UFC Fight Night 243 Odds and Predictions

Another big MMA event is closing in, and if it’s anything like UFC 306, then we’re in for some fun. I whiffed on Sean O’Malley last time out, but I did tell you to bet on Valentina Shevchenko and ended up going 4-1 on the main card.

There’s more where that came from, as the UFC Fight Night 243 odds are live at most sports betting sites. It’s time to cash in again, and I’m here to walk you through both the main card and the Prelims for the next UFC event, which goes live at 11:00 am EST at Accor Arena in Paris, France.

So, who should you bet on this week? Let’s first look at the odds for the UFC FN main card and find out which fighters are worth backing this week.

UFC Fight Night 243 Odds

Most MMA betting sites should have the following odds (or close to it) for the main card this week.

This projects to be a very fun UFC Fight Night main card. It’s cards like these that make the UFC the best MMA promotion out there.

Charriere is really the only egregiously priced betting favorite for this event, meaning the top sportsbooks are pricing most of these matches fairly close to the chest.

I’d argue you’re getting solid value no matter which way you go in most of these bouts, and I haven’t even gotten to the Prelims.

While it promises to be highly entertaining, it’s much more fun if you can cash some winning bets. I’ll try to help you do just that with some analysis and my UFC FN 243 picks below.

UFC Fight Night 243 Main Card Predictions

We’ll start with the main event with Renato Moicano trying to upset Benoit Saint-Denis and see why you should like the following MMA picks. Just be sure to get your bets in before the main card fires off at 2:00 pm EST on ESPN+.

Benoit Saint-Denis -270 vs. Renato Moicano +220

We kick off this UFC Fight Night 243 betting preview with the main event, which pits Benoit “God of War” Saint-Denis against Renato “Moicano” Carneiro.

Saint-Denis is a -270 favorite thanks to a dominant 12-3 record. He has one loss since 2022, and it’s an admirable one, as he got KO’d by Dustin Poirier last March.

It’s otherwise been mostly good for the 28-year old France native, as he was 5-1 in the UFC prior to that understandable defeat. He has nine submissions on his resume and has only been stopped early the one time. 

Saint-Denis has the upper hand in age, reach (73 inches to 72), and raw numbers. He enters this bout with the edge in takedown average per fight and significant strike accuracy (62% to 54%). 

That said, Moicano is no slouch. The 35-year old Brazilian, is also a canvas guru, racking up 10 submission wins throughout his impressive career. He’s 19-5 overall and has been fighting in the UFC since 2014. He’s also riding hot with three straight victories, and he’s taken down solid names in Jalin Turner, Drew Dober, and Brad Riddell.

All things told, this is a get-right spot for Saint-Denis. He’s a large favorite because he’s younger, quicker, and more explosive. Both of these guys can end the fight early and are strong technical fighters, but Moicano’s not really a KO threat. I see a submission win coming, but I think it’ll be by the hands of BSD.

Bet: Benoit Saint-Denis -270

Nassourdine Imavov -225 vs. Brendan Allen +185

Next up is an interesting tilt between Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen. 

Imavov is a solid 14-4 with a two-fight winning streak. He impressively KO’d the explosive Jared Cannonier earlier this summer, and his only loss in his last seven fights was a Decision versus Sean Strickland.

That right there might tell you all you need to know about this dude’s grit. He’s a versatile fighter, and he’s also tough as nails. He has never been knocked out, and he hasn’t been submitted since his very first professional fight ever back in 2016.

Imavov is the rightful favorite, but it’s worth noting that he is slightly older than Brendan Allen, doesn’t have a reach advantage, and loses in the raw numbers comparison (if only mildly).

On the other side, Allen is the more experienced fighter, coming in with an elite 24-5 overall record. He had 14 career submission wins to his name, and he’s been ablaze with seven straight wins inside the UFC.

