2024 UCI World Championships Road Race Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, September 29, the 2024 UCI World Championships conclude with the highly anticipated 91^st edition of the Men’s Elite Road Race. This 273.9km race features some of the biggest names in the sport with history and glory on the line. 

The top story for this weekend’s road race is whether or not Tadej Pogacar can win the Triple Crown of cycling: Giro d’Italia, Tour de France and the World’s Road Race. The superstar cyclist skipped the 2024 Paris Olympic Games in order to focus on recovery and preparation for this Men’s Road Race. 

Pogacar’s biggest competition will be Remco Evenepoel. The talented Belgian not only won the gold medal at the Paris Olympics but he also just captured the gold for the World’s Individual Time Trial last Sunday.

Evenepoel and Pogacar are the two most successful cyclists in the sport today. However, they’re not the only stars in this race. Primoz Roglic, Marc Hirschi and the 2023 World’s Road Race winner Mathieu van der Poel are also taking the starting line on Sunday. 

Let’s take a look at the latest cycling odds for this event, examine the top betting options, and make our World Championships Men’s Elite Road Race predictions.

World Championships Men’s Road Race Route

The 2024 Men’s Elite Road Race begins in Winterthur of Zurich, Switzerland. Within the first 70km, the peloton will perform a loop that includes climbs up the Buch am Irchel (4.8km at 4.2%), the Kyburg (1.2km at 12%) and the Suessblatz (1.7 km at 8.5%).

Rider will then start the Zurich circuit which includes seven laps. The Zurichbergstrasse (1.1km at 7.4%) presents a tough challenge for the peloton especially its final few hundred meters which reaches 16% grade. Following the first climb, there’s a brief flat run before the second climb up the Witikonerstrasse (3.5km at 4.4%).

There are a few smaller ascents along the loop before eventually reaching the finish line in Zurich. In total, riders will compete across 273.9km and climb a total of 4,470 meters throughout the race. 

Men’s Elite Road Race Odds

The following cycling odds are courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Men’s Road Race Favorites

The following cyclists are considered the odds-on favorites to win the Men’s Elite Individual Time Trial:

Tadej Pogacar (-175)

As mentioned above, Tadej Pogacar is going for history in his attempt to win the rainbow jersey. He crushed the peloton at the Giro d’Italia then pulled away easily from a subpar Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour de France. 

Instead of competing at the Olympics, Pogacar prepared for the Worlds. He stretched his legs at the Grand Prix of Quebec and Montreal nearly two weeks ago. He won the latter race. 

Earlier in the year, Pogacar also won Strade Biance, Volta a Catalunya, and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He’s been the best cyclist in the sport throughout this year. And, he’s the best of his generation. 

What’s even scarier for the rest of the competitors in Sunday’s road race is the fact that Pogacar is highly motivated to win, especially after coming in third place last year:

“A rainbow jersey is something really special in cycling, the most unique jersey. Everybody wants it, I would guess. You wear it all year round and it defines you as the best rider in the world. It’s a big goal for me for the last couple of years. I will strive for it this year and if not, then in the next couple of years.” 

The Slovenian would go on to discuss how hard last year was for him. In fact, he was quoted as saying that “Last year in Glasgow, I must say it was one of the hardest races I’ve ever done.”

The 26-year-old mentioned how Glasgow’s course was not suited for him due to the explosiveness of the final portions of the race. In fact, the course was better suited for cyclists like van der Poel and Wout van Aert who finished first and second.

This year, Pogacar believes the route is ideal for him, and I fully agree. Additionally, he has a strong supporting team that includes Primoz Roglic. The two men joked about what would happen if they were the last ones racing for the win. Pogacar sarcastically stated that they would play “rock, paper, scissors” for the win. 

In addition to Roglic, Team Slovenia also includes talented riders like Jan Tratnik. This squad will ride for both Roglic and Pogacar until the end. However, Tadej is the man to beat on Sunday. 

Remco Evenepoel (+500)

In addition to Roglic, Remco Evenepoel is one rider who can challenge Pogacar for the win this weekend. The double-gold medal winner from the Olympics has already taken the gold at the World Championships Individual Time Trial. In fact, he’s looking to become the first cyclist to have ever won both the gold in the ITT and Men’s Road Race for the World Championships. 

Evenepoel knows that Pogacar is the man to beat. And, he’s confident in his chances this weekend. The Belgian aims to make history himself this Sunday and to defeat Pogacar along the way:

“The Tour is a different story. It is another step and a new chance to measure myself. Tadej looks very good. It will not be self-evident, but I can have confidence that I can handle him and that I can make it a great race. The World Championships is similar to those races (Liege and Lombardia). He is the man to beat, but that is why I am here.”

Let’s not forget that Evenepoel won the 2022 World Championships Road Race. So, he’s familiar with the pressure of this event and how to succeed at it. Additionally, Remco put up a very strong showing in this year’s Tour de France having finished 3^rd overall and capturing the white jersey competition. 

Evenepoel also finished 2^nd at Paris-Nice in March and was able to come back from a scary crash in the Tour of Basque Country in early April.

If Remco has the legs at the end of this race, he’s the one GC rider that can beat Pogacar in a sprint. 

Mathieu van der Poel (+800)

The other rider who can beat Pogacar in a sprint is Mathieu van der Poel. Although the media is fixated on the duel between Pogacar and Evenepoel, van der Poel is one rider that both of those men are highly aware of. 

In fact, both of them publicly commented on van der Poel’s chances this weekend. They also reminded everyone that van der Poel is the defending Worlds Road Race winner.

The Dutch rider has already won E3 Saxo Classic, Tour de Flanders and Paris-Roubaix this year. He finished 2^nd at Gent-Wevelgem and 3^rd at Liege-Bastogne-Liege. 

It’s important to note that the Liege race is similar to this weekend’s Worlds Road Race in toughness and length. However, the climbs at Liege were more difficult. This Sunday’s road race doesn’t have as difficult of climbs.

Additionally, van der Poel wasn’t in as good of form at Liege as his team manger believes he is in now. In fact, the team says that van der Poel is in his best form after losing weight and training for this road race. 

There’s some great value with van der Poel for Sunday’s event. If he can handle the accelerations over the climbs from Pogacar, Roglic and Evenepoel, then van der Poel could pull off the mild upset. 

March Hirschi (+1800)

If this weekend’s road race was a stage in the Vuelta a Espana or the Tour de France, Marc Hirschi would be favored to win. It’s a course that’s perfectly suited for his punchiness. In fact, Hirschi skipped the Vuelta to prepare for this Worlds Road Race:

“The plan was to do the Vuelta, but I chose not to because preparing well for the World Championship would be challenging. In this team, you have no freedom in a big tour if someone is in a leader’s jersey. The risk was that I had to work too hard for others, so I opted for solid training.”

Hirschi has competed in many one-day races throughout the year. He’s won numerous small events and had some strong showings in one day classics with a 2^nd in the Amstel Gold Race and 3^rd at Milano-Torino. Hirschi stretched his legs in the Tour of Luxembourg and is fully confident in his chances this weekend. 

The Swiss team will ride in support of Hirschi, which also bolsters his odds of a strong showing. 

Best Betting Value for the Men’s Elite Road Race

The following athletes offer betting value based on their current cycling odds and season performances:

Matteo Jorgenson (+2500)

Don’t sleep on Matteo Jorgenson this weekend. The American has a strong team supporting him with cyclists like Brandon McNulty, Neilson Powless, Magnus Sheffield and Quinn Simmons. McNulty is certainly a capable rider himself, but Jorgenson is proving that he could become an elite Grand Tour rider as soon as next year. 

Jorgenson finished 8^th in this year’s Tour de France, but that was largely due to supporting Vingegaard. If he rode for himself, then Jorgenson could’ve potentially challenged for a podium spot. He was 2^nd on Stage 19 and 4^th in the final time trial of the TDF.

Jorgenson also finished 2^nd at the Criterium du Dauphine and won both Paris-Nice and Dwars door Vlaanderen this year. 

The American cyclist is definitely one to keep your eyes on as he has the all-around skills to hang with the pre-race favorites. 

Primoz Roglic (+2500)

Primoz Roglic is coming off a historic win at the 2024 Vuelta a Espana. He tied the all-time record with four victories in cycling’s third Grand Tour race. However, some pundits feel that Vuelta riders have had a hard time recovering from that three-week long race. They point to the Men’s ITT last weekend as proof. 

And to a degree, there is some merit to what they’re saying. Roglic is typically a top-notch time trialist. Yet, he finished 12^th in the Men’s ITT last Sunday. It’s believed that he wasn’t fully recovered from the Vuelta for the Men’s ITT.

With that said, I do expect Roglic to have better form this weekend in the road race. But I also expect Roglic to end up working for Pogacar when it’s all said and done. I think Pogacar will have the fresher legs and it will force Roglic to ride in support during the final portions of this race. 

However, if Pogacar ends up fatigued in the final portions of this road race, then we could see Roglic pull out a big performance and possibly even win the rainbow jersey. 

Top Men’s Elite ITT Longshot

Michael Matthews (+6600) is my choice for the top longshot to win this race. The man does have one silver and two bronze medals for this competition. He’s also part of a criminally underrated Australian team that also features Jack Haig, Jai Hindley, Ben O’Connor and Jay Vine. Any of these riders can compete for the win.

