UFC 304: Edwards vs Muhammad 2 Odds and Predictions 

On Saturday, July 27, the UFC returns to PPV with UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2. This event will be live from the Co-op Live in Manchester, UK. The featured bout of the evening is a welterweight title fight as Leon Edwards defends his championship against Belal Muhammad.  

The co-featured bout of the night will see Tom Apsinall defend his interim-heavyweight championship against Curtis Blaydes. Also on the main card are Top 10 battles as #6 Arnold Allen takes on #10 Giga Chikadze in a featherweight clash, while #6 Muhammad Moakaev takes on #8 Manel Kape in a flyweight fight. In total, UFC 304 has 14 bouts as of this publication.  

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our UFC 304 predictions.  

UFC 304 Odds  

The following Bovada odds are for the UFC 304 Main Card only: 

UFC 304 Main Card Predictions  

The following UFC 304 predictions are for the Main Card, which begins at 10pm ET live on ESPN+ PPV. All fighter stats are courtesy of Sherdog, while all fighter measurements are courtesy of UFC’s official site:   

Muhammad Mokaev (-140) vs. Manel Kape (+120) 

This flyweight bout is definitely a classic striker, Manel Kape (19-6), vs. grappler, Muhammad Mokaev (12-0, 1 NC). And, it’s one fight that really has me excited for the PPV. However, there has been some buzz that the bout might not happen. So, we’ll operate as if it is and make our UFC 304 predictions 

Manel Kape was a top striker and fighting outside of the UFC, including Rizin FF, until early 2021. It took a little bit of time for Kape to get his footing with the promotion as he lost his first two bouts via decision to Alexandre Pantoja and Matheus Nicolau. The latter was a robbery as I thought Kape won.  

After those losses, Kape has won four fights in a row with two of those being via TKO/KO. He last fought 10 months ago, and beat Felipe dos Santos via decision. 

Mokaev was with Brave CF before coming to the UFC in early 2022. Since then, he’s won six fights in a row and is now the #6 fighter in the weight class. He last fought in March and beat Alex Perez via decision. Prior to that, Mokaev had won three fights in a row via submission.  

I like Kape, but Mokaev is a buzzsaw. Once he gets you on the mat, it’s over. I see him taking Kape down and grinding out the decision victory with his top control. There’s a chance he finds a submission as well. The moneylines are the best play here.  

Bet: Muhammad Mokaev (-140) 

Arnold Allen (-235) vs. Giga Chikadze (+200) 

Here we have a fight that should provide fireworks as Top 10 featherweights Arnold Allen (19-3) and Giga Chikadze (15-3) battle for a potential future title fight.  

The #10 Chikadze is 8-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming to Calvin Kattar in January 2022. Kattar won a five-round war. Chikadze hasn’t fought since August 2023, when he beat Alex Caceres via decision.  

#6 Allen comes into this contest with a 10-2 record in the UFC. However, he’s lost his last two fights. In April 2023, he dropped a decision to Max Holloway. In January 2024, he lost via decision to Movsar Evloev. Clearly, Allen struggled against the top of the division, but I think he’s still slightly better than Chikadze.  

I give the edge in boxing to Allen, but those leg kicks from “Ninja” are unreal. With that said, this fight is a lot closer than what the oddsmakers have it as. For me, I think Allen’s striking will do more damage than the leg kicks. I think the volume of Allen’s strikes landed will be the deciding factor.  

Give me Allen via decision (-110). Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-240) and for the fight to go the distance (-210). 11 of Allen’s 22 fights have gone the distance including six of his last eight. Chikadze has gone the distance in six of his last nine bouts. 

Bet: Arnold Allen (-235), Over 2.5 Rounds (-240), Fight Goes The Distance (-210), Allen Wins Via Decision (-110) 

Bobby Green (-125) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+105) 

This lightweight clash features the veteran Bobby Green (32-15-1, 1 NC) taking on the rising star in Paddy Pimblett (21-3). 

Green is the slight favorite in this matchup and has been with the UFC for over a decade. He’ll turn 38 in September, and “King” has gone 3-1 in his last four fights. Most recently, he fought in April and beat Jim Miller via decision. His last defeat came in December where he lost via 1^st round KO.  

Pimblett has been with the UFC for three years now, and has put together a 4-0 record. He last fought in December, and beat Tony Ferguson via decision. Prior to that, he beat Gordon, Leavitt and Vargas as well.  

As much as Pimblett should be 3-1 in the UFC, I still believe he has the potential to rise in the rankings, which includes beating Green this weekend. Green might have racked up a bunch of wins over the last few years, but they weren’t against anyone of note. His mileage and age make me feel that Pimblett is poised to use this bout as a stepping stone into the rankings.  

