UFC Fight Night 246 Odds and Predictions

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Another big MMA event arrives this weekend, as UFC Fight Night 246 touches down at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Canada on November 2nd. The action gets started on ESPN+ with the Prelims at 4:00 pm EST, while the main card drops at 7:00 pm EST.

Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi headline this supremely loaded event, which is incredibly underrated despite following up UFC 308.

I sat out last week’s MMA betting preview with an illness, but at my last stop (UFC Fight Night 245) I handed out several winners. I whiffed on the main event, but ended up going 2-3 on the main card and 4-2 for the Prelims. 

All things considered, a 6-5 run will do, and the aim is to stay above .500 once again going into this week’s event. The gloves touch at 4:00 pm on ESPN+ on November 2nd, so get your bets in early.

You can lean on some of the top sports betting handicappers to assist you in your wagering, or read on for my top MMA picks.

UFC Fight Night 246 Odds

Here are the UFC FN 246 odds at the top MMA betting sites. 

As I was saying, this card feels super overlooked. I think that has everything to do with the fact that it’s sandwiched in between UFC 308 and the return of Jon Jones at UFC 309. 

That might be true, but make no mistake about it, there is money to be made when the lights go up in Canada this weekend. Better yet, the main card is not only loaded with great matchups, but also terrific pricing.

Mike Malott is your biggest UFC Fight Night 246 favorite, and his odds are only coming in at -250. Nobody else is higher than -200, so we’re looking at a pretty evenly matched card to close out the night.

But how do you actually bet on these matches? I’ll walk you through each fight and give you my preferred pick, as well as some analysis.

UFC Fight Night 246 Main Card Predictions

The UFC on ESPN+ 104 main card fires off at 7:00 pm EST on ESPN+. Here’s every match, the right odds, and my winner prediction.

Brandon Moreno (-154) vs. Amir Albazi (+134)

The main event goes down between Brandon Moreno (21-8) and Ami Albazi (17-1). Moreno is favored, even though he’s lost two in a row and is just 3-3 over his last six fights.

Moreno hasn’t been dominated in those losses, of course. He’s dropped bouts to big names like Brandon Royval, Alexandre Pantoja, and Deiveson Figueiredo – hardly defeats we should hold against him. 

For what it’s worth, Moreno has a very versatile skill-set, winning 16 of 21 fights via early stoppage (11 by submission). In this bout, he’ll have the height and reach edge, and the numbers do favor him in terms of significant strikes landed per minute, strike accuracy, and takedown accuracy.

Albazi is correctly the underdog when you look at the data, but the line is pretty tight for good reason. The Prince has just one loss to his name, and he’s never been finished. He’s also plenty versatile, with nine submissions on his resume. He’s also been pretty dominant in the UFC (5-0) and hasn’t tasted defeat since 2019.

Moreno is the popular pick and he’s safer, but Albazi is on the rise. I like his price at +134 to shoot for a fun upset on the main card.

Bet: Amir Albazi +134

Erin Blanchfield (-141) vs. Rose Namajunas (+121)

This one is a battle of young versus old. Erin Blanchfield (12-2) is just 25, and she’ll look to earn even more stripes in the UFC by taking on the 32-year old Namajunas (14-6).

Namajunas is one tough customer, as he’s been stopped early just twice in his entire career. She’s rebounded nicely with two straight wins, so one could argue she has positive momentum in her favor. What she does not have in her favor, however, is reach or striking numbers.

Rose should have the edge in this one on the ground, but it’s not as though Blanchfield is some scrub in that regard. Blanchfield still averages 2.05 takedowns per fight, which exceeds Rose’s output on the mat.

That said, I find it tough to trust Blanchfield in this one. Namajunas is a little more experienced, and she isn’t one to be out-worked. Blanchfield took a small step back in a tough Decision loss to Manon Fiorot, so as long as she doesn’t surprise with a choke out, I think Rose is a good value bet to grind out a Decision win.

Bet: Rose Namajunas +121

Jhonata Diniz (-160) vs. Derrick Lewis (+140)

It’s weird to think of Derrick Lewis (28-12) as an underdog, but at age 39, his best days are long behind him. He did score a nice TKO win over Rodrigo Nascimento this past May, but he’s otherwise run hot and cold, going 3-5 over his last eight bouts.

Still, when his game is on point, he can still finish fights. Each of his last five wins are via early stoppage, so if you do think Lewis still has it in him, you better believe a Decision is not the way to go.

Lewis is live to stage the upset, but this is the first fight on the main card where I won’t be seeking value. There’s no denying the experience factor, but Jhonata Diniz (8-0) looks like a problem.

Seven of his eight career victories have come via KO, and he’s so far 2-0 under the UFC banner with one KO. I think he’s proven he can hang with someone like Lewis, and judging by Lewis’s 7 career knockout defeats, the chin is soft enough for Diniz to leave a lasting impression.

Need more? The sample size is small, but Diniz does edge Lewis out in significant strikes landed per minute, as well as striking accuracy. He’s also six years younger. I think everything piles together to allow Diniz to score a big win and vault his name to the next level.

Bet: Jhonata Diniz -160

Caio Machado (-157) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+137)

The man known as Bigfoot will look to bounce back from two straight losses. Caio Machado is a favorite despite not having the best form, and not winning a bout since August of 2023.

Of course, he was 8-1-1 before this mini drought, and with two straight Decision losses, it’s not like he was getting KO’d left and right. He’s also a talented fighter, so it makes sense to consider backing him to get back on track.

In the interest of considering both sides, it’s worth noting that he does lose three inches in reach to Brendson Ribeiro. The Gorilla is 15-7 with nine career KO wins, and he’s scored three of those over his last five fights. His recent form isn’t any better, though, as he’s also dropped two in a row.

For me, it comes down to talent and accuracy. Machado is the better overall fighter, and he’s displayed far better striking in the UFC thus far. It should be close, but I like Machado at his -157 price.

Bet: Caio Machado -157

Marc-Andre Barriault (-200) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+170)

We have our first betting favorite north of -200 on the main card, with Marc-Andre Barriault (16-8) projected to get the win. He’s a little bit older than his opponent and loses an inch in reach, but he grades out as the superior striker.

Barriault’s recent form isn’t impressive. He’s lost two in a row and in his last bout he got KO’d by Joe Pyfer. Still, he has early stoppage upside (10 KOs) and can inflict a lot of damage in a hurry.

On the other side is Stoltzfus (15-6), who has better takedown numbers and has slightly better striking accuracy. For his career, he hasn’t been nearly the KO threat his opponent has, but he’s proven to be a bit more versatile and dangerous on the mat.

All things told, this is a mismatch. But the reality is that I fear Barriault’s power and strength more than Stoltzfus on the canvas. Obviously if the fight goes there it’s over, but I think Barriault has a shot at a finish here.

Bet: Marc-Andre Barriault -200

Mike Malott (-250) vs. Trevin Giles (+210)

The UFC Fight Night 246 main card wraps up with Mike Malott (10-2-1) as the biggest betting favorite. He comes in with a slight edge in height, but loses an inch in reach when matching up with Trevin Giles (16-6).

Malott averages 3.83 significant strikes per minute, but both of these guys are solid strikers. Both have solid takedown accuracy, too, but Malott averages nearly triple the takedowns (3.04) per fight that Giles does.

Proper did get messed up in a TKO loss to Neil Magny his last time out, but he’d been on a heater (6 straight wins) before slipping up. He is a major submission threat and he has a very versatile skill-set, so it’ll be awfully hard to confidently bet against him in this one.

Giles is also pretty versatile, but he’s been stopped early six times in his career. His recent form is also pretty suspect, as he is just 2-4 over his last six bouts. I don’t hate Giles here, but Malott feels like the safer bet.

All things considered, -250 is not a terrible price. That said, I might hunt for an early stoppage win for Malott, seeing as Giles has never lost via Decision.

Bet: Mike Malott -250

UFC Fight Night 246 Preliminary Card Predictions

Get your bets in early for the UFC Fight Night 246 preliminary card, as the first fight gets going at 4:00 pm EST on ESPN+. Here’s the latest odds and my top picks for each bout.

Pedro Munhoz (-116) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (-104)

To the Prelims we go, where Pedro Munhoz (20-9) is a very slight favorite when he takes on Zahabi (11-2). The latter has the better record, and he’ll also have the edge in height and reach in this one.

I’m not so sure that will matter, though. Munhoz is a monster, as he’s never been stopped early, and he seems to be one of the toughest guys on the UFC roster. He’s also quite versatile, and he’ll walk into his one with slightly superior striking.

His finishing ability has dried up in recent years, which would be a bit of a downgrade to his favorite status, plus his recent form (1-4-1) is obviously not great. He’s lost to some massive names, however, and all of those losses have gone the distance.

Zahabi is on the rise after winning his last four bouts, and he does bring some KO power to the table. Munhoz is getting a bit long in the tooth, too, but I can’t seem to bring myself to go against him. I think he grinds out another Decision win.

If you don’t agree, the second best bet is for this one to simply go the distance, as these guys have one early stoppage between the both of them in terms of losses.

Bet: Pedro Munhoz -116

Jasmine Jasudavicius (-220) vs. Ariane da Silva (+185)

The 35-year old Jasudavicius will look to add to her 11-3 record this weekend, as she faces the slightly more battle tested Ariane da Silva.

Jasudavicius holds a slight edge in height and reach, and will walk into this one with superior striking accuracy. While she can inflict damage (3.79 significant strikes landed per minute), she only has two career KO wins.

On the bright side, Jasudavicius has never been finished early, and he’s riding a solid wave with wins in four of her last five bouts. Her lone defeat in that span was a dropped Decision to the stellar Tracy Cortez.

Silva has displayed a softer chin (4 KO losses), but she’s quite versatile and does offer superior takedown ability. She’s also had solid form, winning three of her last four fights.

I think it’s a closer than expected fight, but I still like Jasudavicius. She’s as tough as they come, and she’s on fire at the moment. She’s working her way to big things, and I don’t see her stopping now.

Bet: Jasmine Jasudavicius -220

Charles Jourdain (-115) vs. Victor Henry (-105)

A slight favorite in this one, Charles Jourdain (15-8-1) does have the advantage in youth, height, and reach. We know he can mess dudes up (8 career KOs), but he’s a fairly versatile fighter who can also end this bout on the mat.

Jourdain averages 5.48 significant strikes landed per minute, but that oddly pales in comparison to his opponent (8.34!). Victor Henry is significantly older than Jourdain, but he’s actually fought more and has proven to be just as lethal of a fighter.

He’s also thrived in his short time in the UFC, going 2-0-1 with his last fight producing a TKO win over Rani Yahya. Henry feels like a very dangerous guy to bet against, as he has a tight window with his career probably winding down, but his recent form is promising.

Even more problematic is the fact that he’s never been finished early across 30 fights. All things said, Henry feels like a solid value and I think he’s a solid bet to score a KO.

Bet: Victor Henry -105

Youssef Zalal (-235) vs. Jack Shore (+200)

Another really fun fight goes down between Youssef Zalal (15-5-1) and Jack Shore (17-2), which further adds to this underrated card. I was a little surprised at the odds for this bout, especially seeing as Shore is an experienced, versatile fighter.

He’s coming off a TKO loss in May, but that was the first KO defeat of his entire career. He’s a threat to end the fight early on the ground (9 submissions) and he enters with superior striking numbers.

I definitely want to pay mind to Shore, as he has a good record and has been rather tough to take out up until recently. However, he may be overmatched against Zalal, who has 12 career early stoppage wins and has never been finished.

