UFC 309 Odds and Predictions

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I nailed the main event for UFC Fight Night 247 last week, but considering Carlos Prates was a -750 favorite, I’d imagine probably everyone did. Two of the other main card bouts were canceled, but I hit on two more picks, going 3-1 overall on the main card.

My UFC betting picks were just as good in the Prelims (4-2), as I had a solid 7-3 showing on the night. Needless to say, if you used my favorite plays for each fight, you finished in the green.

The stakes are understandably raised with the UFC 309 odds live at your favorite MMA sportsbooks, of course. We have a legendary showdown between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic on an epic main card, and this is one UFC event you will not want to miss.

My guess is you’ll also want some skin in the game. You can lean on sports betting handicappers if you’d like, or proceed for a look at the latest odds and my top picks for each bout.

UFC 309 Odds

Here are the latest UFC 309 odds at the top MMA betting sites. 

The UFC 309 main card is not the place to bet on favorites. I’m not entirely sure it’s the most inviting spot to bet on MMA upset picks, either.

There is absolutely merit in just throwing caution to the wind and betting on the likes of Miocic, Craig, and Chandler. I’ll break down if those are routes you’ll seriously want to consider, of course, or if there is a secondary bet that is more tangible.

The point here is the main card is loaded, but it isn’t as simple as some would come to expect. Things do get a little easier to navigate in the Prelims, though, and across the board there is absolutely no denying the sheer magnitude of this card.

If you’re ready to place some bets, join me as I break down the entire event, starting with the UFC 309 main card picks.

UFC 309 Main Card Predictions

The UFC 309 main card wraps things up, with the first main card bout going live at 9:00 pm EST on PPV.

Jon Jones (-700) vs. Stipe Miocic (+500)

Bones enters as a massive -700 betting favorite at UFC 309, which shocks absolutely nobody. Not only is the 37-year old UFC legend 27-1 for his career, but he hasn’t tasted defeat in over a decade.

Jones is regarded as the best MMA fighter of all-time, so it won’t be easy for Stipe Miocic to cover the ground needed to stage the upset. He literally has extra ground to cover, too, as Jones has a 4.5-inch reach advantage.

The numbers support Jones here, as he has slightly superior striking accuracy and has been the better fighter when it comes to takedowns. We know he can end this early basically however he wants it (10 KOs, 7 submissions), while he’s as tough as anyone (never been finished.

Now, that isn’t to say Miocic doesn’t stand a chance here. The 42-year old could be rusty after having last fought in 2021, but he still stands in with a stout 20-4 career record and boasts nasty power (15 KOs). He isn’t going to win this fight via submission, though, and between the two, he’s much more vulnerable to lethal striking.

I’d love to earn some quick cash with Miocic at +500, but it’s probably a pipedream. Jones is five years younger, he’s more technically skilled, and he’s virtually impossible to put to sleep. I think Jones wins here, but you’re obviously not betting on him at -700. Due to that, I’d chase a KO.

Bet: Jon Jones -700

Charles Oliveira (-255) vs. Michael Chandler (+215)

Any other MMA event, and this is the headliner. This is quite the showdown, as you have an elite overall mixed martial artist in Oliveria (34-10) and an elite striker in Chandler (23-8).

The 35-year old Oliveira is incredibly versatile and is extremely dangerous (21 submissions) on the canvas. He’s been a bit hit or miss (1-2) over his last three bouts, but he’s been facing the best of the best for some time now. 

I wouldn’t hold that against him, while a now 38-year old Chandler (11 KOs) doesn’t have better form (1-3 over last four). He also lost the last meeting with Oliveira (TKO), so I’m not sure what’s changed that suggests he’ll get the upper hand in this one.

Chandler is three years older, not as skilled, and loses about three inches in reach. Chandler is absolutely live to get the upset here, as we know he’s as tough as they come and he also hits extremely hard. I do give the edge to Oliveira, though, as he’s more skilled and has a little more experience – plus he’s a former champion.

I think some Chandler KO bets are fun and the +215 odds are also appealing, but Oliveira won the first meeting and is simply the better fighter. As long as he doesn’t leave himself open to unnecessary shots, I like him to sweep the series.

Bet: Charles Oliveira -255

Bo Nickal (-1300) vs. Paul Craig (+775)

Want to live a little? Why not bet on Paul Craig’s absurd price tag? Don’t get me wrong, Nickal (6-0) is the likely winner, as he’s 3-0 so far in the UFC and has racked those wins up in impressive fashion.

The 28-year old has won by early stoppage in all six of his fights, displaying elite striking accuracy and top notch takedown offense. The latter has contributed to four submission wins, so he’s dangerous across the board.

He does lose a couple of inches to Craig (17-8-1), who is eight years older and obviously much more experienced. Craig is admittedly on his way down (or has been for a while), thanks to a rough stretch (1-4 over his last 5), but he’s nasty on the ground (13 submissions) and reminded everyone of what he can do in 2023 when he TKO’d Andre Muniz.

The price and name recognition are nice, but this is Nickal’s match to lose. Rather than bet on the moneyline, though, I’d target this one to finish inside the distance.

Bet: Bo Nickal -1300

Karine Silva (-255) vs. Viviane Araujo (+215)

The UFC 309 main card settles down a bit here, although the odds are at least interesting enough to make you think either side can win. Karine Silva (18-4) looks like the better fighter on paper, though, and she understandably enters as the favorite.

Silva has an inch in height but loses an inch in reach, while she grades out as the slightly weaker striker in terms of accuracy, but is the far better takedown artist. She’s got a very versatile game overall, and she can win in a number of ways. Silva has been mostly dominant, however, with 17 of her wins coming via early stoppage.

Araujo (12-6) is also fairly versatile, but she hasn’t been as dominant as Silva. Her recent form is also pretty suspect (2-4 over her last six), but it’s worth noting she hasn’t been finished early since 2019.

This is a tougher draw for Silva than some may suggest, but she’s still perfectly capable of scoring a KO or submission. It’s probably safer to just bet on her ML at -255, though.

Bet: Karine Silva -255

Mauricio Ruffy (-900) vs. James Llontop (+600)

It’s back to the lopsided pricing, we go. The UFC 309 main card ends with this showdown between Maurico Ruffy (10-1) and James Llontop (14-4). Ruffy is a huge favorite here, as he’s been quite dominant with 10 KO wins in 11 fights.

Ruffy did get knocked out in his only defeat back in 2019, but he’s been on a 5-0 run since and won his UFC debut convincingly over Jamie Mullarkey last May. 

Llontop is equally dangerous (7 KOs) and has never been knocked out, so it could be a clash of styles in this one. He had a lot of success before coming to the UFC, but hasn’t handled the jump in competition very well during an 0-2 start.

I respect Llontop’s talent and pre-UFC resume enough to give his +600 odds a cursory glance, but Ruffy feels like a slam dunk here. His -900 ML price is gross, though, so based on his track record, I’d be hunting for some KO/TKO prop bets.

Bet: Mauricio Ruffy -900

UFC 309 Preliminary Card Predictions

UFC 309 officially starts at 5:00 pm EST on ESPN+ with the Early Prelims, while the Prelins follow at 7:00 pm EST.

Marcus McGhee (-151) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+131)

While the main card has bigger names and some fun matchups, the pricing is incredibly one-sided. That has me betting on all favorites, but I do think there’s some value we can take advantage of before the main card rolls around.

You might be able to tap into that via Martinez (19-5), who is landing 4.54 significant strikes per minute and has 52.83% striking accuracy. His numbers are actually slightly worse than his opponent, Marcus McGhee (9-1), but it projects as a tight matchup.

Martinez is a dangerous striker (9 KOs) and he does have the experience and reach edge here. McGhee comes in as the favorite, however, and he’s proven to be even more lethal by the numbers (8 KOs in 9 victories). He’s looked ready for the UFC level, too, tearing through his first three opponents – all by early stoppage.

I think Martinez is a fine try here at +131, but I respect McGhee’s talent and what he’s shown in the UFC so far. While Martinez offers value, it’s pretty arguable getting McGhee at -151 is an even better deal.

Bet: Marcus McGhee -151

Eryk Anders (-127) vs. Chris Weidman (+107)

Chris Weidman hopes to keep building positive momentum, as he has publicly declared he’s ready to “shock people” come UFC 309. Now 40, Weidman is no longer what he once was, but he did edge out Bruno Silva last March, and the guy deserves credit for battling back from a horrific leg injury that he sustained back in 2021.

Weidman is just 1-1 across two fights since, of course, and he’s naturally at the end of the line given his age. That said, he’s a fun upset pick because of the narrative.

Eryk Anders isn’t anything special at this stage in his career, either. He’s just three years younger than Weidman, has a similar record at 16-8, and has weak form with a 2-3 record over his last five fights.

I don’t have a ton of confidence in either of these guys, but I do want to see Weidman keep it rolling. I don’t mind backing him (lightly) at his +107 price tag.

Bet: Chris Weidman +107

Damon Jackson (-150) vs. Jim Miller (+130)

UFC 309 sure has some old dudes carrying the torch, and this particular fight offers another in the 41-year old Jim Miller. To his credit, Miller is closing in on 40 career MMA wins, as he enters this weekend’s action at 37-18.

Miller is as seasoned as they come, but his specialty remains on the floor (20 submissions). You’d think his form would be bad considering how old he is, but he actually took Bobby Green the distance last April and is 5-2 over his last seven fights.

This run includes impressive wins over Gabriel Benitez and Donald Cerrone, and this line is pretty tight as he prepares to battle Damon Jackson (23-7-1). 

Jackson is five years younger, and he’s just as skilled (15 submissions) on the floor as Miller. His recent form isn’t quite as convincing, of course, as he’s gone just 1-3 over his last four fights.

This is a really even fight, so I’ll just chase the value. Miller is a bit more reliable on the ground, he has more experience, and these guys grade out closely across the board. Give me the ageless wonder.

Bet: Jim Miller +130

Marcin Tybura (-115) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-105)

Tybura (25-9) is the slightest of favorites, as the 39-year old has loads of experience and a strong overall record, but will act as gatekeeper with the rising Diniz (8-0) trying to prove his worth.

Diniz (7 career KOs) has been a handful in his career, slapping everyone around and obviously never tasting a loss yet. He’s also looked good under the UFC banner, as he KO’d Austen Lane and then outlasted Karl Williams.

He’s proven he can hang with the big boys, and his striking numbers grade out better than the guy he will face this weekend. That isn’t to say Tybura can’t win, but he does lose almost two inches in reach and another inch in height.

That said, Tybura is the more versatile fighter and way more experienced. Diniz might end up being a star, I don’t know, but for now I’ll trust the guy who has been doing this for far longer.

Bet: Marcin Tybura -115

Mickey Gall (-135) vs. Ramiz Brahimiaj (+115)

Mickey Gall enters UFC 309 as a light favorite, as he hopes to distance himself from a .500 record. He’s just 7-6 so far through 13 bouts, with almost all of his damage coming on the ground.

He offers no KO upside, and his recent form (1-4 over his last five) stinks. Historically, he simply isn’t a fighter we should trust or be afraid of, although he does have the reach advantage and grades out as the more accurate striker.

That said, I can’t help but lean into the value here. Ramiz Brahimiaj (10-5) has been even better on the ground (10 submissions), and he grades out well by comparison. If this fight is headed to the floor – and we have zero reason to think it won’t – I love the value with Ramiz.

Bet: Ramiz Brahimiaj +115

Oban Elliott (-220) vs. Bassil Hafez (+185)

Most of the UFC 309 Prelims have been tough to call, but Oban Elliott (11-2) gives us another solid betting favorite. He is projected to win here, which isn’t super shocking when you consider he’s undefeated in the UFC (2-0) and is on a nice seven fight hot streak.

Elliott’s form is majestic, even though he only has one win by stoppage in that run. Still, he has an inch edge in height, is the younger fighter by six years, and also is the more accurate striker on paper.

Hafez (9-3-1) is just 1-1 in the UFC so far and offers little KO upside, but he’s yet to be finished in his career. I think he’s going to make for a tougher than expected out, but the lack of upside makes me think he won’t be able to finish the job.

Elliott may not score an impressive win here – and it may end up being hard fought – but I think he gets there in the end.

Bet: Oban Elliott -220

Veronica Hardy (-145) vs. Eduarda Moura (+125)

Last, but not necessarily least, we have Eduarda Moura (10-1) putting her near-perfect record on the line against Veronica Hardy (9-4-1). 

Hardy has a little more experience and grades out better in striking and takedown offense, which makes her the rightful favorite for this one. She also has nice form as of late (4-1 over her last five), although she lacks a ton of finishing upside.

You can’t say the same of Moura. She has nine early stoppage wins, and she can end fights with her fists or via submission. She did lose to Denise Gomes via Decision in her last bout, but that was the first defeat of her career.

Moura’s UFC debut was much better (TKO win over Montserrat Ruiz) and gives me hope for a bounce-back. I like her game and the price associated with taking a little risk here.

Bet: Eduarda Moura +125

UFC Fight Night 247 Fight Card