Take England’s Pimblett to win via decision (+265). I believe the Brit will outwork and outstrike the veteran Green. Pimblett’s last two bouts have gone the distance and 12 of Green’s last 17 bouts have gone the distance. Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-180) and Fight To Go The Distance (-180).  

Bet: Paddy Pimblett (+105), Over 2.5 Rounds (-180), Fight To Go The Distance (-180) 

Tom Aspinall (-350) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+285) 

The co-featured bout is an interim heavyweight title fight as Tom Aspinall (14-3) defends his belt against Curtis Blaydes (18-4, 1 NC).  

This is a rematch from their July 2022 bout that ended via TKO due to a knee injury suffered by Aspinall. Since then, Blaydes has gone 1-1 with a loss to Sergei Pavlovich via TKO in the first round.  

Aspinall has gone 2-0 since that injury and crushed Pavlovich in his last fight via 1^st round KO. He also beat Tybura via 1^st round TKO last year. In fact, Aspinall has never gone the distance. That TKO loss will be avenged this weekend.  

Aspinall will put on a show for his fellow countrymen. He’s the better striker and has superior knockout power. Blaydes will get lit up in this striking matchup.  

There’s no way this fight goes the distance (-1000). I’m not sure it will even go to the second round. The Over/Under is at 1.5 rounds with the Under the sizable favorite (-165). Take Aspinall to win via TKO/KO (-175).  

11 of Aspinall’s 14 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. All four of Blaydes’ losses have come via TKO/KO. This is a recipe for knockout of the night.  

Bet: Tom Aspinall (-350), Aspinall Wins Via TKO/KO (-175) 

Leon Edwards (-235) vs. Belal Muhammad (+200) 

The main event of the night is a welterweight title fight as Leon Edwards (22-3, 1 NC) defends his championship against Belal Muhammad (23-3, 1 NC) in a rematch from their March 2021 bout. That fight ended via NC due to an accidental eye poke. However, Edwards was ahead in that matchup. 

Since then, Muhammad has won five straight fights including decision victories over Vicente Luque and Gilbert Burns. The latter was his most recent bout and took place in May 2023.  

Edwards went on to beat Nate Diaz, Usman twice including winning the title, and Colby Covington in December 2023, which was his most recent fight.  

Muhammad’s strengths tend to not work with Edwards who is just as good of a grappler and probably the better striker. The champ also has the slight reach and height advantages, along with the hometown crowd.  

The Over/Under is set at 4.5 rounds with the Over favored at -225. Fight going the distance is favored at -190 odds. I agree with both of the favorites for these props. I see this being a grind of a fight, which will be slow paced and grapple or clinch heavy.  

With that said, I like Edwards to retain the title. I believe he’s still the better fighter of the two. I just don’t see Muhammad’s path to victory in this one other than a lucky knockout. Take Edwards to win via decision (+105).  

Six of Edwards’ last seven fights, not including the NC, went the distance. 19 of Muhammad’s 26 pro fights have gone the distance.  

Bet: Leon Edwards (-235), Over 2.5 Rounds (-225), Fight Goes The Distance (-190), Edwards Wins Via Decision (+105) 

UFC 304 Preliminary Card Predictions   

The following UFC 303 predictions are for the Preliminary Card, which begins live at 8pm ET on ESPN and ESPN+.  

Mick Parkin (-270) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+230) 

This heavyweight clash pits London’s Mick Parkin (9-0) against Poland’s Lukasz Brzeski (9-4-1, 1 NC). In reality, this bout is to feed Brzeski to Parkin in front of his fellow countrymen and continue to build up a potential Top 15 heavyweight.  

Since joining the UFC, Brzeski has gone 1-3. He dropped his first three trips inside the octagon to Martin Buday via decision, Karl Williams via decision, and Waldo Cortes-Acosta via 1^st round KO. Brzeski was able to snap that losing streak in April with a decision win over Valter Walker. Unfortunately, the good times won’t last long as Parkin is going to beat Brzeski this weekend. 

The undefeated Parkin has gone 3-0 in the octagon since debuting one year ago. All three wins have come via decision. Parkin is the sparring partner of Aspinall, and has shown solid striking skills, which will come into play this Saturday.  

I like for this fight to go Over 2.5 rounds (-180) and the full distance (-165). With that said, take Parkin to win via unanimous decision as he lands more strikes and dictates most of the action. 

Bet: Mick Parkin (-270) 

Caolan Loughran (-190) vs. Jake Hadley (+260) 

This bantamweight bout was originally scheduled between Caolan Loughran (9-1) and Ramon Taveras, but the latter pulled out due to an injury. Jake Hadley (10-3) fills in on less than two weeks’ notice.  

Hadley is from the UK and has gone 2-3 with the UFC since his debut in May 2022. He’s dropped all three of those bouts via decision, including his last two trips inside the octagon.  