Allen looks to have the edge on the floor in this one, but the striking edge goes to Imavov. I do think there are ancillary bets for Allen to win via submission or this fight to finish ITD, but the best play is Imavov at -225.

The fight just needs to stay standing up, of course.

Bet: Nassourdine Imavov -225

Joanderson Brito -270 vs. William Gomis +220

Should we keep the streak of moderate favorites being the right UFC FN pick? Joanderson Brito is a -270 betting favorite, but he might be the first guy on the main card that I will second guess.

Not by much, though.

He does give up serious height and some reach when he takes on William Gomis. That isn’t everything, but in this match against a Southpaw, it isn’t nothing. To be fair, Brito has been very good. He’s 17-3-1 overall, and he’s proven to be a dangerous finisher (8 KOs, 7 submissions).

Brito is also on fire at the moment, as he’s racked up five straight wins in the UFC. He’s 5-1 overall since arriving here, with his lone loss being a dropped Decision back in 2022. Since then, he’s won by early stoppage every single time.

While Brito is dangerous, Gomis is not to be taken lightly (7 KOs) and at just 27 years old, could be scratching the surface of his potential in the UFC. He’s yet to be KO’d himself, and he’s impressed to this point with a perfect 3-0 run in the UFC.

That nice start includes a body kick KO against Yanis Ghemmouri, but we’ve yet to really see him unleash his power at this level.

Gomis is live to give bettors problems here, but Brito is the more skilled fighter with a higher ceiling.

Bet: Joanderson Brito -270

Bryan Battle -180 vs. Kevin Jousset +155

Can we finally get an upset in the UFC Fight Night 243 main card? It’s possible when profiling the showdown between Bryan Battle (10-2) and Kevin Jousset (10-2).

Battle is the mild favorite here, as the 30-year old has a solid overall skill-set and is 5-1 so far in the UFC. His last fight ended with a No Contest, but overall he’s exhibited a strong chin and the ability to win in a multitude of ways.

If you’re looking for a reason to bet against Battle, it starts with the striking. Jousset has the edge in significant strikes landed per minute (8.23 to 4.52) and striking accuracy (59% to 55%), while he also has superior takedown accuracy (66% to 28.57%).

The sample size is smaller with Jousset, but he handled Kenan Song at UFC Fight Night 233 and he scored his first UFC submission win in his company debut. 

This is all to say that Jousset is definitely a threat to win this and I don’t mind him at his +155 price tag. However, Battle has far more experience in the UFC and I think he has more fight-ending upside.

The best bet is for this one to finish inside the distance, but if you’re betting on one fighter, I think Battle is the preferred pick.

Bet: Brayan Battle -180

Morgan Charriere -700 vs. Gabriel Miranda +475

I’ve been riding the UFC Fight Night 243 favorites to this point, and I don’t think this is where I’ll be stopping. Morgan Charriere looks like the mother of all locks, as he’s a massive -700 favorite.

His record (19-10-1) isn’t imposing, and he gives up height and reach to Gabriel Miranda. He even loses the numbers game when looking at striking accuracy and takedowns per match.

But that’s where the incentive to even consider going against Charriere ends. When you actually watch the fights, you’ll see an explosive striker who has racked up 11 KO wins. He’s also in fantastic form, going 4-1 over his last five bouts, and the most recent one arguably should have been a Decision in his favor.

Charriere also has an iron chin, as he has never been knocked out. He’s dropped a ton of Decisions over the course of his career, but he has loads of experience and is quite simply a really tough out.

That makes him a tough draw for Miranda, who last fought in September of 2023. He’s literally been away from the game for an entire year, and he’s fought now just three times since October of 2023. He did get a nice submission win the last time we saw him, but ironically enough, the fight before that saw him get smoked by this card’s headliner – Benoit Saint-Denis.

Miranda is a solid 17-6, but “Fly” is overmatched here. An insane 16 of his 17 career wins have come by submission, so we know he is likely in trouble if this fight stays on the feet.

I think there are two bets to target here, seeing as the SU pick is egregiously priced. You should be looking at a Charriere KO win, or a Miranda upset. I think you could go the extra mile and find a Miranda via submission bet, too.

However, those bets are mostly for fun and if you want a little more upside. Realistically, Charriere owns this matchup with the fists and he has enough takedown defense to keep Miranda honest.

Bet: Morgan Charriere -700

Fares Ziam -122 vs. Matt Frevola +102

Okay, finally we’ve arrived at a UFC FN 243 upset pick I actually feel good about. I think some of these other bouts are priced nicely enough and are fairly close matchups to the point where you can argue for the underdog.

But none quite as appealing as this one.

Matt Frevola is a fun underdog at his +102 price tag, as the man known as Steamrolla is a solid 3-1 over his last four fights. His last loss came via Benoit Saint-Denis, but he’s otherwise finished his opponent the other three times, with one win coming via TKO against Drew Dober.

Frevola is a solid 11-4 for his career and has four KOs to his name. His chin isn’t the best (three KO defeats), but he has nice knockout power and he’s quite aggressive. 

The bad news is he doesn’t have the height or reach edge here – not even close. Fares Ziam is four inches taller and has a four-inch reach advantage. That could mean Frevola’s nasty striking could be curbed slightly.

For what it’s worth, Ziam has been good in the UFC. He’s 15-4 overall for his career and is a versatile fighter, while he’s a rock solid 5-2 under this promotion. He’s also on fire with three straight wins.

To me, this one is all about chaos. Frevola is older and smaller, but he has nothing to lose here and he can just be an unpredictable fighter. Ziam is well-rounded and he’s avoided knockouts to this point in his career, but there’s a first time for everything.

My favorite bet is not a surprise KO, though. That is certainly one UFC Fight Night 243 prop bet I’d entertain, but Frevola winning via Decision is the top bet. You get a little bit of value for a seasoned striker who averages more significant strikes per minute (3.71 to 2.70) than his opponent.

Bet: Matt Frevola +102

UFC Fight Night 243 Preliminary Card Predictions

Ready to bet on the Prelims? The action officially gets underway at 11:00 am EST on ESPN+, so be sure to submit your MMA wagers before then.

Ion Cutelaba -122 vs. Irvan Erslan +102

Anytime I see Ion Cutelaba on a card I get excited, because I know we’re likely to see a knockout. It is unknown who will get KO’d, but someone is getting dropped.

Cutelaba is a fun striker that does not hold back, as evidenced by his ridiculous 13 KO wins. He’s got 17 wins for his career, so if you think he will win, you should probably just bet on the KO.

Of course, as I was suggesting, his fighting style leaves him open to get blasted, and that’s worked against him in three KO defeats. Striking is his game, too, so his inability to consistently stave off takedowns or always inflict his will has also led to four submission losses.

Naturally, Cutelaba isn’t the easiest betting favorite to trust. His form isn’t good lately, either, as he’s just 1-4 over his last five matches. Two of those have come via submission, and another was TKO thanks to a flying knee and punches. 

We can’t ignore his big TKO win over Tanner Boser in April of 2023, though, while The Hulk has the edge in experience against his opponent, Irvan Erslan.

Erslan hasn’t fought quite as much as Cutelaba and this is his UFC debut, but he’s still not a punk. The Croatian is 14-3 in his career with 10 of his wins coming via knockout. He was put on ice not too long ago and he’s been a little inconsistent (2-2) over his last four fights, but I still think he offers compelling value here.

For the most part, Erslan has displayed a solid chin and he obviously has the type of KO power someone like Cutelaba could get in trouble with. Like I said, I think this fight ends with a knockout; it just comes down to who has the tougher chin.

Betting on this one ending via TKO/KO and/or inside the distance is suggested. But I love the value with Erslan if you just want a straight up pick.

Bet: Irvan Erslan +102

Oumar Sy -480 vs. Da Woon Jung +350

MMA bettors get another fun one in this second UFC Fight Night 243 Prelims match, as the undefeated Oumar Sy (10-0) goes up against Da Woon Jung (15-5-1).

Sy is a heavy favorite despite preparing for just his second ever UFC match. He made a solid debut with a face crank submission against George Tokkos this past May, though, and he’ll aim to keep the ball rolling here.

This is a fighter with a well-rounded game, as he has four KO wins, but also four submissions. He has a sizable reach advantage (83 to 78.5), and it will be needed against Sseda, who has scored 11 KO victories in his career.

Woon Jung has more experience as a whole, but he’s fallen flat in recent fights. He’s been in the UFC since 2019, but after a promising 4-0-1 start in the promotion, he’s faded with three straight losses.

His recent form is the major cause for concern here. In theory, Woon Jung’s experience and KO ability make him a threat and at +350, we should show interest. However, Sy is in better form and should be able to handle everything Woon Jung throws his way.

Bet: Oumar Sy -480

Ludovit Klein -900 vs. Roosevelt Roberts +575

The biggest UFC Fight Night 243 favorite is Ludovit Klein, who has absurd -900 odds for his showdown with Roosevelt Roberts.

Klein is quite the force. He has nine career knockouts and eight submissions to his name, and he’s gone 22-4. He’s still just 29 and has been in impeccable form, with no losses in six straight bouts.

He’s had some solid wins over Thiago Moises and Ignacio Bahamondes, while his most explosive win was a memorable TKO of A.J. Cunningham. 

Klein looks the part of a huge favorite, but Roosevelt Roberts isn’t a scrub. He’s 12-4 through 16 matches, and the 30-year old has a versatile skill-set. He also is much taller with a slight reach advantage.

Roosevelt has proven to be fairly dependable (1 KO loss), but I do think he could be in trouble here. After a solid start to his career, three of his four career defeats have come since 2020. Two of them were early finishes across his last four fights, too.

It’s been too long since Roberts did anything of merit at a high level in MMA. His career record is decent, but he’s just 4-3 in the UFC.

Ultimately, Klein is the more explosive fighter and he’s a huge favorite for a reason. 

Bet: Ludovit Klein -900

Ailin Perez -260 vs. Darya Zheleznyakova +215

A more reasonably priced match has Ailin Perez as a -260 favorite against Darya Zheleznyakova. 

Perez is not the most stable favorite on this card, as she has a serious height disadvantage and loses two inches in reach to her opponent. 

Darya Zheleznyakova is a dangerous fighter, too. She’s 9-1 through 10 career fights, scoring a solid five KO wins in the process. She’s proven to be rather tough, as she has scored four more wins via Decision and has only been stopped once.

That loss was fairly recent (November of 2022), but she’s otherwise been on top of her game and got her UFC career off to a nice start by outlasting Montserrat Rendon last March.

I am riding the UFC’s new darling here. Darya Zheleznyakova has a bright future if she plays her cards right, and so far she’s looked pretty good. After surviving a tough debut, I think she adds to her resume with a huge upset here.

Bet: Darya Zheleznyakova +215

Taylor Lapilus -370 vs. Vince Morales +285

Bettors can back another favorite in Taylor Lapilus, who has a three-inch reach edge when he takes on Vince Morales. He also comes in with a clear edge in strikes landed per minute and overall striking accuracy, while he’s also graded out as the superior takedown artist.

When looking at his UFC Fight Night 243 odds, the math does seem to check out.

Lapilus is a stout 20-4 and has proven to be a well-rounded fighter with four KO wins and six submissions. He really makes his money by outlasting his opponents, of course, as he has worn them down en route to 10 Decision victories.

That’s been his method of victory in most of his recent wins, as he edged out the always tough Cody Stamann in June and has gone 7-1 over his last eight fights.

Morales is a respectable 16-7, and he also sports a versatile offensive attack. He hasn’t been quite as dominant or as tough as his opponent, but he’s still a threat.

After an unsuccessful 3-5 UFC run the first time around, Morales improved his game under other promotions. He’s riding hot with five straight wins, with four coming via early stoppage.

The stellar form makes Morales an interesting bet, but we haven’t seen him get it done consistently at this level. Lapilus looks like the way better bet.

Bet: Taylor Lapilus -370

Victor Altamirano -122 vs. Daniel Barez +102

Daniel Barez is another interesting UFC Fight Night 243 upset pick. He offers solid +102 odds and he’s a seasoned fighter that has the ability to end any fight early in a number of ways.

His recent form is encouraging. Barez is a solid 16-6 overall for his career, but he’s also gone 4-1 over his last five bouts. He’d won each of those four fights via early stoppage, but it’s obviously worth noting that the second he got to the UFC, he got choked out by Jafel Filho.

Filho is a submission guru, but that still wasn’t the way to make your UFC debut. It’s also worth noting Barez has a height and reach disadvantage when he goes up against Victor Altamirano.

Altamirano is a little younger, too, and he’s a solid 12-4. He’s never been knocked out, but El Magnifico is trending in the wrong direction. He’s lost two straight fights and is just 2-3 over his last five.

This is a close one to call, but I like Barez. I think he learned some valuable lessons from a failed UFC debut, but the guy he was prior to that was very dangerous. I love taking a chance on an aggressive fighter at plus money.

Bet: Daniel Barez +102

Bolaji Oki -210 vs. Chris Duncan +175

Bolaji Oki is a moderate favorite thanks to a slight reach edge. The Zulu Warrior is a physical specimen that has gone 9-1 across 10 bouts and has KO’d his opponent in half of them.

Oki has serious knockout power, even though we didn’t see it delivered in his UFC debut. He did still earn the Decision win over Timothy Cuamba last February, who to his credit has never been KO’d in his career.

I think that a big KO could arrive this weekend, as Oki does not back down from anyone and keeps pressing. Chris Duncan (11-2) is no scrub and has KO upside of his own, so one way or another, we’re getting a fun one.

Oki getting KO’d just doesn’t seem like the plausible route here, though. It’s either going the distance and probably favoring the stronger Oki, or he’s scoring his first UFC knockout.

Bet: Bolaji Oki -210

Jacqueline Cavalcanti -198 vs. Nora Cornolle +168

Last, but not necessarily least, we have Jacqueline Cavalcanti favored to outlast Nora Cornolle. 

The Portuguese fighter is 7-1 overall and quite gritty, having scored three KO wins and four Decisions. She isn’t going to win on the canvas, but she can dominate on her feet and is not likely to be stopped early.

Her UFC run has been solid so far, as she’s 2-0 under the promotion and has won five fights in a row, overall. She’s still chasing her first big knockout in the UFC, and I wouldn’t be shocked if she gets it here.

Cavalcanti is seven years younger than her opponent, and she’ll have the height and reach edge. Cavalcanti also doubles up Cornolle’s significant strikes landed per minute, so anyway you look at it, she figures to be the aggressor.

Of course, Cornolle hasn’t been a pushover. She also has just one loss to her name, and it came all the way back in 2021. As luck would have it, it was against Cavalcanti! 

She’s been red hot since then with eight straight victories, however, with six coming via KO. I do see why Cavalcanti is favored. She’s younger, it’s arguable she’s the better fighter at this stage of their careers, and she won the first match.

Did she, though? I thought it was very close, so with Cornolle now more seasoned and more dangerous, I like her chances.

I think Cornolle matches up well here, and the fact that she hasn’t lost since that match back in 2021 is a testament to her talent and drive. Age isn’t on her side, but she’s fun to root for as she tries to keep it rolling in front of her home crowd.

Bet: Nora Cornolle +168

UFC Fight Night 243 Fight Card