He’s also ablaze at the moment, having won each of his last five fights. Zalal is also 2-0 under the UFC banner, scoring back-to-back submission wins. Don’t be shocked if he makes it three for three.

Bet: Youssef Zalal -235

Rodrigo Nascimento (-121) vs. Alexandr Romanov (+101)

Nascimento will hope to brush off his latest defeat, which was a rough TKO by the hands of ageless wonder, Derrick Lewis. There’s no shame in a loss to Lewis, and for what it’s worth, it was just Nascimento’s second loss of his career.

He’d otherwise been rolling in the UFC, going 4-1-1 before that, with his only other loss being a respectable KO defeat by the hands of Chris Daukaus. Of course, the picture being painted here is that Nascimento might not have the strongest of chins, plus with just two career knockouts, he may not have the finishing power needed to last in the heavyweight division.

You can’t say that of Alexandr Romanov. He loses five inches in reach, but he’s a dangerous fighter who offers both power (6 KOs) and the ability to end the fight on the canvas (9 submissions).

His recent form is awful (1-3 over his last four fights), but I think he’s prime to bounce back in this one. I’ll take the value with Romanov.

Bet: Alexandr Romanov +101

Serhiy Sidey (-155) vs. Garrett Armfield (+135)

The UFC Fight Night 246 card may start losing its lust here, although to be fair, I am working my way backward. Sidey and Armfield will actually get the festivities going for us early, and in their defense, they offer a pretty even bout.

On paper, it’s Sidey’s to lose, as he’s 10-2 overall and comes in with a two-inch reach edge and will tower over Armfield. Armfield does have the striking advantage by the numbers, though, while he’s racked up six career knockouts and has yet to be KO’d.

Sidey (7 KOs) is pretty dangerous, though, and he also has never been finished in any regard. He did drop his UFC debut to Ramon Taveras, but prior to that he’d been on quite the tear and even TKO’d Taveras in his previous match in Dana White’s Contender Series.

Overall, he’s the more explosive fighter between the two. There’s a decent chance this fight simply goes the distance, but if it does end early, I think Sidey will make it happen.

Bet: Serhiy Sidey -155

Cody Gibson (-185) vs. Chad Anheliger (+160)

There are a lot of fights between these two veterans, with Gibson alone accounting for 21 wins and 31 total bouts. Anheliger is just 13-7 for his career, and both fighters will be looking to add to their age-37 resumes.

Gibson enters as the better striker per minute, while Anheliger edges him out slightly in terms of striking accuracy. Gibson also has the edge on the mat, but he’s found himself in trouble (4 submission losses) as well.

The skill-set for these fighters favors Gibson. Neither of these guys have ever been KO’d, but they’re both fairly versatile. Both are also a bit vulnerable on the mat, but Gibson’s career suggests he’s the one we should trust if that’s where the fight goes.

Bet: Cody Gibson -185

Jamey-Lyn Horth (-205) vs. Ivana Petrovic (+175)

Last, and probably least, we have Horth favored to edge out Petrovic. Horth (6-1) has proven to be rather skilled and extremely tough. The 34-year old Canadian did lose her most recent fight, but it came via Decision against Veronica Hardy.

Horth had been doing a nice job at ending fights early (5 early stoppages in six bouts), so it is worth wondering if she picks up where she left off before her loss.

On the other side is Petrovic (7-1), who has a better record and also has the edge in height (one inch) and reach (four inches). Her striking numbers aren’t as good, but she has exhibited superior takedown ability.

Petrovic has also proven to be just as versatile, and her lone loss came via Decision against Luana Carolina in 2023. I really don’t see major weaknesses or a clear edge for either fighter, with the most likely outcome being a Decision.

That said, Petrovic has the height and reach edge, so I lean toward her and I like the idea of accessing elite betting value with her +175 price tag.

Bet: Ivana Petrovic +175

UFC Fight Night 246 Fight Card