In-between those losses, the Brit picked up two victories over Carlos Candelario via 2^nd round submission and Malcom Gordon via 1^st round TKO. So, he has some finishing prowess and won’t be a cakewalk despite what the odds say. 

Ireland’s Loughran was unbeaten before joining the UFC. He railed off four TKO victories in a row and then debuted with the UFC in September 2023, where he lost via decision to Taylor Lapilus. Loughran bounced back in March with a decision win over Angel Pacheco. 

I see this bout being tightly contested with both men getting in their shots. With that said, I like for it to go Over 2.5 rounds (-260) and the Full Distance (-220). Once with the judges, I’m taking Loughran to win this fight via decision. I see the Irishman outworking and out-striking Hadley for the victory.  

Bet: Caolan Loughran (-190), Over 2.5 Rounds (-260), Fight Goes The Distance (-220) 

Molly McCann (-360) vs. Bruna Brasil (+295) 

I for one am excited to see “Meatball” return to action as Molly McCann (14-6) has found a home in the strawweight division. She’s a massive favorite over Bruna Brasil (9-4-1), and for good reason. Simply put, McCann is the better fighter.  

Brasil is 1-2 since joining the UFC in April 2023, where she lost via 2^nd round TKO to Denise Gomes. She bounced back for a decision win over Shauna Bannon one year ago. Her last fight came in February, where she lost via decision to Konklak Suphisara. 

McCann moved to strawweight for her last fight and beat Diana Belbita via 1^st round submission. She snapped a two-fight losing streak and is now 4-2 in her last six fights. Overall, Meatball is 7-5 with the UFC. 

This fight is either going the distance where McCann wins via decision, or Meatball picks up the TKO/KO victory. I’m finding it hard to decide which outcome will take place. So, I’m sticking with McCann to win. The Over/Under is 2.5 rounds with the Over at -130. Fight going the distance is -120.  

Bet: Molly McCann (-360) 

Nathaniel Wood (-410) vs. Daniel Pineda (+310) 

Nathaniel Wood (19-6) is the largest betting favorite for the entire UFC 304 event, as he takes on Daniel Pineda (28-15, 3 NC) in this featherweight showdown. 

Wood has been with the UFC for over six years and has gone 7-3 inside the octagon. He lost in his last appearance, October 2023, via decision to Muhammadjon Naimov. That loss snapped a three-fight winning streak.  

Pineda is 2-2 with 1 NC since joining the UFC four years ago. He last fought 13 months ago and lost to Alex Caceres via decision. Despite a .500 record inside the octagon, Pineda is a level below Wood in regards to overall fight skills.  

If you want better value, take Wood to finish inside the distance. Oddsmakers have this fight set at an O/U of 1.5 rounds with the Over favored at -160 odds. The fight ending inside the distance is at -250. 

For me, I like Wood to get the finish. 13 of his 19 pro wins have come via stoppage. Nine of Pineda’s 15 pro losses have come via stoppage. I’m taking Wood to pick up the TKO somewhere in the late-second to early-third. Wood lands more punches per minute (5.91 to 3.09) and has a better striking defense (56% to 46%).  

Bet: Nathaniel Wood (-410), Over 1.5 rounds (-160), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-250), Wood Wins Via TKO/KO (+215) 

UFC 304 Early Preliminary Card Predictions  

The following UFC 303 predictions are for the Early Prelims portion of the card, which begins at 6pm ET live on ESPN+.   

Modestas Bukauskas (-145) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+125) 

Marcin Prachnio (17-7) has been with the UFC for over six years now, and has compiled a record of 4-5 inside the octagon. The light heavyweight has alternated between wins and losses over the last two years. His most recent bout was against Devin Clark in February, where he won via decision.  

Both men lost to Vitor Petrino last year. Prachnio lost via 3^rd round submission in July 2023, and Modestas Bukauskas (15-6) lost via 2^nd round KO in November which was his most recent fight.  

Prior to the Petrino defeat, Bukauskas had won four in a row. For his career, Bukauskas is 3-4 in the UFC spanning across two stints with the promotion. Unfortunately, three of those four losses have come via TKO/KO.  

I don’t feel confident in either fighter, but I do think Bukauskas might be overvalued here. He’s very hittable and Prachnio can land strikes. I’m taking the upset in this light heavyweight bout as Prachnio will land more significant strikes and win via decision (+250). Four of his last six bouts have gone the distance. The Over/Under is set at 2.5 rounds with the over favored at -180 odds. 

Bet: Marcin Prachnio (+125), Fight Goes The Distance (-150) 

Shauna Bannon (-170) vs. Alice Ardelean (+145) 

This strawweight bout was originally scheduled for Shauna Bannon (5-1) to take on Ravena Oliveira. The latter was forced out and now Alice Ardelean (9-5) will be filling in on short notice. 

