Week 11 Thursday Night Football Odds: Commanders vs. Eagles

Week 11 of the 2024-25 NFL season kicks off with a battle for first place in the NFC East division on the line as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders.

If this week’s game is anything like the Week 10 TNF matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, then football fans and bettors are in for a thrilling contest.

Currently, the Eagles sit on top of the NFC East with a half game lead. The surprising thing about this divisional race is that the Commanders are the team chasing after Philly and not the preseason favorites – Dallas Cowboys.

While the Cowboys and New York Giants are slumping towards Top 10 draft picks in the 2025 NFL Draft, the Commanders and Eagles are fighting for the divisional crown and a Playoff spot.

This marks the first time these two teams have played against each other in the 2024-25 regular season. It’s also the 179^th time these rivals have played against each other. It’s a rivalry that spans all the way back to 1934.

Philly is coming off an impressive victory over Dallas as they crushed the Cowboys and pretty much ended their season. Washington is coming off a heartbreaking 28-27 loss to the Steelers in what was a fantastic Week 10 matchup.

Will the Eagles continue to soar and extend their winning streak to six games in a row or will the Commanders derail the birds and get back into first place in the NFC East?

Let’s dive deeper into the latest NFL odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Week 11 NFL Predictions for the Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles.

What Channel Is Thursday Night Football On?

• Thursday Night Football Channel: Amazon Prime Video
• Thursday Night Football Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
• Thursday Night Football Announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit 

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Thursday Night Football Betting 

Keep an eye on the latest NFL odds for TNF and monitor how the lines change throughout the week.

The Philadelphia Eagles opened -340 betting favorites when the lines were first released. In the preseason, those odds went as high as -345, while the Commanders went from +270 to +275 in August’s meaningless football games.

However, things changed for both franchises over the first two months of the season as it was Washington that led the division while the Eagles were chasing after them. The odds saw Philly fall as low as -165 and Washington as high as +140.

Currently, the Eagles are a -165 to -185 betting favorite just a few days out from the game. Washington sits as a +145 to +160 underdog depending on the sportsbook.

Just like with the moneylines, the spread also has a significant movement. Philadelphia opened as a touchdown favorite but saw that line drop as low as -3 points. It’s climbed back up to -3.5 points. And, as we all know, a half point could make or break your NFL bets depending on which team you are backing.

The Over/Under opened at 45.5 points and went as high as 50 total points. It’s currently settled at an O/U of 49 to 49.5 points.

Last week, we took the Ravens to win outright. We also took the Bengals to cover the six point spread and for the Total to go Over 52.5 points. We hit on all three picks as the Ravens won the game 35 to 34.

Thursday Night Football Odds

The following Thursday Night Football odds are courtesy of ScoresandStats:

As mentioned above, the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles are playing their first head-to-head matchup of the season on Thursday Night Football. Their second annual contest will take place in Week 16 just before Christmas.

This week’s matchup marks the 179^th time that these two franchises have played against each other. It’s a rivalry that spans 90 years. The Commanders hold a slight lead in the series with an 89-84-5 record.

However, it’s the Eagles that have owned this rivalry in recent years. Since 2017, Philly has gone 11-3 against Washington. This includes winning five of the last six meetings. The Eagles swept the Commanders last year. Yet, both contests were decided by an average of 5 points per game.

Surprisingly, the Commanders hold the slight edge in this series when playing at Philadelphia. Washington has a 44-43-2 record in games at Philly. However, the Eagles are 5-2 in their last seven home contests against the Commanders including winning last year’s matchup in OT.

Thursday Night Football Betting Trends

Check out the following Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles betting trends:

Commanders vs. Eagles Betting Trends

• Eagles are 7-3 SU in last 10 contests
• Washington is 5-3-2 ATS in last 10 meetings
• Over is 7-3 in last 10 matchups
• Eagles are 6-1 SU in last seven contests

Washington Commanders Betting Trends

• 7-2 SU in last nine games
• 1-4 SU in last five November games
• 2-6 SU in last eight NFC East games
• 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games
• 3-1-1 ATS in last five Road games
• 5-0 ATS in last five NFC games
• Over is 6-0 in last six road games
• Over is 6-2 in last eight games

Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends

• 5-0 SU in last five games
• 8-2 SU in last 10 NFC East games
• 7-0 SU in last seven November games
• 3-7 ATS in last 10 Week 11 games
• 5-11 ATS in last 16 games
• Under is 4-1 in last five NFC games

Thursday Night Football Predictions

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key matchups for this game as we make our Thursday Night Football NFL picks. NFL stats are courtesy of TeamRankings and Pro Football Reference.

Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense

It might be surprising to some as to just how good this Washington offense is. Currently, they rank in the Top 10 for many major statistical offensive categories.

The Commanders are 3^rd in points (29.0 ppg), 4^th in yardage (377.0 ypg), 5^th in 3^rd down conversion (44.72%), 1^st in fourth down conversion (91.67%), and 4^th in rushing (153.5 ypg). Their passing game is 11^th overall at 223.5 yards per game.

Philly’s defense has really improved over the last month of the season as they were once one of the bottom units in the league. Now, they’re 5^th in points allowed at 17.9 points per game. Additionally, they’re 2^nd in yards allowed (274.1 ypg), 5^th against the run (100.7 ypg), and 3^rd against the pass (173.4 ypg).

It’s easy to see why Philly is on a five-game winning streak when they have a defense playing this well. However, I caution you not to get too excited about these numbers. Let’s put them more into perspective so that we can have a better idea about this in-game matchup between Washington’s offense and Philly’s defense.

Over their five-game winning streak, Philly has beat the Browns, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars and Cowboys. All of those teams have losing records. Even the Bengals who are the best of that bunch, sit at 4-6 on the season.

Philly’s defense played great against Dallas last week, but they were without Dak Prescott and a number of other players. Additionally, Dallas has packed it in for the season.

I do have some concerns over the consistency of this Philly defense. For as impressive as they looked against Dallas and New York, two divisional rivals, they almost let the Jaguars come back and win in Week 9. Additionally, they almost let the Browns come back and win in Week 6.

I actually like Washington’s offensive opportunities in this game. Philly might be 5^th against the run, but those numbers are inflated. Dallas, Cincy, and the Giants have three of the worst rush offenses in the league. In fact, Dallas and Cincy are ranked near last.

The Browns had little offensive balance and the Jaguars were missing their three top receivers against Philly, which allowed the Eagles to key in on the running game. Jacksonville’s offense is in the bottom 10 of the league but they still put up 23 points.

I believe Washington QB Jayden Daniels will make plays with his legs, pick up first downs running the ball, and extend drives against this Philly defense. If Robinson returns to action this week, I love this matchup to favor Washington even more. As of now, I give them the slight edge.

Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense

Washington is a middle of the pack defense that allows 21.7 ppg (12^th) and 324.9 total yards per game (14^th). They’re also 5^th against the pass at 182.8 yards per game. With that said, Washington is susceptible to getting run on.

Currently, the Commanders allow 142.1 rushing yards per game which ranks them 28^th against the run. The Eagles are 2^nd in the league at 176.1 rushing yards per game. I fully expect Philly running back Saquon Barkley to have a big game against the Commanders. In fact, he will be featured in some of our player prop bets below.

I also expect Jalen Hurts to run the ball as well. Just like with Daniels, Hurts will extend plays and pick up first downs with his legs.

Philly’s passing attack is dangerous when at full health. They appear to be at that level as all of their weapons are back. Although the eagles only average 197.8 passing yards per game, Hurts has been highly efficient and effective when throwing the ball.

I give the edge to Philly for this in-game matchup. I expect both Barkley and Hurts to combine for close to 170 rushing yards on Thursday.

Who Wins TNF: Commanders or Eagles?

You have to be excited for this matchup. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch as there are playmakers all over the field, on both sides of the ball, and for both teams.

Rookie of the year leading candidate, Jayden Daniels, is a superstar in the making. No, he’s not the next Lamar Jackson, but he’s definitely a Top 15 QB in the league right now. He could become a Top 10 QB by next season though. Furthermore, Daniels in a primetime game is must watch football.

I’m not an Eagles fan, but I have several offensive stars on my fantasy team that currently sits in first place and on the verge of winning a few grand by taking the championship. Additionally, I’ve been a huge fan of Barkley since he joined Penn State nearly a decade ago.

Although I don’t really care which team wins, I am excited to watch this game. As for the Thursday Night Football betting odds, I believe Philly will win at home in front of an unruly and obnoxious crowd.

The Eagles have won eight of their last 10 NFC East divisional games and are 2-0 in the division this season. They’ve also gone 7-0 in their last seven November games which includes 2-0 this month. The Commanders are 1-4 in their last five November games. They’ve also dropped two of their last eight NFC East matchups.

However, I like for the Commanders to cover the 3.5 point spread. As I mentioned above, that half point is huge. It means that they can lose by a field goal, which is one of the biggest numbers for point differentials in the outcome of NFL games.

Washington has an impressive streak of 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine overall games. Additionally, they’ve gone 3-1-1 ATS in Away games this year and are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five NFC matchups. The Eagles are an abysmal 5-11 ATS in their last 16 overall games.

Lastly, I’m taking the Over in this contest. These teams can score in bunches. The Over is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these divisional rivals. Additionally, the Over is 6-0 in Washington’s last six road games and 6-2 in their last eight overall games.

I think we see a 27-24 victory for the Eagles, which is two points higher than the O/U of 49 total points.

Bet: Philadelphia Eagles (-180), Washington Commanders +3.5 (-110), Over 49 points (-110)

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Check out our picks for the best Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Game and Player Prop bets:

Jalen Hurts Anytime TD -105

This prop bet is based on Jalen Hurts rushing for a touchdown or catching a TD pass. This doesn’t include Hurts throwing for a TD.

With that said, Hurts is a vulture when it comes to taking the goal line carries away from Saquon Barkley. Yes, the “brotherly shove” or the “tush push” has been the team’s most reliable scoring play when at the goal line. They will even run it multiple times if the have to, instead of letting Barkley run it in.

Yes, I am salty about that since I have Barkley on my fantasy teams. Nevertheless, it’s a safe bet that Hurts will vulture another goal line TD this week.

In nine games played, Hurts has 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. In fact, he’s rushed for a TD in four straight games and six of the nine contests. Hurts has eight rushing TDs in his last four games.

Bet: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD -105

Saquon Barkley Receiving Yards

• Over 12.5 yards (-110)
• Under 12.5 yards (-110)

Currently, Saquon Barkley has 158 receiving yards on the season, which is an average of 17.6 yards per game. He’s gone over the 12.5 yard mark in nearly have of his games this season. In two additional contests, he finished with 12 yards and 11 yards receiving.

Washington might do a good job limiting AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith this week, but that should open up the underneath passing options for Philly and Hurts. This means that Barkley could benefit from soft coverage.

Barkley has 21 receptions on the year and has caught a pass in every game. In fact, he’s caught at least two or more receptions in seven of his nine appearances this year. These numbers give us a good shot at Barkley going for at least 13 receiving yards.

Bet: Over 12.5 yards (-110)

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards

• Over 91.5 yards (-110)
• Under 91.5 yards (-110)

As good as I feel about Barkley getting at least 13 receiving yards, I’m even more confident in the fact that he will get 92 or more rushing yards.

Philly has too many weapons for Washington to solely focus on just Barkley. They have to contain Hurts in the pocket and limit the receiving threats in Brown, Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert.

Furthermore, Washington has an awful rush defense that allows over 142 yards per game on the ground. Philly has the #2 ranked rushing attack at over 176 yards per game.

On the season, Barkley has already amassed 991 rushing yards, which is an average of 110.1 yards per game. He’s only failed to eclipse the 92-yard mark on three occasions.

The first sub-92 rushing yard mark came against the Buccaneers when the Eagles were blown out and played without Brown and Smith. The second came against Cleveland when the Eagles were flat following the Bye Week.

And the third time came last weekend against the Cowboys when Philly blew out Dallas 34 to 6. Otherwise, Barkley has gone for at least 95 rushing yards in six of his nine games so far.

I love this matchup for Barkley. I think Philly rolls with their running game this week since they have a huge advantage.

Bet: Over 91.5 yards (-110)

Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards

• Over 41.5 yards (-110)
• Under 41.5 yards (-110)

I just laid out how Philly’s #2 rushing attack has a massive advantage over the 28^th run stopping unit in Washington. And, I showed how Barkley could potentially have a big game on TNF. Well, the same can be said for Hurts who has been solid in running the ball as well.

In nine games, Hurts has 378 rushing yards, which is an average of 42 yards per game. It might be a close one for this prop to go over, so make sure you place a small flier on it.

Bet: Over 41.5 yards (-110)

Jayden Daniels Passing Touchdowns

• Over 1.5 TDs (-110)
• Under 1.5 TDs (-110)

On the season, Jayden Daniels has thrown nine TDs. However, in 10 games, Daniels has only thrown for two or more touchdowns in three contests. And, those games were against bad defenses with the Giants, Ravens and Bengals.

In fact, Daniels has more games of zero touchdowns (four) than he does multi-touchdown games (three). He’s only thrown for three TDs in the last four NFL games.

I like the Under for this matchup. I think Washington will score more rushing TDs than passing and that Daniels will throw for one TD pass at the most.

Bet: Under 1.5 TDs (-110)

Terry McLaurin Receptions

• Over 4.5 receptions (-110)
• Under 4.5 receptions (-110)

Terry McClaurin is the #1 receiver on the Commanders and one of Daniels favorite targets along with tight end Zach Ertz. For the season, McClaurin has 47 receptions on 66 targets. That’s an average of 4.7 receptions per game on 6.6 targets per game.

McLaurin has gone over this 4.5 mark in six of his 10 contests. In two additional matchups, he’s gone for four receptions in those games. I think that Washington will find some success throwing the ball especially with their Play Action. I’m taking the Over for this prop bet.

Bet: Over 4.5 receptions (-110)

Over 2.5 Total Field Goals Made -250

I typically don’t pick prop bets with odds this high. But I really like for these teams to combine for at least three field goals this week. I’m predicting a 27-24 win for the Eagles, which means they should combine for three field goals based on that score.

For the season, Washington’s Austin Seibert has made 25 FGs in 8 games which means he’s averaging more than three field goals a game. Philly’s Jake Elliott has only made 12 FGs in nine games which means he’s making roughly one FG per game. That’s still a total of at least four FGs made per game between these two kickers.

Bet: Over 2.5 Total Field Goals Made -250

Best Bets For Thursday Night Football

The Best Bets for Thursday Night Football are as follows:

• Philadelphia Eagles (-180)
• Washington Commanders +3.5 (-110)
• Saquon Barkley over 91.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Jayden Daniels under 1.5 touchdown passes (-110)

I like the Eagles to win at home on Thursday Night Football this week. If this moneyline goes down further, then that’s better value for us. Philly is 3-1 in home games this year. They’ve gone 11-3 against the Commanders since 2017.

Furthermore, Philly is 2-0 in the division this year and have won eight of their last 10 NFC East games. The Eagles are 7-0 in their last seven November games.

Although I see Philly winning this TNF matchup, I do believe that Washington will cover the spread. And, let’s be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Commanders won the game outright. But that might be a more likely outcome for the Week 16 game between these two teams since it will be in Washington.

The Commanders have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five NFC games, 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road games, and are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games. Philly is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games.

Last year, Washington lost in Philly by a field goal in OT. I think the Commanders can cover that 3.5 point spread this week considering they’re a far better team than they were last season.

For Washington to have success, they will need Jayden Daniels to play well. They will also need the running game to continue playing at a high level.

With that said, I still don’t see Daniels throwing for more than one TD pass in this game. Daniels has only had three multi-touchdown performances in 10 games so far.  

In fact, Daniels has thrown for zero TDs in four of his 10 games this season. Additionally, he’s only completed three touchdown passes in his last four overall games.

I believe that Saquon Barkley is going to have a monster performance against Washington this week. For starters, Philly has the #2 rushing attack with over 176 rushing yards per game. The Commanders have the 5^th worst rushing defense that allows over 142 rushing yards per game.

Barkley is average 110 rushing yards per game. Additionally, he’s gone for 95 or more yards in six of his nine games this year. Look for Philly to run the ball early and often as they lean on Barkley to steamroll the Commanders’ defense.

Thursday Night Football Schedule

Check out the complete Thursday Night Football schedule along with our predictions for each week: