UFC on ESPN 63: Covington vs. Buckley Odds and Predictions

Another week of MMA betting arrives this Saturday, when UFC on ESPN 63 will fire off at the Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.

Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley headlines this event, with the main card firing off at 9:00 pm EST on ESPN2 and ESPN+. The action gets started even before then, of course, with several other underrated fights getting going at 6:00 pm EST in the Prelims.

Last week’s UFC 310 picks were straight flames, and I hope you were along for the ride. I was on top of my game for the main card, nailing the main event and going 4-1 overall. My only loss was a high upside underdog play that didn’t pan out.

For the Prelims, I was perfect, going an incredible 9-0 and ending the night with an elite 13-1 run. If you weren’t around to take advantage of those blistering UFC betting picks, hopefully you can hop aboard for UFC on ESPN 63.

Let’s dive in, first inspecting the latest odds, and then working our way to a prediction for every fight for this weekend.

UFC on ESPN 63 Odds

Here are the UFC on ESPN 63 odds at the top MMA betting sites. 

This is a pretty underrated fight card. Covington is getting up there in age, but he’s still a huge name and this matchup with Buckley should be explosive.

The rest of the main card isn’t exactly lacking, either, as we get big names like Swanson, Kape, and Jacoby. These should be some solid fights, and there is just one bout that is one-sided to the point where we should avoid the favorite.

That’s none other than Sterling, who will be making his official UFC debut after a hot 5-0 start that has included four KO victories.

You can roll with all of my UFC on ESPN 63 betting picks, or you can check out our free handicapping trial.

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UFC on ESPN 63 Main Card Predictions

The main card gets rolling at 9:00 pm EST on ESPN2 and ESPN+.

Joaquin Buckley (-280) vs. Colby Covington (+240)

This is a huge fight that could help either fighter work their way to another title shot. The clock is ticking for the 36-year old Covington (17-4), who is a dangerous finisher, but has been very inconsistent with just two wins in his last five bouts.

Covington has been more talk than bite in recent fights, as he has just one win via stoppage since 2016. He has the ability to grind out a win against anyone, of course, having gone the distance against Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman in recent fights.

Buckley (20-6) could prove to be a tough challenge, as we know he has insane finishing upside (14 KOs) and he comes in red hot with five consecutive wins. His last one was done in impressive fashion, as he took out Stephen Thompson with just one punch.

If you look at the numbers, Covington has the better resume, but everything else leans toward Buckley. He’s six years younger, he has a four-inch reach advantage, and he grades out as the more impactful striker.

Given his fight-ending upside, I find it hard to get away from him. I like him as the straight up winner at -280, but I’d also be hunting down a KO or inside the distance prop bet.

Bet: Joaquin Buckley -280

Billy Quarantillo (-153) vs. Cub Swanson (+133)

This next fight isn’t as exciting as the main event, but it’s still a solid bout between two seasoned MMA veterans. Cub Swanson (29-14) has fought in over 30 matches, but even at 41 he is still live to stage an upset.

Swanson has certainly lost some of his fastball, but he has two KO wins since 2020. His only 2024 match ended in a Decision loss to Andre Fili and he’s become increasingly more vulnerable to KOs and submissions over the years, however.

While I want to credit Swanson’s experience and explosive nature, he’s too long in the tooth to trust at this point. He also loses two inches in height to Billy Quarantillo (18-6) and is the worse striker by the numbers.

Quarantillo comes close to doubling Swanson’s significant strikes landed per minute, he has superior striking accuracy, and he even bests him in average takedowns (1.24 to 1.04). It’s pretty arguable that the 36-year old is nearing the end of the line, himself, but I tend to trust him a tad more in this spot.

All things considered, I think you’re getting the favorite at a steal with this -153 price tag.

Bet: Billy Quarantillo -153

Manel Kape (-365) vs. Bruno Silva (+300)

The main card for UFC on ESPN 63 is pretty good, and this fight is a huge reason why. Manel Kape (19-7) is in his physical prime at 31, and he offers explosive upside (11 KOs) and solid form (4-1 over his last five).

He has an inch on his opponent, but more importantly owns a three-inch reach edge. That could be worth noting when you consider he has the slight edge in striking accuracy and also lands more significant strikes per minute than Silva.

Starboy can end this thing on the mat (5 submissions) just as well, so across the board, he really does look like the correct call when looking at the betting odds. That said, Silva (14-5-2) has proven to be a versatile fighter, and he seems to be rounding into form with four straight wins.

Silva is live for the upset and his +300 price is very tough to go against, but I don’t see how he gets past Kape here. I smell a KO coming.

Bet: Manel Kape -365

Vitor Petrino (-310) vs. Dustin Jacoby (+260)

Dustin Jacoby (19-9-1) is looking to get back on the winning path after getting KO’d by Dominick Reyes. It’s been rough sledding for him for a while now, as he’s gone just 1-4 over his last five bouts.

None of Jacoby’s losses are bad defeats, of course, but the 36-year old is clearly on the way down. He has explosive fight-finishing upside (12 career knockouts), but it’s worth wondering if he can orchestrate what is necessary against Vitor Petrino.

Petrino has a slight edge in reach in this one, and he’ll need it against a guy who almost doubles him in significant strikes landed per minute. That said, Petrino was 11-0 before getting submitted by Anthony Smith, and I like his chances to bounce back.

Jacoby is not an easy assignment, but Petrino’s dominant resume and the age gap make him look like the safer bet.

Bet: Vitor Petrino -310

Daniel Marcos (-185) vs. Adrian Yanez (+160)

Are we about to see the first loss of Daniel Marcos’s career? It’s hard to say, as he’s gone 16-0 to this point and has basically been KO or bust (8 KOs, 8 Decision wins). The good news? He hasn’t lost a single fight.

Marcos is the understandable favorite in this one given his record, but the level of competition he’s dominated hasn’t been insane, and half of his fights haven’t necessarily been super convincing wins.

He gets Adrian Yanez (17-5), who is just as lethal (11 KOs) and actually has a slight edge in reach. In addition, he has more significant strikes landed per minute.

Marcos has been impressive, but every undefeated run has to come to an end eventually. Yanez is a dangerous fighter that shouldn’t be taken lightly. I’m not guaranteeing a knockout here, but I do like the value with Yanez.

Bet: Adrian Yanez +160

Navajo Sterling (-700) vs. Tuco Tokkos (+500)

The last fight on the main card could easily be the best one. We get another undefeated prospect in Sterling (5-0), who to this point has been quite dangerous (4 KOs). He is just 27 years old, too, and will enter with a three-inch reach edge and disgusting striking numbers.

Sterling looks like the rightful favorite, but it’s worth noting that this will be his official debut under the UFC banner. It’s entirely possible he falters with the jump in competition.

Of course, it’s not like Tokkos (10-4) is the toughest first test someone could run into. Tuco has the ability to end any fight early, but he’s been finished three times in just 14 bouts and lost his lone fight inside the UFC.

Sterling is the more compelling talent and a huge favorite. I understand if you don’t want to hammer his -700 price tag, but a win inside the distance looks like a solid bet.

Bet: Navajo Sterling -700

UFC on ESPN 63 Preliminary Card Predictions

UFC on ESPN 63 officially starts with the Prelims on ESPN2 and ESPN+ at 6:00 pm EST.

Michael Johnson (-170) vs. Ottman Azaitar (+145)

To the Prelims we go, where the aging Michael Johnson (23-19) hopes to stave off his 20th career defeat. Johnson proved he still has it in a win over Darrius Flowers in his last fight, but he’s been inconsistent (3-6) at best recently.

At 38, Johnson is nearing the end of his career and simply is not a fighter bettors can trust at a high level. Even if he can avoid his 13th loss by stoppage, he’s not a good bet to win and he’s an even worse bet at this stage of his career to end the fight early.

The same can’t be said of Azaitar (13-2), who is an explosive fighter (10 KOs) and was riding hot at 13-0 before dropping his last two UFC fights. He’s now just 2-2 inside the UFC, with every single fight he’s been a part of ending early.

Ottman offers KO-winning upside, but he’s also displayed a soft chin. While potentially troublesome, this feels like a get-right spot for him. His opponent isn’t as lethal as he once was, and this one sets up as a match where Azaitar can inflict some serious damage.

Bet: Ottman Azaitar +145

Joel Alvarez (-400) vs. Drakkar Klose (+330)

This might be my favorite fight of UFC on ESPN 63, as we get two talented and experienced fighters going toe-to-toe. This lightweight matchup showcases Alvarez (21-3), who is a canvas warrior who has grinded his way to an insane 17 career submission wins.

He is extremely dangerous if the fight goes to the floor, and with a massive 7-inch reach advantage and a five-inch height edge, it’s tough to see how Drakkar Klose escapes this one.

Alvarez comes in with solid form, as he’s won his last two fights and is 6-1 over his last seven. He’s also been rather dominant, with all of his wins coming via early stoppage.

Klose is an interesting matchup for Alvarez, as he has zero submissions to his name, but has also never tapped out in a professional MMA match. He also has fantastic form, winning each of his last four fights and going 7-1 over his last eight.

There is definitely intriguing value with Klose, as he’s a good fighter, is in good form, and has never been submitted. However, Alvarez is quite prolific on the floor and is the more skilled fighter of the two.

Bet: Joel Alvarez -400

Sean Woodson (-150) vs. Fernando Padilla (+130)

It’s always interesting when you have a favorite like Sean Woodson (12-1) who has a very good record, but simply isn’t a dominant finisher. To this point, Woodson has relied on outlasting his opponent, and has just four total wins by stoppage (3 KOs).

That doesn’t mean he should always be bet against, but as his fights get tougher, taking guys out without that ability to end fights early can become a problem. That could especially be the case against someone like Padilla (16-5), who has 14 wins by stoppage and has been especially nasty (9 submissions) on the canvas.

Padilla is also five years younger than Woodson and actually grades out as the better striker by the numbers. He’s been impressive (2-1) with two wins by stoppage in three UFC bouts, too.

Woodson could still dominate here, but I’ll take the early-win upside and the value associated with Padilla.

Bet: Fernando Padilla +130

Felipe Lima (-270) vs. Miles Johns (+230)

This featherweight tilt is another underrated bout, as Felipe Lima hopes to avoid his second career loss. Lima is 13-1 to this point, proving to be a versatile fighter who can grind bouts out or win in a variety of ways.

Lima has seven wins by early stoppage, but has the ability to win in a variety of ways. He got submitted in his pro debut back in 2015, but hasn’t lost since. 

That insane tear – plus the fact that he got his UFC career started off with a bang by submitting Muhammadjon Naimov last June – makes him a compelling bet even at his -270 odds.

Of course, Miles Johns (15-2) is no slouch. Johns does lose two inches in reach to his opponent and he’s the inferior striker by the numbers, but he hasn’t lost since 2022 and he’s about as versatile.

This is a potentially more even match than the odds indicate, but Lima is still the correct call as the favorite. I’d prefer the price to be better, but I can’t get away from him in this spot.

Bet: Felipe Lima -270

Miranda Maverick (-500) vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (+385)

This is one of just two bouts featuring female fighters on this card, but fortunately this is an interesting one. The veteran Maverick (16-5) hopes to keep beefing up her resume for a future title shot, and a big win over a one-loss fighter like Horth (7-1) couldn’t hurt.

Maverick is impossibly seven years younger than her opponent, and she comes in with superior takedown chops. That should surprise nobody when you look at her seven career submissions, while the experience factor gives her an obvious edge.

Maverick’s form has been good, as she’s won three straight and five of six, with her only loss in that span coming against the surging Jasmine Jasudavicius. 

Horth could give Maverick some problems if this fight stays on the feet. She does have some knockout power and her defense could be good enough to keep Maverick at bay. That said, the experience lies with Maverick, and I trust her ability to close the distance and get this fight to the canvas.

Bet: Miranda Maverick -500

Ramon Taveras (-130) vs. Davey Grant (+110)

Davey Grant (15-7) will be up against it this weekend, when he tries to hand Ramon Taveras just his third career defeat. Grant is well past his prime at age 38, however, and loses an inch in reach in this one.

In addition, Grant hasn’t been in the best form lately. He dropped a Split Decision to Daniel Marcos in July of 2023, and is just 2-3 over his last five bouts. His inactivity could also obviously work against him, but his nine career submission wins keep him in the upset conversation.

Taveras is still the rightful favorite, as he is younger and quicker. It’s possible his weaker experience (just one fight in the UFC) hurts him, but his superior activity, youth, and athleticism make him difficult to bet against in this one.

Bet: Ramon Taveras -130

Josefine Knutsson (-230) vs. Piera Rodriguez (+195)

Lastly, we have Josefine Knutsson (8-0), who gives us the only other female-powered match. She will hope to remain unbeaten when she takes on challenger Piera Rodriguez (9-2), who owns a 3.5-inch reach edge and boasts superior takedown offense.

Knutsson does have the edge in striking, at least. She’s inflicted much more damage and has been the far more accurate striker. Despite this fact, the 28-year old has just one career KO.

Fortunately, she has yet to taste defeat, and she’s exhibited strong defense and a hard chin. 

This is an interesting test for her, seeing as Rodriguez has stopped five fights early and one of her two losses came via DQ. She’s also never been KO’d, so Knuttson’s inability to end fights early could be magnified here.

I like what Knutsson has done so far, but the lack of finishing ability is a concern. Rodriguez has honestly been just as impressive, and her +195 price is sublime.

Bet: Piera Rodriguez +195

UFC on ESPN 63 Fight Card