UFC 313 Odds and Predictions

UFC 313 odds are live, as the much-hyped event prepares to touch down in Las Vegas, Nevada. Alex Pereira is set to defend his light heavyweight title belt against Magomed Ankalaev, and the two will headline a stacked card at T-Mobile Arena.

The festivities fire off with the early prelims at 5:30 pm EST, with the main card getting going at 9:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

12 fights are presently scheduled, with five on the main card and the other six falling within the prelim rounds of the event. Looking for UFC picks ahead of this weekend’s bouts? I’ve got you covered, just as I did for last week’s UFC Fight Night 253 event. Let’s get to it.

Where To Watch UFC 313?

The UFC 313 main card can be viewed on ESPN+ PPV. The prelims will be watchable on ESPNEWS, Disney+, and ESPN Deportes.

What Time Does UFC 313 start?

The action gets going at 5:30 pm EST with the prelims, while the main card fires off at 9:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC 313?

UFC 313 will go live at the T-Mobile Arena on March 8th, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

UFC 313 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 313 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

The UFC 313 main card looks awesome at first glance. Not just from a sheer name recognition or matchup perspective, but also when you consider pricing.

The main event is very tightly priced, while four of the five bouts are set up to be legit toss ups. There is just one fight with an underdog priced higher than +134, and that is saying something.

While it makes for a fun event, it also could be a difficult one to predict. My picks went 5-5 last time out, so I understand if you want a little extra guidance before betting on UFC 313. 

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UFC 313 Predictions For The Main Card

The UFC 313 main card rolls out at 9:00 pm EST on ESPN+ PPV.

Alex Pereira (-116) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-104)

The main event is a good one, as Alex Pereira hopes to defend his light heavyweight title. Pereira is just 12-2 despite being 37 years old, but he is perhaps the most underrated MMA fighter in the UFC at this point.

That seems impossible given what he’s accomplished, but he’s a pretty light favorite as he prepares to face off with Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1). The record and experience are scary when looking at Magomed, while he also happens to be five years younger.

Ankalaev is not an easy opponent. He has 10 KOs to his name and he’s never been knocked out. He is fairly one-dimensional, however, as he’s never submitted anyone, while he actually only has one KO win since 2022. The finishing ability is still there, but his price isn’t juicy enough for me to buy into him getting it done against a beast like Pereira.

If anything, this one is going the distance, and if so, I’d favor the striking of Pereira. He’s been KO’d once before, but that came back in 2023 against an in-his-prime Israel Adesanya, so it’s at least forgivable. Pereira has been on a tear ever since, winning five straight fights and proving his worth under the UFC banner.

Ankalaev is absolutely in play for a KO or win by Decision, but the matchup favors the current champion. I know it won’t exactly be easy, but getting Pereira at these odds feels criminal and I can’t help but pounce.

Bet: Alex Pereira (-116)

Rafael Fiziev (-154) vs. Justin Gaethje (+134)

I’ll be pouncing on Justin Gaethje (25-5) at his current odds, too. He’s not the favorite when he takes on Rafael Fiziev (12-3), but this is a dude he handled back in 2023, so he knows what he’s bringing to the table.

To be frank, the books shouldn’t be so down on Gaethje. He’s 36 now, but his only losses in the last six years have come against Max Holloway, Charles Oliveira, and Khabib Nurmoagomedov. The Holloway KO came with just a second to go in a five-round battle, too.

Gaethje is going to leave himself vulnerable to a KO, but he is a masher with an insane resume and elite finishing ability. He has the striking edge here, too. Fiziev isn’t giving up a lucrative enough price for me to take the dive. In turn, Gaethje feels like a killer value and I love doubling down with a win via KO bet.

Bet: Justin Gaethje (+134)

Ignacio Bahamondes (-121) vs. Jalin Turner (+101)

This matchup is a bit tougher to call, but I lean toward Ignacio Bahamondes (16-5), who is a little younger than Jalin Turner (14-8), is the superior striker, and has been in good form. He has 11 KOs to his name and is riding a nice two-fight winning streak, with both ending early.

Turner’s record is a symbol of his inconsistency. He has KO upside (10 knockouts) and he’s a bit more versatile than you’d expect, but he is pretty all or nothing. All 14 of his wins have come via early stoppage, but his style also leaves himself vulnerable to knockouts (4 KO defeats).

That could be bad news against Bahamondes, while Turner’s recent form (1-3 over his last four fights) isn’t very encouraging. Turner is forever in play as an upset pick due to his finishing ability, but I’d bet he’s the one who gets taken down in this one.

Bet: Ignacio Bahamondes (-121)

Iasmin Lucindo (-141) vs. Amanda Lemos (+121)

We have just one UFC 313 fight featuring the ladies, but it’s at least a good one, as Iasmin Lucindo (17-5) comes in as the favorite over Amanda Lemos (14-4-1).

Lucindo is light years younger (23 to 37), she has a one-inch reach edge, and she grades out as the better striker. Lemos has been a bit erratic lately, too, going just 1-2 over her last three bouts. She has finishing ability, but she hasn’t ended a fight early since 2022.

Lucindo has been in fantastic form, winning four straight after dropping a Decision to Yazmin Jauregui. That was just a blip on the radar, of course, as she’s now 11-1 over her last 12 bouts. She should be favored a bit more in this spot, as he has nice finishing ability and has youth and athleticism in her favor.

Bet: Iasmin Lucindo (-141)

Mauricio Ruffy (-460) vs. King Green (+360)

Lastly, we have the surging Mauricio Ruffy (11-1), who is a rising star in the UFC. He has 10 KOs in 11 lifetime wins, while he’s on a heater with six straight victories. He did get dropped in his only career loss back in 2019 against Manoel Sousa, but it appears he’s learned from that loss.

Ruffy is a huge betting favorite – and rightfully so – as he is on fire, has looked good during a 2-0 start in the UFC, and also TKO’d Raimond Magomedvaliev in the Dana White Contender Series back in 2023. 

King Green isn’t a scrub, of course. He’s as battle tested as they come and technically grades out as the more seasoned and effective striker. Bobby Green is also much more versatile than his opponent, as he has 11 KOs and nine submissions to his name.

Unfortunately, Green’s experience and versatility probably aren’t going to save him here. Ruffy is an explosive fighter he won’t be able to hide from. Green is past his prime at age 38, too, as he’s 1-2 over his last three fights and hasn’t finished anyone since 2023.

Green is live for the upset based on his track record, but Ruffy is almost definitely winning this. He’s a great bet to stop the fight early, too.

Bet: Mauricio Ruffy (-460)

UFC 313 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC 313 odds for the Preliminary Card

The Prelims are also really nicely priced, with most of these fights shaping up as tough bouts to predict. 

Favorites don’t always win, but Carlos Leal is looking like the closest thing to a lock that you’ll find on this card. I won’t be touching his -775 price tag, but method of victory might be a fun try for that fight.

You can roll with my UFC 313 picks above, or read on for further analysis.

UFC 313 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

Catch the Prelims at 5:30 pm EST on ESPN+ and Disney+.

Curtis Blaydes (-350) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+285)

I am digging the value with Curtis Blaydes this week, as he’s shaping up as one of my favorite UFC 313 picks. Blaydes has an impressive resume to his name, along with a solid 18-5 career record. He is 34 now, but he has enough gas left in the tank to take care of Rizvan Kuniev.

Blaydes owns a four-inch reach edge in this one, while he’s going to be extremely aggressive with takedowns. He’s not a threat to get a submission, but we know he’s a handful on the mat and his 13 KOs speak for themselves.

The striking edge might go to Kuniev, but Blaydes can hang standing up and he’ll have the clear edge on the mat. He is always liable to get KO’d, himself, but I think he can handle Kuniev when you consider the massive names he’s managed to bypass in his career.

Bet: Curtis Blaydes (-350)

Joshua Van (-180) vs. Rei Tsuruya (+163)

Rei Tsuruya (10-0) will put his perfect record on the line when he faces Joshua Van (12-2). These are two young and gifted fighters, with the pricing suggesting it’s anyone’s fight.

I do like the value with Rei at first glance, as he has a three-inch reach edge and is going to be far more aggressive with takedowns. The reach edge and his ability to take the fight to the canvas could give him an edge. That said, Van is an elite striker (8.88 significant strikes landed per minute) and is a rock solid 5-1 in the UFC so far.

His striking hasn’t led to many finishes lately, but eight of Van’s lifetime wins have come via early stoppage (6 KOs). I love his chances to win if this fight stays on the feet, but he can reverse takedowns and finish with ground and pound, just as well.

Bet: Joshua Van (-180)

Armen Petrosyan (-150) vs. Bruno Ferreira (+130)

We have what should be a pretty event matchup in this one, which features Armen Petrosyan (9-4) as the betting favorite against Bruno Ferreira (12-2).

I immediately like the value with Ferreira, as The Hulk is a very explosive finisher. He has 9 knockouts in his career and all 12 of his wins have come via stoppage. He has been finished twice, himself, with one coming last October via submission against Abusupiyan Magomedov.

Ferreira is 3-2 in the UFC so far and he’s a very poised and aggressive fighter. Petrosyan will tower over him in this one and his striking numbers look better, but I prefer the value with Ferreira.

Bet: Bruno Ferreira (+130)

Carlos Leal (-775) vs. Alex Morono (+575)

The biggest favorite at UFC 313 will be Carlos Leal (21-6), as he’s expected to dominate Alex Morono (24-11). Morono is a respectable fighter, but at age 34 he has certainly seen better days. He has a versatile game and proven finishing ability, but he has slipped of late, dropping three of his last four fights.

Morono hasn’t won by stoppage in the last three years, so he feels like an unlikely bet to do that this weekend. Leal has a 2.5-inch reach edge, is younger, and is the far more dangerous striker. He has 10 knockouts to his name and in 27 fights he’s never been KO’d and has only been submitted once.

Everything points to Leal here, but his -775 odds are obscene. I’d target him to win inside the distance or to specifically knock Morono out.

Bet: Carlos Leal (-775)

Mairon Santos (-310) vs. Francis Marshall (+260)

This one should be easy, as Mairon Santos (15-1) has looked quite good to this point and offers explosive ability (8 KOs). He was fantastic in his UFC debut last August, when he took out Kaan Ofli, too. Not surprisingly, he comes in with the striking edge and the odds probably tell us all we need to know.

As deadly as Santos is, I’ll admit that Francis Marshall (8-2) is not exactly an easy draw. Marshall is just one year older, has a two-inch height advantage, and is especially dangerous on the ground (4 submissions).

Santos is the stronger, more composed fighter, however. He has a clear path to a KO win, especially when you see how Marshall got destroyed by Isaac Dulgarian. The odds are just right here. He’s still got a lot to prove, but I don’t see him getting tripped up here.

Bet: Mairon Santos (-310)

Djorden Santos (-192) vs. Ozzy Diaz (+167)

Ozzy Diaz (9-3) comes in as a mild underdog, as he is seven years older than his opponent and is fresh off of a TKO loss to Mingyang Zhang. That was not a great impression to leave in his UFC debut, although he did display nice finishing ability (7 KOs) prior to that.

He’ll get Djorden Santos (10-1), who is a lot younger, but does give up four inches in height and reach. That could definitely aid Diaz, but the striking edge lies with Santos, and to this point he’s been the more versatile fighter.

Santos will be making his official UFC debut, but he did take out Will Currie in Dana White’s Contender Series back in September. He’s won each of his last five fights and should be the aggressor here.

The reach advantage puts Diaz in play as a possible upset at +167, but I’ll take the more skilled Santos.

Bet: Djorden Santos (-192)

John Castaneda (-125) vs. Chris Gutierrez (+105)

This is a tough one to peg, as Castaneda (21-7) had his fight scratched last time out, and now he and Gutierrez (21-6-2) will face off on short notice. 

The odds say it all, as these are two scrappy fighters with good striking ability (both are landing over 4.67 significant strikes per minute). Both of these guys are 33, while Castaneda owns a four-inch reach edge and is going to be a bit more aggressive with takedowns.

Castaneda has nice finishing ability (14 wins by stoppage) and he can win in a multitude of ways, but he hasn’t stopped a fight early since 2022. Gutierrez isn’t nearly as dangerous in the submission game, but he’s the more impactful and more accurate striker. His only two losses since 2019 are against pretty tough dudes in Yadong Song and Pedro Munhoz, too, so we know he can take a beating.

Gutierrez represents solid value at +105. He just needs to avoid Castaneda’s submission game.

Bet: Chris Guteirrez (+105)

The Best UFC 313 Picks

The following list represents our best UFC picks for this weekend’s event:

• Alex Pereira (-116)
• Justin Gaethje (+134)
• Curtis Blaydes (-350)

Pereira is going to lose eventually, truth be told. He’s 37 now, but the guy has been a machine and it’s pretty arguable the odds for this event are a bit disrespectful. I expect a successful title defense here, as he’s just been so dominant and has shown no slip in form.

Gaethje is kind of the opposite. He’s a massive name and elite talent in the UFC, but a KO loss to Max Holloway apparently has people forgetting how lethal he is. He’s also getting up there in age, but he has one more big win in front of him, at the very least.

Blaydes is a bit pricier, so definitely consider targeting a method of victory wager. However, he’s the obvious favorite and seemingly one of the safest UFC 313 bets you can target this weekend.

UFC 313 Card

Check out the updated UFC 313 fight card: