UFC 312 Odds and Predictions

The UFC 312 odds are out, so it’s time to place your bets. This card is shaping up to be a great one, and my only hope is I can project a bit better than I did last time out.

My UFC Fight Night 250 picks were not quite on point, as I missed the mark on the main event, and went a brutal 1-4 on the main card. Overall, I went 7-4, however. I will take that record every single week, but the main card admittedly left a lot to be desired.

Still, my picks have largely been straight flames, and the goal is to be even better with UFC 312 closing in. If you need some help betting on the UFC’s next big event, join me as I look at the latest pricing and offer my favorite UFC picks.

UFC 312 Odds

Here are the latest odds for UFC 312 that you can find at most MMA betting sites. 

This is a very tight main card. UFC 312 was already a promising event due to some big names and a massive main event with a title on the line, but the odds make it look even better.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see quite a few upsets on this card, but the big question for bettors is obviously going to be which value bets stand out more than others.

You can roll with all of my UFC Fight Night 250 betting picks, or you can check out our free handicapping trial to get a little extra help with his card, among other sports betting events.

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UFC 312 Main Card Predictions

The UFC 312 main card fires off at 9:00 pm EST on PPV.

Dricus Du Plessis (-210) vs. Sean Strickland (+180)

Sean Strickland (29-6) will have some revenge on the brain this weekend, as he hopes to take the middleweight title belt from Dricus Du Plessis (22-2). That won’t be easy to do, seeing as Du Plessis ousted him via Decision last January.

This rematch is a year in the making, while Strickland has proven his worth by bouncing back with a victory over Paulo Costa last June. Overall, he’s a solid 4-1 over his last five bouts, and offers elite finishing ability (11 KOs).

Strickland is a bit older than his opponent, and Du Plessis has the slight edge in striking accuracy and strikes landed per minute (6.18). Du Plessis can end the fight early with his fists, but is the more dynamic of the two (11 submissions). He’s also coming off an impressive submission win over Israel Adesanya.

I’ll admit that Strickland offers nice value here, and the potential for a Du Plessis vs. Strickland 3 might be too good to pass up. However, Du Plessis is a superstar that already got the better of Strickland and may look to put him in the rearview mirror.

Strickland will put up a fight, but I expect Dricus to get the win and with 20 of 22 wins coming by early stoppage, I wouldn’t be shocked to see this one fail to go the distance.

Bet: Dricus Du Plessis (-210)

Tatiana Suarez (-125) vs. Weili Zhang (+105)

What’s better than a title fight in the main event? How about two title belts being put on the line on the main card? We also have Weili Zhang (25-3) risking her women’s strawweight title belt as she prepares to battle Tatiana Suarez (11-0).

The 34-year old Suarez is the mild favorite, seeing as she’s yet to lose professionally and has proven to be a highly versatile fighter. She’s scored some impressive wins over Jessica Andrade, Alexa Grasso, and Carla Esparza, and she could be on her way to her first championship.

She does come in with a three-inch reach edge, and she also is the more accurate striker and more proficient takedown artist when compared to her opponent. Zhang has been amazing, of course, as the 35-year old is still a very problematic striker to go up against (11 KOs), and she’s just as formidable on the mat (8 submissions).

She’s turned it on of late, taking a Decision against Xiaonan Yan and winning each of her last four fights. That said, age could eventually creep up on her, and the undefeated Suarez is skilled enough to take her out.

There’s solid value no matter which way you go here, but Suarez is a rising star that should be ready to add some hardware to her trophy case.

Bet: Tatiana Suarez (-125)

Tallison Teixeira (-127) vs. Justin Tafa (+107)

It’s not a title match, but Tallison Teixeira (7-0) puts his perfect record on the line when he battles Justin Tafa (7-4) this weekend. It’s Teixeira’s UFC debut, and it looks like he’s being set up for success, while also being mildly challenged, in his bout with Tafa.

Tafa obviously has more experience inside the UFC and possesses solid finishing ability (all seven of his wins have come by KO), but he’s also lost four of 11 matches. On top of that, he’s seven years older than Teixeira, loses a whopping nine inches in reach, and is the worst striker on paper.

Ultimately, this is Teixeira’s match to lose. He has major momentum going into this one and an impressive showing here could launch him to stardom a bit faster. I think he gets the job done and potentially adds to his growing list of knockouts.

Bet: Tallison Teixeira (-127)

Rodolfo Bellato (-170) vs. Jimmy Crute (+145)

Next up is a pretty underrated battle between Rodolfo Bellato (12-2) and Jimmy Crute (12-4-1). Crute is trying to get his career back on track, as he started off at 12-1, but has gone just 0-3-1 over his last four fights.

He got choked out by Alonzo Menifield in his last fight, which was way back in July of 2023. The 28-year old is dangerous (9 wins by early stoppage) and highly skilled, but he could be rusty and he hasn’t been in top shelf form. He also loses three inches in reach to Bellato, and comes into this one the inferior striker by the numbers.

Everything sets up pretty well for Rodolfo, which isn’t surprising considering he is a -170 betting favorite at most sportsbooks. Bellato is even more dangerous than Crute (11 wins by early stoppage) and he’s ablaze at the moment, having won each of his last four fights.

He also hasn’t fought since 2023, but his last bout was an impressive TKO win over Ihor Poteiria. With both fighters dealing with long layoffs, I think everything points to Bellato.

Bet: Rodolfo Bellato (-170)

Jake Matthews (-220) vs. Francisco Prado (+185)

The last fight of the UFC 312 main card pits Jake Matthews (20-7) against Francisco Prado (12-2). The Celtic Kid will try to make it two wins in a row as he battles the 22-year old Prado.

Matthews beat Philip Rowe in his last bout, but has gone just 3-3 over his last six fights. He does have a four-inch reach advantage in this one, and grades out as the more accurate striker. 

In addition, Matthews is a versatile fighter with solid finishing ability (13 wins by stoppage), even though his last win inside the distance hasn’t come since 2023. He’ll be going up against an equally versatile physical specimen in Prado, who has ended every single fight early where he won.

That was before he entered the UFC, of course. Prado is an uninspiring 1-2 so far under the UFC banner, but a TKO win over Ottman Azaitar in 2023 reminds everyone what he is capable of. 

Matthews is a tough nut to crack, but Prado’s tenacity and finishing ability make me wary. I like the idea of taking a shot on him to stage the upset at +185.

Bet: Francisco Prado (+185)

UFC 312 Preliminary Card Predictions

Catch the Early Prelims at 5:00 pm EST on Disney+ and ESPN and the Prelims on ESPN2, Disney+ and ESPN at 7:00 pm EST.

Gabriel Santos (-210) vs. Jack Jenkins (+180)

The Prelims feature some solid battles, with one of them going down between Gabriel Santos (11-2) and Jack Jenskins (13-3). Both of these fighters can inflict serious damage, with Jenkins specifically coming off an impressive TKO of Herbert Burns.

Jenkins has been on fire if you remove his TKO loss via arm injury in 2023, as he otherwise hasn’t lost since 2018. That run includes a 3-1 record under the UFC promotion, and the 30-year old has the skills to continue elevating.

He’ll need to dispatch Santos, who does have a two-inch reach edge in this fight. Santos also grades out as the more accurate striker and more proficient takedown artist, but these two actually appear to be quite evenly matched.

Santos enters this fight with weaker form, having dropped two in a row. Due to his struggles to kickstart his UFC career, I find the value associated with Jenkins rather appealing.

Bet: Jack Jenkins (+180)

Viacheslav Borchchev (-136) vs. Tom Nolan (+116)

Borshchev (8-4-1) is a mild favorite in his UFC 312 fight, even though there is actually quite a bit working against him. Four losses in just 13 career fights is one red flag, but the 33-year old is nine years older than his opponent, and also loses four inches in reach in this bout.

Tom Nolan (8-1) also happens to grade out as the better overall striker in this matchup, while he’s looked good of late with wins over Alex Reyes and Victor Martinez. 

The 24-year old still has work to do to prove himself inside the UFC, but he’s done a fine job of that in two straight wins. That allowed him to bounce back from a TKO defeat by the hands of Nikolas Motta, and I’ve seen enough that has me thinking he can fend off Borshchev.

There are a few UFC 312 upset picks worth targeting, and this is one of them.

Bet: Tom Nolan (+116)

Cong Wang (-515) vs. Bruna Brasil (+390)

The only other fight featuring women is a lopsided one, as Cong Wang (6-1) is expected to dismantle Bruna Brasil (10-4-1).

Wang has a versatile skill-set and has finished her opponent in four of her six wins. Her lone defeat came last November via submission, with Gabriella Fernandes getting the best of her.

That ended a perfect 6-0 run to start her career, and dropped her to just 2-1 inside the UFC. She’s still the more skilled fighter in this bout, and Brasil has been vulnerable to punches (3 KO losses).

A Decision win over Molly McCann is mildly impressive, but taking on Wang is a different beast. I’d follow the odds in this one and either hammer the Wang side or avoid this match altogether.

Bet: Cong Wang (-515)

Aleksandre Topuria (-515) vs. Colby Thicknesse (+390)

Don’t call him thick or finesse, but you can call him Colby Thicknesse. Horrible pun jokes aside, Colby (7-0) puts his unblemished professional MMA record on the line when he goes up against Aleksandre Topuria (5-1).

The 25-year old Thicknesse has four wins by stoppage and has yet to lose, while the Aussie will make his UFC debut and hope to stay perfect. Topuria has proven to be the more violent performance, and while he has been KO’d before, that defeat happened way back in 2015.

Training with Alexander Volanovski certainly can’t hurt Thicknesse, but to this point he simply hasn’t faced the level of competition Topuria has. He could always slip in a knockout and pay off handsomely at +390, but the talent gap could end up being rather clear in this one.

Bet: Aleksandre Topuria (-515)

Kevin Jousset (-220) vs. Jonathan Micallef (+185)

The 31-year old Jousset (10-3) will hope to bounce back from a September loss to Bryan Battle. He got TKO’d in that one, giving him just his third career loss and second defeat by knockout.

Jousset had been on a heater prior to that, winning five straight matches and getting off to a nice 2-0 start in the UFC. One of those wins was an impressive Decision victory against Kenan Song, so there could be a lot of untapped potential here.

He’ll run into Micallef (7-1), who is six years younger, has a two-inch reach edge, and is the more proficient takedown artist. Micallef could cause problems if he takes this fight to the ground, but he lacks experience and will be making his UFC debut.

The odds paint the picture for us here. Jousset is a more seasoned fighter who offers superior striking ability. I think he’s the easy call in this one.

Bet: Kevin Jousset (-220)

Quillan Salkilld (-570) vs. Anshul Jubli (+420)

Two 7-1 fighters face off, while Jubli will try not to get Salkilld in his one. In all seriousness, Jubli gives up a huge six inches in reach here, and both fighters are plenty capable in the striking department.

Salkilld is the far more impressive takedown maestro by the numbers, however, and he has the size and youth edge. In addition, Quillan hasn’t lost a fight since 2021. He’s been on a seven fight tear, with five of his bouts ending early.

Bet: Quillan Salkilld (-570)

HyunSung Park (-220) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (+185)

Last, but not least, we have Park (9-0) looking to stay perfect when he faces off with Tumendemberel (8-1).

Tumendemberel dropped to 2-1 in the UFC after dropping a Decision against Carlos Hernandez at UFC Fight Night 248, but he’s a solid submission fighter who offers a five-inch reach edge in this one.

He’s not the worst underdog to consider backing, but Park edges him out in striking and is plenty capable on the canvas (4 submissions). He obviously hasn’t lost yet, either, while his time inside the UFC (4-0) has gone quite well.

It’s worth wondering why Park isn’t a bigger favorite. All things considered, I’d pounce on him to win.

Bet: HyunSung Park (-220)

UFC 312 Fight Card