UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg Odds and Predictions

Another big MMA event is upon us, as Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg are set to square off in Mexico during UFC on ESPN 64.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg promises not to disappoint, as this main event features the #2 ranked flyweight fighter in Moreno, as well as fighters like the explosive Drew Dober, Kelvin Gastelum, Vince Morales, and more.

It’s a surprisingly loaded card, which means there is plenty to wager on. If you’re interested in betting on UFC on ESPN 64, take a look at my UFC picks for this event, as well as the latest odds.

Where To Watch UFC on ESPN 64?

Tune into ESPN2 and ESPN+ to catch all of UFC on ESPN 64, starting with the Prelims and including the main card.

When Is UFC on ESPN 64?

The UFC on ESPN 64 Prelims fires off at 4:00 pm EST, while you can catch the main card at 7:00 pm EST.

Where Is UFC on ESPN 64?

UFC on ESPN 64 goes live at the Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico next weekend.

UFC on ESPN 64 Main Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC on ESPN 64 odds for the Main Card, courtesy of the top sports betting sites: 

The UFC odds look pretty good for the main card. There are some pretty big favorites like Tosas or Martinez, but nothing incredibly egregious.

You’re getting good value either way in some of these fights. Drew Dober is a fun underdog by the looks of it at +100, while Moreno is correctly favored, and yet his -235 moneyline is still palatable. 

I’ve already handed out my UFC picks for the main card, and you can check the table and hit those now. If you want to place your bets now, head to the top MMA sportsbooks and use my favorite plays, or read on for some analysis as to why I like each bet.

Want even more help when betting on MMA events? Be sure to check out the best handicappers you can find online and see if they can take your game to the next level.

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UFC on ESPN 64 Predictions For The Main Card

The main card for UFC on ESPN 64 gets going at 7:00 pm EST on ESPN+ and ESPN2.

Brandon Moreno (-235) vs. Steve Erceg (+200)

I find it hard to get away from Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) in this fight. Both of these guys are fantastic at working the fight to the canvas, but Moreno is simply the superior grappler between the two.

Moreno has 11 career submissions and has never been submitted. His striking doesn’t grade out quite as well as Steve Erceg’s (12-3), but it’s not far behind and he does own a two-inch reach edge. Moreno is also just a feisty fighter who is about as good at countering takedowns as he is executing them.

Astro Boy is a viable upset pick at +200 just because he’s capable of winning on the mat – and that’s where Moreno wants to take this thing – but this is absolutely Moreno’s fight to lose.

Bet: Brandon Moreno (-235)

Manuel Torres (-120) vs. Drew Dober (+100)

Drew Dober (27-14) has basically been relegated to gatekeeper status at this stage of his career. He’s also 36 years old and has eaten a lot of tough losses in recent years, going just 1-3 over his last four fights.

The data isn’t really going to help him here, either, as Manuel Torres (15-3) is a good finisher (14 wins by stoppage) and a versatile fighter. In addition, he has a three-inch reach edge, is two inches taller, and grades out as the more accurate and more impactful striker.

Dober still packs a serious punch, which is why I am a little hesitant to write him off. I think he’s nearing the end of relevance in the UFC, but at +100, I don’t mind kicking the tires to see if he has one more big win in him.

In all fairness, Torres did get TKO’d in his last bout against Ignacio Bahamondes. He’d been white hot up until then, but that showed some vulnerability to his game. I do think a KO is coming one way or another, and you’re getting good value no matter which way you lean.

Bet: Drew Dober (+100)

Joe Pyfer (-285) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+225)

There was a time when Kelvin Gastelum (20-9) was considered a really dangerous fighter and was on the rise. Those days appear to be over for the 33-year old, as he is just 2-3 over his last five fights and will be the clear underdog when he prepares to face off with Joe Pyfer (13-3)

Gastelum has the experience edge and did get a nice Decision win in his last match back in December, while a recent loss to Sean Brady brings no shame to his family, either. Pyfer is simply the younger, quicker fighter at this point, and this fight is probably going to stay on the feet.

If that’s the case, it favors Pyfer, who has a whopping four inches in reach and several inches in height. The two fighters are similar when it comes to striking numbers, but Pyfer’s takedown offense is a little better and he’s shown much more explosiveness lately with three KO wins over his last five bouts.

Gastelum is a fun value play at +225, but Pyfer is probably winning this. I don’t know if he’s a lock to get the KO (which would be the first of Gastelum’s career), however.

Bet: Joe Pyfer (-285)

Raul Rosas Jr. (-375) vs. Vince Morales (+310)

Vince Morales (16-9) doesn’t have the most impressive record, and he’s 0-2 in the UFC since arriving after winning the United Fight League title. That hasn’t really translated into success at the highest level, though, and now he’ll be challenged by a talented 20-year old in Raul Rosas Jr.

Rosas Jr. (10-1) is 14 years younger, has had better recent form, and if he can execute his takedowns, he makes a lot of sense as the favorite. Morales does have more experience and is live as a +310 upset pick, but I think Rosas Jr. is the right call.

Bet: Raul Rosas Jr. (-375)

David Martinez (-360) vs. Saimon Oliveira (+285)

Betting against David Martinez isn’t something I can do this weekend. Martinez (11-1) has nine knockouts to his name and he’s never been finished. He lacks experience and is just 26 years old, but the sky’s the limit with this kid and his finishing ability is insane.

Not only can Martinez finish anyone at any point, but he has elite reflexes and quickness. He is extremely unlikely to be caught sleeping, and if the fight stays on the feet he is a very good bet to 1. win and 2. probably stop the fight early.

He has proven to be fairly one-dimensional to this point, but he is a home run threat and will be facing a 33-year old Saimon Oliveira that has a huge reach advantage (6 inches!!), but got KO’d in his most recent fight.

Oliveira (11 submissions) can win if this fight goes to the ground, but he is arguably past his prime and he’s overmatched in the striking department. I think Martinez will prove to be too explosive and a KO is in the cards.

Bet: David Martinez (-360)

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-170) vs. Kevin Borjas (+145)

You’re getting good value in this fight, where Ronaldo Rodriguez is the appropriate favorite thanks to a nice 17-2 record. He’s 2-0 so far inside the UFC and has been a versatile and explosive finisher (12 wins by stoppage).

Rodriguez has won each of his last five bouts and is a lethal fighter than is simply more skilled than his opponent. He does lose three inches in reach here, but I’m not overly concerned about that in this specific matchup.

Bet: Ronaldo Rodriguez (-170)

UFC on ESPN 64 Preliminary Card Odds

Check out the latest UFC on ESPN 64 odds for the Preliminary Card.

The odds are a little more uneven for the Prelims. We still have a couple of favorites over -200, but there are two more with moneylines over -400. I like a lot of the betting favorites in the main card, and that may not change here, looking at these prices.

Even so, there are a few UFC on ESPN 64 upsets to get excited about. You can see who I like in my predictions above, or keep reading for match breakdowns and analysis.

UFC on ESPN 64 Predictions For The Preliminary Card

The UFC on ESPN 64 Prelims will roll out at 4:00 pm EST on ESPN2 and ESPN+.

Edgar Chairez (-275) vs. CJ Vergara (+235)

This is a tough fight to call. Edgar Chairez has a pretty middling 11-6 career record, but he’s a pretty big favorite to edge out CJ Vergara (12-6-1). He does have a three-inch reach edge, of course, and he’s a versatile fighter who can end the fight on the floor (7 submissions).

Vergara is four years older and is coming off a KO loss to Ramazan Temirov last October. He does not offer the same level of versatility or finishing ability on the mat, but he does have seven KOs to his name.

Ultimately, this pick is more about not having much confidence in Vergara than being psyched about Chairez. This is a bet I’d probably avoid, as a finish is not a guarantee here and the -275 odds are hard to stomach. That said, I like Chairez to win and a submission victory isn’t out of the question.

Bet: Edgar Chairez (-275)

Ateba Gautier (-425) vs. Jose Daniel Medina (+325)

The second biggest favorite of the entire slate is Ateba Gautier, who has a nice 6-1 record, has a massive reach advantage (almost 7 inches), and should be able to fend off any takedowns from Jose Medina (11-4).

Gautier has his flaws, but he is far younger at 22, is the better athlete, and has massive KO ability. His lack of experience and takedown defense are red flags in a lesser matchup, but this should be an easy win for him.

I don’t see a logical path to a Gautier upset, but it’s obvious that his -425 price tag isn’t advantageous. He is the pick straight up, but a KO is something we can hunt with confidence here.

Bet: Ateba Gautier (-425)

Christian Rodriguez (-160) vs. Melquizael Costa (+140)

We have a pretty evenly matched fight between Christian Rodriguez (12-2) and Melquizael Costa (22-7). The value is pretty good on either side, as Costa is a fun underdog with three wins in his last four fights.

Costa is a solid striker with some upside here, and there is not a distinct reach advantage on either side that we have to worry about. Rodriguez has better recent form, but I think there is a path to an upset and a potential knockout in this one.

Bet: Melquizael Costa (+140)

Loopy Godinez (-230) vs. Julia Polastri (+195)

The only UFC on ESPN 64 match showcasing females is a potentially decent one, as Loopy Godinez (12-5) squares off with Julia Polastri (13-4).

Godinez’s potential is starting to evaporate now at age 31, but she can wrestle decently and has solid striking. She does not grade out as well on the feet as Polastri, however, while Polastri also has a two-inch reach advantage here.

Polastri is arguably the inferior fighter, but she has solid form of late (4-1 over her last five) and she’s four years younger. I will take a shot at Polastri’s value here.

Bet: Julia Polastri (+195)

Rafa Garcia (-500) vs. Vinc Pichel (+375)

The most lopsided price of UFC on ESPN 64 belongs to Rafa Garcia (16-4), who is a huge -500 favorite against Vinc Pichel (14-4).

Their records are comparable, but Pichel is ancient at this point (42) and is the inferior striker and takedown artist. That said, the gap is pretty mild, and Pichel is not an easy guy to take out.

My guess is we see a lot of damage inflicted on both sides. A KO is still in play, but my favorite bet is for this one to go the distance. That said, if you need to pick a winner, Garcia is obviously a really safe bet.

Bet: Rafa Garcia (-500)

Jamall Emmers (-310) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+260)

Another big favorite is Jamall Emmers (20-8), who has the striking edge when he faces Gabriel Miranda (17-7). 

Both of these guys are 35 year olds and they have a contrast of styles, as Emmers will want to strike (5.30 significant strikes per minute), and Miranda needs this one to go to the mat.

It will be interesting to see how tentative these guys are, or if they walk into a trap. On paper, Emmers’ striking ability gives him a greater edge, while a three-inch reach advantage should help him with landing shots and also avoiding takedowns.

Bet: Jamall Emmers (-310)

Marquel Mederos (-185) vs. Austin Hubbard (+160)

Lastly, we have Marquel Mederos (9-1) looking for his 10th win when he faces off with Austin Hubbard (17-8). Hubbard is five years older and more experienced, while we know he can wrestle and is a tough customer in general.

Hubbard is not out of play here and offers solid value as an upset pick, but Mederos looks like the more dangerous fighter. He certainly comes in with better form, while his athleticism and speed should work in his favor quite a bit.

I don’t know if a KO is a great bet, but it’s definitely in play. You can hunt the knockout with Mederos, but just getting a win with this -185 price is good enough for me.

Bet: Marquel Mederos (-185)

The Best UFC Fight Night Picks

The following is our best UFC Fight Night picks for this weekend’s event:

• Jamall Emmers (-310)
• Marquel Mederos (-185)
• Brandon Moreno (-235)

I like these guys because they’re all good bets to win, but they also have finishing ability and can end their respective fights in a hurry. Usually I hunt for a bit more value via some underdogs, but this really isn’t the card where I feel comfortable doing that.

Parlaying these picks is maybe a bit too risky, but I like these three UFC Fight Night bets individually. If I had to choose one bet, it’s Moreno, who is a really good bet to win and could score a submission.

UFC on ESPN 64 Card

Check out the updated UFC Fight Night fight card: