypg).

Where the Chargers have been exploited on defense is in the run game as they allow 125.1 ypg. The Chargers are strong against the pass as they allow just 211.6 ypg (10^th) and are 9^th in sack rate.

The Broncos have been good at protecting Bo Nix, as they give up the third lowest sack rate. Unfortunately, the rookie QB is very erratic at times. On the season he has 11 INTs to 20 pass TDs. This means that the Chargers could find a few opportunities to pick off the young quarterback just like they did in the first matchup.

Denver tallied 110 yards in their first meeting with the Chargers, but 61 of those yards was by Nix himself. I don’t see either stat being reached this week. Yet, I do think Nix might be able to surpass 200 yards in the air.

I think this in-game matchup slightly leans towards the LA defense who was absolutely embarrassed last weekend and looking to rebound on Sunday.

Chargers Offense vs. Broncos Defense

Ever since JK Dobbins went out with a knee injury, this Chargers’ running game has been an embarrassment. Over the last three weeks backup RB Gus Edwards has finished with 32, 36 and 23-yard performances. In the first meeting, Dobbins almost finished with 100 rushing yards himself.

Dobbins is at least one more week away from returning to practice, which doesn’t guarantee an in-game return until most likely Week 18.

Without Dobbins, this Chargers offense has been atrocious. They’ve lost two of the three games that he’s missed and are in danger of losing a third in a row this week.

In the first matchup, Justin Herbert finished with 237 passing yards, but a big reason for this was the play-action passing game. That won’t happen on Thursday as the Chargers aren’t a threat to run the ball with much success.

Herbert has tallied 147, 213, and 195 passing yards in the three games without Dobbins (the last three overall). That’s not going to cut it against Denver. The Broncos have the third highest sack rate at 8.78% and the Chargers allow 6^th highest rate of sacks at 9.23%.

Denver’s defense has the advantage in this matchup.

Who Wins TNF: Broncos or Chargers?

The Chargers are an awful offense without JK Dobbins. They have no running game, a poor pass blocking offensive line, and inadequate receiving weapons outside of McConkey.

The Broncos don’t have to stack the box to stop an inept rushing attack. So, they can take away the pass and lock down McConkey. I wouldn’t be surprised if Denver was able to create plenty of pressure without blitzing. That means when they do blitz, it should be highly successful.

Both defenses will play well, but only one will help their team win and that’s the Broncos. I give Denver the edge in this game.

The Broncos are 6-2 SU in their last eight games, 4-2 SU in their last six December games, and have won four in a row. The Chargers are 2-7 SU in their last nine divisional games and 1-6 SU in their last seven December contests.

I love the fact that Denver is getting three points as they should easily cover this spread. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall games, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road, and 4-1 ATS in their last five AFC games. The Chargers are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games versus Denver.

The first matchup saw a combined score of 39 total points, which surpassed the O/U of 36 points. However, I don’t see this game surpassing 42 points. The Chargers have scored 17 points in each of their last three games. The Broncos only average 24 ppg on the season. I would avoid the Total for this game, but would lean towards the Under if I were betting on it.

Bet: Denver Broncos (+135), Broncos +3 (-110)

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Check out our picks for the Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Game and Player Prop bets:

Bo Nix Passing Yards

• Over 224.5 yards (-110)
• Under 224.5 yards (-110)

I see Bo Nix being one of the biggest factors in this AFC West clash. In fact, with the limitations that the Chargers are facing on offense, I think Nix could be the one player to have the biggest impact on the outcome of this game.

On the season, Nix has totaled 2,972 passing yards in 14 games. That’s an average of 212.3 yards per game. However, he has really come on strong the second half of the season. In his last seven games, Nix has thrown for 223 yards or more in five of them.

In the first meeting versus the Chargers, Nix finished with 216 yards. Since Denver won’t be able to run the ball effectively against Los Angeles, I expect Nix to throw the ball more and surpass the 224.5 yard mark.

Bet: Over 224.5 yards (-110)

Bo Nix Passing Attempts

• Over 33.5 attempts (-110)
• Under 33.5 attempts (-110)

On the season, Nix has thrown the ball 467 times. That’s an average of 33.3 attempts per game, which is right on the cusp of this Over/Under.

In his last seven games, Nix has thrown the ball for 33 or more times in six of them. However, he’s only gone over 34 attempts in two of those games over that span and five contests on the season.

This is going to be close, but I like for Nix to finish with 33 or less attempts. He tallied just 33 in the first matchup and in four of the last six games.

Bet: Under 33.5 attempts (-110)

Bo Nix Completions

• Over 20.5 completions (-110)
• Under 20.5 completions (-110)

Nix has totaled 297 completions over his 14 starts. That’s a break down of 21.1 completions per game. Nix finished with 19 completions in the first game against the Chargers. He’s only thrown for 21 or more completions in five of his 14 games this year.

Take the Under for this prop bet as well. Nix has thrown for 20 or less completions in two straight games with this one being a third in a row.

Bet: Under 20.5 completions (-110)

Justin Herbert Passing Yards

• Over 224.5 yards (-110)
• Under 224.5 yards (-110)

In 14 starts, Justin Herbert has thrown for 2,959 yards. That’s an average of 211.4 yards per game. IN the first meeting versus the Broncos, Herbert tossed 21 completions for 237 yards. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening this week.

Without Dobbins, Herbert has thrown for 213 yards or less in three consecutive games. In fact, he failed to reach 200 yards in two of those three contests. Furthermore, Herbert has thrown for under 224 yards in nine of his 14 games, including four in a row and five of the last six. He also did this in the first four games of the season as well.

Denver allows 216.7 passing yards per game, which is 16^th in the league, while the Chargers average 196.4 yards per game (25^th). Take the under!

Bet: Under 224.5 yards (-110)

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards

• Over 37.5 yards (-110)
• Under 37.5 yards (-110)

There was a time when Gus Edwards was an effective running back. Unfortunately, that time isn’t now and the Chargers are suffering because of it.

In 10 games played, Edwards has 297 rushing yards which is a 29.7 ypg average. Even worse, Edwards has started the last three games with Dobbins out, and only finished with 91 rushing yards total. That’s a 30.3 ypg average.

Denver allows just 98.6 rushing yards per game, which is the fifth best mark in the league. When you combine this factor with Edwards’ inability to run the ball, this is an easy prop bet to wager on. Take the Under!

Bet: Under 37.5 yards (-110)

Best Bets For Thursday Night Football

The Best Bets for Thursday Night Football are as follows:

• Denver Broncos +3 (-110)
• Justin Herbert under 224.5 passing yards (-110)
• Gus Edwards under 37.5 rushing yards (-110)

I really like the Broncos’ to cover the three-point spread in this Thursday Night Football game. Denver has gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games. Additionally, the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road contests and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.

Yet, not only do I think they can cover the spread, I also think they can win the game outright. Denver is 6-2 SU in their last eight overall contests and they are riding a four-game winning streak.

The Chargers have gone 1-6 SU in their last seven December games. They’ve also been almost equally as bad in divisional showdowns as they’ve gone 2-7 SU in their last nine AFC West games. These are ingredients for a Denver win.

With no running game since JK Dobbins went out about a month ago, this LA offense has been atrocious. It has significantly impacted Justin Herbert’s success as well. That’s why I’m betting on Herbert to throw for under 224.5 passing yards.

On the season, Herbert is average just 211.4 ypg. Additionally, he’s only gone over 224 yards in just five of the 14 games that he’s played this season. In fact, he’s come under that mark in four of his last six matchups including three in a row.

Denver only gives up 216.7 passing yards per game (16^th) and I see the Broncos defense holding Herbert down this week due to not having to worry about at Chargers’ running threat.

Speaking of the Chargers rushing attack, Gus Edwards is leading the charge with Dobbins out. And, he’s been atrocious. Edwards is only average 29.7 yards per game this season. As the starter with Dobbins out, Edwards is averaging just 30.3 ypg.

Denver will shut down the run with a light box, get pressure on Herbert as the Chargers have subpar pass blocking offensive line, and lead the Broncos team to a fifth consecutive win on the season.

Thursday Night Football Schedule

Check out the complete Thursday Night Football schedule along with our predictions for each week: