UFC 311 Odds and Predictions

Hopefully you rolled with me when I handed out my UFC Fight Night 249 picks. It was an emotional card, specifically with Mckenzie Dern exacting some revenge with a submission win against Amanda Ribas.

I called that exact outcome, netting bettors a sweet +164 upset win in the process. It was far from my only win on the night, as I went 4-2 on the main card. It was just as good for the Prelims, where I went 4-3 to start the night.

My record wasn’t perfect, but 8-5 is a winning mark and I connected on a stellar upset to cap the night. Want more winning MMA betting picks? Let’s see what I’ve got cooking now that the UFC 311 odds are live at your favorite online sportsbooks.

UFC 311 Odds

Here are the UFC 311 odds available at most MMA betting sites. 

The MMA odds for UFC 311 look pretty darn good, especially for an uber-explosive main card. 

The main event is a much-hyped rematch between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, but that’s just the last of several fights that have jaw-dropping potential.

One of the matches leading into it (Nurmagomedov vs. Dvalishvili) is just as good – if not better – while this main card is stacked with what figure to be fairly even showdowns.

You can roll with all of my UFC 311 betting picks, or you can check out our free handicapping trial.

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UFC 311 Main Card Predictions

The main card gets rolling at 9:00 pm EST on PPV.

Islam Makhachev (-405) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (+305)

We get an epic rematch when Islam Makhachev (26-1) puts his lightweight title belt on the line against Arman Tsarukyan (22-3). The two faced off back in 2019, with Makhachev grinding out a Decision victory.

All Makhachev has done since then is win, as he’s rattled off nine more wins in a row, taking down huge names like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski (twice), Charles Oliveira, and more. He’s as battle tested as they come, and his fight-finishing upside (5 KOs and 12 submissions) make him an absolute terror.

Despite that fact, Makhachev did not finish Tsarukyan when they faced, and Ahalkalakets has only lost by early stoppage once in his 25-fight career. He’s also got fight-finishing ability of his own (9 KOs, 5 submissions) and has lost just once since meeting Islam face-to-face five years ago.

Tsarukyan is younger, hungrier, and possesses the striking edge. However, Makhachev is arguably more skilled, a huge betting favorite, and has been flat out unstoppable. His time will come, but I don’t think it’s coming at UFC 311.

Bet: Islam Makhachev (-405)

Umar Nurmagomedov (-300) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+225)

It’s not crazy to suggest this is actually the best fight on the UFC 311 card. Even if that’s hyperbole, it still ranks pretty high up there.

Umar Nurmagomedov has been unbeatable (18-0) thus far in his career, offering just the latest reminder that this family is embedded in MMA lore. He’s done it in a variety of ways, and he’s taken out a long list of solid names to this point.

His main knock? His lack of fight-finishing upside. He does have seven career submissions to his name, but his game lacks explosiveness and nine of his wins have gone the distance.

At UFC 311 he will get his toughest challenge yet, as he tries to unseat current bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili is a stout 18-4 and hasn’t lost since 2018, but he’s even less explosive than Umar (12 Decision wins).

That said, he’s near impossible to beat. While he’s lost four matches in his career, none have come over his last 11 matches – a run that includes impressive wins over Sean O’Malley, Henry Cejudo, Petyr Yan, and more.

Umar is undefeated and carries the Nurmoagomedov family banner, but this is his stiffest test yet and I don’t know if he can keep that elusive loss at bay forever. He’s a great fighter, but even the best fall down sometimes. I can see it happening here, and the +225 odds to back Merab just feel absurd.

Bet: Merab Dvalishvili (+225)

Jamahal Hill (-120) vs. Jiri Prochazka (-110)

Another great UFC 311 fight has Jamahal Hill (12-2) going up against Jiri Prochazka (30-5-1. One of these things is not like the other, as the 32-year old Prochazka is far more experienced (literally 24 more career fights and 18 more career wins) and as explosive as they come.

Jiri has an insane 26 career knockouts, and while the aging MMA superstar has slipped of late (1-2 in last three), his losses have come against a very good fighter in Alex Pereira. Of course, they also both came via KO – his first knockout defeats since 2015.

All things told, Hill could be a problem for Jiri. What he lacks in experience he makes up for with his own finishing ability (7 KOs). That said, these two guys have something in common; their fighting styles leave them open to vulnerability and they’ve both been KO’d by Pereira.

You could argue either way here, but I have a soft spot for Jiri. He has the experience and explosiveness edge, as well as a mild reach advantage.

Bet: Jiri Prochazka (-110)

Renato Moicano (-170) vs. Beneil Dariush (+140)

You’d think the main card would start softening up by now, but nope. Instead, we get yet another solid fight, as Renato Moicano (20-5-1) hopes to get his fifth victory in a row. He last lost in 2022 to Rafael dos Anjos, and has been on a tear since, most recently delivering a TKO against Benoit St. Denis.

Moicano is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking, but he’s even more dangerous on the mat (10 submissions). The 35-year old has better overall striking and takedown numbers than his opponent, who is just as old and one inch shorter.

The data might lean toward the favored Moicano, but Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) is still a highly skilled mixed martial artist who was riding an eight-fight winning streak as recently as 2023.

Since then, he’s dropped two uninspiring matches to Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. Those certainly aren’t guys anyone should be ashamed of losing to, but the writing could be on the wall for the 35-year old technician, who has hinted at retirement.

I respect Dariush and like his +140 price tag, but if his heart isn’t in it, he’ll be staring down his third straight loss. Both fighters are getting a bit long in the tooth, but Moicano is a bit more trustworthy at this point.

Bet: Renato Moicano (-170) 

Rainier de Ridder (-115) vs. Kevin Holland (-115)

Lastly, we have the tried and true Kevin Holland (26-12), who was once a very tough out, but has struggled to get wins lately. The 32-year old remains a threat to end the fight early (14 Kos, 8 submissions), but he’s just 3-5 over his last eight matches.

Holland scored a submission two fights ago and offers dangerous striking (4.24 significant strikes landed per minute), but he’s no lock to right the ship against a solid fighter in Reinier de Ridder (18-2).

The Dutch Knight is a submission fiend (12 submissions), so much so that he wiped the floor with legendary canvas guru Gerald Meerschaert back in November. The 34-year old could have his hands full with someone as dynamic as Holland, especially given Holland’s three-inch reach advantage.

This one feels like a toss-up, as both guys can end this thing early. I give the slight edge to Holland, who is probably most capable of ending this on the floor or standing up.

Bet: Kevin Holland (-115)

UFC 311 Preliminary Card Predictions

UFC 311 officially starts with the Prelims on ESPN+ and FX/Disney at 5:00 pm EST.

Payton Talbott (-1400) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+700)

The UFC 311 Prelims are admittedly not as exciting as the main card. We do have some good fights still – just probably not this one.

Payton Talbott (9-0) will put his unblemished MMA record at risk when he takes on Raoni Barcelos (18-5), but the odds suggest the obvious; there’s likely only one way this thing ends.

Talbott has been quite impressive early in his career, as he’s 3-0 under the UFC banner and has ended all of his bouts early. He has yet to really step up in terms of competition, but Barcelos arguably serves as his biggest test yet.

Barcelos obviously has more experience and has some KO upside (8 KOs), but at age 37 he is very much on his way down. He’s just 2-4 over his last six fights, and while he’s skilled and got a nice submission win in his last fight, he should be overmatched here.

You’re not betting on Payton Talbott to win, though. Instead, I’d hunt down an inside the distance prop bet for this fight.

Bet: Payton Talbott (-1400)

Jailton Almeida (-420) vs. Serghei Spivac (+320)

It’s not quite -1400, but Jailton Almeida is a sizable favorite and looks like a good bet to win. He’s 21-3 for his career and has a very versatile skill-set, racking up 13 submissions, as well as 7 knockouts.

Almeida has been mostly on point for some time now. His lone loss since 2018 was to Curtis Blaydes, which isn’t something to be sad about. For those keeping score at home, that’s a 16-1 record over his last 17 bouts, with his most recent being a submission of Alexander Romanov.

In this one, Almeida has superior striking accuracy and a one-inch reach edge. That said, Serghei Spivac (17-4) is still a dangerous and versatile fighter that is capable of ending this fight early. He has 15 finishes to his name, with his resume including wins over Marcin Tybura and Derrick Lewis since 2023.

Spivac is a bit more in play than the odds suggest, but Almeida is the more dangerous fighter and in better form.

Bet: Jailton Almeida (-420)

Grant Dawson (-270) vs. Diego Ferreira (+215)

So far the UFC 311 Prelims have been a bit one-sided. The pricing is better for this third match, but we still may want to follow the odds.

Grant Dawson (22-2-1) does give up two inches in reach and is the less impactful striker by the numbers, but he edges out his opponent in striking accuracy (64.45%) and takedown accuracy (38.89%). We know he’s a beast on the canvas (13 submissions), and it’s likely we see that in action with the numbers unsurprisingly favoring him.

Dawson has also been in solid form, as he took out Rafa Garcia (TKO) in his last match, and has now gone 5-1 over his last six fights. He’ll be facing Diego Ferreira (19-5), who has a nice record and was at one time a solid fighter, but is at the end of the line at age 39.

Ferreira is a versatile fighter who reminded us of his finishing ability with consecutive KO victories, but he’s still just 2-3 over his last five bouts. Dawson is the younger and more reliable fighter, so I’d follow the odds here.

Bet: Grant Dawson (-270)

Karol Rosa (-270) vs. Ailin Perez (+215)

The only UFC 311 fight featuring women is a good one, as Karol Rosa (18-6) offers tenacious striking and a tough chin. She’s found a way to grind out 12 Decision wins in her career, so while she’s tough to take out, it’s a decent bet that her fights won’t end early.

I see this one going to the finish line, but I have no qualms betting against the favored Rosa. She is undeniably the better and more experienced fighter, but her recent form (3-3) is erratic, and the lack of finishing ability keeps this one open for a surprise ending.’

She’ll face Ailin Perez (11-2), who pales in comparison when looking at significant strikes landed, but has been the more accurate striker overall. Perez is also the better canvas warrior and she’s been on fire with wins in each of her last four bouts.

I like a lot of the UFC 311 betting favorites, but Rosa doesn’t really move the needle for me. I’ll take a shot at some value via Perez.

Bet: Ailin Perez (+215)

Rinya Nakamura (-460) vs. Muin Gafurov (+335)

There are a few fighters putting perfect records on the line at UFC 311 and Rinya Nakamura is one of them. Nakamura (9-0) is a 29-year old Southpaw with solid striking and the ability to take the fight to the floor with ease.

Nakamura’s versatile skill-set keeps him in play to finish his opponent early, and so far he really hasn’t been threatened. He’s 9-0 overall and 5-0 in the UFC, with his most recent win being a solid Decision victory over Carlos Vera.

His inability to finish the likes of Carlos Vera or Fernie Garcia in his last two bouts could raise some eyebrows, but he’s perfectly equipped to outlast Muin Gafurov.

Gafurov (19-6) has more experience, and has proven to be an elite finisher (17 wins by stoppage). He’s also never been KO’d, so it’s possible Nakamura will have to work for this one. 

That may be so, but for all of Gafurov’s upside, he’s still an inconsistent fighter that has gone just 4-4 over his last eight fights. He’s live to score the upset, but I don’t deem it as a likely outcome.

Bet: Rinya Nakamura (-460)

Benardo Sopaj (-360) vs. Ricky Turcios (+260)

Bernardo Sopaj (11-3) comes in as a hefty favorite, even though he loses a whopping five inches in reach when he faces Ricky Turcios (13-4). 

Turcios offers the more impactful striking, but he’s less accurate and isn’t a threat on the ground. His lack of finishing ability could also be a problem for him here, while he comes in with shaky form, having gone just 1-2 over his last three bouts.

Sopaj has seven career knockouts to his name and is flat out the much more dangerous fighter in this one. It will be interesting to see how he responds after dropping his last bout via TKO (flying knee), but I think he can handle Turcios and find a way to get back on track.

Bet: Benardo Sopaj (-360)

Tagir Elanbekov (-330) vs. Clayton Carpenter (+240)

The last fight with UFC 311 betting odds is this uneven battle between Tagir Elanbekov (15-2) and the undefeated Clayton Carpenter (8-0).

Carpenter has yet to lose, and he’s 2-0 so far under the UFC promotion. He’s scored two impressive submissions in those bouts, giving him six total wins by stoppage in his young career.

All things considered, the versatile Carpenter feels like a value at his +240 price tag. Of course, Elanbekov has never been finished, has more experience, and is inarguably the better floor general.

Elanbekov has eight career submissions and his only two losses were tough Decision defeats. This sets up as a full bout where Carpenter could tire out and give in to the more patient and skilled Tagir.

Bet: Tagir Elanbekov (-330)

UFC 311 Fight Card