UFC 310 Odds and Predictions

The UFC 310 odds are live and we are less than a full week away from a massive event going down at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Fights begin with the Early Prelims at 6:00 pm EST and we get the main card at 10:00 pm EST, with an intense Flyweight title bout going down in the main event between Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Asakura.

My UFC Fight Night 248 picks were so-so, as I went 4-3 in the main card and 3-4 in the Prelims. Going 7-7 across the board wasn’t so bad, as I handed out numerous upset picks and even nailed one with Nikolasa Motta (+165) getting the win.

My previous UFC picks had been better, so if falling to .500 is a down week, I’ll take it. Of course, for a big event like UFC 310, the goal is to hand out a ton of winning MMA bets.

Let’s look at the latest UFC 310 betting odds and see how to bet on each fight this weekend.

UFC 310 Odds

Here are the UFC 310 betting odds at the top MMA betting sites.

The main card for UFC 310 is undeniably lit, but it’s also admittedly one that is fairly lopsided from a betting perspective.

Just one favorite has odds worse than -260, so it’s quite possible we get a fairly straightforward card to close out the night. Of course, that’s rarely how these things actually go, so taking a chance on at least one big MMA upset might be worth the risk.

You can roll with all of my UFC 310 picks, or you can check out our free handicapping trial.

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UFC 310 Main Card Predictions

The UFC 310 main card pops off at 10:00 EST. Catch it live via PPV.

Alexandre Pantoja (-260) vs. Kai Asakura (+220)

This is a very interesting headliner. We already know all about Pantoja (28-5), who is as versatile and deadly as they come and comes into this event prepared to defend his Flyweight title belt.

Pantoja has 18 career finishes (8 KOs) and has never lost by early stoppage. He’s red hot at the moment, too, as he’s won six straight and has taken some big names down in the process. The Cannibal is 34 years old at this point, though, so while he’s the much more proven fighter and still has some gas left in the tank, it’s worth wondering if the torch could get passed here.

That’s really the main thing creating interest in the 31-year old Asakura (21-4); the great unknown. He’s certainly an exciting prospect, but he hasn’t faced top shelf competition consistently to this point.

Asakura (13 KO wins) has the explosiveness to end this fight early, but this is his UFC debut and serves as a considerable jump up. He also has displayed a soft chin with three career KO defeats.

While Asakura is a fun YOLO bet at +220, he isn’t the better fighter in this showdown. I remain Team Pantoja until he runs into a more proven commodity.

Bet: Alexandre Pantoja -260

Shavkat Rakhmonov (-350) vs. Ian Machado Garry (+285)

UFC 310 is positively loaded, and you’ll see that right away with the second fight on the main card, which has two undefeated studs going at it.

Shavkat Rakhmonov (18-0) has been lethal on the attack, with all 18 of his fights ending via early stoppage (8 KOs). He is as dangerous as they come, and he’s certainly impressed under the UFC banner, going 6-0 since his debut in 2020.

It’s been quite the ride, as he has dispatched every challenger with a submission or KO so far. His run is even more wild when you look at all the solid fighters he’s dominated, while he has the edge in this one with a three-inch reach advantage and much better striking accuracy than his opponent.

Garry is no slouch, of course. He’s also undefeated at 15-0, is three years younger, and has landed more significant strikes per minute (5.50) than Rakhmonov. That might be where his only edge lies, as he does have 7 KO wins, but hasn’t proven to be nearly as versatile as his opponent.

The edge and KO ability is there to make Garry a fun +285 underdog, and I do think he’s live for the upset. That said, I think it’s a mild reach to go hard at him. Shavkat is the better and more versatile fighter to this point and if this one ends early, I think it’s pretty likely he’s the one inflicting the damage.

Bet: Shavkat Rakhmonov -350

Cyril Gane (-339) vs. Alexander Volkov (+279)

Fans get a really fun heavyweight bout at UFC 310, as the hulking Cyril Gane (12-2) will look to get past Alexander Volkov (38-10). Gane’s brute strength and tough chin make him a tough out here, and he does have the edge in both striking accuracy and significant strikes landed per minute.

That is bad news for Volkov, especially since he gives up an inch in reach to his opponent. That said, Volkov is as seasoned as they come and has an insane 24 KO victories under his belt.

You could forgive him if he had a laundry list of knockout losses after an astonishing 48 career bouts, but he’s only been KO’d twice and that hasn’t happened since Derrick Lewis took him out way back in 2018.

Volkov has been on a heater of late, too, winning four straight and seven of his last nine. This will mark the second meeting between these two gentlemen, though, with Gane outlasting Volkov the first time around via Decision.

It’s fairly likely we’re headed for a similar outcome, as Gane is incredibly tough to wound, let alone take out. He has never been knocked out, either, so Volkov’s most likely path to success may be to grind out a Decision and out-strike his opponent.

Betting on a Volkov KO at +279 has its merit, but I think Gane is the correct call here.

Bet: Cyril Gane -339

Bryce Mitchell (-800) vs. Kron Gracie (+550)

It’s worth wondering if his lack of experience and general time off will be an issue for Kron Gracie (5-2). He’s only fought seven professional fights and just two of them have come in the last five years.

Gracie is also 36 years old, but he was originally 5-0 and got off to a 1-0 start in the UFC. That, and he hails from the famed Gracie family, so he naturally is a God on the ground.

All five of his wins came via submission, but he’s had a tougher time of late, dropping Decision losses to Charles Jourdain and Cub Swanson. The oddsmakers project something similar against Bryce Mitchell (16-3), who is quite a bit younger and has superior striking accuracy.

That isn’t saying a whole lot, though, seeing as Mitchell has precisely zero KO wins in his career. We saw how much of an issue he can have with strikers in his last bout, where Josh Emmett absolutely destroyed him.

Naturally, Mitchell will look to lean on his mat skills, and his nine career submission wins play into him being such a massive favorite. However, this is kind of what Gracie does, so this feels like a huge trap.

I wouldn’t go hard here, but Mitchell is going to find this to be a much more difficult fight than expected, while bouncing back from a KO like that alone is hard enough. I’m Team Gracie in this one, risk be damned.

Bet: Kron Gracie +550

Nate Landwehr (-139) vs. Dooho Choi (+119)

The last bout of the UFC 310 main card has Nate Landwehr (18-5) taking on Dooho Choi (15-4-1). Landwehr is three years older at 36 and has a two-inch reach advantage that could come in handy when noting his nine career KO wins.

Landwehr can inflict some serious damage (6.25 significant strikes landed per minute), and certainly reminded everyone of that with a KO victory in his last fight against Jamall Emmers.

He’s been in stellar form as of late, going 4-1 over his last five bouts, and will walk into UFC 310 as the tentative favorite.

I have so far eaten mostly chalk, as a lot of the favorites on the main card look too good to pass up. I get off The Train here, though, as Choi has been absolutely nasty (12 KOs) throughout his career.

It’s true that he’s entered a rough patch, as he’s just 1-3-1 over his last five bouts. However, he rebounded nicely with a TKO win over Bill Algeo in his last fight, and I think he’s a solid play at +119.

Bet: Dooho Choi +119

UFC 310 Preliminary Card Predictions

The Early Prelims start at 6:00 pm EST and the regular Prelims kick off at 8:00 pm EST, both available on ESPN2 and ESPN+.

Dominick Reyes (-330) vs. Anthony Smith (+270)

The UFC 310 main card is amazing, but the Prelims aren’t half bad, either. This fight between Dominick Reyes (13-4) and the legendary Anthony Smith (38-20) is evidence of that.

Smith is past his prime at 36 and obviously is no stranger to eating losses. He also loses an inch in reach here and just isn’t the impactful striker Reyes is in terms of significant strikes landed per minute.

You really just never know what you’re going to get with Smith at this point. You can typically assume it’ll be a fight that ends by early stoppage, though.

Of his 38 wins, 35 have come inside the distance (20 KOs). He’s no stranger to being on the losing side, as he’s been stopped early 14 times (11 via KO), too. The wins haven’t come as easily as they used to (2-4 over his last six bouts), but we can’t automatically rule out a Smith win by stoppage here.

Still, Reyes was 12-0 before running into a murderer’s row of studs. His first UFC loss came against Jon Jones, who he grinded out a Decision loss to. He then fell via KO to heavy-hitters like Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and Ryan Spann.

Nobody will fault him for any of those losses, but he got back on track last June with a KO of Dustin Jacoby. We need to respect Anthony Smith, but I like what I saw from Reyes and think he could be on the comeback trail.

Bet: Dominick Reyes -330

Themba Gorimbo (-149) vs. Vicente Luque (+129)

Another huge bout that proves the Prelims is just an extension of the main card at UFC 310 has Vicente Luque (22-10-1) squaring off with Themba Gorimbo (14-4).

Luque enters with more experience, but he does give up 2.5 inches in reach and is the inferior striker in terms of raw accuracy. He has the edge in significant strikes landed per minute, however, and has 11 career KOs to his name.

He’s more than just a powerful finisher when standing up, of course, as Luque also has eight submissions. His form of late has been less than ideal, though, as he lost via TKO to Joaquin Buckley last March and is just 1-3 over his last four fights.

Gorimbo is the favorite here, as he’s won four in a row and can be a problem due to his versatility. Even so, he’s been finished three times and simply doesn’t have the staying power (2 career KO wins) Luque offers.

I haven’t handed out many UFC 310 upset picks, but this is one where I think we can access some solid betting value.

Bet: Vicente Luque +129

Movsar Evloev (-248) vs. Aljamain Sterling (+213)

Next up we have an incredibly overlooked bout between Movsar Evloev (18-0) and Aljamain Sterling (24-4). This is in no way your typical Prelims bout, and is worthy of being on the main card.

Evlevo has yet to lose, but he hasn’t been very explosive (just seven early stoppage wins), and none of them have come in the UFC. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t back him, as he’s still 8-0 under the UFC banner and has taken out some solid names recently.

Sterling represents arguably his toughest assignment to date, of course, as the Funk Master is a maestro on the mat (8 submissions) and has gone toe-to-toe with some massive names. Big wins over Henry Cejudo, Petyr Yan (twice), T.J. Dillashaw, and most recently Calvin Kattar all stand out.

That said, the 35-year old Sterling isn’t a major threat to score a KO here, as Evleov has good defense and is tough as nails. I like the value associated with Sterling and think he has a shot here, but Evleov is probably going to stay unbeaten.

Bet: Movsar Evloev -248

Bryan Battle (-225) vs. Randy Brown (+190)

Randy Brown (19-5) has two inches in height advantage when he takes on Bryan Battle (12-2), as well as an inch in reach. He’s also four years older and is statistically the inferior striker and takedown artist.

The recent form (won three straight) is good, and Brown is a versatile fighter with 12 career wins inside the distance. However, he’s been finished early four times and Battle is just as hot (3-0-1 over his last four), just as versatile, and hasn’t been stopped early since his second pro fight back in 2019.

Since then, Battle is 11-1, with his only other loss coming via Decision against the deadly Rinat Fakhretdinov. This should be a fairly close bout, but Battle’s toughness, versatility, and recent form all pass the eye test for me and he grades out better across the board.

Bet: Bryan Battle -225

Chris Weidman (-111) vs. Eryk Anders (-109)

This bout was postponed, but we’re (hopefully) finally getting it at UFC 310. Weidman (16-7) is the slightest of favorites, but he is now 40 years of age and is trying to continue his comeback after suffering a gruesome leg injury back in 2021.

He made it back and took Brad Tavares the distance in 2023, and had true redemption last March in a win over Bruno Silva. This could be the end of the road, though.

Anders (16-8) is three years younger and has a slight edge by the numbers in striking. He does lose three inches in reach, but Ya Boi is a ferocious KO monster (9 KOs) and reminded everyone of that with a knockout of Kyle Daukaus in 2022.

The long form isn’t great for these aging fighters. You can side with Weidman if you want a feel-good story, but I prefer to go with youth.

Bet: Eryk Anders -109

Joshua Van (-150) vs. Cody Durden (+130)

Bettors may want to side with Joshua Van (11-2) out of the gates, as he is 10 years younger than his opponent and is averaging an insane 8.39 significant strikes landed per minute.

The Fearless has six KOs to his name and is 4-1 in the UFC so far. His lone loss since 2022 came this past July to Charles Johnson, but he rebounded nicely with a Decision win in September over Edgar Chairez.

Van has stayed busy, so he will not be rusty when he takes on Durden (17-6-1), who is a versatile fighter, but comes in with weaker form (1-2 over his last three). That said, he did score a submission win over Matt Schnell in his last bout.

This one should be close, but Van’s edge in striking gets the nod from me.

Bet: Joshua Van -150

Chase Hooper (-1000) vs. Clay Guida (+700)

I thought Bryce Mitchell would definitely be the biggest UFC 310 favorite, but he’s impossibly outdone by Chase Hooper, who comes in at an absurd -1000 at some online sportsbooks.

Hooper (14-3-1) is an interesting fighter, as he can dominate on the ground (7 submissions), but at times can appear overmatched. His record says otherwise, of course, and he does have a huge four-inch reach and four-inch height advantage as he prepares to face the ageless Clay Guida.

Guida (38-21) is as experienced as anyone, but he’s certainly nearing the end of the road. He hasn’t fought since December of 2023 and is just 1-3 over his last four fights. He’s bigger and stronger than Hooper, but the height and reach edge should allow Hooper to dominate here.

It’s true that Guida has seen everything, but 11 career submission losses should serve as a reminder that he isn’t always the quickest cat. Hooper should win here, and I think he can get an early stoppage on the ground.

Bet: Chase Hooper -1000

Max Griffin (-120) vs. Michael Chiesa (+102)

There are even more big names on the UFC 310 Prelims, as Max Griffin (20-10) aims to silence Michael Chiesa (19-7). Griffin is three years older at 39 and has a slight reach advantage, while he also grades out as the more impactful striker.

Griffin naturally has nine career knockout wins, but he hasn’t finished anyone with his fists since punishing Song Kenan back in 2021. He’s also been inconsistent of late, going just 2-2 over his last four matches.

Chiesa is the more accurate striker by the numbers, and has also been the more prolific takedown artist. That should shock nobody, as he’s secured an impressive 11 submission wins and has never scored a knockout.

He’s been very beatable of late, going just 1-3 over his last four fights, but he had quite the bounce-back by beating Tony Ferguson with a submission in his last match. I wouldn’t label his recent fights as bad losses, either, as he took Sean Brady the distance and got submitted by both Kevin Holland and Vicente Luque.

Griffin is a tough out, but Chiesa has the edge on the ground. If he can avoid getting into a striking match, I think he’s a fun upset try.

Bet: Michael Chiesa +102

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-600) vs. Łukasz Brzeski (+425)

Lastly, we have Kennedy Nzechukwu (13-5) facing off with Lukasz Brzeski (9-5-1). Nzechukwu has an inch in height and a whopping five inches in reach, while he grades out as the more efficient striker.

Naturally, he comes in as a huge favorite, which isn’t shocking at all when you consider his explosive upside (9 KOs) and the resume he has. He’s just 1-2 over his last three fights, but he TKO’d Chris Barnett in October of this year, and his two losses came against solid fighters in Ovince St. Preux and Dustin Jacoby.

Nzechukwu is quite dangerous and promises to give Brzeski a ton to worry about. He has been KO’d twice, of course, which is why Brzeski (5 KOs) isn’t a totally off the wall upset try. That said, he hasn’t been good lately, going just 1-4 over his last five bouts.

They haven’t been particularly close, either. Two of his losses came in round one, and both were by knockout. It’s a disaster waiting to happen, making Kennedy Nzechukwu stand out as a great bet to win by early stoppage.

Bet: Kennedy Nzechukwu -600

UFC 310 Fight Card