UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Odds and Predictions

One of the more underrated MMA fights of the year headlines UFC 305, as Dricus Du Plessis prepares to defend his middleweight title belt against Israel Adesanya.

I could stop there, but the UFC 305 odds – as well as the rest of this fight card – make for a fun time come Saturday, August 17th.

This is going to be worth tuning into, but this huge event is also made more fun thanks to the ability to bet on it. The question, of course, is which UFC 305 bets are the best to target?

Think you know who wins some of these high-profile bouts, or need a little extra advice before finalizing your wagers? You’ve come to the right place.

Join me as I break the Australia PPV card down, first dissecting the latest UFC 305 betting odds, and then detailing my favorite picks.

UFC 305 Odds

The following odds are for the UFC 305 Main Card only:

This is a major UFC event, so you won’t have to look far for UFC 305 odds. All of the top sports betting sites will offer them, so I’d focus on the site that offers the best pricing.

That, and maybe also seek out sportsbooks offering UFC 305 prop bets or specialty wagers. I grabbed the UFC 305 betting odds from BetUS, so we can start there.

There’s nothing too shocking at first glance when inspecting the latest UFC 305 odds. The main thing worth noting is that the main card is full of five potential dog fights.

Things could get pretty interesting across the board, but most eyes will be on the headlining bout and the other main card fights. Let’s first explore how to bet on those matches before covering the Prelims.

UFC 305 Main Card Predictions

If you want to bet on the main UFC 305 fight card, you can start with my predictions here. You’ll have a little extra time to get your bets in, as the main card won’t fire off until 10:00 pm ET on ESPN+.

Israel Adesanya (-125) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (-105)

It’s going to be awfully difficult to go against Israel Adesanya in this match. The Last Stylebender is 24-3 overall with 16 KOs to his name, with his three defeats coming fairly recently, but to huge names like Sean Strickland (Decision), Alex Pereira (TKO), and Jan Blachowicz.

Nobody is going to clown Adesanya for any of those losses, while going five brutal rounds with Strickland is evidence enough that Israel hasn’t lost much – if anything. The 35-year old Nigerian avenged his only career knockout loss by finishing Alex Pereira early, too, which reminds everyone he’ll be a threat to do so again versus Du Plessis.

Of course, Du Plessis (30) is younger, and has one less loss (21-2) on his ledger. He’s eaten one KO defeat, but it came in 2018 and it’s undeniable that he’s the hotter fighter at the moment.

Du Plessis even bested Sean Strickland in five rounds in his most recent fight in January, while he’s won nine straight en route to winning the middleweight championship. 

His impressive run includes wins via stoppage over Robert Whittaker, Derek Brunson, and Darren Till, so there’s no doubt he has the goods to give Adesanya a run for his money.

Narrative plays a key role for me here. These are two very gifted fighters, and it’s absolutely a close call. However, at age 35, this may be Israel’s last real crack at getting his title belt back.

Fortunately, this fight isn’t egregiously priced. You don’t have to pay a ton to back Adesanya to get back what once was his.

Bet: Israel Adesanya (-125)

Steve Erceg (-185) vs. Kai Kara-France (+155)

Next up is Astro Boy, who owns a solid 12-2 record and will be taking on an underrated foe in Kara-France.

Steve Erceg is underrated in his own right, as the 29-year old Aussie has never been stopped early and has been a bit of a menace on the mat (6 career submissions). He’s also been red hot, as he won 11 consecutive fights before missing the mark in a tough Decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja.

Losing to The Cannibal brings Erceg no shame, though. It just forces a mild redirection for his career, and he’s favored to rebound and take out a battle tested but beatable Kara-France.

Kara-France has the edge in experience and KO upside. He’s scored 11 knockout wins in his career and boasts a 24-11 record. He knows how to grind out Decisions, and he’s got the power and striking ability to do major damage.

Fortunately for Erceg, he’s bigger than Kara-France and the more well-rounded fighter. 

I am definitely worried about Kara-France’s striking here, but I’ll trust in Erceg’s overall skill-set, as well as the fact that the Perth native is fighting in his own backyard for this one.

Bet: Steve Erceg (-185)

Mateusz Gamrot (-330) vs. Dan Hooker (+240)

There are several Fight of the Year candidates at UFC 305, making it one of the more underrated cards we’ve seen in some time.

This bout between Gamrot and Hooker is certainly one of them, as the man known as Gamer brings in a stout 24-2 record and the ability to win in a variety of ways. Gamrot has 8 career KOs and five decisions, and he’s yet to lose early by stoppage.

He’s also in fine form, with his only loss since 2021 coming to the dangerous Beneil Dariush via Decision. The 33-year old has otherwise been on a tear, going 7-1 over his last eight fights, with his most recent victory a Decision win over the great Rafael dos Anjos.

Put simply, Gamrot isn’t an easy guy to hang with. He’s grinded his way to 11 Decisions, but few fighters have truly gotten the best of him. This is the biggest reason why Dan Hooker is a significant underdog.

Hooker is an accomplished fighter, to be sure. He has a 23-12 record with 11 KOs and 7 submissions, so we know how dangerous he is. 

Unfortunately, he can be a bit too aggressive at times, which leaves him open to dangerous shots.

We’ve seen that a lot lately, as the 34-year old New Zealand native has gotten destroyed by some massive names. Michael Chandler and Arnold Allen slapped him around pretty good, while Islam Makhachev submitted him.

None of that brings shame to the Hooker family, and we shouldn’t ignore 1. His two rebound wins since those losses nor 2. His finishing ability.

However, Gamrot is the more seasoned fighter, he’s just as dangerous – if not more so – and he’s not easily tricked. Hooker is live to mess up your UFC 305 parlays, but he’s not a very realistic upset pick.

Bet: Mateusz Gamrot (-330)

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-225) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+185)

Bigi Boy is getting a bit old to be trusted at marquee events, but he’s still a huge betting favorite as he prepares to battle Tai Tuivasa at UFC 305.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik has a solid 14-5 record, but at age 36, it’s fair to wonder if his best days in MMA are behind him. With just two fights since 2022, he’s not the most active fighter, while he’s sliding with an uninspiring 3-4 record over his last seven bouts.

That said, Rozenstruik TKO’d Shamil Gaziev in his most recent fight in March of this year, firmly reminding us that he’s still relevant.

The only question, of course, is how long that reality will last. Rozenstruik has serious staying power with an insane 13 KO wins in his 14 wins, but he is not immune to being upset.

That’s the cost of doing business at the heavyweight level, as all of these dudes pack a serious punch. Tai Tuivasa, otherwise known as Bam Bam, is no different, as he has 13 KO wins on his resume.

He can be had, too, as he has a “meh” 14-7 record, and has been reeling of late with four straight losses. They came against some big names, of course, as a defeat to Ciryl Gane kicked off the losing streak, and he’s since lost bouts to Sergi Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov, and Marcin Tybura.

Tai is still live for the upset, and his +185 odds aren’t bad at all. However, Rozenstruik has a longer reach, he’s the better athlete, and he’s the more skilled fighter. It’s not the worst UFC 305 upset to go after, but I’d much prefer hanging my hat on Rozenstruik to get the win.

Bet: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-225)

Carlos Prates (-325) vs. Li Jingliang (+235)

So far I am riding the betting favorites for the UFC 305 main card, but will it be a full 5/5 sweep, or can Li Jingliang end that trend?

It’s certainly worth considering, as he’s the second most alluring UFC 305 underdog on the main card in terms of sheer price. I’m just not sure the logic really gets me there.

Jingliang is 19-8 overall, so we know he’s an experienced fighter. He has 10 career KOs, too, so we also know he can be dangerous. By every other metric, though, he seems like the clear underdog.

He’s five years older than his opponent, Carlos Prates, he is shorter, and he has far inferior reach (78 inches to 72). Prates, on the other hand, isn’t dubbed The Nightmare for no reason.

The Brazil native is 19-6 overall, but has a disturbing 17 wins by early stoppage, with 14 coming via KO. He can be had (five career early stoppage defeats), but it’s been some time since someone got the best of him.

Prates has eight straight Ko wins, and hasn’t dropped a fight since 2019. It really seems like Jingliang is overmatched here, and Prates is about to coast to another big win.

Bet: Carlos Prates (-325)

UFC 305 Preliminary Card Predictions

If you want some edge when betting on UFC 305, I highly suggest doing some extra research and placing some bets on the Preliminary bouts. There are some underrated matches here, and some pretty inviting odds as well. The Early Prelims begin at 6:30 pm ET. The second set of Prelims begin at 8pm ET. The following is a list of our UFC 305 Preliminary Card predictions:

Josh Culibao (-140) vs. Ricardo Ramos (+110)

The Prelims could offer some solid value, and I think it starts with backing Josh Culibao as a -140 favorite. The Aussie native gets a fight at home at UFC 305, so right away I’d be looking for reasons to back him.

More than that, though, Culibao has run into some bad luck with two straight Decision defeats. He’s otherwise been solid, going 11-3 overall in his MMA career and starting off at 3-1-1 in the UFC before running into some roadblocks.

This feels like a good spot for him to get back on track. He’ll face Ricardo Ramos, who started his career hot and is 16-6, but has gone just 4-5 over his last nine bouts. His defense hasn’t been great lately (two straight submission defeats), and he loses an inch in height and reach to Culibao in this fight.

I think this bout is appropriately priced, but Culibao as a -140 home favorite will be tough to shy away from.

Bet: Josh Culibao (-140)

Luana Santos (-180) vs. Casey O’Neill (+150)

There is just one fight with females on the UFC 305 card as I write this, but it could be a good one. We have Luana Santos as the early -180 betting favorite, but I think this is the first opportunity to pounce on the underdog.

The first thing some bettors may not know is Santos was not Casey O’Neill’s original opponent. O’Neill is also an Australia native and she has the edge in terms of traveling for this fight – by a lot. On top of this, O’Neill very well simply be the superior fighter.

She’s certainly the better striker, so if this fight can stay on the feet, I think she’s a runaway value bet. Santos hasn’t been perfect, either. Her recent form is good and she’s 9-1 overall, but she has just one KO win to her name.

O’Neill has three such wins, and while she’s taken a step back after a 9-0 start, I think this is a great opportunity for her to rebound in front of her hometown fans.

Bet: Casey O’Neill (+150)

Stewart Nicoll (-235) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+195)

Here’s another good fight for the Prelims card, as Nicoll (8-0) has yet to close, and he’ll look to fend off the 10-2 Aguilar. Nicoll is the correct favorite to win here, as he’s shown himself to be a well-rounded fighter who can win in a multitude of ways.

This is also Nicoll’s UFC debut, so you better believe he’s going to bring all of the smoke. He’s done that to this point, as he’s won each of his last four bouts via KO. This is another Aussie native who has the size edge, so it’ll be awfully tough to go against him.

Aguilar has a little more experience and is a problem on the ground (6 submissions), but I think Nicoll has the edge in momentum and overall skill-set.

Bet: Stewart Nicoll (-235)

Tom Nolan (-1500) vs. Alex Reyes (+800)

If you want to hunt for serious UFC 305 betting odds, let’s give Alex Reyes a look. There is zero reason to bet in favor of Tom Nolan, regardless of how much of a lock he appears to be.

Big Train Nolan is 7-1 for his career with five career KOs to his name. He’s just 1-1 in the UFC so far, and he got taken out by TKO in his debut against Nikolas Motta. 

That right there is reason enough for me to at least consider going against him.

Reyes is a massive dog here at +800. He’s 37 years old and is 0-2 in the UFC with two brutal Ko defeats, too. However, he has more experience than Nolan, and he was flat out dominant (10-0 with 9 KOs) prior to the elevation to the next MMA company in the world.