Matthews and his teammates just won the World Championships Mixed Relay Team Time Trial a few days ago. He also scored a win at the Grand Prix of Quebec a few weeks ago. 

The Australian didn’t do much at the Tour de France this year, but he did have strong showings at the Tour de Suisse, Amstel Gold, and Milano-Sanremo.

A course like the Worlds Road Race suits Matthews punchy style. He’s similar to Hirschi in this regard. The Australian team will have to decide on the road as to which rider is the leader, but we could see Matthews in this spot. It’s all going to come down to form.

2024 UCI World Championships Men’s Road Race Predictions

I’m very excited for this weekend’s road race. I think it’s going to be a historic battle between Pogacar, Evenepoel and van der Poel. I also think other stars like Hirschi, Roglic, Jorgenson, Matthews, O’Connor, and Alaphilippe will all play parts in making this an epic race.

With that said, there’s really only one cyclist to bet on for the race win – Tadej Pogacar. 

The minute I heard that Pogacar wasn’t participating in the Paris Olympics, I knew that he was putting all of his focus and energy into the World Championships. The superstar wants the Triple Crown of cycling. If he succeeds, Pogacar will join Eddy Merckx (1974) and Stephen Roche (1987) as the only men to have ever accomplished this feat.

If he somehow falls to Evenepoel, then we will witness another form of history. Remco has already become the first man to win the Olympic and Worlds ITT in the same year. He could become the first man to sweep the ITT and Road Races for both the Olympics and the Worlds in the same year. This would be a feat that is probably never duplicated again.

Get your popcorn ready because Sunday is going to be one of the greatest road races in the history of cycling. And, my money is on the best in the sport – Pogacar. 

Bet: Tadej Pogacar (-175)

2024 UCI World Championships Men’s Road Race Prop Bets

The following cycling prop bets are courtesy of Bet365:

Enric Mas (-175) vs. Ben O’Connor (+125)

I already mentioned how fantastic Team Australia is; however, Team Spain is just as stacked. And, it sets up a great cycling head-to-head prop bet between both team’s top riders in Enric Mas and Ben O’Connor.

The two men battled it out at the Vuelta a few weeks ago. O’Connor came out ahead by taking second place, while Mas finished third.

Joining Mas on Team Spain are Carlos Rodriguez, Mikel Landa, Juan Ayuso and Pello Bilbao. This is a very talented squad who could have multiple cards to play at the end of the race.

With that said, I like O’Connor’s underdog odds in this matchup. This course isn’t suited for Mas’ elite climbing. In fact, I would say it’s better suited for Rodriguez.

I think both Mas and O’Connor will be outdone by other members of their respective teams. However, I still see O’Connor with the better finish of the two Vuelta podium cyclists.

Bet: Ben O’Connor (+125)

Best Top 3 Finish: Remco Evenepoel

• Yes (-135)
• No (+100)

I’ve already established how and why Evenepoel has a great shot at winning this race on Sunday. So, getting him as a Top 3 finisher seems like a no-brainer to me. And, with odds still closer to Even than not, it only adds to my desire of wagering on this cycling prop bet.

I like Pogacar to win the race, but I think Remco can finish second. And, if Tadej has a bad day then Evenepoel will be the man to beat.

Bet: Yes (-135)

Best Top 10 Finish: Mathieu van Der Poel (-135)

I almost spit my water out when looking at Mathieu van der Poel’s odds to finish in the Top 10. They’re the same odds as Evenepoel finishing in the Top 3. Yet, MVDP is the third odds-on favorite for this race and the defending World Champ.

I made sure to double check these odds before writing about it. Honestly, I think we could be stealing money from the sportsbook on this one. MVDP is in great form, has lost weight, and has already seen success this season. Not only is he a real threat to win the race, he’s almost a guarantee to finish in the Top 10.

Bet: Mathieu van Der Poel in the Top 10 (-135)

Previous World Championships Men’s Road Race Winners

The following is a list of the recent podium finishers for the World Championships Men’s Elite Road Race: 

There are five riders tied for the most wins at three apiece: Alfredo Binda, Rik Van Steenbergen, Oscar Freire, Eddy Merckx and Peter Sagan. However, Sagan is the only man to have ever won this event three years in a row. 

The most medals captured in this race is seven by Alejandro Valverde. The Spanish rider has one gold, two silvers, and four bronzes. He’s tied for the most silvers and has the most bronzes of all-time.  

Behind Valverde, are five men tied with four medals apiece: Binda, Van Steenbergen, Freire, Rik Van Looy, and Greg Lemond. Freire was the last cyclist to join this four-medal club as he accomplished that feat in 2004.

Belgium leads in gold medals won at 27. However, Italy has the most medals in the history of this race with 56. France and Belgium are tied for the most silver medals with 13 each. Italy also has the most bronze medals with 16.