Ardelean might be better known for her OnlyFans account and TikTok videos. However, don’t let that fool you. She’s an accomplished MMA fighter with five straight victories. Her last loss came in 2016, to Weili Zhang. Eight of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage.  

Bannon is sponsored by Conor McGregor and dropped her UFC debut one year ago via decision to Bruna Brasil. Her last four bouts have gone the distance, so I expect this one as well (-220).  

As for the winner, I think Bannon picks up the victory. “Mama B” is a talented fighter who got off on the wrong foot with her UFC career. Take Bannon to pick up the decision win in what should be a tightly contested battle. 

Bet: Shauna Bannon (-170), Fight Goes The Distance (-220) 

Sam Patterson (-360) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+285) 

Here we have an all-UK battle as England’s Sam Patterson (11-2-1) battles Ireland’s Kiefer Crosbie (10-4) in a welterweight clash. 

Crosbie spent the majority of his career in Bellator before eventually making his way to the UFC 10 months ago. He dropped his last two Bellator bouts before departing. From there, he took some regional fights before his octagon debut where he lost via 1^st round submission to Kevin Jousset. Crosbie is 3-2 in his last five bouts.  

Patterson had an unbeaten record with numerous fights in Brave CF before appearing on DWCS in September 2022, where he beat Vinicius Cenci via 2^nd round submission. His octagon debut was in March 2023, but he lost via 1^st round KO to Yanal Ashmoz. Patterson bounced back in January with a 1^st round submission win.  

Patterson is a large favorite with an eight-inch reach advantage and a four-inch height advantage. 10 of his 11 pro wins have come via stoppage. I expect Patterson to pick up another stoppage this weekend. This fight will end inside the distance (-600). The only question is which round it will end in.  

The O/U is set at 1.5 rounds, which is too close for my liking. However, Patterson winning via submission is -110 odds, and I like that value. Six of his 11 pro wins have come via submission. Crosbie has suffered two submission defeats.  

Bet: Sam Patterson (-360), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-600) 

Christian Leroy Duncan (-145) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+125) 

Originally, this bout was scheduled for Christian Leroy Duncan (10-1) to take on Robert Bryczek. Unfortunately, the latter withdrew from the fight. So, Brazil’s Gregory Rodriguez (15-5) agreed to step up and take this short notice, middleweight clash. 

Rodrigues has been with the UFC since the summer of 2021, and has compiled a 6-2 record since then. His two losses came against Armen Petrosyan in 2022, and Brunno Ferreira in 2023. He’s also 4-1 in his last five bouts, including winning his last two fights.  

Rodrigues beat Denis Tiuliulin via 1^st round KO in August 2023, and defeated Brad Tavares via 3^rd round TKO in February. In fact, six of his eight UFC fights have ended via TKO/KO and he’s 4-2 in those bouts. 

Duncan was the former Cage Warriors middleweight champ. He’s gone 3-1 in the UFC since joining in early 2023. His last fight came in March, where he beat Claudio Ribeiro via 2^nd round TKO.  

The odds favor this bout to go Over 1.5 rounds (-135), but end inside the distance (-220). Someone is getting knocked out in this matchup. In their combined 31 total fights, these two men have gone the distance on just six occasions. Rodrigues is 10-3 in fights ending via TKO/KO, and CLD is 8-0. 

I think Duncan gets the big TKO victory in front of his fellow countrymen in this one. It won’t be easy, but CLD has a four-inch reach advantage and will get the better of Rodrigues in striking exchanges to pick up the TKO win (+140).  

Bet: Christian Leroy Duncan (-145), Fight Ends Inside The Distance (-220) 

Oban Elliott (+115) vs. Preston Parsons (-135) 

This welterweight bout pits Oban Elliott (10-2) against Preston Parsons (11-4) in what could be one of the more exciting fights of the early prelims. 

Elliott makes his way to the UFC after a lengthy stint at Cage Warriors. He appeared on DWCS in August 2023, and beat Kaik Brito via decision. His octagon debut came in February, where he beat Valentine Woodburn via decision. Elliott has won six straight fights.  

Parsons has been with the UFC for three years and has racked up a 2-2 record over that span. He lost to Daniel Rodriguez in his debut via 1^st round TKO. From there, he’s alternated between wins and losses. His most recent fight came in January, where he beat Matthew Semelsberger via decision.  

The Over/Under is set at 2.5 rounds with the Over slightly favored at -135. Fight ending inside the distance is -125.  

The odds are pretty close with this fight and so are their measurements. I think we get a three-round striking battle that entertains the masses. With that said, I’m going with Elliott to pick up the win via decision. His last five wins have come via decision. The Wales fighter will be highly motivated fighting in the UK on such a big card.  

Bet: Oban Elliott (+115) 

UFC 304 Full Fight Card