Is that enough to get you to bet on him? If so, give him a look at +800. I still think Nolan wins this. He certainly should, as he is way younger, and so far Reyes has shown nothing worth backing in his two UFC fights.

If anything, I’d go find some UFC 305 prop bets or specials that allow you to bet on Nolan to win via KO or to bet on this fight to finish inside the distance.

Bet: Tom Nolan (-1500)

Jack Jenkins (-800) vs. Herbert Burns (+500)

Another high value match has Jack Jenkins as a huge favorite. He’s 12-3 so far in his career with 5 Ko wins, and he’s off to a 2-1 start in the UFC. 

He did lose his most recent bout to Jose Mariscal via TKO, though.

Jenkins hasn’t fought since September of 2023 due to that arm injury, so it’s worth wondering if rust or mentality factor into his return.

Herbert Burns might also just be a bad matchup for Jenkins. Jenkins is a dangerous fighter, but the main thing he doesn’t excel at is grappling, and that’s something Jenkins had issues with earlier in his career. Burns has eight career submissions, too.

The man is an artist when it comes to getting taps, to be sure.

Also worth noting? Burns won’t be rusty, He fought in March of this year, and while he’s lost three in a row, things could be aligning for an upset here. Oh, and he has a massive reach and minor height edge here.

Is it possible Jenkins isn’t the exact same tenacious dude we saw back in 2023? Sure. Could the reach issue prevent him from dominating on his feet? Absolutely. Might the grappling issues tilt this to Burns’ favor? I kind of think so, yeah.

Jenkins is the better fighter, but the matchup is less than ideal. You’re not racing to your favorite book to bet on someone at -800, either. I am digging Burns at +500.

Bet: Herbert Burns (+500)

Junior Tafa (-125) vs. Valter Walker (-105)

It figures to be a closely contested match when Junior Tafa and Valter Walker face off at the UFC 305 Prelims.

Tafa is the mild betting favorite, but The Juggernaut lacks major polish. That said, he’s 5-2 with five knockouts so far. 

He is just 1-2 in the UFC, but he put his power on display when he took out Parker Porter back in 2023.

On the other side is Walker, who has far more experience. He’s 11-1 coming into this one, and the Russian has six career Ko wins. He’s also never been taken out via early stoppage and he sports an insane reach edge (81 inches to 72), and is also three inches taller.

I really like The Clean Monster here. He is not an easy guy to take out, and he held his own in a Decision loss to Lukasz Brzeski in his UFC debut. 

I see another Decision coming here, but I’ll lean Walker for a bit more value, and if you’re betting on a knockout, I’d go with Walker for that bet, too.

Bet: Valter Walker (-105)

Song Kenan (-185) vs. Ricky Glenn (+155)

The Assassin returns at UFC 305, as Songh Kenan prepares to wage war with Ricky Glenn. The China native is a respectable favorite here, as he looks to add to his 21-8 record.

Last time we saw Kenan, he lost a tough fight to Kevin Jousset. His recent form has not been great, either, as he is just 1-3 over his last four bouts. He may have to shake off a little rust, too.

Even so, he’s a nasty fighter with nine career knockouts and nine submissions on his resume. He has a mild reach advantage going up against Glenn, and he’s also slightly younger.

Glenn has a similar record at 21-8-2, and he has 13 KO wins under his belt. However, he’s lost by stoppage four times in his career, and he’s specifically had a tough time in the UFC.

The talent and production simply haven’t translated to this level. Just one of Glenn’s 14 KO wins have come against top tier competition, and he’s only 4-5-1 since stepping up to the UFC.

To be frank, the odds should favor Kenan more. The layoff is a little worrisome, but he’s the better fighter and this price feels soft. I’d jump on it and also look for UFC 305 props that allow you to bet on Song getting an inside the distance win.

Bet: Song Kenan (-185)

UFC 305 Full Fight Card